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明月镜片(301101):2024A、2025Q1业绩点评报告:产品升级持续兑现,盈利能力优化提升
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 09:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous product upgrades, leading to improved profitability. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 177 million yuan, up 12.21% year-on-year [1] - The "Light Control" series continues to lead sales, with a revenue of approximately 164 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.7%. The company has also launched new products to enhance near-sightedness prevention [2] - The company's gross margin has further improved, with a gross margin of 58.56% in 2024, an increase of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for 2024 was 22.95%, up 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 770 million yuan and a net profit of 177 million yuan, with a quarterly revenue of 197 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.63% [1] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 58.56%, with a net profit margin of 22.95% [3] Business Segments - The "Light Control" series generated sales of 173 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. The lens business revenue was 634 million yuan, up 6.50% year-on-year [2] - The company’s domestic business revenue reached 741 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while overseas revenue declined by 27.8% [2] Product Development - The company has introduced a series of new high-refractive index products and is actively exploring the potential market for smart glasses, aiming to provide comprehensive solutions for smart glasses manufacturers [4][9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 857 million yuan, 987 million yuan, and 1.119 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 201 million yuan, 235 million yuan, and 271 million yuan [10]
天孚通信(300394):2024年年报&2025年一季报点评:业绩符合预期,静待1.6T等新品放量
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 08:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 3.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.7%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, up 84.1% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast median [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 0.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.11%, and a net profit of 0.338 billion yuan, up 21.07% year-on-year, although there was a slight quarter-on-quarter decline due to factors such as the Spring Festival holiday [2] - The demand for optical engines driven by AI is rapidly increasing, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 20% for the optical module market from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end customer needs, with ongoing R&D projects in 1.6T, silicon photonics, and CPO technologies, while optimizing production processes to reduce costs [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.068 billion yuan, 2.922 billion yuan, and 4.016 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 25 for 2025 [5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 3.524 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 68%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, reflecting an 84% increase [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 2.90 yuan, with a PE ratio of 25.03 [6]
凯莱英(002821):新兴业务发力,看好持续性
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 08:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.541 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 10.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 327 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 15.83%. The non-recurring net profit was 305 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20.14% [1] - The emerging business segment saw revenue growth exceeding 80% year-over-year, driven by increased market expansion efforts and enhanced competitiveness, particularly in peptide, oligonucleotide, and ADC businesses. The outlook for the emerging business remains positive [1][2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 42.54%, with the emerging business gross margin significantly improving to 33.05%, a year-over-year increase of 15.75%. This improvement is attributed to higher capacity utilization from sustained order deliveries [2] - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 2.90, 3.45, and 4.19 yuan, respectively, with a PE ratio of 23 times based on the closing price on April 23, 2025. The company is expected to maintain strong growth potential, particularly in the emerging business segment [2] Financial Summary - For 2025E, the company expects revenue of 6.629 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 14.21%, and a net profit of 1.045 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.16% [7] - The gross margin is projected to be 42.43% in 2025E, with a net margin of 15.72% [8] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 21.751 billion yuan by 2025E, with total liabilities of 2.771 billion yuan [8]
亚钾国际:2024年报&2025Q1点评:产销稳定增长,公司业绩超预期-20250424
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 08:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in production and sales, with performance exceeding expectations. In 2024, the total revenue was 3.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.892 billion yuan, down 30.00% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a revenue increase of 5.86% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 40.44% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue surged by 91.47% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 376.02% year-on-year [1][2][8]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Growth - The company has maintained growth in production and sales, with 2024 production reaching 1.8154 million tons, up 10.24% year-on-year, and sales of 1.7414 million tons, up 8.42% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, production was 0.5062 million tons, a 17.72% increase year-on-year, and sales were 0.5283 million tons, a 76.98% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Market Conditions - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a slight recovery, with the average price of potassium chloride in Q1 2025 increasing by 16.07% year-on-year. As of April 23, 2025, the domestic average price of potassium chloride rose by 17.49% from its low point earlier in the year, indicating a potential recovery in industry conditions [2][3]. Resource and Cost Management - The company possesses abundant potassium mineral resources, with a total mineral rights area of 263.3 square kilometers and a potassium ore reserve exceeding 6 billion tons. The tax rate for the company's subsidiary in Laos will be reduced from 35% to 20% from 2024 to 2028, which is expected to lower overall costs [3]. Capacity Expansion and Non-Potassium Business - The company is actively expanding its potassium chloride production capacity, aiming for an annual increase of 1 million tons. The first 1 million tons/year project has already reached production, and additional projects are in progress. The company is also developing non-potassium resources, including a bromine production project that is expected to support its growth in the chemical industry [3][8].
永新股份:点评报告:Q1薄膜持续放量,业绩平稳增长-20250424
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 08:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 848 million (up 2% YoY) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 89 million (up 3% YoY) [1][2] - The film business continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue growth, while the printing business faces pricing pressure due to weak downstream demand [2][3] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects, ensuring long-term revenue growth [3] - Cost control measures are in place, and a potential improvement in gross margin is expected in Q2 2025 due to declining raw material prices [4] Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 848 million, with the printing business facing a 3% decline in revenue but a 0.5% increase in sales volume [2] - The film business is expected to continue its rapid growth, significantly contributing to revenue in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.30%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points YoY, primarily due to pricing pressure in the printing business and a higher proportion of lower-margin film products [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 62.26% YoY, indicating improved sales collection capabilities [4] Capacity and Investment Summary - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a 22,000-ton functional film material expansion project and a 40,000-ton smart printing factory project [3] - The expected return on investment for these projects is 32.7% and 43.59%, with payback periods of approximately 3.15 years and 3.21 years, respectively [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.89 billion, 4.29 billion, and 4.76 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 508 million, 562 million, and 631 million [5] - The company is considered a high-dividend, stable growth stock with a current PE ratio of 13.77X for 2025 [5]
债市专题研究:如何看待下一阶段关税走向
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 07:54
证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 04 月 24 日 如何看待下一阶段关税走向 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 美国关税谈判或由高压威胁转为软化和谈,特朗普政府具有急于达成首份关税贸易协 定的内在动机。下一阶段中美贸易摩擦事态升级或达成协议的可能性均较为有限,最 早或于上半年得见和谈信号,2025 年内存在中美达成关税贸易协定的潜在路径。 ❑ 关税谈判或由高压威胁转向软化和谈 近期美国国内两大争端或值得关注,一是纳瓦罗与贝森特之争,对等关税暂停实 施被认为是以贝森特为代表的谈判派的胜利;二是特朗普与鲍威尔之争,特朗普 正面回应并不寻求解除鲍威尔职务,但仍重申对鲍威尔的批评。我们认为上述争 端所传达出的核心思想或是美国在关税政策的高压威胁阶段已逐步过去,国内压 力驱动下美国或将更为迫切地寻求达成关税谈判。一方面对等关税政策对美股市 场造成沉重打击,市场情绪仍较为低迷;另一方面受通胀预期高企、美国政府债 务可持续问题、美债基差交易逆转等因素影响,美债风险仍待解决。近期美股美 债表现承压对美元汇率形成直接压力,加之特朗普关税政策对国际贸易体系的直 接挑战,或进一 ...
永新股份(002014):点评报告:Q1薄膜持续放量,业绩平稳增长
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 07:38
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 848 million (up 2% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 89 million (up 3% year-on-year) in Q1 2025, indicating stable growth despite a high base from the previous year [1] - The revenue growth is primarily driven by the continuous expansion of the film business, while the printing business faces pricing pressure due to weak downstream demand and intensified competition [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and has announced investments in new functional film materials projects, which are expected to enhance its market competitiveness and support long-term revenue growth [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.30%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to pricing pressures in the printing business and a higher proportion of lower-margin film products [4] - The company has improved its cash flow management, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 62.26% year-on-year, indicating enhanced sales collection capabilities [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.89 billion, 4.29 billion, and 4.76 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing growth rates of 10.34%, 10.28%, and 10.93% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 508 million, 562 million, and 631 million in the same years, with growth rates of 8.7%, 10.54%, and 12.24% respectively [5] - The current P/E ratios are projected to be 13.77X, 12.46X, and 11.10X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for investors [5]
拓邦股份:2025年一季报点评:工具和家电加速增长,智能汽车及机器人保持高增-20250424
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 07:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.67 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 197 million yuan, up 12% year-on-year [1][2] - The company's gross margin improved to 24%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year and 2.85 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The tools and home appliances segment showed robust growth, while the smart automotive and robotics segments maintained high growth rates [1][2] - The digital energy business experienced a decline in revenue due to technological upgrades and product structure adjustments [2] - The robotics business saw rapid growth in various products, including lawn mowers and service robots, with significant market breakthroughs in commercial cooking machines [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 671 million yuan, up 30% year-on-year [7] - The revenue structure is as follows: tools and home appliances account for 76%, digital energy and smart automotive for 20%, and robotics for 4% [7] - The company aims for revenue targets of 11.6 billion yuan, 13.8 billion yuan, and 16 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit targets of 800 million yuan, 960 million yuan, and 1.15 billion yuan [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19, 15, and 12 respectively, indicating a low valuation with high growth potential [7] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in smart controllers in China, with its hollow cup motors for humanoid robots expected to open new market opportunities [7] - The company has established a leading position in the hollow cup motor market, with mass production capabilities and a strong technical foundation [7]
丰立智能:点评报告:业绩短期承压,与星动纪元签战略合作、人形机器人领域加速-20250424
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 07:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, but there is an expectation for accelerated growth in the humanoid robot sector following a strategic partnership with Xingdong Jiyuan [1][2] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 505 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 30.3% to 17 million yuan [1] - The humanoid robot revenue in 2024 is anticipated to be 816,000 yuan, with significant clients including Xingdong Jiyuan and Bosch [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 505 million yuan, with a growth rate of 18%, and a net profit of 17 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 30% [5] - The first quarter of 2025 shows revenue of 117 million yuan, an 18.2% increase year-on-year, but net profit is down 36% to 3 million yuan [1] - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 24 million, 68 million, and 102 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 42%, 186%, and 49% [4][5]
农业:心中的「涨」声②——玉米
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 07:00
证券研究报告 心中的「涨」声② ——玉米 2025年4月24日 行业评级:看好 | 分析师 | 钟凯锋 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | Zhongkaifeng@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230524050002 | | 分析师 | 张心怡 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | Zhangxinyi@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230524020002 | 摘要 ➢ 1、市场背景 美国、中国、巴西、阿根廷是全球玉米总产量最高的4个国家,其中美国是全球第一大玉米产国,占比32%,也是 全球第一大出口国。近年来,我国玉米生产总体呈稳定增长态势。进口量先增后减,2024年进口依赖度降至1.6%。 玉米消费需求主要包括饲用、工业用、食用、种用及其它。其中,饲料消费是玉米最大的消费去向,近年来一直 呈刚性增长。 ➢ 2、供需由宽松走向紧张 2025年,全球玉米供需收紧,国内供应压力同比或将减轻;养殖存栏量预期增加,或带动饲料消费刚性增长;内 需政策将促进玉米深加工行业消费,国内玉米供需将呈偏紧趋势,价格重心有望抬升。 ➢ 3、风险提示: 极端天 ...