证券研究报告 行业月度点评 证券Ⅱ 2025 年 03 月 16 日 评级 同步大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M 12M 证券Ⅱ 1.20 -6.17 27.29 沪深 300 2.60 1.87 12.15 -17% 3% 23% 43% 63% 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 | 周策 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530519020001 | | | zhouce67@hnchasing.com | | | 刘照芊 | 研究助理 | | liuzhaoqian@hnchasing.com | | 相关报告 1 证券行业深度：证券业并购潮起潮涌，复盘 剖析整合路径 2025-03-11 2 证券行业 2025 年 2 月月度报告：做好金融 五篇大文章，科技赋能行业高质量发展 2025- 02-18 3 证券行业点评：汇金接手三大 AMC 股权， 券商整合预期升温 2025-02-18 投资要点： 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 证券行业 2 月基本同步大市。上证综指 2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "In line with the market" [2][25] Core Viewpoints - The securities industry performed in line with the market in February, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.16% and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 1.91%. The Shenwan Securities Index rose by 2.14%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.02 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.23 percentage points [8][9] - The valuation of listed securities firms has improved, with the PB ratio reaching 1.42 times as of March 14, up by 0.18 times from the end of January. Large securities firms have a PB ratio of 1.43 times, while small and medium-sized firms have a PB ratio of 1.40 times [11] - Continuous capital market reforms are laying a solid foundation for the growth of the securities industry. Key points from the government work report include stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, promoting long-term capital inflows, and optimizing the stock issuance and merger restructuring systems [24][39] - The upcoming earnings disclosure period is expected to gradually realize profit expectations for the sector, with a focus on quality leading securities firms and merger and acquisition opportunities [25] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In February, the securities industry performed similarly to the market, with the Shenwan Securities Index ranking 20th among 31 industry indices [8][9] - The top five performing listed securities firms in February included China Galaxy (19.26%), Xinda Securities (19.07%), and CICC (13.12%) [10][13] Market Factors Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the two markets significantly increased, with a total trading amount of 32.56 trillion yuan in February, representing a 52% month-on-month increase [14] - The margin financing balance turned from decline to increase, with a net increase of 124.3 billion yuan in February [14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality leading securities firms and merger and acquisition opportunities. Recommended firms include CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities for their strong capital and innovative business layouts [25] - For merger and acquisition opportunities, the report highlights Guotai Junan, CICC, and China Galaxy as potential candidates [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% compared to the CSI 300 index [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a significant increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of 32.09 billion yuan in 2024, 40.74 billion yuan in 2025, and 49.35 billion yuan in 2026. Corresponding net profits are forecasted at 4.11 billion yuan, 4.96 billion yuan, and 6.09 billion yuan respectively [6][7]. - The company is actively expanding its global production capacity, particularly in North America, Vietnam, and Thailand, to mitigate risks from trade investigations and enhance its competitive edge in the market [6]. - The golf cart market is expanding, with the company leveraging its brand advantages and distribution channels to capture market share, particularly in North America [6]. Financial Projections - The company's main financial metrics show a steady growth trajectory, with projected earnings per share (EPS) increasing from 3.78 yuan in 2024 to 5.61 yuan in 2026. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 16.79 in 2024 to 11.32 in 2026, indicating improving valuation [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant expected growth in operating income from 21.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 40.74 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a robust growth strategy [7]. Recent Developments - The company anticipates a net profit of 4.05 to 4.45 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.40% to 58.66%. The fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to show a net profit growth of 36.84% to 89.47% [6]. - The company plans to invest up to 9.5 million USD in Thailand to establish a production base, which will support its expansion in Southeast Asia [6].

- The report introduces the "Caixin JinGong Three-Dimensional Sentiment Model," which is based on the Dow Theory's triple movement principle. It constructs a signal system from three dimensions: sentiment temperature, sentiment expectation, and sentiment concentration, corresponding to different market frequencies: high-frequency (days to weeks), medium-frequency (weeks to months), and low-frequency (months to years) [6][7][9] - The sentiment expectation dimension uses the futures basis rate and the inverse of the option's PCR (Put-Call Ratio) to reflect short-term market sentiment. The sentiment temperature dimension quantifies market fund activity using the main force buying rate. The sentiment concentration dimension measures the correlation of multiple assets in the A-share market using the first principal component variance contribution rate of the CITIC Level-3 industry index [7][8] - The model's application scenarios are diverse: it can serve as a risk warning tool, a risk preference indicator, or a guide for A-share equity position operations. High positions indicate low market risk, while low positions suggest high risk. The model helps investors control drawdowns in bear and volatile markets and optimize asset allocation [6][9] - The long-term performance of the Caixin JinGong Three-Dimensional Sentiment Strategy shows significant advantages over the HS300 holding strategy. From 2010 to 2025, the strategy achieved an annualized return of 6.0%, a maximum drawdown of 26.93%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.3969, compared to the HS300's 0.69% annualized return, 46.50% maximum drawdown, and 0.1288 Sharpe ratio [6][12][14] - The strategy's performance in specific years (2011, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2022, 2023, and 2024) consistently shows strong risk control and return potential. For example, in 2011, the strategy's maximum drawdown was 13.45% compared to HS300's 31.19%, and its annualized return was -3.32% compared to HS300's -26.41% [17][20][23][27][31][35][39] - The model's core logic is to dynamically adjust asset positions based on market sentiment changes, effectively controlling drawdowns in bear and volatile markets. It is designed for risk warning rather than actively creating alpha returns, making it perform better than the benchmark in bear and volatile markets but often underperform in bull markets due to conservative position adjustments [6][15][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in revenue and profit, with projected revenue of 32.09 billion yuan in 2024, 40.74 billion yuan in 2025, and 49.35 billion yuan in 2026. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.11 billion yuan in 2024, 4.96 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.09 billion yuan in 2026 [6][7] - The company is expanding its global production capacity, particularly in North America, Vietnam, and Thailand, to mitigate risks from trade investigations and enhance its competitive advantage in the golf cart market [6][7] - The company is leveraging its brand and distribution channels to capture market share in the North American golf cart market, which is expected to grow due to its recreational and low-speed transportation attributes [6][7] Financial Projections - The company's main revenue and profit projections are as follows: - 2022A: Revenue of 17.66 billion yuan, Net Profit of 2.06 billion yuan - 2023A: Revenue of 21.44 billion yuan, Net Profit of 2.80 billion yuan - 2024E: Revenue of 32.09 billion yuan, Net Profit of 4.11 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 40.74 billion yuan, Net Profit of 4.96 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 49.35 billion yuan, Net Profit of 6.09 billion yuan [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a P/E ratio of 16.79 in 2024, 13.91 in 2025, and 11.32 in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][7] - The projected price range for the stock in 2025 is between 72.96 and 82.08 yuan based on a P/E multiple of 16-18 times [6][7]

公司点评 深南电路(002916.SZ) | 2025 年 03 月 13 日 | | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 买入 | | | 评级变动 维持 | | 交易数据 | | | 当前价格（元） | 127.07 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 83.01-160.55 | | 总市值（百万） | 65171.35 | | 流通市值（百万） | 65003.21 | | 总股本（万股） | 51287.75 | | 流通股（万股） | 51155.43 | 涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M 12M 深南电路 -6.44 28.31 43.58 元件 2.04 11.69 45.88 何晨 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 hechen@hnchasing.com 袁鑫 研究助理 -12% 38% 88% 138% 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 深南电路 元件 yuanxin@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 深南电路 2024 年三季报点评：营收保持高增 长，新项目爬坡拉低利润增速 2024-10-29 2 深南电路 2024 年半年报点 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% compared to the CSI 300 index [2][11]. Core Insights - The electric two-wheeler industry is experiencing improvements in both supply and demand, with a significant increase in the company's store count and revenue despite an overall industry decline [7][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 141.40 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 38.63%, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, reflecting an 81.90% increase [7][8]. - The introduction of new smart systems and innovative products is enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [7][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 141.40 billion yuan in 2024, 173.21 billion yuan in 2025, and 204.77 billion yuan in 2026 [6][8]. - The expected net profits are projected to be 10.53 billion yuan in 2024, 14.11 billion yuan in 2025, and 17.99 billion yuan in 2026 [6][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.47 yuan in 2024, 1.97 yuan in 2025, and 2.51 yuan in 2026 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The electric two-wheeler market is set to benefit from government policies promoting trade-in programs and increased subsidies, which are expected to stimulate consumer demand [7][8]. - The company is expanding its product lines, including robotic lawn mowers and all-terrain vehicles, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [7][8]. Valuation - The report suggests a reasonable price range for the company's stock between 68.95 and 78.80 yuan based on a projected P/E ratio of 35-40 times for 2025 [8].

Performance Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 7.92% over the last 60 days and 2.02% year-to-date[3] - The China Securities Fund Index has risen by 3.31% over the last 60 days and 1.33% year-to-date[3] - Stock funds have shown a 9.08% increase over the last 60 days and 3.80% year-to-date, while mixed funds have increased by 8.30% and 4.58% respectively[3] - Bond funds have decreased by 0.32% in both the last 60 days and year-to-date[3] ETF Market Insights - There are over 70 listed science and technology ETFs with a total scale of nearly 3000 billion yuan, with the Sci-Tech 50 ETF accounting for over 60% of this scale[4][8] - The largest single fund is the Huaxia Sci-Tech 50 ETF, with a scale exceeding 900 billion yuan, representing about 31% of the total Sci-Tech ETF market[4][9] Sector Analysis - The Sci-Tech 50 Index is recommended for focus due to its strong market performance, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and aerospace equipment[5][13] - The Sci-Tech Chip Index shows a higher risk-reward ratio, favoring investments in semiconductor equipment and materials[5][16] - The Sci-Tech Biotech Index reflects a significant portion of the Sci-Tech board, with approximately 18% of companies in the biotech sector[19] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include changes in index compilation methods, underperformance of the macro economy, and escalation of US-China trade tensions[26] - Historical data does not guarantee future performance, and non-principal-protected products may face extreme scenarios where capital recovery is not assured[26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with the rating maintained [1][10] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand in the AI-related industry for PCB products, and the strong domestic substitution demand for packaging substrates [8] - The company's PCB business achieved a revenue of 104.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.99% [6] - The packaging substrate business generated a revenue of 31.71 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 37.49% [6] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023A is 135.26 billion yuan, increasing to 179.07 billion yuan in 2024A, and expected to reach 215.05 billion yuan in 2025E [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 13.98 billion yuan in 2023A to 18.78 billion yuan in 2024A, and further to 27.01 billion yuan in 2025E [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 2.73 yuan in 2023A to 3.66 yuan in 2024A, and to 5.27 yuan in 2025E [9] Business Performance - The company's PCB business is experiencing steady growth, driven by demand in the communication, data center, and automotive electronics sectors [6][7] - The gross margin for the PCB business in 2024 was 31.62%, an increase of 5.07 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The packaging substrate business is focusing on capability building and market development, with new product introductions ongoing [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% compared to the CSI 300 index [2][11]. Core Insights - The electric two-wheeler industry is experiencing improvements in both supply and demand, driven by new regulations and government incentives [7]. - The company has shown robust growth in its electric two-wheeler business, with a significant increase in store numbers and revenue despite a general industry decline [7]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in robotic lawn mowers and all-terrain vehicles, which are expected to contribute to future growth [8]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 141.40 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 38.63%, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, reflecting an 81.90% increase [7]. - Forecasted revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 173.21 billion yuan and 204.77 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.11 billion yuan and 17.99 billion yuan [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.47 yuan in 2024 to 2.51 yuan in 2026 [8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant growth over the past year, with a 95.67% increase over 12 months [4]. - The current stock price is 59.38 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 27.33 to 62.03 yuan [2].