Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% in the week from February 2 to February 6, ranking last among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant drop of 17.38%, while industrial metals fell by 9.49% [1][14] - The market is currently in a low-risk environment characterized by "Wash Trading," leading to continued high volatility in precious metals. The report remains optimistic about gold's upward momentum in the context of expansive monetary policies, while silver's performance will depend on changes in physical asset holdings [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 8.51%, underperforming the index by 7.24 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced declines, with precious metals down 17.38%, industrial metals down 9.49%, and energy metals down 3.59% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper decreased, with LME copper at $13,060 per ton (down 0.08%) and SHFE copper at ¥100,100 per ton (down 3.45%). Increased inventories in Shanghai, New York, and London are pressuring prices [2][31][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fell to $3,110 per ton (down 0.81%), and SHFE aluminum prices dropped to ¥23,315 per ton (down 5.07%). The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to further increase inventory levels [3][36][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices rose slightly to $3,383 per ton (up 0.39%), while SHFE zinc prices fell to ¥24,450 per ton (down 5.36%). Inventory levels showed mixed trends [40] - **Tin**: LME tin prices fell to $47,155 per ton (down 6.81%), and SHFE tin prices dropped to ¥357,000 per ton (down 12.71%). Increased supply from traders has led to a more relaxed market [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce (up 1.65%), while SHFE gold closed at ¥1,090.12 per gram (down 6.14%). Despite weak labor market data in the U.S., the market remains in a low-risk environment, supporting gold's potential for further gains [4][50][51] - **Silver**: The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in silver holdings to assess the impact of physical asset shortages on the futures market [4][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% in the week from February 2 to February 6, ranking last among all primary industries. Precious metals saw a significant drop of 17.38%, while industrial metals fell by 9.49% [1][14] - The market is currently in a low-risk environment characterized by "Wash Trading," with cross-asset sell-offs affecting precious metals, which continue to exhibit high volatility. The report remains optimistic about gold's upward momentum in the context of expansive monetary policies [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27%, with the non-ferrous metals sector underperforming by 7.24 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals declined, with precious metals leading the drop [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices for copper decreased, with LME copper at $13,060 per ton (down 0.08%) and SHFE copper at ¥100,100 per ton (down 3.45%). Increased inventories across major markets are pressuring prices [2][31][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fell to $3,110 per ton (down 0.81%) and SHFE aluminum to ¥23,315 per ton (down 5.07%). The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to further suppress demand [3][36][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices increased slightly to $3,383 per ton (up 0.39%), while SHFE zinc prices fell to ¥24,450 per ton (down 5.36%) [40] - **Tin**: LME tin prices dropped significantly to $47,155 per ton (down 6.81%), with SHFE tin at ¥357,000 per ton (down 12.71%) due to increased market supply [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce (up 1.65%), while SHFE gold was at ¥1,090.12 per gram (down 6.14%). Despite weak labor market data in the U.S., the market remains in a low-risk environment, supporting gold's potential for further gains [4][50][51] - **Silver**: The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in silver positions to assess the impact of physical asset shortages on the futures market [4][51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the passenger vehicle sector, driven by the implementation of subsidy policies and a shift in consumer demand. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers that are less sensitive to policy fluctuations, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Geely [25][26]. - In the heavy truck segment, the report anticipates a positive outlook for 2026, projecting domestic sales to reach 800,000 to 850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [30][28]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the continuation of subsidy policies [30][29]. - The motorcycle sector is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a significant focus on the large-displacement motorcycle market [26]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - Short-term recovery is anticipated in the passenger vehicle sector due to established subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and companies less affected by policy changes [25][26]. - Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD, among others [25]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 1.144 million units, a 26.8% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 799,000 units, up 32.8% [30]. - The report recommends leading heavy truck manufacturers such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30][28]. Buses - The bus market saw a slight decline in 2025, with sales of 29,000 units, down 6% year-on-year. However, a rebound is expected in 2026, with a projected 40% increase in sales [30][29]. - Recommended companies include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is forecasted to grow, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, driven by large-displacement models [26]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [26].

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-10 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20260208：1 月美国非农和 CPI 前瞻：关注上行风险——海外 宏观与交易复盘 核心观点：本周（2 月 2-8 日）在美股 AI 软件泡沫担忧引发的科技股大 跌、及随后的动量抛售等交易因素造成的流动性冲击下，海外权益、大宗 商品和比特币等资产经历剧烈波动。我们认为，近期资本市场的流动性冲 击更多来自交易层面，而海外宏观基本面和广义流动性环境并未有显著 变化，这意味着部分资产存在被流动性冲击"错杀"的可能。关注下周公 布的 1 月美国非农就业和 CPI 数据，我们预期二者均存在上行风险，令 本周略有升温的美联储降息预期再度面临回调。 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208：预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社 融小幅同比多增 晨会编辑 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 [Table_Tag] 节前经济供需两端基本符合季节性特征 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the passenger vehicle sector, driven by the implementation of subsidy policies and a shift in consumer demand. The focus is on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers that are less sensitive to policy fluctuations, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Geely [25][26]. - In the heavy truck segment, the report anticipates a positive outlook for 2026, with domestic sales expected to reach 800,000 to 850,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [30][28]. - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an estimated 40,000 units sold, a 40% increase year-on-year, supported by the continuation of subsidy policies [30][29]. - The motorcycle sector is expected to see total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with a significant rise in large-displacement motorcycles [26][27]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report emphasizes a recovery in the passenger vehicle market, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and companies that are less affected by policy changes. Key players include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [25][26]. Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market had a strong performance in 2025, with wholesale sales of 1.144 million units, a 26.8% increase year-on-year. The report forecasts a stable outlook for 2026, with domestic sales expected to reach 800,000 to 850,000 units [30][28]. Buses - The bus market is expected to grow in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase. This growth is attributed to the continuation of subsidy policies [30][29]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to see significant growth [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned to benefit from the differentiation of flavor types, national expansion, and a multi-price product strategy, with significant growth potential projected [13][20] - The company aims to achieve revenue visibility of 600-700 billion RMB in the medium to long term, with a focus on the growth of its core products [14][19] Summary by Sections 1. National Expansion and Market Position - The report highlights the strong momentum of the national expansion of the Qingxiang Fenjiu brand, with significant growth potential in market share [20] - The company has successfully established a solid foundation in its home market of Shanxi, which supports its expansion into other regions [33][38] 2. Product Strategy and Core Offerings - Shanxi Fenjiu has a diverse product portfolio across various price segments, which enhances its growth potential and resilience against market fluctuations [51] - The company has introduced a "professional operation, four-wheel drive" strategy to optimize resource allocation among its key product lines [53] 3. Channel Management and Organizational Efficiency - The report notes improvements in channel management and the effectiveness of the sales team, which contribute to the company's operational efficiency [19][40] - The introduction of the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" system aids in fine-tuning channel control and maintaining price stability [19][30] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 41.66 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [1] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 shows a gradual increase, with estimates of 12.25 billion RMB in 2025 and 13.72 billion RMB in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a leading brand in the clear aroma liquor segment, benefiting from differentiated flavor profiles, national expansion, and a multi-price product strategy, with a significant growth potential projected to reach 600-700 billion RMB in revenue in the medium to long term [13][14] - The company is actively exploring brand rejuvenation and targeting younger consumers through innovative marketing strategies and product offerings [22][28] - The nationalization strategy 2.0 is being implemented, focusing on deepening market penetration and optimizing product management across various regions [30][33] Summary by Sections 1. Clear Aroma Liquor Expansion - The clear aroma liquor segment is expected to grow significantly, with Shanxi Fenjiu's market share projected to increase from 0.7% to 4.5% from 2016 to 2024 [20] - The company is targeting a "three-way split" market structure in the next high-end price segment, with substantial growth opportunities identified [20][21] 2. Multi-Price Product Strategy - Shanxi Fenjiu has a diverse product portfolio across various price segments, which enhances its growth potential and resilience against market fluctuations [51] - The company has introduced a "four-wheel drive" strategy for product management, focusing on key product lines to optimize resource allocation [53][54] 3. Channel Management and Organizational Efficiency - The company has refined its channel management through the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" system, which enhances pricing stability and incentivizes sales performance [19][30] - Shanxi Fenjiu's sales team remains stable, with a clear career progression path that fosters motivation and productivity among frontline sales personnel [19][30] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 37,875 million RMB in 2026, and net profit projected at 12,416 million RMB [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from 10.04 RMB in 2024 to 10.18 RMB in 2026, reflecting a positive outlook for profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The Jilin Green Power Direct Connection Project is under public consultation, aiming for a minimum of 30% self-consumed electricity by 2030, increasing to 35% for new projects [4][6] - The State Grid has announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on green energy transition [4][6] - The average electricity purchase price in January 2026 decreased by 8% year-on-year [4][38] - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 695 yuan per ton as of February 6, 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 7.70% [4][46] - The inflow to the Three Gorges Reservoir increased by 65.3% year-on-year, while the outflow decreased by 5.3% [4][54] Industry Data Tracking Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in 2025 was 10.37 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [4][13] - The growth rates for different sectors were: primary industry +9.9%, secondary industry +3.7%, tertiary industry +8.2%, and urban-rural residential +6.3% [4][13] Power Generation - Total power generation in 2025 was 9.72 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [4][20] - The growth rates for different power sources were: thermal power -1.0%, hydropower +2.8%, nuclear power +7.7%, wind power +9.7%, and solar power +24.4% [4][20] Installed Capacity - New installed capacity in 2025 included: thermal power +94.5 million kW (up 63.8%), hydropower +12.15 million kW (down 11.9%), nuclear power +1.53 million kW, wind power +120.48 million kW (up 50.9%), and solar power +317.51 million kW (up 14.2%) [4][58] Investment Recommendations - For green power, focus on companies like Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and Three Gorges Energy, with a strong recommendation for Longjing Environmental Protection [4] - For thermal power, consider Huaneng International and Huadian International [4] - For hydropower, Longjiang Power is highlighted due to its low cost and strong cash flow [4] - For nuclear power, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are recommended due to their growth potential [4] - For solar assets and charging pile assets, companies like Southern Power Grid Energy and Longxin Technology are suggested [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JunDa Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - JunDa Co., Ltd. has acquired a 60% stake in the satellite company XunTian QianHe, which covers the entire chain of satellite development, communication, remote sensing, data processing, and system integration [7] - The core team has strong capabilities with over 50 satellite orders in hand and aims to produce hundreds of satellites annually through automation [7] - The company plans to enhance its satellite computing power research and aims to capture 10%-20% of the domestic satellite market [7] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of -1.27 billion in 2025, followed by 471 million in 2026 and 1.04 billion in 2027, reflecting a recovery trend [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 18.657 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 60.90% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 815.64 million in 2023, with a growth rate of 13.77% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 2.79 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 30.22 [1] - The company anticipates a significant drop in revenue in 2024 to 9.952 billion, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the North American electricity sector, particularly focusing on gas turbines and related technologies due to the ongoing electricity shortage driven by AI data center demands [2][6][30]. Core Insights - The North American electricity shortage is characterized by a contradiction between the non-linear growth of AI electricity demand and the aging infrastructure of the power grid. The demand side sees a surge in AIDC projects, while the supply side faces challenges with declining stable supply and regional electricity shortages [2][6][24]. - The report highlights that gas turbines are currently the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power generation, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation serving as effective supplements [2][37]. - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) predicts an average peak electricity gap of over 20GW from 2027 to 2030, with significant risks in Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California [2][32]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Electricity Shortage in North America - The electricity shortage is driven by the non-linear growth of AI demand and the aging power grid infrastructure. The electricity consumption in the U.S. is expected to reach historical highs in 2025-2026, with data centers' planned installed capacity increasing from 5GW in early 2023 to over 245GW by October 2025 [6][19]. - The average lifespan of power infrastructure in the U.S. is around 35-40 years, leading to frequent outages and an inability to meet the reliability demands of AIDC [15][19]. Section 2: Power Source Selection - Gas turbines are identified as the primary power source, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation as supplementary options. The report emphasizes the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of gas turbines, which can achieve over 60% efficiency and have the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [2][37]. - The report also discusses the expected increase in gas turbine installations, with global new installations projected to approach previous cycle peaks by 2025, driven by the surge in AIDC electricity demand [48][52]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various technologies due to the ongoing electricity shortage, suggesting investments in gas turbines, gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation. Specific companies are highlighted for potential investment opportunities, including Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, and others [2][37][39].