证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250507 "稳市场稳预期"政策发布提振资本市场信 心 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 5 月 7 日上午，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督 管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 并答记者问。 观点 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 潘京 执业证书：S0600524120011 panj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 ◼ 一季度数据显示经济整体呈现企稳回升态势，但内需压力仍存，在关税 影响下，外部环境不确定性增加，出口下行、企业利润实际受损的程度 仍然有待评估。为贯彻中央政治局会议精神，进一步实施好适度宽松的 货币政策，"一行一局一会"出台了全面、清晰、务实的一揽子金融支持 政策，以"稳市场、稳预期"为目标，释放出强烈的宏观调控信号。本 次会议发声既体现了中央对当前经济形势的精准把控，也展现出中央坚 定不移执行高质量发展目标的战略定力。 ◼ 央行分别就数量型、价格型和结构型工具 ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250507 估值异常因子绩效月报 20250430 2025 年 05 月 07 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 ◼ 估值偏离 EPD 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 4 月，估值偏离 EPD 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组多 空对冲的年化收益为 17.65%，年化波动为 10.02%，信息比率为 1.76， 月度胜率为 71.04%，月度最大回撤为 8.93%。 ◼ 缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 4 月，缓慢偏离 EPDS 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组 多空对冲的年化收益为 16.31%，年化波动为 5.73%，信息比率为 2.85， 月度胜率为 79.23%，月度最大回撤为 3.10%。 ◼ 估值异常 EPA 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2010 年 2 月至 2025 年 4 月，估值异常 EPA 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票）中，5 分组多空 对冲的年化收益为 17.30%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was outstanding, with revenue reaching 489 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 958.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22 million yuan, up 334.14% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the increase in computing power leasing business, which is expected to continue benefiting from the growing demand for AI infrastructure in 2025 [8] - The company has accumulated orders worth approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with a significant increase in advance payments, indicating strong future revenue potential [8] - The report highlights that 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for AI infrastructure in China, with major international companies increasing their capital expenditures, which will positively impact the domestic computing power leasing market [8] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 118 million yuan and 309 million yuan, respectively, with an expected net profit of 412 million yuan in 2027 [8] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 1,192 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 81.23% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 117.7 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 255.49% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.07 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 79.70 based on the current price [9]

Macro Strategy - The focus of monetary policy adjustments, including "reserve requirement ratio cuts" and "interest rate cuts," is to stabilize economic growth and enhance domestic demand, expectations, and confidence [1] - The analysis of Trump's 2.0 policy indicates a combination of continuity from the 1.0 policy and a new political cycle, with tariffs and fiscal policies being the main sources of expectation differences [1] Overseas Market Overview - The overseas market data during the May Day holiday showed resilience in the US economy, with core GDP and non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to July [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain interest rates, with a CPI forecast of 2.4% providing conditions for potential rate cuts [2] Fixed Income Market - In the week of April 28 to May 2, seven green bonds were issued, totaling approximately 8.475 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.725 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary capital bonds issued during the same period totaled 50 billion yuan, with a trading volume of approximately 104.9 billion yuan, down 31.3 billion yuan from the previous week [5] Company Performance Insights - The company "老百姓" reported a revenue of 22.358 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 0.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 519 million yuan, down 44.13% [8] - "同享科技" adjusted its profit forecast due to intense competition, expecting net profits of 33 million yuan, 52 million yuan, and 68 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22% in 2025 [9] - "海南机场" is expected to benefit from the development of Hainan Free Trade Port, with revised net profit forecasts of 680 million yuan and 1.02 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [9] - "益丰药房" achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 6.53%, with a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, up 8.26% [10] - "九安医疗" reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.77%, but a net profit increase of 33.3% to 1.67 billion yuan [15] Industry Trends - The report on "科润智控" indicates a significant increase in transformer demand, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted to 84 million yuan, 123 million yuan, and 168 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 97% in 2025 [17] - "海吉亚医疗" is expected to stabilize after a low point in 2024, with revised net profit forecasts of 666 million yuan and 782 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [18] - "中国电建" is projected to have net profits of 12.5 billion yuan and 13.2 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, benefiting from infrastructure investments [20] - "中国中铁" reported a revenue decline in traditional infrastructure but saw growth in overseas orders, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 28 billion yuan for 2025 [22] - "微软" continues to show strong performance in cloud business, with net profit forecasts of 99.1 billion dollars for FY2025 [23]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·汽车零部件 飞龙股份（002536） 新能源热管理细分龙头，非车业务进入爆发 期 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,095 | 4,723 | 5,447 | 6,268 | 6,942 | | 同比（%） | 25.69 | 15.34 | 15.33 | 15.07 | 10.75 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 261.77 | 329.62 | 454.71 | 630.84 | 788.75 | | 同比（%） | 211.14 | 25.92 | 37.95 | 38.73 | 25.03 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.57 | 0.79 | 1.10 | 1.37 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 35.22 | 27.97 | 20.28 | 14.61 | 11.69 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery with both new and second-hand housing sales increasing in several regions due to policy relaxations [1][8] - The report highlights a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a shift in buyer confidence towards existing properties [9] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate sector saw a decline of 2.9% last week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 0.4% [62] - New housing sales in 36 cities reached 2.154 million square meters, up 24.0% month-on-month and 20.7% year-on-year [13] - Second-hand housing sales in 15 cities totaled 1.334 million square meters, down 30.6% month-on-month but up 53.1% year-on-year [20] 2. Inventory and Absorption - The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 78.039 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [31] - The absorption period for new homes is 17.2 months, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month but a decrease of 5.1 months year-on-year [31] 3. Land Market - The land transaction volume in 100 cities was 6.309 million square meters, down 68.2% month-on-month and 18.8% year-on-year [48] - The average land price reached 3,246 RMB per square meter, showing a month-on-month increase of 60.5% and a year-on-year increase of 44.9% [48] 4. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, companies such as China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group are recommended [8] - In property management, the report suggests China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and Poly Property [8] - For real estate brokerage, the report recommends Beike and suggests paying attention to Wo Ai Wo Jia [9]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 短期经济回落，地产链底部徘徊 2025 年 05 月 06 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024/5/6 2024/9/2 2024/12/30 2025/4/28 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《以稳为主，科技加内需仍是主线》 2025-04-28 《期待 25 年 Q3 家装迎来明显加速》 2025-04-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.4.28–2025.4.30，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅- 2.14%，同期沪深 300、 ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250506 "重拾自信2.0"RCP因子绩效月报20250430 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《重拾自信选股因子 2.0——从过度 自信到重拾自信》 2022-09-15 《"重拾自信 2.0"RCP 因子绩效月报 20250331》 2025-04-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "重拾自信 2.0"RCP 因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 4 月，"重拾自信 2.0"RCP 因子在全体 A 股（剔除北交所股票） 中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益为 18.84%，年化波动为 7.71%，信息 比率为 2.44，月度胜率为 79.26%，月度最大回撤为 5.89%。 ◼ 4 月份"重拾 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 增持（下调） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,175 | 2,673 | 2,828 | 3,250 | 3,736 | | 同比（%） | 74.39 | 22.91 | 5.81 | 14.92 | 14.93 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 120.47 | 42.29 | 32.90 | 52.12 | 68.42 | | 同比（%） | 139.99 | (64.90) | (22.19) | 58.41 | 31.27 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.10 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.48 | 0.62 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.84 | 47.97 | 61.65 | 38.92 | 29.65 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 曾朵红 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: RPV (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) - **Model Construction Idea**: The RPV factor integrates intraday and overnight price-volume correlations. It identifies the best representatives for intraday and overnight correlations, combining their information to enhance the factor's effectiveness. The model leverages the reversal and momentum effects in price-volume relationships, incorporating turnover data to strengthen these effects [6][7]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The RPV factor is derived by combining the intraday price-volume correlation (CCOIV) and the overnight price-volume correlation (COV). - Intraday correlations enhance reversal effects, while overnight correlations capture momentum effects through the "mismatch" in time dimensions, where "yesterday's volume" strengthens overnight returns. - These components are harmonized to serve a unified goal, resulting in the RPV factor [6]. - **Model Evaluation**: The RPV factor is described as "novel and effective," capable of capturing both reversal and momentum effects in price-volume relationships [6]. 2. Model Name: SRV (Smart Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) - **Model Construction Idea**: The SRV factor refines the RPV factor by introducing "smart" metrics. It splits intraday price movements into morning and afternoon segments, identifying informed trading periods. It also replaces turnover with a higher-informed trading proportion for overnight correlations, combining the improved intraday and overnight factors [6][7]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Intraday price movements are divided into morning and afternoon segments. The "smart" metric identifies the top 20% most informed trading minutes in the afternoon (24 minutes). - The afternoon "smart" turnover rate is correlated with afternoon price movements. - For overnight correlations, the turnover rate is replaced with the turnover from the last 30 minutes of the previous day, which has a higher proportion of informed trading. - The improved intraday and overnight correlations are combined to form the SRV factor [6][7]. - **Model Evaluation**: The SRV factor is considered superior to the RPV factor, with better performance metrics and lower maximum drawdown [6][7]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. RPV Model - **Annualized Return**: 14.97% - **Annualized Volatility**: 7.72% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.94 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 73.33% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 10.63% [7][10] 2. SRV Model - **Annualized Return**: 17.84% - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.44% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 2.77 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 76.30% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 3.74% [7][10] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: RPV (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The RPV factor combines intraday and overnight price-volume correlations to capture reversal and momentum effects. It incorporates turnover data to enhance these effects [6][7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Intraday price-volume correlation (CCOIV) strengthens reversal effects. - Overnight price-volume correlation (COV) captures momentum effects through time-dimension mismatches. - These components are combined to form the RPV factor [6]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The RPV factor is described as "novel and effective," capable of leveraging both reversal and momentum effects [6]. 2. Factor Name: SRV (Smart Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The SRV factor enhances the RPV factor by introducing "smart" metrics for intraday and overnight correlations, improving its ability to capture informed trading signals [6][7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Intraday price movements are split into morning and afternoon segments. - The "smart" metric identifies the top 20% most informed trading minutes in the afternoon. - The afternoon "smart" turnover rate is correlated with afternoon price movements. - For overnight correlations, the turnover rate is replaced with the turnover from the last 30 minutes of the previous day. - The improved intraday and overnight correlations are combined to form the SRV factor [6][7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The SRV factor is considered superior to the RPV factor, with better performance metrics and lower maximum drawdown [6][7]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. RPV Factor - **Annualized Return**: 14.97% - **Annualized Volatility**: 7.72% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.94 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 73.33% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 10.63% [7][10] 2. SRV Factor - **Annualized Return**: 17.84% - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.44% - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 2.77 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 76.30% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 3.74% [7][10]