2025 年 2 月 10 日 MSCI 中国医疗指数 2025 年初至今累计上涨 5.3%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 0.9%。 受益于海外降息以及国内宏观环境改善，医药作为高弹性行业有望在 2025 年跑赢 市场。丙类医保目录年内即将落地，创新药将借助商业医疗保险的覆盖获得更好的 支付条件。医疗设备招标加速复苏，将推动国产医疗设备企业盈利复苏。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 药明康德 | 603259 CH | 买入 | 23,044.0 | 78.51 | 35% | 15.0 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | | 百济神州 | ONC US ...

中国汽车行业 - 1月行业折扣扩大，比亚迪、零跑、埃安领衔 根据我们的测算，1月全行业平均折扣环比扩大0.3个百分点，主要由自主品牌（比亚迪、零跑和埃安）以及德 系品牌（宝马和奥迪）推动。昨晚比亚迪宣布将为几乎所有的主销车型标配高阶智驾功能，并且加量不加价， 从行业折扣的角度我们认为这将进一步促使价格战升级。在主要的车企中，我们认为吉利和小鹏今年仍有望交 出好于市场预期的答卷。 蔚小理和零跑：2025年1月，蔚来和理想的平均折扣环比持平，小鹏的平均折扣环比扩大0.8个百分点，主要 是因为G6和X9的折扣环比扩大4-5个百分点。小鹏有望在1Q推出P7大改款，2Q推出全新车型G7。零跑1月份 的平均折扣环比扩大3.1个百分点至9.1%，超出我们的预期。 行业点评 科技行业 - 智能驾驶：比亚迪"汽车智能化战略"发布会要点解读 2月10日，比亚迪在深圳总部举行的"汽车智能化战略"发布会上宣布，将在所有价格超过10万元的车型和3款 价格低于10万元的车型上搭载其"天神之眼"先进智能驾驶系统。首批21款车型均配备行业领先的端到端大型语 言模型LLM、5个毫米波雷达、12个摄像头和12个超声波雷达。由于比亚迪智能驾驶进展 ...

Employment Data - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, below the market expectation of 175,000[1] - The total non-farm employment data for November and December was revised upward by 100,000 to 261,000 and 307,000 respectively[2] - Private sector job growth slowed from 273,000 in December to 111,000 in January[2] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.48% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.33%[2] - Year-on-year wage growth slightly rose from 4.05% to 4.06%[2] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.0% in January[3] - Labor force participation rate increased from 62.5% to 62.6%[3] Labor Market Adjustments - Total labor force population was revised upward by 2.1 million, primarily due to foreign-born workers[3] - The three-month moving average of non-farm payrolls rose from 82,000 in August to 237,000 in January[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts in March and May[4] - Further rate cuts of 25 basis points may occur in June and September due to tightening effects from rising real rates and a stronger dollar[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Amazon, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [23]. Core Insights - Amazon's 4Q24 results showed revenue of US$187.8 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of US$21.2 billion, up 61% year-over-year, driven by margin improvements in both North America and AWS segments [1][6]. - For 2025, revenue is projected to grow to between US$151.0 billion and US$155.5 billion, implying a 5-9% year-over-year growth, while operating profit is expected to be between US$14.0 billion and US$18.0 billion [1][6]. - The target price for Amazon has been raised by 14% to US$268.0, based on an 18.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, which aligns with the two-year trading average [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - In FY24, total revenue reached US$638.0 billion, with a net profit of US$59.2 billion, reflecting a 95% year-over-year increase [1][8]. - For FY25, revenue is estimated at US$702.6 billion, with a net profit of US$71.2 billion, representing a 20.2% year-over-year growth [8][12]. - The operating profit for FY25 is projected to be US$83.8 billion, up 22% year-over-year, despite a negative impact of US$400 million from accounting changes [7][12]. Segment Performance - AWS revenue for 4Q24 was US$28.8 billion, up 18.9% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 36.9% [6][10]. - The North America segment reported revenue of US$115.6 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, with operating margin expanding to 8.0% [6][10]. - Advertising services revenue grew 18.0% year-over-year to US$17.3 billion, contributing 9.2% to total revenue in 4Q24 [6][10]. Valuation and Forecast Changes - The valuation period has been rolled over to 2025E, with updated forecasts reflecting a slight decrease in revenue estimates for FY25 and FY26 by 0.4% [12][13]. - The gross profit margin for FY25 is expected to be 50.0%, with an operating profit margin of 11.9% [12][13].

招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 台积电：AI 需求激增推动强劲的业绩和指引 台积电（TSM US，未评级）公布了强劲的 2024年四季度业绩。公司收入达到 268 亿美元（同比增长 36.5%/环比增长 14.1%），比彭博一致预期/公司指引高 3.9%/1.3%，主要受 3 纳米/5 纳米芯片的强劲需求驱动。毛利率扩张至 59.0%，高 于彭博一致预期/公司指引的 58.5%/58.0%，主要受益于更高的产能利用率和生产 效率，部分被 3 纳米产能扩张的稀释抵消。按技术节点划分，3 纳米在四季度的收 入占比为 26%（上季度/去年同期为 20%/15%）。按下游应用领域划分，高性能计 算仍是最大贡献板块，收入占比超过 50%，反映 AI 的强劲需求。2024 财年收入同 比增长 30%至 901 亿美元，毛利率为 56.1%，同比提升 1.7 个百分点。 管理层预计 2025 年一季度收入将在 250-258 亿美元区间。收入中值意味着同比增 长 35%，环比下降 6%。管理层表示，收入环比下降 6%主要受 1）智能手机季节 性因素影响，但 2）部分将被 AI 领域的强劲需求所抵消。 ...

2025 年 2 月 7 日 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR ) 或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报 告 1 MN 宏观：特朗普关税政策来得比预期更早，可能改变政策路径。近期中国经济 有望延续复苏态势，住房与耐用品销售回升作为先行指标预示消费需求可能 广泛改善 ；远期经济面临贸易战 与政策刺激效应递减带来的下行压力，但逆 周期的政策会因时因势而动。特朗普关税政策短期 将推升美国通胀，延缓美 联储降息，推高政策利率，打击美股，中长期则 会抑制需求 和削弱产业竞争 力 。因此 ，美债收益率曲线可能更加平坦化，长债收益率与美元指数可能先 升后降。我们维持美联储 6 月和 9 月两次降息预测。 科技：受益全球手机 /PC 需求回暖、国内消费电子补贴、 DeepSeek 催化 AI 终端加速渗透以及 AI 服务器高增延续，我们预期科技板块有望继续跑赢市 场，建议布局两条主线： 1 ） Deep Seek 和 Apple Intelligence 加速端侧 AI 推 广落地 ， OpenAI 宣布开发 AI 终端，国内补贴刺激需求，全球手 ...

美国1月服务业PMI超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态，显示经济温和放缓但仍有韧性，分项指数显示服务业需求放 缓、通胀回落但就业扩张，令部分投资者相信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业PMI时隔10个月重回荣枯 线以上，需求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升，可能因为房地产与耐用消费复苏、供应链修复和关税 预期下进出口抢跑效应，但特朗普关税政策可能为制造业未来前景蒙上阴影。总体来看，PMI数据小幅减轻市 场对通胀反弹的担忧，加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺，美股和美债受到提振，但特朗普不确定 性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加和特朗普不确定性，未来两个季度美国经 济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗普政策推升中期通胀不确定性，美联储对降息更加谨慎，预计3月和5月可 能继续暂停降息，6月和9月可能两次降息各25个基点。 服务业PMI低于预期，显示服务经济增速放缓。ISM服务业PMI从12月的54.1下降至52.8，低于市场预期的 54，服务业保持扩张但幅度放缓。根据历史经验，服务业PMI超过49预示经济扩张，本月服务业PMI对应年化 GDP增速为1.4%。商业活动指数从12月高位的58. ...

宏观：特朗普关税政策来得比预期更早，可能改变政策路径。近期中国经济有望延续复苏态势，住房与耐用品 销售回升作为先行指标预示消费需求可能广泛改善；远期经济面临贸易战与政策刺激效应递减带来的下行压 力，但逆周期的政策会因时因势而动。特朗普关税政策短期将推升美国通胀，延缓美联储降息，推高政策利 率，打击美股，中长期则会抑制需求和削弱产业竞争力。因此，美债收益率曲线可能更加平坦化，长债收益率 与美元指数可能先升后降。我们维持美联储6月和9月两次降息预测。 科技：受益全球手机/PC需求回暖、国内消费电子补贴、DeepSeek催化AI终端加速渗透以及AI服务器高增延 续，我们预期科技板块有望继续跑赢市场，建议布局两条主线：1）DeepSeek和Apple Intelligence加速端侧 AI推广落地，OpenAI宣布开发AI终端，国内补贴刺激需求，全球手机/AI终端将有望进入新一轮升级周期（手 机/PC/穿戴/眼镜/智能家居）；2）服务器算力需求维持高增，GB200/300服务器/网络新架构升级，进一步推 动ODM和零部件需求(銅链接/液冷/电源)。产业链方面，看好1)手机/AI终端产业链（小米/比电/立讯/瑞声/鸿 ...

宏观经济 美国经济 - PMI显示经济放缓但仍有韧性 美国1月服务业PMI超预期回落但仍处于扩张状态，显示经济温和放缓但仍有韧性，分项指数显示服务业需求放 缓、通胀回落但就业扩张，令部分投资者相信美国经济仍处于金发姑娘状态。制造业PMI时隔10个月重回荣枯 线以上，需求、生产、就业、价格和进出口均明显回升，可能因为房地产与耐用消费复苏、供应链修复和关税 预期下进出口抢跑效应，但特朗普关税政策可能为制造业未来前景蒙上阴影。 总体来看，PMI数据小幅减轻市场对通胀反弹的担忧，加上美国财长重申降通胀和不干预联储的承诺，美股和 美债受到提振，但特朗普不确定性并未消失。由于近几个月美元利率反弹、汇率走强、美股波动增加和特朗普 不确定性，未来两个季度美国经济和通胀可能温和放缓。但由于特朗普政策推升中期通胀不确定性，美联储对 降息更加谨慎，预计3月和5月可能继续暂停降息，6月和9月可能两次降息各25个基点。 公司点评 百胜中国（9987 HK，买入，目标价：484.83港元）- 4季度基本面良好，25财年展望仍能乐观 24财年4季度业绩符合预期，基本面改善令人鼓舞。百胜中国24财年销售和净利润分别增长4%和10%，均符 合 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Thermo Fisher, with a target price raised from US$670 to US$690, indicating an upside potential of 18.5% from the current price of US$582.38 [3][7]. Core Insights - Thermo Fisher delivered a strong performance in 4Q24, with revenue growth of 4.7% YoY and adjusted EPS growth of 7.6%, surpassing consensus estimates [1][7]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 1.4-2.6% YoY and adjusted EPS growth of 5.7-7.5% YoY for 2025, reflecting a positive outlook [1][7]. - A robust demand outlook is expected to continue, driven by pharmaceutical innovation and a favorable biotech funding environment, with management projecting long-term industry growth of 4-6% and organic growth for Thermo Fisher of 7-9% [7][8]. - The company plans to invest US$1.4-1.7 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, marking an 11% YoY increase, the first such growth since 2021 [7]. Financial Summary - For FY24, Thermo Fisher reported revenue of US$42,879 million, with a slight YoY growth of 0.1%. The forecast for FY25 is US$44,129 million, representing a growth of 2.9% YoY [2][15]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24 was US$8,380 million, with an expected increase to US$8,852 million in FY25, reflecting a growth of 5.6% YoY [2][15]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24 was US$21.94, projected to rise to US$23.38 in FY25, indicating a growth of 6.6% [2][15]. Segment Performance - In 4Q24, all business segments showed sequential improvements, with Life Science growing by 5.5% YoY, Analytical Instruments by 7.3% YoY, and Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services by 3.8% YoY [7][8]. - The clinical CRO business experienced low single-digit growth in 2024, while the demand from China showed signs of recovery, with low single-digit growth in revenue [7][8]. Market Position - Thermo Fisher's market capitalization stands at approximately US$222.47 billion, with significant institutional ownership from Vanguard (8.6%) and BlackRock (7.6%) [3][4]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of 8.4% and a 3-month performance of 4.1%, indicating positive market sentiment [5][6].