公司报告 | 季报点评 中远海控（601919） 证券研究报告 考虑到运价表现好于预期，船公司积极调整运力应对运量下滑，上调 2025-2026 年归母净利润预测至 277、203 亿元（原预测 209、137 亿 元），引入 2027 年预测归母净利润 137 亿元，维持"买入"评级。 Q1 业绩高增长，观察加关税影响 运价上涨推动 Q1 业绩高增长 2025Q1，中远海控营业收入 580 亿元，同比增长 20%；归母净利润 117 亿元，同比增长 73%。其中，集装箱航运业务收入 559 亿元，同比增长 20%；净利润 118 亿元，同比增长 87%，是公司业绩增长的主要驱动力。 集运业务业绩增长，主要来自运价上涨：2025Q1 集装箱航运业务的货运 量为 648 万 TEU，同比增长 7.5%；国际航线单箱收入 1311 美元，同 比上涨 12%，同期中国出口集装箱运价综合指数 CCFI 同比上涨 5%。但 是 4 月 CCFI 同比下跌 7%，中美加关税可能抑制货运需求、拖累运价。 集运供需紊乱，静观影响 美国引发的加关税已经导致跨太平洋航线货运量大幅减少，其他航线也有 影响。为了应对需求下滑，船公司 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The bank's non-interest income has shown significant improvement, contributing to revenue growth despite a slight decline in net interest income [1][2] - The bank's total interest-earning assets reached 17.45 trillion yuan, growing by 8.1% year-on-year, driven by credit and financial investments [2] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.91%, with a provision coverage ratio of 266% [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, Postal Savings Bank reported revenue of 89.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.07%, and a net profit of 25.4 billion yuan, down 2.62% year-on-year [1] - Non-interest income reached 20.5 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.83%, primarily driven by a recovery in fee and commission income [1] - The bank's net interest margin recorded at 1.70%, down 15 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 20 basis points year-on-year [2] Asset and Liability Management - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities amounted to 16.70 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase, with deposits growing by 9.2% [2] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is reported at 9.21%, down 35 basis points from the previous quarter [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted growth rates for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 1.23%, 3.98%, and 4.42% respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 8.82, 9.25, and 9.64 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a downward adjustment [5][4]. Core Views - The company continues to advance its automotive interior leather business, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Indonesia and Vietnam [2][4]. - The financial performance for Q1 2025 shows a revenue of 600 million, a year-on-year increase of 5%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 45% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, with an expected payout of 40 million, resulting in a payout ratio of 31% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the full year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million, down 24% year-on-year [1][4]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that leather for shoes and bags generated 2 billion, accounting for 68% of total revenue, while automotive interior leather contributed 700 million, representing 24% of total revenue [2]. - The gross margin for automotive interior leather improved by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 34% [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 150 million, 180 million, and 230 million respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised to 0.5, 0.6, and 0.8 yuan for 2025-2027 [4]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of international sports brands such as Adidas and COLEHAAN, indicating strong market positioning [2]. - The overseas revenue increased by 97% year-on-year, highlighting the potential for growth in international markets due to the investment in production capacity in Southeast Asia [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in performance, with a notable increase in sales volume and a rebound in rare earth prices. The revenue for Q1 2025 reached 728 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141% [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a core listed entity of the China Rare Earth Group, benefiting from substantial resource advantages, including exclusive mining rights in Hunan province [3]. - Profitability is on a recovery path, with a gross margin of 9.77% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.46% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 24% year-on-year, primarily due to falling rare earth prices. However, projections for 2025 and beyond indicate a recovery, with expected revenues of 3.47 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.43 billion yuan in 2026 [11][14]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -286.91 million yuan in 2024, but is projected to return to profitability with 285.61 million yuan in 2025 and 502.52 million yuan in 2026 [14][11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 15.75%, with expectations of improvement in subsequent years [15][14]. Sales and Production Insights - The sales volume of rare earth oxides and metals increased significantly in Q1 2025, with respective volumes of 6,512 tons and 1,906 tons, marking year-on-year increases of 80% and 142% [2]. - The company’s mining output reached 2,384 tons, with smelting and separation primarily conducted by its subsidiaries [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized for its unique resource advantages, being the only operator of ion-type rare earth mines in Hunan, and is classified as a "national green mine" [3]. - The company is actively working on exploration and mining efficiency improvements through partnerships, such as with Huaxia Jiyuan [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to benefit from its position within the China Rare Earth Group, with projected net profits of 286 million yuan in 2025, 503 million yuan in 2026, and 765 million yuan in 2027 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have declined further, with Q1 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% in revenue and 2.2% in net profit, reflecting a drop of 4.2 percentage points and 2.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) for Q1 2025 is 1.80%, a slight decrease of 2 basis points from 2024, indicating pricing pressure on mortgages [3] - Non-interest income has shown improvement, with net fee and commission income increasing by 8.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 13.2% in 2024 [3] - Asset quality remains relatively stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% as of Q1 2025, a slight increase from the previous quarter [4] - The company is expected to maintain a diversified business model with strengths in green banking, wealth management, and investment banking, leading to a projected net profit growth of -0.42%, 2.60%, and 3.33% from 2025 to 2027 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 557 billion yuan and a net profit of 238 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.58% and 2.22% respectively [1] - The total assets grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with loans and financial investments increasing by 4.8% and 11.7% respectively [2] Interest Margin and Income - The net interest income increased by 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, showing a slight improvement from the previous year's growth rate [2] - The NIM for Q1 2025 is 1.80%, with a decrease in the yield on interest-earning assets by 26 basis points to 3.18% compared to 2024 [3] Non-Interest Income - The net fee and commission income improved significantly, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, while other non-interest income saw a decline of 21.5% due to market fluctuations [3] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio increased slightly to 1.08% in Q1 2025, while the coverage ratio decreased to 233.42%, still above the average for joint-stock banks [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have a net profit of 769 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight decline expected, followed by growth in subsequent years [5]

资产端： 2025 年一季度建设银行生息资产总计 41.93 万亿元，同比增长 7.8%。其中，信贷投放和金融投资依旧是企业规模增长的主要动能，2025 一季度分别同比增长 8.0%、14.4%，环比增长 4.5%、5.8%；另外同业 资产环比高增 17.4%。生息资产结构上，贷款、金融投资、同业及拆放、 存放央行分别较 2024 年末变动-0.58、+0.08、+0.41、+0.09pct。 公司报告 | 季报点评 建设银行（601939） 证券研究报告 资负规模积极扩张，质量稳健 事件： 建设银行发布 2025 年一季度财报。公司实现营收约 1901 亿元， YoY-5.40%；归母净利润 834 亿元，YoY-3.99%；不良率 1.33%，拨 备覆盖率 237%。 点评： 2025 年一季度，建设银行营收 1901 亿元（YoY-5.40%），其中净利息 收入 1419 亿元（YoY-5.21%），占营收比重 74.7%；非息收入 481 亿 元，同比下降 5.96%。拨备前利润、归母净利润分别同比-5.81%、-3.99%。 非息收入方面。2025 年一季度，公司手续费及佣金收入 375 亿元，同比 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is cooling down, with trading activity indicators showing a decline, while asset linkage indicators suggest potential upward space in the market [2][4][18]. Group 1: Asset Linkage Indicators - The stock-bond relative yield is at a historical high, with the April 2025 figures at 1.59% and 0.96% for the two calculation methods, indicating a high comparative value of stocks over bonds [4][11]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is currently at 3.78%, above one standard deviation, suggesting a favorable risk-return profile for equities [4][17]. - The PE ratio for the Wind All A index is 18.5, with most broad indices below the 50th percentile historically, indicating relatively low valuations [4][18]. Group 2: Market Configuration Indicators - The valuation dispersion remains high, with the coefficient of variation at 0.862, indicating significant differences in stock valuations [4][20]. - The turnover rate has decreased to 1.51%, reflecting a decline in market activity, with historical data showing that lower turnover rates are associated with bearish market conditions [4][25]. - The proportion of stocks above the 50-week moving average has dropped to 64%, indicating a slight retreat in bullish sentiment among individual stocks [4][34]. Group 3: Market Trading/Sentiment Indicators - The maximum daily trading volume as a percentage of historical highs is at 50%, showing a cooling in market trading enthusiasm compared to previous peaks [4][28]. - The MACD for industries is at a historically high level, with 90% of industries showing positive trends, suggesting ongoing opportunities in various sectors [4][30]. - The shareholder buyback scale has significantly increased to 13.97 billion, indicating a strong commitment from companies to support their stock prices [4][37]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - The net reduction in industrial capital was 361 million in April 2025, a significant decrease from previous months, indicating a more cautious approach from major shareholders [4][41]. - The three major funding entities' indicator is at 0.07, reflecting a slight decline, with positive contributions from international intermediaries and financing balances [4][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a 6-month outlook [7] Core Views - The company's revenue improved due to non-interest income, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. Net interest income was 107.7 billion yuan, down 4.42% year-on-year, while non-interest income grew by 18.91% to 57.2 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of revenue growth [2][3] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 198% [3] - The bank's net interest margin recorded 1.29%, down 11 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 15 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the bank's total interest-earning assets amounted to 34.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. Loan and financial investment growth was 8.3% and 20.0%, respectively [3] - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities reached 31.59 trillion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, with deposits growing by 6.2% [3] - The bank's forecasted net profit for 2025 is expected to be 245.8 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.03% year-on-year, and projected growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 2.37% and 3.41%, respectively [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [7]. Core Insights - Agricultural Bank reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 186.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 0.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 71.9 billion RMB, up 2.20% year-over-year [1][2]. - Non-interest income showed significant growth, with a 24.7% year-over-year increase, contributing 46.1 billion RMB to total revenue [2]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.28%, with a provision coverage ratio of 298% [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, net interest income was 140.6 billion RMB, down 2.74% year-over-year, accounting for 75.3% of total revenue [2]. - The bank's total interest-earning assets reached 43.92 trillion RMB, growing 6.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.0% increase in loans and a 12.7% increase in financial investments [3]. - The bank's total liabilities were 40.96 trillion RMB, reflecting an 8.0% year-over-year increase, with deposits growing by 3.0% [3]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 11.23%, down 19 basis points from the previous quarter [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 2.25%, 4.12%, and 5.08%, respectively [5]. - The projected book value per share (BPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 7.95, 8.50, and 8.99 RMB, respectively [5].