2025 年 2 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 PMI 显示经济放缓但仍有韧性 美国 1 月服务业 PMI 超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态，显示经济温和放缓但仍有 韧性，分项指数显示服务业需求放缓、通胀回落但就业扩张，令部分投资者相 信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业 PMI 时隔 10 个月重回荣枯线以上，需 求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升，可能因为房地产与耐用消费复 苏、供应链修复和关税预期下进出口抢跑效应，但特朗普关税政策可能为制造 业未来前景蒙上阴影。总体来看，PMI 数据小幅减轻市场对通胀反弹的担忧， 加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺，美股和美债受到提振，但特朗 普不确定性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加 和特朗普不确定性，未来两个季度美国经济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗 普政策推升中期通胀不确定性，美联储对降息更加谨慎，预计 3 月和 5 月可能 继续暂停降息，6 月和 9 月可能两次降息各 25 个基点。 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (852 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Alphabet, with a target price adjusted to US$234.00, reflecting a potential upside of 21.1% from the current price of US$193.30 [1][2]. Core Insights - Alphabet's 4Q24 results showed net revenue growth of 13% YoY to US$81.6 billion and net income growth of 28% YoY to US$26.5 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - For FY24, net income increased by 36% YoY to US$100.1 billion, driven by improved operating efficiency and cost savings from office space optimization [1]. - Management anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditures to approximately US$75 billion in FY25E, a 43% YoY increase, primarily for AI and cloud investments, which may pressure margins [1][6]. - The report indicates a slight reduction in FY25-26E net income forecasts by 1-2% due to higher-than-expected AI investments [1]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23A revenue was US$307.4 billion, projected to grow to US$350.0 billion in FY24A and further to US$392.3 billion in FY25E [2][11]. - Net profit for FY23A was US$73.8 billion, expected to rise to US$100.1 billion in FY24A and US$110.7 billion in FY25E [2][11]. - The consensus EPS is projected to increase from US$5.84 in FY23A to US$8.13 in FY24A and US$9.14 in FY25E [2]. Advertising and Cloud Revenue Insights - Google Advertising maintained solid growth, with Google Search & other revenue increasing by 12.5% YoY to US$54.0 billion in 4Q24, driven by ad spending in financial services and retail [6]. - YouTube ad revenue grew by 13.8% YoY to US$10.5 billion, significantly boosted by increased ad spending during the US elections [6]. - Google Cloud revenue grew by 30% YoY to US$12.0 billion in 4Q24, although growth decelerated due to supply constraints [6]. AI Investment and Future Outlook - Alphabet plans to enhance AI investments to unlock growth potential, with a focus on increasing AI capacity to meet rising demand [6][9]. - The operating profit margin improved by 4.6 percentage points YoY to 32.1% in 4Q24, attributed to operational efficiencies [6]. - Management expects variability in cloud revenue growth rates in 2025, depending on the timing of new capacity deployment [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Innolight with a target price of RMB186.00, indicating a potential upside of 45.0% from the current price of RMB128.25 [2][6]. Core Insights - Innolight is expected to see a significant increase in net profit (NP) for FY24, projected to rise by 111.6%-166.9% to RMB4.6 billion - RMB5.8 billion, with a midpoint of RMB5.2 billion reflecting a 139.2% year-over-year growth [1][6]. - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary in the ongoing AI infrastructure investment cycle, driven by strong global demand for computing power [1][6]. - Recent developments in AI spending, including substantial investments from major companies, indicate a robust outlook for AI-related products, particularly optical transceivers [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB10,718 million in FY23 to RMB24,269 million in FY24, representing a year-over-year growth of 126.4% [7][9]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB2,174 million in FY23 to RMB5,276 million in FY24, marking a 142.8% growth [7][9]. - The gross margin is anticipated to remain stable at around 33.3% in FY24, slightly decreasing to 32.3% in FY25 [7][9]. Share Performance - The stock has experienced a 1-month decline of 2.6% and a 3-month decline of 18.4%, indicating recent volatility [4]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are RMB185.83 and RMB72.29, respectively, reflecting significant price fluctuations [2][4]. Growth Drivers - The main growth driver for Innolight in 2025 is expected to be the 800G product line, with a gradual ramp-up of 1.6T products anticipated in subsequent years [6][9]. - The company has seen strong demand for its 400/800G products, with a favorable product mix expected to shift towards higher sales of 800G products in 2025 [6][9]. Market Context - The report highlights that the fear surrounding the mainstream adoption of CPO solutions is overstated, as there are still technical challenges to overcome [1][6]. - Major AI spending initiatives, such as Meta's planned $60-65 billion capex for 2025 and ByteDance's $12 billion consideration for AI investments, underscore the ongoing demand for AI computing power [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Microsoft, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [26]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported 2QFY25 results with revenue of US$69.6 billion, up 12% YoY, and net profit of US$24.1 billion, up 10% YoY, both exceeding consensus estimates [1][2]. - The growth in cloud revenue, particularly from AI-related services, is a key focus, with Azure AI services revenue generation exceeding expectations [1][2]. - The target price is set at US$503.1, reflecting a slight increase from the previous target price of US$501.9, translating to a 32x FY26E PE [2][18]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth for the Intelligent Cloud (IC) segment was 19% YoY, contributing significantly to overall revenue, while Azure and other cloud services saw a 31% YoY increase [1][9]. - The Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) segment reported revenue of US$29.4 billion, up 14% YoY, with operating profit margin expanding to 57.4% [1][9]. - Capital expenditures for 2QFY25 were US$22.6 billion, a 97% increase YoY, indicating strong investment to meet demand [1][9]. Forecast and Valuation Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for FY25E were slightly revised down by 1.7% and 2.4% respectively, due to adjustments in cloud revenue growth expectations [16][17]. - The overall operating profit margin is expected to improve, with projections of 44.9% for FY25E [16][17]. - The report highlights a strong outlook for AI-related monetization as a critical driver for stock price in the next 6-12 months [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Meta, with a target price raised to US$835, reflecting a potential upside of 21.2% from the current price of US$689.18 [1][2][9]. Core Insights - Meta reported solid 4Q24 results, with total revenue increasing by 21% year-over-year to US$48.4 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3%. Net income rose by 49% year-over-year to US$20.8 billion, 18% above consensus, largely due to favorable legal accrual reductions and lower restructuring costs [1][2]. - For FY24, total revenue and net income grew by 22% and 59% year-over-year, reaching US$164.5 billion and US$62.4 billion, respectively. Management anticipates revenue growth of 8-15% year-over-year for 1Q25, with total revenue projected between US$39.5 billion and US$41.8 billion [1][2][11]. - The company is significantly increasing investments in AI, with total expenses expected to grow by 20-25% year-over-year to US$114-119 billion, and capital expenditures projected to rise by 53-66% year-over-year to US$60-65 billion [1][2][11]. Financial Performance - In 4Q24, the Family of Apps ad revenue grew by 21% year-over-year to US$47.3 billion, driven by a 6% increase in ad impressions and a 14% rise in average price per ad, aided by AI optimizations [6][11]. - The annual revenue run-rate for Advantage+ shopping campaigns surpassed US$20 billion in 4Q24, marking a 70% year-over-year increase, with over 4 million advertisers utilizing Meta's generative AI ad creative tools [6][11]. - The report outlines a forecast for FY25E total revenue of US$187.7 billion, with net profit expected to reach US$65.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase from previous estimates [7][8][11]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of US$835 is based on a 32x FY25E P/E ratio, which is a premium to the sector average of 24x, indicating confidence in Meta's long-term growth potential [9][10]. - The report highlights that Meta's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 28.0 in FY24 to 26.4 in FY25, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for ServiceNow, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [18]. Core Insights - ServiceNow reported 4Q24 results with total revenue increasing by 21% YoY to US$2.96 billion, and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 22% YoY to US$872 million, both in line with consensus estimates [1]. - For FY25, management guides subscription revenue to increase by 19.5-20% YoY on a constant currency basis, slightly below the consensus estimate of 20.5% YoY [1]. - The target price has been raised to US$1,220 based on a 55x FY25E EV/EBITDA, up from a previous target of US$1,075 at 48x FY25 EV/EBITDA [1][11]. Financial Performance - FY24 total revenue was up by 22% YoY to US$10.98 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) increasing by 1.9 percentage points YoY to 29.6% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24 was US$2.90 billion, reflecting a YoY growth of 31% [2]. - The forecast for FY25E total revenue is US$13.04 billion, with a projected YoY growth of 21.1% [2]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - ServiceNow is expected to benefit from growing enterprise demand for digitalization and agentic AI, with significant growth in large deals [1]. - The number of customers generating over US$1 million and US$20 million in annual contract value grew by 12% and 35% YoY, respectively, in 4Q24 [8]. - Management reported a 150% QoQ growth in Now Assist deals, indicating strong momentum in AI adoption [8]. Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization of ServiceNow is approximately US$211.82 billion [3]. - The stock is currently trading at a price of US$1,018.38, with an upside potential of 19.8% to the target price of US$1,220 [3]. - The P/E ratio for FY25E is projected at 120.8x, which is a premium compared to the sector average [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.91, representing a potential upside of 58.9% from the current price of HKD 6.24 [2][7][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong early clinical data for its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody (707), showing promising efficacy in treating various cancers, particularly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) [7][8][9]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth of 12% and net profit growth of 13% for FY25, supported by a robust pipeline and favorable market conditions [7][12][15]. - The company is actively pursuing global licensing opportunities for its innovative therapies, indicating potential for international expansion and revenue diversification [7][9][10]. Financial Summary - **Sales Revenue**: Expected to grow from RMB 7,816 million in FY23 to RMB 9,892 million in FY25, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 12.8% [7][12]. - **Net Profit**: Projected to increase from RMB 1,549 million in FY23 to RMB 2,147 million in FY25, with a notable growth rate of 23.2% in FY24 [7][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Anticipated to rise from RMB 0.64 in FY23 to RMB 0.89 in FY25 [7][12]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is trading at a P/E ratio of 6.6 for FY25, indicating attractive valuation compared to industry peers [7][12]. Clinical Development - The company plans to initiate Phase III clinical trials for its 707 therapy targeting NSCLC and CRC in the near future, which could further validate its market potential [7][8][9]. - Multiple early-stage pipelines are entering clinical phases, including promising candidates for pain management and autoimmune diseases, enhancing the company's growth prospects [7][10][12]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market capitalization of HKD 15,080.8 million and has shown resilience in stock performance, with a 52-week price range of HKD 4.94 to HKD 7.82 [2][4]. - The shareholder structure indicates strong institutional support, with TMF (Cayman) Ltd. holding 23.9% and BlackRock, Inc. holding 5.1% [3].

3 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update EVA Holdings (838 HK) 2H24 preview: both revenue, NP stable HoH Maintain BUY. We project EVA's 2H24E revenue to rise 1% YoY and net profit to increase 2% YoY. We expect auto component revenue to grow faster in FY25E, as new business ramps up. We also expect its office automation (OA) business to remain stable with slight increase in gross margin. We estimate EVA's net profit to rise 18% YoY to HK$289mn in FY25E. We project 2H24E ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Life, with a target price of HK$20.00, indicating a potential upside of 38.1% from the current price of HK$14.48 [3][8]. Core Insights - China Life expects a significant increase in net profit for FY24, projecting growth of 122%-144% YoY under IFRS, translating to RMB56.2-66.4 billion, and 100%-120% YoY under ASBE, amounting to RMB51.2-61.4 billion. This is a decrease from the 174% increase observed in the year-to-3Q24 [1][8]. - The potential decline in 4Q net profit is attributed to investment volatilities, despite a strong capital market performance in 3Q24, which boosted total investment income by 152.4% YoY in the first nine months of FY24 [1][8]. - The company is adjusting its strategic asset allocation, increasing exposure to high-dividend yield stocks and balancing equity exposure between FVTPL and FVOCI [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, net profit is expected to range from RMB102.4 billion to RMB112.6 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB110.857 billion for FY24, a significant recovery from RMB47.547 billion in FY23 [2][9]. - EPS is forecasted to be RMB3.85 for FY24, a decrease from the previous estimate of RMB4.45, while FY25 and FY26 EPS are projected at RMB2.68 and RMB2.81 respectively [2][8]. - The company anticipates a 19.2% growth in NBV for FY24 and 9.2% for FY25, supported by a total premium growth of 4.7% YoY to RMB671.7 billion in FY24 [1][8]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.24x FY25E P/EV and 0.67x FY25E P/BV, with an expected annualized ROE of 21% in FY24 [1][8]. - The projected dividend yield for FY24 is 8.6%, reflecting an increase in DPS, although it may not match the earnings growth due to the unsustainable nature of net fair value gains [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Shengyi Tech with a target price adjusted to RMB34.50, reflecting a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of RMB29.96 [1][3]. Core Insights - Shengyi Tech is expected to see a net profit increase of 46.0-54.6% year-on-year for FY24, with a midpoint estimate of RMB1.75 billion, which is lower than both Bloomberg consensus and the report's previous estimates [1]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI-related products, particularly its ultra-low-loss CCL products, which are anticipated to be utilized in Nvidia's upcoming AI accelerators in 2025 [1][8]. - The report highlights a sector upcycle and the company's leading market position, being the second-largest player in the global CCL market with a 12% market share in 2023 [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at RMB19.84 billion, representing a 19.6% year-on-year growth, with further growth expected in FY25 and FY26 [2][12]. - Net profit for FY24 is estimated at RMB1.81 billion, a significant increase of 55.4% year-on-year, with continued growth forecasted for the following years [2][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 19.2% in FY23 to 22.1% in FY24, indicating better profitability [2][12]. Segment Performance - The preliminary results indicate that the CCL/Pregreg segment's net profit is estimated to be RMB1.42 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year, driven by higher production and sales volume [8]. - The PCB segment is expected to show a turnaround with an estimated net profit of RMB329 million, compared to a net loss of RMB25 million in 2023, driven by increasing demand for multilayer PCBs [8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Shengyi Tech's products are increasingly adopted in the AI market, particularly its Ultra Low-loss and Extreme Low-loss CCL products [8]. - The company is expected to maintain a net profit growth forecast of 51% year-on-year for 2025, supported by the AI theme and sector upcycle [8].