Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - TeenieWeenie, as a mid-to-high-end collegiate casual wear brand, is expected to drive profitability beyond expectations through multiple initiatives, including enhancing offline efficiency and leveraging IP licensing business growth [5][17] - The company is anticipated to return to a positive growth trajectory in 2025, supported by ongoing adjustments in its offline store structure and the expansion of flagship stores [5][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecast - Projected revenue for 2023 is 4,544.93 million, with a growth of 16.55%. For 2024, a decline of 3.06% is expected, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 6.32% in 2025 and 5.41% in 2026 [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 298 million in 2023, with a significant increase of 316.76%. A slight decline of 5.79% is expected in 2024, followed by growth of 15.66% in 2025 and 12.45% in 2026 [8][11] Operational Strategy - The company has been actively closing inefficient stores and transitioning from direct operation to franchising, resulting in a net reduction of 104 direct stores in the first three quarters of 2024 [17] - New store formats, including flagship and concept stores, are being introduced in key urban areas to enhance customer traffic and retail performance [17] IP Licensing Business - The IP licensing business, established in 2020, has shown remarkable growth with a CAGR of 112% from 2021 to 2023, and revenue in the first half of 2024 reached 14.07 million, up 118% year-on-year [17] - This segment is expected to become a new growth point for the TeenieWeenie brand, catering to diverse lifestyle needs of younger consumers [17] Valuation Analysis - The current market capitalization is 3.5 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 12.3 for 2024, 10.7 for 2025, and 9.5 for 2026. A target PE of 14X for 2025 suggests a potential market cap of 4.5 billion, indicating an upside of 30% from the current valuation [17]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [31][53]. Core Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for rare earths are improving, which is beneficial for the profitability of magnetic material companies [28][50]. - The company has established a core technology system and is deeply engaged with leading manufacturers in various downstream sectors, indicating a strong competitive position [28][30]. - The company is expected to experience a significant recovery in profits due to stable supply-side indicators and a favorable demand environment, particularly in the context of global monetary easing [28][30][81]. Supply Side Summary - The supply growth rate for rare earths is showing signs of a turning point, with China's mining indicators set at 190,000 tons for 2024, remaining stable for six consecutive years [2][5]. - The first batch of mining indicators for this year increased by 6% year-on-year, while the smelting indicators rose by 4% [5][83]. - The report notes that overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar, is facing challenges, and significant increases in production from other mines are unlikely before 2027 [6][11]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for rare earths is expected to remain resilient, particularly in the context of the global economic environment, which is conducive to price recovery [28][82]. - The report highlights the growing demand for neodymium-iron-boron materials driven by the electric vehicle sector, with projections indicating substantial increases in production requirements [21][22]. Company Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.97 billion, 2.77 billion, and 4.13 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 143%, 184%, and 49% [31][56]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.09, 0.25, and 0.38 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of approximately 84.5, 29.7, and 20.0 [31][56]. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses leading production capacity in the industry, with a current capacity of 21,000 tons and plans for an additional 15,000 tons by 2025-2026 [51][36]. - The company has successfully penetrated the humanoid robot market, achieving mass production supply status for a domestic client in the third quarter of 2024, indicating diversification and growth potential [30][36].

- The report discusses the impact of "Guo Jiu Tiao" on micro-cap stocks, indicating that the sentiment suppression has been fully priced in, and trading enthusiasm is expected to recover before the Spring Festival[1][8][9] - The report highlights the potential increase in passive funds for the STAR Market, estimating an incremental inflow of approximately 5.5 billion RMB based on the average scale of recently issued STAR-related funds[2][10] - Consumption and STAR Market are identified as key investment themes for 2025, supported by favorable policies and trading dynamics. Consumption is noted for its low expectations and low institutional holdings, while STAR Market is expected to benefit from high trading enthusiasm and thematic-driven transactions[3][11]

钢铁周报：产业链基本面健康，成本支撑仍存 行业评级：看好 2024 年 12 月 29 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------|--------------------------|----------|---------------------------| | | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 1 价格 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------|---------|--------------------------------------------|----------|----------------| | | 价格 | | 浙商金属 <钢铁> 周度数据（2024年11月29日） | 周涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading offline retailer in Shandong, undergoing business transformation and upgrades, with accelerated loss reduction in provinces outside its core area, and new business formats opening up growth opportunities [1] - The retail sector is expected to recover, with CPI for consumer goods likely turning positive year-on-year in Q3-Q4 2024, which may drive same-store sales growth [2] - The company is shifting from price competition to experience enhancement, with store renovations expected to boost sales [3] - The company has seen significant improvement in revenue and profitability from its operations outside its core region, with a notable increase in gross margin [4] - New business formats are being tested and expanded, including discount and bakery stores, which are expected to contribute positively to profitability [5][12] Summary by Sections Business Transformation and Upgrades - The company is focusing on upgrading its main business, with expectations for same-store sales recovery as the macroeconomic environment improves [2] - Store renovations have led to a reduction in homogenized products and an introduction of personalized items, enhancing customer experience and potentially increasing foot traffic and daily sales [3] Loss Reduction in Outlying Provinces - The company has adjusted its strategy to improve profitability in provinces like Inner Mongolia and Hebei, with revenue from these areas showing an 8.29% year-on-year increase [4] - Significant improvements in profitability have been noted, particularly in Inner Mongolia, where profits increased by 240% year-on-year [4] New Business Formats - The company is rapidly testing new business formats, including discount stores and bakeries, which are expected to enhance profitability [5][12] - The discount model is being implemented alongside a bakery brand, which has expanded to 50 stores nationwide, focusing on high-quality, cost-effective products [13] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 182.69 billion, 194.83 billion, and 202.36 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.28 billion, 2.79 billion, and 3.35 billion yuan [15] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio of 32X, 26X, and 22X for the respective years, with a target market value of 111 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a potential upside of approximately 55% [15]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [21] Core Views - The report emphasizes the government's first top-level design policy for nuclear technology applications, which is expected to accelerate industry development [45] - The company is backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, which is anticipated to provide various resources and synergies in nuclear power and renewable energy sectors, aligning with the company's strategy of transitioning to high-end and high-value-added operations [45] - The report highlights the ongoing reforms in state-owned enterprises, which are expected to enhance asset management and business integration, creating significant growth potential [45] Industry Data - The public utility sector index increased by 1.19%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.16%, while the environmental protection sector index decreased by 1.53%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.89% [33][34] - As of December 27, 2024, the public utility (Shenwan) PE (TTM) is 17.77 times, and PB (LF) is 1.57 times; the environmental protection (Shenwan) PE (TTM) is 21.76 times, and PB (LF) is 1.45 times [33][72] Key Investment Points - In the public utility sector, the report recommends focusing on individual stocks such as China General Nuclear Technology, Fuan Energy, and Zhongmin Energy [20] - The report suggests that the green electricity operation sector is expected to benefit from policies encouraging high-energy-consuming industries to participate in green certificate trading, which may further enhance the value of green electricity [45] - The report also highlights the importance of thermal power in stabilizing the electricity system, especially during peak winter demand, and suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises in the thermal power sector [45] - In the environmental protection sector, the report recommends stocks like Jingjin Equipment, Weiming Environmental Protection, and Yingfeng Environment, indicating that the overall industry valuation remains at historical lows [45]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) [5][6] Core Views - US interest rate cuts are expected to drive a recovery in the housing market, which will boost home appliance consumption Historically, during periods of declining US Treasury yields, home appliance retail sales growth has ranged between 0% and 5%, with occasional spikes above 10% due to base effects [1] - North American home appliance consumption is closely tied to the real estate cycle, with a lag of about one quarter between home sales and appliance purchases Approximately 15% and 25% of US home appliance consumption comes from new and existing homes, respectively [1] - GEA's local production capacity in North America mitigates tariff risks GEA operates 9 manufacturing plants, 2 R&D centers, 4 dispatch centers, 4 parts distribution centers, and 157 local distribution centers in the US, ensuring minimal exposure to tariff impacts [1] - The replacement of old appliances is driving premium consumption, benefiting Haier's high-end brand Casarte The average prices of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines have increased by 6 5%, 9 1%, and 11 8% respectively since the launch of the replacement program [14] - Casarte's sales have surged, with refrigerators and washing machines seeing year-on-year retail sales growth of 41% and 78% respectively in November [14] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 270 2 billion in 2024 to CNY 304 0 billion in 2026, with annual growth rates of 3%, 6%, and 6% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from CNY 19 1 billion in 2024 to CNY 25 0 billion in 2026, with annual growth rates of 15%, 14%, and 14% respectively [5] - The PE ratio for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 14x and 12x respectively [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from CNY 1 77 in 2024 to CNY 2 66 in 2026 [18] Industry and Market Trends - The home appliance sector typically outperforms during the valuation rotation period from December to January [5] - Haier Smart Home's current PE-TTM valuation percentile for 2024 is 44%, lower than peers such as Midea Group (91%), Gree Electric (73%), and Hisense Home Appliances (52%), indicating potential for outperformance in the valuation rotation cycle [17] Operational Highlights - Haier's local production capacity in North America through GEA provides a competitive edge against tariff risks [1] - The replacement of old appliances is driving a shift towards higher price segments, with refrigerators priced above CNY 8,000 and washing machines above CNY 6,000 seeing increased market share [14] - The Chinese government's continued support for domestic demand, including the extension of home appliance replacement subsidies into 2025, is expected to sustain growth for premium brands like Casarte [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [109] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is entering a phase that emphasizes growth quality, with companies increasingly focusing on cash flow stability and product commercialization [1][64] - Significant changes in business models are observed, including a shift from service-oriented companies back to product-oriented ones, the emergence of REITs in the pharmaceutical sector, and the rise of NewCo as a popular financing model for innovative drugs [1][58][60] - The industry is experiencing a transition driven by policy changes, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and adapting to new market dynamics [6][71] Summary by Sections Business Model Changes - The development of generic drugs is undergoing significant changes, with service-oriented companies reverting to product-focused models [1][31] - The first pharmaceutical REIT has been established, indicating a trend towards asset-light operations in warehousing [1][58] - NewCo has become a popular financing model for innovative drugs, allowing companies to separate assets and seek external funding [1][60] Policy Developments - As of December 26, 2024, the National Healthcare Security Administration has expanded the scope of employee medical insurance to include close relatives [2][65] - A meeting chaired by Li Qiang on December 24, 2024, emphasized the need for regulatory reforms in drug and medical device oversight to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical industry [2][66] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index (CI005018) fell by 1.77% in the week of December 23-27, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.36 percentage points [3][68] - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at 26.97 times PE, reflecting a decline and a relative premium of 118% over the CSI 300 index [3][69] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies significant heterogeneity in the performance of various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, with particular attention to chemical preparations, medical consumables, and medical devices showing favorable trends [6][72] - Recommended stocks for 2025 include Kelun Pharmaceutical, Enhua Pharmaceutical, Jiutian Pharmaceutical, and others, indicating a focus on companies with strong growth potential [6][73]

Market Analysis Tools - Tool 1: Industry Scoring Table combines subjective and objective information, focusing on six core factors: prosperity, valuation, momentum, crowding, industry, and northbound capital[2] - Tool 2: Style Comparison Table emphasizes the impact of macro cycles, with six decision factors: momentum, valuation, crowding, prosperity, macro, and capital[2] Style and Industry Rankings - Top-ranked styles as of December 26, 2024: Large-cap value, mid-cap growth, and fund-heavy indices[2] - Top-ranked industries as of December 26, 2024: Banking, coal, petrochemicals, communications, home appliances, consumer services, non-banking finance, and food & beverage[2] Market Sentiment and Risk - Market risk appetite may be nearing its peak, with individual investor sentiment potentially topping out[2] - Short-term market focus is expected to shift towards stable factors like dividend yield, valuation, and earnings growth[126] Sector-Specific Insights - Home appliance sector: Exports remain strong with a 14.1% YoY growth in November 2024, supported by domestic policies[128] - Communication sector: ByteDance's capital expenditure is expected to double to 1600 billion yuan in 2025, benefiting the domestic computing power industry[130] Investment Strategy - Cross-use of Industry Scoring Table and Style Comparison Table is recommended for a comprehensive outlook on sector performance[131] - Preference for intersections of style and industry, with a priority on style[132]

GDP Revision and Economic Census - The Fifth Economic Census revised China's GDP upwards by 33,690 billion yuan, with 20,257 billion yuan (1.6% increase) from the census and 13,433 billion yuan (1.1% increase) from the reform of urban residents' housing service accounting method[2] - The revision increased the share of the tertiary industry by approximately 2.1 percentage points of GDP in 2023, with the tertiary industry revised upwards by 27,496 billion yuan[2] - The reform of the housing service accounting method from cost to rental increased the GDP by 13,433 billion yuan, accounting for about 1% of the revised 2023 GDP[3] Impact on Future GDP - The 2023 GDP revision is expected to have a limited impact on the 2024 GDP growth rate but will positively affect the nominal GDP scale in 2024[6] - Future economic censuses are likely to continue revising GDP upwards, particularly as the service industry develops, with expectations of further revisions by 2028[6] US-China GDP Comparison - The Fifth Economic Census has a positive impact on the nominal GDP comparison between China and the US, with China's nominal GDP expected to reach 70% of the US by 2027 under certain assumptions[7] - To achieve this, the USD to RMB exchange rate would need to adjust to 6.6 by 2027, with intermediate steps of 7.1 in 2025 and 6.8 in 2026[7] Policy and Economic Strategy - Fiscal policy is expected to be a core focus in the future, with increased emphasis on demand-side, particularly consumer-driven, adjustments[7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a period of preparation, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on accelerating economic growth to catch up with the US[7]