行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 05 月 24 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 金属与材料 沪深300 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观情 绪 回 暖 ，看 好基 本 金属 向 上修 复 》 2025-05-18 2 《 金 属 与 材 料 - 行 业 深 度 研 究:24&25Q1 总结：资源端金&铜领涨， 材料端盈利大幅提升》 2025-05-13 3 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 05 月 24 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 金属与材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观情 绪 回 暖 ，看 好基 本 金属 向 上修 复 》 2025-05-18 2 《 金 属 与 材 料 - 行 业 深 度 研 究:24&25Q1 总结：资源端金&铜领涨， 材料端盈利大幅提升》 2025-05-13 3 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.932 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, and a net profit of 87.08 million yuan, up 60.88% year-on-year [1]. - The domestic market remains stable, with revenue from mainland China reaching 1.354 billion yuan, a growth of 1.76%, while international revenue surged to 579 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 298.91% [2]. - The total number of invisible orthodontic cases reached 359,400 in 2024, a growth of 46.7%, with overseas cases increasing by 326% to 141,000, accounting for 39.1% of global cases [3]. - The company is expanding its global business, operating in over 50 countries, and has plans to build a new manufacturing facility in Wisconsin, USA, to enhance local production capabilities [4]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and quality upgrades, launching various digital tools to assist doctors and improve production efficiency [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.932 billion yuan, a 28.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 87.08 million yuan, up 60.88% [1]. - Operating cash flow was 122 million yuan, a decline of 26.69% year-on-year [1]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the invisible orthodontics market in China, with stable domestic growth [2]. - The international market is a key growth driver, with overseas revenue significantly increasing [2]. Business Expansion - The number of invisible orthodontic cases grew to 359,400, with a notable increase in overseas cases [3]. - The company is enhancing its global presence and local operations, including a new manufacturing facility in the USA [4]. Innovation and Technology - The company is driving digital transformation and improving product quality through automation and digital tools [5]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.29 billion, 2.726 billion, and 3.225 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 88 million, 151 million, and 269 million yuan [5].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 因子跟踪周报：换手率、季度 sp 分位数因子表现较 好-20250524 因子 IC 跟踪 IC 方面，最近一周，1 个月日均换手率、1 个月换手率波动、1 个月非流 动性冲击等因子表现较好，Beta、1 月特异度、90 天分析师覆盖度等因子 表现较差；最近一月，小市值、1 个月非流动性冲击、1 个月反转等因子 表现较好，季度 ep、季度 roe、季度 roa 等因子表现较差；最近一年，小 市值、1 月特异度、Fama-French 三因子 1 月残差波动率等因子表现较 好，一年动量、股息率、季度 roe 等因子表现较差。 因子多头组合跟踪 多头组合方面，最近一周，1 个月非流动性冲击、1 个月日均换手率、90 天内预期调整均值等因子表现较好，Beta、业绩预告精确度、1 月特异度 等因子表现较差；最近一月，小市值、1 个月换手率与均价的相关性、1 个月日均换手率等因子表现较好，bp 三年分位数、业绩预告精确度、基 于一致预期的标准化预期外盈利等因子表现较差；最近一年，小市值、1 个月换手率波动、1 个月日均换手率等因子表现较好，90 天净上调预期占 比、9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.932 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87.08 million yuan, up 60.88% year-on-year [1]. - The domestic market remains stable, with revenue from mainland China reaching 1.354 billion yuan, a growth of 1.76% year-on-year, while international markets are a significant growth driver, with overseas revenue soaring to 579 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 298.91% year-on-year [2]. - The total number of invisible orthodontic cases reached 359,400 in 2024, marking a growth of 46.7% year-on-year, with overseas cases increasing from 33,000 in 2023 to 141,000 in 2024, a growth of 326% [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 1.932 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 87.08 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in profitability [1]. Market Performance - The domestic market remains solid, with a revenue increase of 1.76% in mainland China, while the international market has become a key growth engine, contributing to a 298.91% increase in overseas revenue [2]. Business Expansion - The number of invisible orthodontic cases grew significantly, with domestic cases increasing by 3.2% and overseas cases experiencing a dramatic rise of 326% [3]. Global Operations - The company is expanding its global presence, operating in over 50 countries, and enhancing local operations, including a new manufacturing facility in Wisconsin, USA [4]. Innovation and Digital Transformation - The company is focusing on digital tools to enhance treatment precision and is upgrading its manufacturing processes to improve efficiency and product quality [5]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.29 billion yuan, 2.726 billion yuan, and 3.225 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 88 million yuan, 151 million yuan, and 269 million yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price reflecting a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, achieving a total revenue of 6.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.86%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 715.59 million yuan, up 14.09% year-over-year [1]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, with revenue projections for 2025 set at 8.22 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.29% growth rate [4]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, with a net profit of 715.59 million yuan and a gross margin of 32.33%, which is a slight decrease of 2.11 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 18.34%, and a net profit of 241 million yuan, up 33.38% year-over-year [1]. Business Segmentation - The company’s revenue from grid automation in 2024 was 3.31 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.18%, with a gross margin of 41.54% [2]. - Revenue from power plant and industrial automation reached 3.12 billion yuan, marking a 25.35% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 25.48% [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its core business by targeting industry users and regional distribution markets, focusing on high-quality development in renewable energy and energy storage [3]. - The company aims to enhance its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, by strengthening local market strategies and expanding its product offerings [3]. - The data center segment is expected to contribute to growth, with the company providing core telecommunications equipment for major domestic data center projects [3]. Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 8.22 billion yuan, 9.43 billion yuan, and 10.75 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit projections of 856.96 million yuan, 993.13 million yuan, and 1.15 billion yuan [4]. - The company’s valuation is projected at 16X, 13X, and 12X PE for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative stock price return of over 20% within the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company reported strong Q1 FY25 results with revenue of $1.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and adjusted net income of $150 million, up 196% year-on-year [1]. - The company has raised its full-year guidance for FY25, projecting revenue growth of 15-17% and adjusted EPS of $0.67-$0.72 [3][4]. - The outdoor performance segment showed significant improvement, with the Greater China region leading growth at 43% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 FY25 revenue reached $1.5 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 58% and an adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) of 16% [1]. - Adjusted net income for Q1 was $150 million, translating to a diluted EPS of $0.27 [1]. Segment Performance - By category, technical apparel revenue was $700 million (+32% YoY), outdoor revenue was $500 million (+29% YoY), and racquet sports revenue was $300 million (+13% YoY) [2]. - By region, Greater China revenue grew by 43%, while the Americas and EMEA regions saw a 12% increase [2]. Store Expansion and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Growth - The company opened 220 technical apparel stores (+30 YoY) and 243 outdoor stores (+104 YoY), contributing to a DTC revenue increase of 39% [2]. - Same-store sales growth was 19% for technical apparel, 28% for outdoor, and 12% for racquet sports [2]. Revised Guidance - The company has adjusted its FY25 guidance upwards, now expecting revenue growth of 15-17% and an adjusted OPM of 11.5-12% [3]. - For Q2 FY25, the guidance includes revenue growth of 16-18% and an adjusted EPS of $0-$0.02 [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of $6 billion, $6.9 billion, and $7.9 billion for FY24, FY25, and FY26 respectively, with adjusted net income estimates of $380 million, $510 million, and $630 million [4]. - Corresponding EPS estimates are $0.69, $0.92, and $1.14 for FY24, FY25, and FY26 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative stock price return of over 20% within the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The company reported strong Q1 FY25 results with revenue of $1.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26% (at constant currency), and adjusted net income of $150 million, up 196% year-on-year [1]. - The company has raised its full-year guidance for FY25, projecting revenue growth of 15-17% year-on-year and adjusted EPS of $0.67-$0.72 [3][4]. - The outdoor performance segment showed significant improvement, with the Greater China region leading growth at 43% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 FY25 revenue reached $1.5 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 58% (up 3 percentage points year-on-year) and adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) of 16% (up 5 percentage points year-on-year) [1]. - Adjusted net income for Q1 was $150 million, translating to a diluted EPS of $0.27 [1]. Segment Performance - By category, technical apparel revenue was $700 million (up 32% year-on-year), outdoor revenue was $500 million (up 29% year-on-year), and racquet sports revenue was $300 million (up 13% year-on-year) [2]. - By region, revenue in the Americas grew by 12%, Greater China by 43%, EMEA by 12%, and Asia-Pacific by 49% [2]. Guidance and Projections - The company has adjusted its FY24-26 revenue forecasts to $6 billion, $6.9 billion, and $7.9 billion respectively, up from previous estimates of $5.2 billion, $6 billion, and $6.9 billion [4]. - Adjusted net income projections for FY24-26 are now $380 million, $510 million, and $630 million, respectively [4].

Group 1: Shipping Freight Index - The shipping index includes SCFI comprehensive index, SCFIS European route, and container index (European route) futures, which reflect the pricing of freight futures and the impact of tariffs [1][9][10] - The SCFI comprehensive index has shown a rebound since May 9, increasing by 9% compared to the end of March, influenced by export rush and transshipment [10][13] - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) has fluctuated this year, hitting a low on April 3 and then rebounding, with the CCFI comprehensive index increasing by 0.2% from its low as of May 16 [13][15] Group 2: Port Cargo Throughput - Domestic port cargo throughput has shown resilience, with container throughput reaching a record high on April 27, 2023, despite a brief decline earlier in the month [2][20][23] - The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest port in the U.S., saw its import container throughput drop to the lowest level since June 2024 by May 10, indicating negative impacts from tariffs on U.S. imports and exports [2][22][24] Group 3: Domestic Production Activity - The high-frequency economic activity index from the First Financial Research Institute has been declining since the end of March but remains above 1, indicating stronger economic activity compared to the previous year [3][27][29] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders index fell from 49% to 44.7%, while the EPMI production index dropped from 67.7% in March to 51.6% [29][30] Group 4: Trade Outlook - South Korea's Export Situation - South Korea's export data showed stronger-than-seasonal growth in early April, with fluctuations in mid-April likely related to trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][30][32] - By May, South Korea's exports were weaker than seasonal expectations, indicating ongoing volatility ahead of the conclusion of U.S.-Korea trade talks [4][32][34]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - Short-term focus on the new order cycle and accelerated delivery leading to improved capacity utilization and reduced variable costs, indicating a potential turnaround for companies in the sector [2] - Long-term attention on the reform dividends from equipment procurement and supply system changes, emphasizing the strategic importance of the types of equipment produced and the innovative leadership in processes, materials, and components [2] Summary by Sections 2024A & 2025Q1 Financial Analysis - The defense and military industry reported total revenue of 680.77 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decline of 2.09%, with a net profit of 24.22 billion yuan, down 38.69% year-over-year [5][9] - The first quarter of 2025 showed total revenue of 130.11 billion yuan, a decline of 2.84% year-over-year, with a net profit of 6.22 billion yuan, down 18.37% year-over-year [5][9] - The industry is expected to enter a new procurement cycle in 2025, following the resolution of negative factors affecting performance [5][9] Structural Differentiation - The recovery of the sector is accompanied by increasing structural differentiation among various sub-sectors and companies, with significant growth in missile-related operations and fixed assets maintaining over 10% growth [5][9] - The industry is characterized by a co-existence of downward cycles in performance and upward cycles in supply-side capabilities, indicating a solid long-term fundamental outlook [5][9] Key Companies to Watch - Companies to focus on include: - Aviation mainframe manufacturers: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Harbin Aircraft, AVIC Engine, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft [16][17] - New materials: Fushun Special Steel, Steel Research Institute, and others [19][20] - Military electronics: Huazhong University of Science and Technology, and others [21][22] - Missile manufacturers: North Navigation, and others [30][31] Financial Metrics - The overall gross margin for the defense and military sector was 19.77% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 3.56% [9][10] - The sector's fixed assets and construction in progress grew by 6.86% in 2024, indicating ongoing investment despite short-term challenges [14][26] Market Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards informationization and smart technologies, with new models expected to drive demand in the coming years [23] - The focus on military-civilian integration is expected to enhance the growth of new materials, with increasing penetration of military applications in civilian products [20]