1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the global corn supply - demand situation will tighten, and the domestic supply pressure may ease year - on - year. The expected increase in livestock inventory may drive the rigid growth of feed consumption, and domestic demand policies will boost the consumption of the corn deep - processing industry. The domestic corn supply - demand will be in a tight trend, and the price center is expected to rise [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Background - The United States, China, Brazil, and Argentina are the top four corn - producing countries in the world, with the US accounting for 32% of global production and being the largest exporter. China's corn production has shown a stable growth trend. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 1.6%. Corn consumption mainly includes feed, industrial, food, seed, and other uses, with feed consumption being the largest and showing rigid growth [4] - China's corn industry chain includes planting, processing, circulation, and consumption. Feed and starch processing are at the core of the industry chain [13] - Global corn supply is concentrated in a few countries. The US and China are the top two producers, accounting for 32% and 23% respectively. The top four exporters are the US, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, with their combined exports accounting for nearly 70% of the global total in 2023/24 [16] - Global corn is concentrated in supply every six months. The growth cycles of China and the US in the Northern Hemisphere are similar, while Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere has two planting seasons [23] - The US and China are the largest corn consumers, with a combined consumption of over half of the global total in 2023/24. China's average annual growth rate of corn demand in the past decade was 4.3%, higher than the US's 0.6% [29] - Feed consumption is the largest use of corn, with a global consumption of 780 million tons in 2024, accounting for 63% of the total. The US is the largest in industrial consumption [34] - In China, corn planting is concentrated in the Northeast, North, and Southwest regions, with different planting patterns and acreage proportions in different areas [35][37] - China's corn production has been growing steadily. The planting area increased from 620 million mu to 670 million mu from 2020 - 2024, and the output increased from 261 million tons to 295 million tons. The import volume first increased and then decreased, with the import dependence dropping to 1.6% in 2024 [42] 3.2 Supply Decrease and Demand Increase - **Domestic Old - crop Corn**: The supply pressure has been reduced. The output increased slightly by 2.1% to 295 million tons in 2024/25. The import decreased by 49% to 1.377 million tons. The inventory is expected to drop by 87% to 230,000 tons, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased by 5 pct to 0.8% [49] - **Global Old - crop Corn**: The stock - to - use ratio decreased year - on - year. The estimated output (excluding China) in 2024/25 was adjusted up by 930,000 tons to 920 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The ending inventory decreased by 16.1% to 86.47 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio dropped by 0.2 pct to 9.3%. The US corn export volume was adjusted up by 3 million tons to 65 million tons [55] - **Domestic New - crop Corn**: The supply growth has slowed down. The planting enthusiasm may be affected due to weak prices and reduced profits in 2024. The import volume is expected to decrease, with the predicted import volume in 2024/2025 being adjusted down by 2 million tons to 7 million tons [58][61] - **Demand**: Feed demand is expected to be supported by the increase in the number of sows and good pig - raising profits. Deep - processing demand is currently mainly for rigid needs, and domestic demand expansion policies are expected to boost it [66]

丰立智能(301368) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通用设备 业绩短期承压，与星动纪元签战略合作、人形机器人领域加速 ——丰立智能点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 2024 年&2025Q1 业绩：短期承压，期待人形机器人领域加速打开空间 1）2024 年业绩：营收 5.05 亿元，同比增长 17.6%；归母净利润 0.17 亿元，同 比下滑 30.3%。毛利率 14.9%，同比-2.2pct；净利率 3.3%，同比-2.3pct。 收入结构——老业务：智能家居：2.3 亿元、毛利率 26.2%；气动工具：1.2 亿 元、毛利率 13.1%；新业务：减速机：1.2 亿元、毛利率 2.1%；新能源传动： 0.29 亿元、毛利率-12.4%。 2）2025 年一季报业绩：营收 1.17 亿元，同比增长 18.2%；归母净利润 0.03 亿 元，同比下滑 36%。毛利率 12.5%，同比+0.2pct；净利率 2.5%，同比-2.1pct。 3）人形机器人加速突破：2024 年公司实现人形机器人收入 81.6 万元，开发 的客户包括星动纪元、宇树、三花等。2025 年 Q1， ...

证券研究报告 机构持仓比例提升， AI板块增持明显 —— 2025年Q1计算机行业持仓分析 行业评级：看好 2025年4月22日 分析师 刘雯蜀 邮箱 liuwenshu03@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523020002 分析师 叶光亮 邮箱 yeguangliang@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230524080010 2025年Q1计算机行业机构持仓情况总结 资料来源：Wind、浙商证券研究所；统计范围：重仓持股（汇总）-公募基金-全部基金，根据申万一级行业指数（2021）分类 2 1、行业持仓比例提高，但仍处于低位水平 ➢ 2025Q1计算机行业重仓股配置比例为3.10%， 环比上升0.35Pcts，行业配置比例是向上趋势； ➢ 2025Q1行业持仓比例依然是较低水平，低于行业标准配置比例1.44Pcts，与行业标配比例的差距缩小。 2、重仓股规模增加，行业持仓集中度下降 ➢ 2025Q1计算机行业重仓股规模为939亿元，较24Q4季度重仓股规模增加126亿元，环比上升15.55%。 ➢ 前十大重仓股规模合计546亿元，占行业整体持仓规模比重为58.18%，较2024 ...

Market Overview - On April 23, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.08%. The STAR Market 50 fell by 0.35%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.08%. The Hang Seng Index saw a gain of 2.37% [4] - The best-performing industries on April 23 were automotive (+3.21%), machinery equipment (+2.47%), telecommunications (+1.73%), electric power equipment (+1.18%), and electronics (+0.91%). The worst-performing industries included retail (-1.85%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.39%), real estate (-1.38%), non-ferrous metals (-1.26%), and beauty care (-0.95%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on April 23 was 12,624.62 billion yuan, with net outflow of southbound funds amounting to 9.905 billion HKD [4] Important Recommendations Greenfield Machinery (605259) - The company is recognized as a hidden leader in high-pressure cleaning machines, with growth driven by the recovery of overseas non-US demand and an increase in market share [5] - Key points include: - Overseas demand and domestic market penetration rates for high-pressure cleaning machines have exceeded expectations [5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2,092 million, 2,848 million, and 3,671 million yuan, with growth rates of 28.64%, 36.12%, and 28.88% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 193 million, 257 million, and 311 million yuan, with growth rates of 7.07%, 33.19%, and 21.21% [5] - Catalysts for growth include unexpected demand from Europe or emerging markets and the release of production capacity [5] Huichuan Technology (300124) - The company is positioned as a leader in industrial control, with its humanoid robot business opening new growth avenues [7] - Key points include: - The industrial control cycle is expected to recover, and the new energy vehicle business is entering a profit-contributing phase [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 37,574 million, 45,456 million, and 54,600 million yuan, with growth rates of 24%, 21%, and 20% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 4,922 million, 5,827 million, and 6,928 million yuan, with growth rates of 4%, 18%, and 19% [8] - Catalysts for growth include the recovery of the manufacturing sector and accelerated commercialization of humanoid robots [8] Important Insights Giant Star Technology (002444) - The company has shown impressive operational quality, and its capacity restructuring is expected to lead to a new round of valuation reconstruction [9] - Investment opportunities include: - The comparative advantage of overseas capacity and the scarcity of resources in the tool industry, particularly in Southeast Asia [9] - Catalysts for growth include unexpected overseas capacity construction, easing trade tensions, and resilient end-demand [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 23.73 times for 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.108 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 234 million yuan, up 5.77% year-on-year [1]. - The product structure is improving, with products priced above 100 yuan accounting for 80% of total sales in Q1 2025, and the proportion of products priced above 300 yuan increasing by 4.43 percentage points to 22.35% [2]. - The company is focusing on consumer cultivation and product structure upgrades in its home province while targeting model market development in other provinces [3]. - Financial indicators show an increase in gross margin to 66.81% and net margin to 20.79%, driven by product structure upgrades [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 1.108 billion yuan and a net profit of 234 million yuan, reflecting growth of 3.04% and 5.77% respectively [1]. Product Structure - The product structure is on an upward trend, with high-end products leading sales growth. The revenue from products priced above 300 yuan increased by 28.14% year-on-year [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the home province reached 857 million yuan, up 1.05%, while revenue from outside the province grew by 9.48% to 238 million yuan [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin improved to 66.81%, and the net margin increased to 20.79%, attributed to product structure upgrades and effective marketing strategies [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve 3.28 billion yuan in revenue and 408 million yuan in net profit for the full year, with projected revenue growth rates of 10.20%, 10.46%, and 10.71% for 2025 to 2027 [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term TS may continue to be weaker than T and TL due to weak market expectations for central bank interest rate cuts, high capital prices, weaker short - end spot and futures bonds compared to long - end, and the persistence of TS positive arbitrage and hedging strategies [1][35] - The current curve is extremely flat, short - end is significantly affected by capital pricing, and the short - end long - position driving force is limited before the capital price drops significantly [1][14] - Institutions such as funds short futures for hedging to offset interest rate fluctuation risks, and many institutions turn to coupon strategies [2][14] - TS positive arbitrage strategy is a key factor in the decline of TS, with the IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver bond in TS higher than the capital price and a continuous negative basis [3][27] - The main contract of TS is accelerating the switch from TS2506 to TS2509, and TS2506 may perform weaker [4][28] - The possible switch of the cheapest - to - deliver bond of TS2506 from 240024 to 250006 restricts the performance of TS2506 [5][33] Summary by Directory 1 TS in Decline - Since mid - March, the TS contract has been significantly weaker than TF/T/TL contracts. The T main - continuous contract price rose by 1.77% from March 17 to April 22, while the TS main - continuous contract price nearly dropped back to the mid - March low. TS also performed weaker than 2 - year treasury bond spot [12] - Reasons for the decline of TS: - The curve is extremely flat, short - end is affected by capital pricing, and the short - end long - position driving force is limited due to the obvious negative carry and slow decline of the capital price center [14] - Institutions such as funds short TS for hedging. In the current interest rate shock trend, many institutions turn to coupon strategies, and shorting TS can hedge part of the bond market decline risk. The net purchase scale of short - term interest - rate bonds by funds has slowed down since April, while the net purchase scale of short - term credit bonds has increased [2][14][20] - TS positive arbitrage strategy is a key factor. The IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver bond in TS is about 2.3%, significantly higher than the 1.75% - 1.80% return of 1 - year NCD [3][27] - The main contract is accelerating the switch from TS2506 to TS2509. The reasons may be that institutions such as brokers short TS2506 and long TS2509, and non - traditional investors such as funds mainly use TS2509 for hedging and positive arbitrage [4][28] - The possible switch of the cheapest - to - deliver bond of TS2506 from 240024 to 250006 restricts the performance of TS2506 [5][33] - Outlook: Short - term TS may continue to be weaker than T and TL. The 10 - year - 2 - year treasury bond term spread has reached the lowest point since 2020, and the probability of the short - end spot bond weakening significantly again is small [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for 德昌股份 is "Add" [4] Core Views - The company reported an annual revenue of 4.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, up 27.5% year-on-year [1][2] - The home appliance business exceeded expectations, generating 3.51 billion yuan in revenue, a 43% increase year-on-year, while the automotive parts business saw a significant growth of 105%, reaching 410 million yuan [2] - The company achieved a quarterly revenue of 1.11 billion yuan in Q4, reflecting a 71.4% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the addition of new projects [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 410 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 10.0%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The automotive parts business turned profitable for the first time, with a gross margin of 21.7%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points year-on-year, surpassing the main business of home appliance OEM [3] - The company optimized its expense ratios, with reductions in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 500 million yuan, 600 million yuan, and 720 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 20.4%, and 19.0% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are estimated at 15x, 12x, and 10x [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, market risk appetite rebounded, leading to a slight decrease in overall bank holdings by institutions. There is an increased preference for cyclical and high-dividend stocks among institutional funds [1][2] - The overall public fund holdings in bank stocks decreased slightly, with a 1.5% decline compared to Q4 2024. Active public funds saw a significant decrease of 19.6% in holdings, while index funds and northbound capital increased by 7.4% and 0.8%, respectively [1][4] - Institutions are increasingly favoring mid-sized banks with strong fundamentals and high dividends, with notable increases in holdings for banks such as Shanghai, CITIC, Qingdao, Chongqing, and Ruifeng [2] - Northbound capital holdings remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.8% in Q1 2025. However, there was significant outflow from state-owned banks [2][3] Summary by Sections Institutional Holdings - By the end of Q1 2025, the proportion of institutional holdings in state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by -0.8pc, +0.2pc, +0.3pc, and remained flat, respectively [1] - Active public funds reduced their holdings significantly, while passive public funds increased their positions in high-dividend banks [3][4] Individual Bank Performance - The banks with the largest increases in institutional holdings include Shanghai Bank (+3.9pc), CITIC Bank (+3.0pc), Qingdao Bank (+2.2pc), Chongqing Bank (+2.1pc), and Ruifeng Bank (+1.9pc) [2] - The index funds continued to increase their holdings in bank stocks, with a 7.4% rise in holdings by the end of Q1 2025, particularly in Shanghai Bank [3] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, emphasizing the combination of low risk appetite and low risk-free interest rates as favorable conditions for banks. The focus is on low volatility, high dividend yield, and banks located in economically developed regions [5] - Key recommendations include Pudong Development Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Chengdu Bank, along with high-dividend stocks like CITIC Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Construction Bank [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries will exceed market expectations, predicting 848,000 units by 2026, with the YU7 model contributing 360,000 units [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 356.6 billion CNY and 469.5 billion CNY, respectively, which are 16% and 31% higher than Bloomberg consensus [1] - The automotive business is expected to enhance Xiaomi's profit margins and expand its ecosystem barriers, driving a surge in dealer store openings [1][6] Summary by Sections Automotive Business Impact - Xiaomi's automotive business is projected to achieve profitability in 2025, with adjusted profits exceeding 10 billion CNY in 2026, driven by the success of the SU7 and YU7 models [6][13] - The SU7 model is expected to maintain a steady monthly sales volume of around 25,000 units in 2025, capturing approximately 23.13% of the 200,000-300,000 CNY price segment [28] - The YU7 is anticipated to capture a 16.2% market share in the 200,000-250,000 CNY SUV segment, with projected annual sales of 360,000 units [28] Ecosystem Expansion - Xiaomi's automotive sales are expected to create a "flywheel effect," enhancing the profitability of Xiaomi's retail stores and driving a surge in new store openings [29][36] - The integration of the Xiaomi HyperOS across over 200 product categories is set to facilitate data interconnectivity and enhance user experience across the "people, car, home" ecosystem [32][34] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 481.84 billion CNY, 636.48 billion CNY, and 716.47 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.7%, 32.1%, and 12.6% respectively [7][39] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 416.42 billion CNY, 613.35 billion CNY, and 655.96 billion CNY, with growth rates of 52.9%, 47.3%, and 6.9% [7][39] - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating a target price of 56.12 HKD per share based on a 20x PE for core business and a 3x PS for the automotive segment [42][43]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic supplier of electronic ceramics and third-generation semiconductors, focusing on the core track of domestic self-control. It has achieved mass supply of precision ceramic components, addressing critical supply chain issues, and its valuation is expected to improve [1][2]. - The company has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% in revenue and 35% in net profit from 2016 to 2021, and it has opened new market opportunities following significant asset restructuring in 2023 [1][2]. - The electronic ceramics market in China is projected to reach nearly 100 billion, with a domestic production rate of only 23%, indicating substantial room for growth [1][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Ceramics and Third-Generation Semiconductors - The company is backed by China Electronics Technology Group and has established itself as a benchmark for self-control in the industry. It has successfully expanded into the third-generation semiconductor market through strategic acquisitions [16][25]. - The dual focus on electronic ceramics and third-generation semiconductors positions the company as a leader in domestic substitution and technological innovation [25][26]. 2. AI-Driven Upgrades in Optical Modules - The demand for high-end optical modules is expected to surge, with the company already achieving mass production of 800G optical communication device shells, comparable to international products [1][44][69]. - The company is investing in the construction of production lines for electronic ceramic shells, which will continue to release capacity and potentially lead to a performance inflection point [1][69]. 3. Precision Ceramic Components Breakthrough - The market for advanced structural ceramics in China is expected to reach approximately 28.6 billion by 2025, with the current domestic production rate at only 20% [79]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in the domestic production of key components used in semiconductor equipment, which are expected to contribute significantly to profits and enhance valuation [1][76]. 4. Acquisition of Bowei and Guolian Wanzhong - The company completed a major asset restructuring in 2023, acquiring Bowei and Guolian Wanzhong to deepen its involvement in the third-generation semiconductor sector [2][19]. - Bowei focuses on GaN RF chips, with a market size of approximately 10.3 billion in 2023, while Guolian Wanzhong specializes in SiC automotive chips, benefiting from the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market [2][20]. 5. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 538 million, 701 million, and 876 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 30%, and 25% [3][10].