证券研究报告 固收专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 17 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 纯债基金久期估算-区分利率与信用 ——基于 K-means 聚类算法和加权线性回归 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 久期是债券基金的核心风险指标，用于衡量投资组合对利率变动的敏感性。久期是 债券贴现现金流的加权平均到期时间，可以衡量债券价格对利率变动的敏感性，如 久期 5 年的债券在利率上升 1%时价格约下跌 5%。久期在市场中具有多重作用：一 是利率风险管理，通过调整久期对冲利率风险；二是优化投资组合，匹配资产与负 债久期以稳定净值；三是提升定价效率，为市场快速评估利率对债券估值的影响提 供依据。通过久期与凸性、信用评级等工具组合可构建多维风险评估框架，是平衡 收益与风险的关键工具。 我们基于债基净值回归法进行久期日频估算。主流的债基久期估算方法主要有三类： 一是基于重仓券的加权平均法，简单直观但存在低频和覆盖不足的缺陷；二是基于 利率敏感性的二阶泰勒展开法，数据权威但更新频 ...

证券研究报告 环保 | 环境治理 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 17 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 04 | 日 | 月 | 16 | 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | 3.41 | | | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | 4.14/3.01 | | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 20,947.55 | | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 20,947.55 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | 64.30 | | | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | 光大环境(00257.HK) ...

hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 17 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 交通运输 | 物流 非金融|公司点评报告 | 基本数据 | | 月 | | 年 | 04 | 16 | | 日 | | | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 48.53 | | | | | | 年 内 最 低 | 最 | | 高 | | | | | | / | 一 | | | （元） | | | | | | 72.95/41.28 | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 航运港口 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 16 日 证券分析师 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,237 | 1,515 | 1,654 | 2,130 | 2,529 | | 同比增长率（%） | 57.66% | 22.43% | 9.19% | 28.81% | 18.71% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 252 | 350 | 389 | 493 | 586 | | 同比增长率（%） | 22.28% | 38.95% | 11.10% | 26.64% | 18.94% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.90 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.76 | 2.09 | | ROE（%） | 11.43% | 13.76% | 13.44% | 14.77% | 15.18% | | 市盈率（P/E） | 15.85 | ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 | 医疗器械 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 16 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 林海霖 SAC：S1350524050002 linhailin@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 年 | 04 | 月 15 | | | | 2025 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 41.14 | | | | 一 年 内 高 低 | 最 | | | | 最 | / | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 5,540.13 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 5,540.13 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 134.67 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | | 21.06 | | | | 每股净资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with distributed power forecasting and the electricity trading market opening up significant growth opportunities [5][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 550 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.5%, and a net profit of 94 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [7] - The revenue from power forecasting products steadily increased, with a gross margin of 69.3%, and the number of customers reached 4,345 by the end of 2024 [7] - The company’s revenue from grid connection control systems grew by 28% year-on-year, driven by record new installations of wind and solar power in 2024 [7] - Innovative businesses such as electricity trading and virtual power plants are being actively developed, with a revenue growth of 24% year-on-year [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 784 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42.54% [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 143 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.91% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.43 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41.51 [6][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 11.07% in 2025 [6][8]

投资评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 环保 2025年4月16日 算力与电力协同，商业模式变革带来价值重估 ——IDC供电模式梳理 证券分析师： 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 查浩 S1350524060004 蔡思 S1350524070005 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 主要内容 1. 智算引领算力激增，算力电力有待协同 2. IDC供电探索多种模式，绿电直供/源网荷储新政提供支持 3. 垃圾焚烧：IDC直供带来企业价值重估 4. 绿电企业：绿电直供算力，电价/利用小时数更稳定 5. 风险提示 1.1 智算引领算力需求激增，算力的尽头是电力 ◼ 智算负载显著拉高算力需求，集约化发展下，数据中心向高功率密度方向发展 我国算力规模 以英伟达为例：单卡功率持续提升 资料来源：中国信通院，热传智能制造，华源证券研究所 注：EFlops是 "ExaFLOPS" 的缩写，中文名为 "艾弗洛普斯"，是衡量算力的一种单位。1EFlops 表示每秒可进行 10 的 18 次方次浮点运算 • 随着以ChatGpt、DeepSeek等为代表的大模型广泛应用，AI算力需求激增。根据中国信通院 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in procurement demand in 2025 despite short-term performance pressure due to delayed hospital procurement [5][7] - The company is expanding its potential business areas, particularly in minimally invasive surgery and cardiovascular intervention, despite facing challenges in its core ultrasound and endoscope businesses [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 142 million yuan, down 68.67% year-on-year [7] - The company's revenue from ultrasound business was 1.183 billion yuan (down 3.26% year-on-year), and endoscope-related revenue was 795 million yuan (down 6.44% year-on-year) [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 63.78%, a decrease of 3.93 percentage points year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.351 billion yuan, 2.724 billion yuan, and 3.147 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.72%, 15.88%, and 15.54% respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 376 million yuan, 488 million yuan, and 604 million yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 163.90%, 29.83%, and 23.84% respectively [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 36x, 27x, and 22x for 2025-2027 [7]

证券研究报告 证券分析师 有色金属 | 工业金属 非金融|公司点评报告 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | | | | 日 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | | 17.65 | | 最 低 | / | 内 | | | | | | | 最 | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | 469,094.18 | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid advancements in AI capabilities and the introduction of new models and protocols by Google during the 2025 Cloud Next conference, emphasizing the practical significance of the Agent2Agent (A2A) protocol for enhancing the application of AI agents across various scenarios [5][6] - The introduction of the seventh-generation TPU chip, Ironwood, significantly boosts AI inference capabilities, with peak performance reaching 42.5 EFLOPS, which is over 24 times that of the El Capitan supercomputer [16][15] Summary by Sections Google Cloud Next 2025 Conference - Google announced the launch of multiple AI models and tools, including the Gemini 2.5 Flash model, which features low latency and cost-effectiveness, and the A2A protocol that allows agents to collaborate on complex tasks [6][10] - The new models include Veo 2 for video generation, Lyria for music generation, Chirp 3 for voice synthesis, and Imagen 3 for image generation, all showcasing significant improvements over previous versions [7][8] A2A Protocol and Agent Ecosystem - The A2A protocol is designed to facilitate communication between different AI agents, enhancing their ability to work together and solve tasks, similar to how departments within a company collaborate [10][11] TPU Ironwood Release - The Ironwood TPU chip features 9216 chips with a peak FP8 performance of 4614 TFLOPS, and its energy efficiency is 30 times that of the previous TPU V2, making it suitable for handling larger models and datasets [16][17]