- The "XinXuan ETF Absolute Return Strategy" aims to achieve both absolute returns and long-term relative returns compared to A-share equities by selecting ETFs from the XinXuan ETF pool. The strategy uses a "drawer method" to test equity ETFs in the market. Over the past three years, the strategy achieved an annualized return of 14.23%, a maximum drawdown of 8.6%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.44. From the beginning of 2024 to the present, the total return of the XinXuan ETF portfolio is 29.91%, with an excess return of 19.67% compared to equal-weighted ETFs. The Sharpe ratio is 1.18, the maximum drawdown is 6.3%, the volatility is 18.14%, and the Calmar ratio is 3.71. The best-performing ETF in the portfolio during this period is the ChiNext ETF, with a holding period return of 40.69%[11][12] - The "All-Weather Multi-Asset Multi-Strategy ETF Risk Parity Strategy" combines industry rotation, style rotation, and size rotation strategies to enhance the precision of ETF usage and maximize returns. It employs a risk parity approach to reduce overall portfolio volatility by effectively diversifying assets across different asset classes and strategies. The portfolio includes commodities (e.g., gold ETFs), U.S. equities (e.g., S&P 500 ETFs), domestic equities (e.g., industry/style/size rotation), and domestic bonds (e.g., 10-year and 30-year government bond ETFs). From the beginning of 2024 to the present, the strategy achieved a return of 17.51%, a maximum drawdown of 3.62%, a volatility of 4.5%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.45[14][16][17] - The "China-U.S. Core Asset Portfolio" integrates four strong-trend assets: Baijiu, dividend, gold, and Nasdaq ETFs. It combines the RSRS timing strategy for trend-following markets and technical reversal strategies to form a portfolio. From 2015 to the present, the annualized return of the portfolio is 33.77%, with an excess return of 14.19% compared to equal-weighted indices. The Sharpe ratio is 1.63, the maximum drawdown is 18.23%, and the volatility is 17.91%. The latest holding includes gold ETFs[20] - The "High Prosperity/Dividend Rotation Strategy" alternates between high-growth and dividend strategies based on signals. When the signal indicates high growth, the portfolio includes 50% ChiNext ETFs and 50% STAR 50 ETFs. When the signal indicates dividends, the portfolio includes 50% low-volatility dividend ETFs and 50% central enterprise dividend 50 ETFs. From the beginning of 2021 to the present, the annualized return of the strategy is 19.01%, with an excess return of 22.13% compared to equal-weighted indices. The Sharpe ratio is 0.85, the maximum drawdown is 22.91%, and the volatility is 24.43%. The latest holdings include low-volatility dividend ETFs and central enterprise dividend 50 ETFs (60% combined), as well as ChiNext ETFs and STAR 50 ETFs (40% combined)[23] - The "Dual Bond LOF Enhanced Strategy" adjusts the weights of bond-heavy portfolios and other products to ensure a higher proportion of bonds. The strategy uses the volatility of weekly returns to normalize weights, with bonds typically having lower volatility, thus increasing their weight. From 2019 to the present, the annualized return of the strategy is 6.81%, the Sharpe ratio is 2.55, the maximum drawdown is 2.42%, and the volatility is 2.58%, all outperforming the dual bond LOF benchmark[26] - The "Structured Risk Parity Strategy (QDII)" replaces the XinXuan ETF pool with a strategy pool that includes QDII products, domestic long-term bond ETFs, gold, and domestic dividend ETFs. From the beginning of 2024 to the present, the strategy achieved a return of 22.27%, a maximum drawdown of 2.38%, a volatility of 4.85, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.93[27][29] - **Backtest Results for Strategies** - XinXuan Technical Quantitative Strategy: Total return 29.91%, annualized return 23.33%, maximum drawdown -6.30%, volatility 18.11%, Sharpe ratio 1.13[32] - High Prosperity/Dividend Rotation Strategy: Total return 45.11%, annualized return 34.76%, maximum drawdown -22.04%, volatility 35.90%, Sharpe ratio 0.94[32] - China-U.S. Core Asset Portfolio: Total return 53.79%, annualized return 41.19%, maximum drawdown -10.86%, volatility 17.52%, Sharpe ratio 1.94[32] - Dual Bond Enhanced Strategy: Total return 8.64%, annualized return 6.86%, maximum drawdown -2.26%, volatility 3.51%, Sharpe ratio 1.34[32] - Structured Risk Parity Strategy (QDII): Total return 22.27%, annualized return 17.48%, maximum drawdown -2.38%, volatility 4.85, Sharpe ratio 2.93[32] - All-Weather Multi-Asset Risk Parity Strategy: Total return 17.51%, annualized return 13.80%, maximum drawdown -3.62%, volatility 4.50, Sharpe ratio 2.45[32]

分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：张倩 S1050124070037 zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 社零数据超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻 推荐(维持) 投资要点 2025 年 04 月 21 日 行业新闻：1）1-3 月四川白酒产量下降 5.4%。2)1.5 亿元保 健酒项目落户宝鸡。 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | 0.9 | 5.3 | -3.1 | | 沪深 300 | -3.6 | -1.6 | 6.5 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 2、《食品饮料行业周报：外围环境 持续承压，期待消费需求回暖》 2025-04-13 3、《食品饮料行业周报：关税靴子 落地，白酒 ...

2025 年 04 月 21 日 关注优质底仓大盘以及临期转债 ▌市场展望与策略推荐 美国目前的情况与互联网泡沫破裂时（2001 年）非常相似， 川普政府一系列逆全球化操作，也正是上述经济背景下看似 偶然、实则必然的结果。从不好的一面来看，中国实际经济 增速将受到一定程度的冲击，具体影响尚有待观察；从好的 一面来看，美国主打的科技的估值或将被重新进行系统性的 重估，而中国也迎来了历史性的机遇，如果我们不忘初心、 文化自信，西降东升或已开启，重点关注人民币汇率是否开 始逐步进入升值通道。债市方面，一年期国债收益率基本接 券 研 究 报 告 固 定 收 益 研 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《价值权益资产仍最具性价比— —资产配置周报》2025-04-20 2、《转债表现出较强估值保护》 2025-04-13 3、《看多价值——资产配置周报》 2025-04-13 投资要点 ▌ 股债、转债市场回顾 上周权益市场仍受关税政策反复影响，防御情绪偏强，整体 缩量震荡，银 ...

2025 年 04 月 21 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：47 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 47 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：跨境支付、虚拟电厂、农业 1、跨境支付主题：关税政策增加了贸易的不确定性和成 本，企业需要更高效、稳定的支付系统来应对复杂的贸易环 境。CIPS 系统功能不断丰富，业务量稳步增长，网络覆盖的 广度和深度持续提升，能够为跨境贸易、投融资、金融市场 交易等各类型业务提供安全、高效、便捷的人民币跨境支付 服务。相关标的：跨境通（002640）、青岛金王（002094） 2、虚拟电厂主题：近日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局 发布《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发展的指导意见》。其中提 到，到 2027 年，虚拟电厂建设运行管理机制成熟规范，参与 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [10][43]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards electrification and intelligent driving, with significant advancements in technology and product offerings from both joint ventures and domestic brands [8][9]. - The first humanoid robot marathon showcased advancements in humanoid robot technology, highlighting investment opportunities in core components such as actuators and control algorithms [6][10]. - The upcoming Shanghai International Auto Show is expected to feature new models and innovations, particularly in smart vehicle technology, which is becoming a key differentiator among manufacturers [8][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month decline of 13.8% compared to a 5.1% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [3][18]. - Over the past 12 months, the automotive sector has outperformed the market with a 17.3% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index only increased by 6.5% [3][19]. Investment Opportunities - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies involved in algorithms, control systems, motors, and cooling technologies, such as 德昌电机控股, 索辰科技, and 信捷电气 [6]. - Additionally, companies producing joint modules and linear actuators, such as 双林股份 and 嵘泰股份, are recommended for investment due to their critical role in humanoid robotics [6][10]. Upcoming Events - The Shanghai International Auto Show will take place from April 23 to May 2, 2025, with a focus on electric and intelligent vehicle technologies [8]. - Major automotive brands are expected to unveil new models and showcase advancements in smart driving capabilities, with a particular emphasis on local market adaptations [9]. Company Announcements - 双林股份 reported significant revenue growth of 18.64% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 514.49% [46]. - The company has developed new products for humanoid robots, including planetary roller screws and joint modules, which are expected to enter the market soon [47][49]. Market Trends - The report notes a steady increase in retail and wholesale volumes in the automotive market, driven by government policies promoting consumption [37][38]. - The report highlights the importance of both domestic and international demand in driving the automotive market's growth, particularly in the context of evolving consumer preferences and technological advancements [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards electrification and intelligent driving, with significant advancements in new models and technologies being showcased at the upcoming Shanghai Auto Show [9][10]. - The successful completion of the first humanoid robot marathon indicates substantial progress in humanoid robot technology, presenting investment opportunities in core components and algorithms [6][7]. Market Performance - The automotive sector has underperformed, with a 1-month decline of 13.8% compared to a 5.1% decline in the CSI 300 index [3][19]. - The automotive industry PE (TTM) is at 28.3, which is in the 15.7% percentile over the past four years, while the PB is at 2.6, in the 76.3% percentile [29]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong partnerships in intelligent driving and electrification, such as Seres, Jianghuai Automobile, and others [11][43]. - Investment opportunities in the humanoid robot sector include companies like Dual Lin Co., Best, and others involved in core components and algorithms [12][43]. Upcoming Events - The Shanghai International Auto Show is set to take place from April 23 to May 2, 2025, highlighting new models and technological advancements from various manufacturers [9][10]. Company Announcements - Dual Lin Co. reported significant revenue growth and profit increases, indicating strong performance in the automotive components sector [47]. - The report highlights the development of new products in humanoid robotics, including linear actuator modules and screw products, which are expected to drive future revenue [48][50].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve record highs in both revenue and net profit in 2024, with projected revenue of 11.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.72%, and a net profit of 9.610 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3]. - The "Miaoxiang" financial model, a significant innovation, has been integrated into the company's services, enhancing its capabilities in financial analysis and decision-making [4][6]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strong research and development capabilities to build a comprehensive internet wealth management ecosystem, which is expected to drive long-term growth [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.604 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.610 billion yuan, with significant growth in Q4 net profit of 35.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.66% [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.265 billion yuan, 14.653 billion yuan, and 16.485 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.66 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.80 yuan [7][9]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on an "AI + Finance" strategy, enhancing its technological capabilities to improve financial services and customer engagement [4][6]. - The integration of the "Miaoxiang" model into the company's operations is expected to streamline processes and improve efficiency in investment research and trading decisions [4]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic internet financial services sector, benefiting from a large user base and high user engagement [3][6]. - The report highlights the company's unique business model that combines various financial services, creating a robust competitive advantage in the market [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.21 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a net profit of 581 million yuan, up 9% from the previous year [5]. - The gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 68.12% due to price adjustments aimed at enhancing cost-effectiveness, while employee costs as a percentage of revenue decreased by 2 percentage points to 27.29% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - The company expanded its store network, with a total of 106 stores in first-tier cities and 291 in third-tier cities by the end of 2024, contributing to a 34% increase in revenue from the takeaway business [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.21 billion yuan, with a net profit of 581 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 15% and 9% respectively [5]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.58, 0.69, and 0.83 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [8][11]. Operational Efficiency - The company improved operational efficiency, leading to a reduction in employee costs as a percentage of revenue, while other operational costs such as utilities and advertising saw slight increases [6]. - The takeaway business revenue reached 2.00 billion yuan in 2024, driven by an increase in service outlets, while dine-in revenue was 3.19 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% increase [7]. Market Expansion - The company continued to expand its store presence, adding a net of 22, 40, 20, and 49 stores in first-tier, new first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities respectively by the end of 2024 [7]. - The average consumer spending in various city tiers decreased, indicating a strategic price adjustment to maintain competitiveness [7].

2025 年 04 月 20 日 价值权益资产仍最具性价比——资产配置周报 （2025-4-20） 相关研究 —固定收益周报 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 3 月实体部门负债增 速录得 8.3%，前值 8.4%，略低于我们之前的预期。预计 4 月 实体部门负债增速小幅反弹至 8.7%附近，3 月底 4 月初形成 年内高点，随后趋于下行，重回缩表。金融部门方面，上周 资金面边际上整体平稳。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出： "使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配"，这表明，稳定宏观杠杆率的大方向没 有任何动摇，中国仍然处于边际缩表过程之中，大规模化债 进一步降低了地方政府融资成本、以及发生大规模违约和流 动性风险的概率，有利于提升全社会的预期。按照两会公布 的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速将下降至 8%附 近。 财政政策。上周合计政府债（包括国债和地方债）净增加 5717 亿元（高于计划的净增加 4627 亿元），按计划本周政 府债净减少 692 亿元，2025 年 2 月末政府负债增速为 12.9%，前值 11.8%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with total revenue for 2024 reaching 32.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 294 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 83 million yuan in 2023 [4][6] - The company is expanding its store network significantly, with a total of 14,196 stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 9,470 stores from the beginning of the year. This expansion is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [6][7] - The company is focusing on developing a discount supermarket model, leveraging its strengths in supply chain management and product offerings to increase customer retention and average transaction value [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 11.72 billion yuan, up 167% year-on-year, with a net profit of 209 million yuan compared to a loss of 26 million yuan in Q4 2023. The gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 11.35% due to enhanced supply chain efficiency [4][5] Store Expansion and Business Strategy - The company is actively expanding its store count and has launched a new discount supermarket format centered around snacks. The snack retail business generated 31.79 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a 263% increase year-on-year [6][7] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability, with projected EPS of 3.44 yuan, 4.74 yuan, and 5.98 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33, 24, and 19 for the respective years [7][10]