证券研究报告 电力设备 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 20 日 1-2 月电力数据：风电出力环比加快，用电增速同比+1.3% ——行业动态点评报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 执业证书编号：S0230524080001 行业动态研究 表：重点关注公司及盈利预测 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 2025/03/20 | | EPS（元） | | | | PE | | | 投资 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 股价（元） | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 评级 | | 600011.SH | 华能国际 | 6.93 | 0.54 | 0.83 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 买入 | | 600027.SH | 华电国际 | 5. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Views - In the first two months of 2025, the newly installed capacity for photovoltaic (PV) reached 39.47 GW, a year-on-year increase of 7%. As of the end of February 2025, the total installed capacity for PV was 930 million kW, up 42.9% year-on-year [5] - For wind power, the newly installed capacity in the same period was 9.28 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. The total installed capacity for wind power reached approximately 530 million kW, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year [5] - The report indicates that the demand for new energy installations is expected to continue to grow in the long term, with future consumption pressure likely to be alleviated through energy storage and virtual power plants [5] Summary by Sections Installed Capacity Data - Photovoltaic: 39.47 GW added in January-February 2025, +7% year-on-year; total capacity 930 million kW, +42.9% year-on-year [5] - Wind Power: 9.28 GW added in January-February 2025, -6% year-on-year; total capacity approximately 530 million kW, +17.6% year-on-year [5] Investment Data - Power investment in January-February increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while grid investment rose by 33.5% year-on-year. The cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment was 505 hours, a decrease of 61 hours compared to the same period last year [5] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading PV companies such as Longi Green Energy, Aiko Solar, JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, and TCL Zhonghuan. Additionally, it is suggested to focus on profitable inverter and energy storage segments, including Sungrow Power Supply, DeYe Shares, and Shangneng Electric. Virtual power plant business targets include Guoneng Rixin and Anke Rui [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook due to the gradual recovery in cement demand and rising prices, which are expected to enhance industry profitability [4]. Core Insights - Cement demand is slowly recovering, with national cement enterprise shipment rates reaching 43%, a slight increase of less than 5 percentage points month-on-month. Southern regions are seeing shipment rates of 50-70%, while northern regions are just starting to see demand, with rates between 10-40% [4][13]. - Cement prices continue to rise as companies respond to national policies promoting self-discipline and staggered production, aiming to improve financial conditions. The report highlights key companies to watch, including Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [4][6]. - The glass industry is experiencing a decline in prices due to sluggish demand and increasing inventory levels, with the market expected to see further price drops in the near term [31][33]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The report notes a 1.6% increase in national cement prices week-on-week, with significant price hikes in East, Central, and Southwest regions. The report emphasizes the importance of self-discipline among cement companies to stabilize prices [13][15]. - The report highlights that the overall shipment rates for cement are still low in northern regions, while southern regions are recovering better. The report also mentions that environmental regulations are still affecting project progress, which could impact demand [14][20]. Glass Industry - The report indicates that the average price of float glass has decreased to 1283 RMB/ton, with a continued downward trend expected due to weak demand and rising inventory levels. The report suggests that the market is facing supply-demand imbalances, leading to price reductions [31][33]. - The report also notes that production lines are stable, but the overall market sentiment remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream industries [31][33]. Real Estate Market - The report observes a recovery in the real estate market, with transaction volumes and prices stabilizing. This improvement is expected to positively influence the demand for building materials [37]. - The report highlights that the sales area and sales revenue of new and second-hand homes have shown a narrowing decline, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook due to the gradual recovery in cement demand and rising prices, which are expected to enhance industry profitability [4]. Core Insights - Cement demand is slowly recovering, with national cement enterprise shipment rates reaching 43%, a slight increase of less than 5 percentage points month-on-month. Southern regions are seeing shipment rates of 50-70%, while northern regions are just starting to see demand, with rates at 10-40% [4][13]. - The national cement price continues to rise, driven by industry self-discipline and peak production adjustments in response to the government's "anti-involution" policy. This price increase aims to alleviate losses faced by enterprises [4][13]. - The glass industry is experiencing a decline in demand, with floating glass prices dropping and inventory levels increasing. The overall market is characterized by weak demand and price flexibility [4][31]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement market is witnessing a gradual recovery in demand, with a national shipment rate of 43% and regional variations where southern enterprises are performing better than northern ones [4][13]. - Prices are on an upward trend, with increases of 20-40 CNY/ton in various regions, as companies implement peak production strategies and price hikes to improve profitability [4][13][15]. - Key companies to watch include Huanxin Cement (600801.SH), Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), and Conch Cement (600585.SH) [4]. Glass Industry - The floating glass market is facing challenges, with prices declining and overall demand sluggish. The average price of floating glass is reported at 1283 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week [31]. - Inventory levels are rising, with total stock reaching 7025.7 million weight boxes, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [31][33]. - The market outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued price declines due to weak demand and high inventory levels [31][33]. Real Estate and Construction Materials - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline in sales volume and prices. This improvement is expected to positively impact the demand for construction materials [39]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in consumer demand for building materials, driven by improving market confidence and a gradual recovery in the real estate sector [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][22]. Core Insights - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference is expected to catalyze interest in areas such as agent-based AI, robotics, and accelerated computing, with a focus on domestic AI technology [4][16]. - The report highlights the increasing attention on domestic AI industries following the introduction of China AI Day at the NVIDIA conference, which aims to enhance the influence of domestic AI in various sectors [4][16]. - The report emphasizes the optimistic capital expenditure outlook for major domestic companies, predicting a significant increase in inference computing power, which is directly linked to AI applications [20][22]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From March 10 to March 14, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index declined by 1.36%, with notable gainers including Zhisheng Information and Hongquan Internet, while losers included Yonyou Network and Deepin Technology [9]. Industry News - Baidu released its Wenxin large model 4.5 and X1, introducing new capabilities for advanced search and AI drawing, with pricing set for API usage [14]. - OpenAI launched new tools to simplify the development of intelligent agents, indicating a trend towards more accessible AI development [14]. Key Company Announcements - Daotong Technology expects a net profit of 180 to 200 million yuan for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 44.29% to 60.32% [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic cloud computing companies such as Inspur Information and Yunsai Zhili, as well as AI application firms like Yonyou Network and Dingjie Zhizhi, and quantum technology companies like Guodun Quantum [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][22]. Core Insights - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference is expected to catalyze interest in areas such as agent-based AI, robotics, and accelerated computing, with a focus on domestic AI technology [4][16]. - The report highlights the increasing attention on domestic AI industries following the introduction of China AI Day at the NVIDIA conference, which aims to enhance the influence of domestic AI in various sectors [4][16]. - The report emphasizes the optimistic capital expenditure outlook for major domestic companies, predicting a significant increase in the proportion of inference computing power by 2026 [20][22]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From March 10 to March 14, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index declined by 1.36%, with notable gainers including Zhisheng Information and Hongquan Internet, while losers included Yonyou Network and Deepin Technology [9]. Industry News - Baidu released its Wenxin large model 4.5 and X1, introducing new capabilities for advanced search and AI drawing, with pricing set for API usage [14]. - OpenAI launched new tools to simplify the development of intelligent agents, indicating a trend towards more accessible AI development [14]. Key Company Announcements - Daotong Technology expects a net profit of 180 to 200 million yuan for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 44.29% to 60.32% [15]. - Zhongcheng Technology signed a contract with China Mobile for a private cloud service project valued at 160 million yuan [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic cloud computing companies such as Inspur Information and Yunsai Zhili, as well as AI application firms like Yonyou Network and Dingjie Zhizhi, and quantum technology companies like Guodun Quantum [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [2][8]. Core Viewpoints - Supply is slightly increasing while demand continues to recover, indicating a positive trend for the steel industry [4][54]. - The report highlights that the industry is expected to maintain stability supported by the real estate sector and manufacturing [8]. - The need for industry consolidation and the exit of outdated capacity has been recognized, leading to an increase in industry concentration and a shift towards high-quality product development [8]. Supply Summary - As of March 14, 2025, the total output of the five major steel products reached 8.5321 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.27% and a year-on-year increase of 0.50% [4][15]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3059 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a year-on-year increase of 4.42% [4][15]. - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 86.57%, up 0.03 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.99 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. Demand Summary - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.8388 million tons as of March 14, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.61% and a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [4][20]. - The daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 119,100 tons, showing a significant week-on-week increase of 32.29% [4][20]. - Monthly steel exports totaled 9.727 million tons, remaining stable month-on-month and increasing by 11.24% year-on-year [4][20]. Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of the five major steel products was 13.1991 million tons, down 1.47% week-on-week and down 24.99% year-on-year [4][29]. - The total factory inventory was 5.0971 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.12% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.71% [4][29]. Cost Summary - As of March 14, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 780.6 CNY/wet ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.13% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.85% [4][42]. - The comprehensive price index for scrap steel was 2508.77 CNY/ton, down 0.90% week-on-week and down 13.86% year-on-year [4][42]. - The price index for low-sulfur coking coal was 1281.28 CNY/ton, down 1.23% week-on-week and down 36.94% year-on-year [4][43]. Price Summary - The Mysteel ordinary steel absolute price index was 3575.89 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.04% [4][45]. - The Mysteel special steel absolute price index was 9402.63 CNY/ton, down 0.33% week-on-week and down 3.24% year-on-year [4][45]. - The global steel price index was reported at 205 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.43% [4][45].

Group 1 - The report highlights that social financing maintains a rapid growth, with the total social financing stock reaching 417.29 trillion yuan by the end of February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [4][8] - Government bonds have seen an increase in growth rate, with the balance of government bonds at 83.47 trillion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, accounting for 20% of the total financing [4][8] - The report indicates that the increase in financing to the real economy includes 5.87 trillion yuan in RMB loans, which is an increase of 548 billion yuan year-on-year [4][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the market is driven by policy changes, with significant gains in major indices due to policy catalysts, particularly in the consumer sector such as food and beverage, retail, and automotive [11][12] - The implementation of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" is expected to release consumption potential and expand domestic demand [11][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of basic data feedback, indicating that major indices have risen, driven by policy expectations and improved fundamentals [12][14] Group 3 - The report identifies key industry and thematic configurations, focusing on domestic demand, real estate chains, and independent technological innovation and advanced manufacturing [15][18] - It highlights that the manufacturing sales revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, while high-tech industry sales revenue increased by 10.6% [15][18] - The report also mentions the significant growth in excavator sales, with a year-on-year increase of 52.8%, and a notable rise in domestic automobile production and sales [15][18] Group 4 - The report provides market data, indicating that major indices have shown positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a fluctuation of 1.39% [12][21] - It includes a detailed analysis of industry and concept index performance, showing that various sectors have experienced significant gains [23][24] - The report also presents valuation metrics, indicating the price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios for various indices, highlighting the valuation levels across different sectors [30][32]

Group 1 - The report highlights that social financing maintains a rapid growth, with the total social financing stock reaching 417.29 trillion yuan by the end of February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [4][8] - Government bonds have seen an increase in growth rate, with the balance of government bonds at 83.47 trillion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, accounting for 20% of the total financing [4][8] - The report indicates that the increase in financing to the real economy includes 5.87 trillion yuan in RMB loans, 615.6 billion yuan in corporate bond net financing, and 2.39 trillion yuan in government bond net financing during the first two months of 2025 [4][8] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market changes, noting that the market experienced significant gains due to policy catalysts, particularly in the consumer sector, including food and beverage, retail, and automotive industries [11][12] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" is expected to release consumption potential and expand domestic demand, particularly in the consumer sector [11][18] - The report identifies key sectors for investment focus, including household appliances and automobiles, as well as the real estate chain, which is supported by government measures to stabilize the housing market [18][15] Group 3 - The report provides data on the performance of major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a range of 1.39% increase, and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 1.59% during the observed period [12][14] - It notes that the manufacturing sector's sales revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, while high-tech industries saw a 10.6% increase in sales revenue from October 2024 to February 2025 [15][18] - The report also highlights the significant growth in the excavator market, with sales of various types of excavators reaching 19,270 units in February, a year-on-year increase of 52.8% [15][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [2][8] Core Viewpoints - Supply is slightly increasing while demand continues to recover, indicating a positive trend for the steel industry [4][54] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality supply leading to demand, with a focus on industry restructuring and capacity reduction [8][51] Supply Summary - As of March 14, 2025, the total production of five major steel products reached 8.5321 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.27% and a year-on-year increase of 0.50% [4][15] - The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3059 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a year-on-year increase of 4.42% [4][15] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel enterprises was 86.57%, up 0.03 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.99 percentage points year-on-year [4][15] Demand Summary - The total consumption of five major steel products reached 8.8388 million tons as of March 14, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 3.61% and a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [20][22] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel from mainstream traders was 119,100 tons, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase of 32.29% [20][22] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products was 13.1991 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.99% [29][30] - The total factory inventory of five major steel products was 5.0971 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.12% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.71% [29][31] Cost Summary - As of March 14, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 780.6 RMB/wet ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.85% [42][44] - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2508.77 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.86% [42][43] Price Summary - The Mysteel ordinary steel absolute price index was 3575.89 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.04% [45][46] - The Mysteel special steel absolute price index was 9402.63 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.24% [45][46]