证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年04月17日 华源晨会精粹 固定收益 纯债基金久期估算-区分利率与信用——基于 K-means 聚类算法和加权 线性回归：久期是债券基金的核心风险指标，用于衡量投资组合对利率变动的敏感 性。我们基于债基净值回归法进行久期日频估算。本文测算债基久期中位数和公告 久期中位数误差较小，测算结果具有一定的准确性和稳定性。结果显示，样本中的 利 率 债 纯 债 券 型 基 金 / 信 用 债 纯 债 券 型 基 金 / 标 准 中 长 期 纯 债 基 金 分 别 有 57%/47%/55%测算误差在 0.4 年以内，验证了模型的有效性。2025 年 4 月上旬， 我们测算的利率债基久期中位数从 4 月 1 日的 3.44 年上升至 4 月 10 日的 3.79 年， 反映关税战使得债基普遍拉长久期；同时期，信用债基久期中位数则从 2.05 年升至 2.18 年。中美关税战出现缓和迹象，债市预计将调整。 风险提示：模型假设风险；数据质量风险；极端市场风险。 公用环保 光大环境(0025 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 | 医疗器械 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 林海霖 SAC：S1350524050002 linhailin@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 年 | 04 | 月 17 日 | | | | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 25.50 | | | | 一 年 内 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | 最 | | 41.29/22.21 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 10,369.83 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 2,860.06 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | ...

有色金属 | 能源金属 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 赣锋锂业(002460.SZ) 投资评级： 增持（首次） ——锂一体化龙头，资源端放量穿越下行周期 投资要点： 风险提示。新建产能进度不及预期风险；新能源汽车需求不及预期风险；锂供给超预期释放 风险；市场空间测算偏差风险。 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 32,972 | 18,906 | 18,981 | 23,227 ...

投资评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 电子 2025年4月18日 智能驾驶行业报告 --智驾行业风起正当时，智驾芯片充分受益 证券分析师 姓名：葛星甫 资格编号：S1350524120001 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 邮箱：gexingfu@huayuanstock.com | | 分级 | 名称 | 说明 | 功能 | 驾驶员任务 | 设计运行范围 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | DA | 应急辅助 | 不能持续执行动态驾驶任务中的车辆横向或纵向运动控 但具备持续执行动态驾驶任务中的部分目标和事件 探测与响应的能力 | 无 | | 有限制 | | | | | 制， | | | | | | 驾驶辅助 | | 在其设计运行条件下持续地执行动态驾驶任务中的车辆 | | 时刻观察各种情 | | | 1 | | 部分驾驶辅助 | 横向或纵向运动控制， 且具备与所执行的车辆横向或纵 | ESC、ACC、 | 况，需要主动制 | 有限制 | | | | | 向运动控制相适应的部分目标和事件探测与响应的能力。 | AEB ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with both thermal and hydropower entering the production phase [5] - The significant increase in net profit for 2024 is primarily due to the transfer of 50% equity in Guodian Construction Investment, resulting in a one-time investment gain of approximately 4.6 billion [7] - The company plans to invest 74.1 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, with a focus on new energy projects [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 180.999 billion, a decrease of 7.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.609 billion, an increase of 98.80% [6] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 179.182 billion, with a slight decrease of 1.00%, while the net profit is expected to rise to 9.831 billion, reflecting a growth of 75.28% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.55 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.45 [6] Operational Insights - The company’s total installed capacity as of the end of 2024 is 111.7 million kilowatts, with thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar power capacities of 74.63 million, 14.95 million, 9.84 million, and 12.28 million kilowatts respectively [7] - The company achieved a total electricity generation of 436.7 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.59% [7] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is 429.82 yuan per megawatt-hour, a decrease of 7.97 yuan compared to 2023 [7] Future Projections - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.389 billion, 7.071 billion, and 7.247 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [7] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 36.28% for 2024, with a total dividend of 0.11 yuan per share [7]

证券研究报告 基础化工 | 化学制品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 18 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | | 日 | | 17 | | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 9.85 | | | | | 内 最 | 最 | / | | | | 10.29/5.96 | | | | 高 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, and it is waiting for signs of a bottoming out [6] - The company is positioned as a leader in the plastic pipe retail market, benefiting from domestic demand policies and high dividend yields, which enhance its defensive attributes [8] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 6,267 million RMB in 2024, a decrease of 1.75% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 953 million RMB, down 33.49% year-on-year [8] - The company’s PPR series revenue was 29.39 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 56.47%, while the PE series revenue was 14.23 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 31.40% [8] - The company expects net profits of 1,000 million RMB, 1,102 million RMB, and 1,219 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63, 0.69, and 0.77 RMB [8][9] Market Performance - The company’s sales expenses increased significantly, leading to a pressure on profitability, with a total profit margin of 15.32% in 2024 [8] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 99% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.75% [8] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 6,612 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.51% [9] - The expected operating profit for 2025 is 1,197 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 4.89% [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, marking its first coverage [5][61]. Core Views - The company focuses on its core toll road business while exploring diversified layouts, which is expected to enhance its profitability and shareholder returns [7][10]. - The company has a strong position in the Jiangsu province's highway network, with significant contributions from its core asset, the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway [10][38]. - The report anticipates steady growth in revenue and net profit, driven by the recovery of traffic demand and expansion of road assets [57][61]. Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Data - Closing price: 15.59 CNY - Total market capitalization: 78,538.48 million CNY - Total shares outstanding: 5,037.75 million shares - Debt-to-asset ratio: 44.67% [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2025: 22,128 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.61% - Projected net profit for 2025: 5,211 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.33% - Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025: 15.07 [6][8]. Investment Highlights - The company has a cumulative cash dividend of 246.85 billion CNY from 2014 to 2024, with a stable dividend per share of around 0.45 CNY [7][33]. - The company operates 19 toll road projects with approximately 1,000 kilometers of controlled or invested road mileage [14][38]. - The Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway contributes 55.22% of the total revenue from toll roads in 2024 [38]. Revenue Structure - Toll road revenue accounted for approximately 41.07% of total revenue in 2024, with construction period revenue from PPP projects contributing 46.84% [20][26]. - Investment income for 2024 is estimated at 17.80 billion CNY, representing 28.07% of operating profit [26][46]. Risk and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of macroeconomic conditions and the expansion of its road network, which will drive traffic volume and revenue growth [9][57]. - The diversification into financial services, renewable energy, and real estate is anticipated to enhance profitability and sustainability [45][51].

证券分析师 证券研究报告 机械设备 | 通用设备 北交所|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 17 日 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 月 | | | | | 年 | 04 | 日 | 16 | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | 18.88 | | | 一 年 内 低 | | 最 | 高 | / | 最 | | | | 26.00/6.84 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | 1,916.72 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | 777.90 | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | | | 101. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its market position and growth potential [5][8]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading domestic and globally known supplier of semiconductor testing equipment, focusing on analog and mixed-signal testing devices, and has successfully broken the monopoly of foreign manufacturers [7][10]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth in 2024, driven by the recovery of the semiconductor industry and increased demand from markets such as AI, new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, and IoT [21][42]. - The introduction of the STS8600 testing system is anticipated to create a second growth curve for the company, enhancing its product offerings in the SoC testing segment [10][44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the semiconductor testing equipment industry and has established itself as a leader in the domestic market [14]. - It has a clear shareholding structure with experienced management, which is crucial for its strategic direction and operational efficiency [14]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 905 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.05%, and a net profit of 334 million yuan, up 32.69% from the previous year [21][23]. - The testing system business generated 815 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a growth of 37.52%, and accounted for 90.02% of total revenue [23][25]. Market Outlook - The global semiconductor equipment sales are projected to reach a new high of 117.1 billion USD in 2024, with testing equipment sales expected to grow significantly due to rising demand from AI and high-bandwidth memory [33][39]. - The domestic market for semiconductor testing machines is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% from 2023 to 2027, indicating a robust demand for local manufacturers [40][42]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix in the analog, mixed-signal, and SoC testing equipment sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [16][44]. - The STS8300 testing system has gained significant market recognition, contributing to the company's increasing market share in the analog testing segment, projected to reach 36% in 2024 [43][44]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 430 million yuan, 564 million yuan, and 721 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.76%, 31.14%, and 27.87% [5][52]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are projected to be 46.77, 35.67, and 27.89, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][52].