板块存在补涨机会：年初以来，券商指数下跌 4.7%，上证综指上涨 0.6%，沪深 300 上涨 0.2%，科创 50 上涨 12.0%，券商板块跑输主要指数，科创表现亮眼。 截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，板块 PB 估值为 1.4 倍，位于十年 36%分位数。春节后市 场活跃度提高，在成交额放大带动指数上攻的情况下（截至 3 月 7 日，年初至今 日均股基成交额约 15,189 亿元，24Q1 为 10,217 亿元），券商板块有望补涨。 ❑ 金融科技：寻找享受科技贝塔的高性价比标的 春节后，随着 DeepSeek 浪潮袭来，全球资金更加重视中国的 AI 技术革命带来的 投资机会，为金融科技股注入强劲吸引力。同时，市场资金有高切低需求，相比 于 A 股，港股、美股部分金融科技股科技属性更强、估值较低，具备性价比优 势，且外资更易触达，因此更容易受到增量资金或转换资金的青睐。从动态 PE 来看，部分金融科技标的涨幅过大且估值过高，而九方智投的估值相比同业尚处 于历史较低位置，也易享受到科技的贝塔，同时也建议关注涨幅较小且估值较低 的 A 股券商 IT 标的顶点软件。 ❑ 投资建议 投资要点 ❑ 证券板块： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report suggests that the negative factors have been fully priced in, and a turning point is approaching, with the fundamentals expected to exceed market expectations [1] - The company is recognized as one of the most comprehensive domestic cosmetics groups, with new products, brands, and channel expansions likely to drive revenue beyond expectations [1] - The adjustment in the "Da Bo" strategy and the increase in the proportion of non-box products are anticipated to improve net profit margins, leading to net profit exceeding expectations [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The market anticipates a decline in monthly sales data for the brand "Han Shu" on Douyin due to high base effects and the lack of new product launches [2] - However, the report argues that the decline in GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) is primarily due to a significant drop in the "Da Bo" proportion, which has decreased from approximately 40%-50% to 12% in recent months [2] - With the expected recovery in "Da Bo" rhythm and a lower base starting in Q2, monthly sales data for "Han Shu" is projected to turn positive [2] Product Development Capability - The market questions the company's ability to create high-priced single products, as previous successes were mainly in box sets [3] - The report asserts that the company has a deep understanding of the cosmetics market and has successfully launched single products, such as the "Newpage" cream, validating its capability to develop high-quality single products [3] E-commerce Operations - There are concerns regarding the company's operational capabilities on platforms like Tmall, given its previous success on Douyin [4] - The report highlights the management's strong learning ability and adaptability, noting improvements in Tmall operations and growing sales on other platforms like Pinduoduo and JD [4] Growth Drivers - The report identifies several growth drivers, including the performance of new products, the sales of major single products, and the expansion into new channels [5] - The expected sales growth from new products and brands is anticipated to lead to revenue and performance exceeding expectations [5] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 67.8 billion, 82.8 billion, and 97.6 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 62%, 22%, and 18% respectively [13] - The net profit is expected to reach 8.1 billion, 10.1 billion, and 12.4 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 75%, 25%, and 23% respectively [13] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's long-term development, supported by its strong brand influence and operational capabilities across various channels [13]

债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 13 日 基于中国视角看美国"化债" ——债市专题研究 核心观点 当财政盈亏平衡问题成为推进减税政策的潜在阻碍，美国版"化债"或渐行渐近。增 收节支，双管齐下推进去杠杆过程中，经济预期或将生变，小幅衰退或成为潜在路径。 映射至金融市场，美股或面临多重压力，美债利率下行空间有望打开。 ❑ 我国宏观部门杠杆率变化历程回顾 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 ❑ 以中鉴外，美国版"化债"将如何演绎？ 横向对比来看，中美两国各部门杠杆率水平存在显著差别，我国非金融企业及居 民部门杠杆率水平较高，中央及地方政府杠杆率相对较低。美国则恰恰相反，政 府部门成为加杠杆主力。 美国需要"化债"吗？当财政盈亏平衡问题成为推进减税政策的潜在阻碍，如何 增收节支成为摆在特朗普政府面前的现实问题。特朗普政府之所以需要推进美国 版"化债"，出发点或在于其推动将 2017 年 TCJA 法案永久化的核心政策主张。 如何"化债"？增收节支，双管齐下推进去杠杆。收入端，特朗普政府以缩小贸 易逆差为理由，提出对等关税概念，对欧洲、加拿大、墨西哥等多个国家或地区 挥舞关税大棒，同时 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 纺织制造 华利集团(300979) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 12 日 新厂投产助力新客放量，盈利能力逐步释放 ——华利集团点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布 2024 年业绩快报及分红预案： 2024 年实现营业收入 240.06 亿元（同比+19.35%），归母净利润 38.41 亿元（同 比+20.01%），扣非后归母净利润 37.82 亿元（同比+18.87%）。 24Q4 单季度实现营业收入 64.95 亿元（同比+11.9%），归母净利润 9.97 亿元（同 比+9.2%），扣非后归母净利润 9.79 亿元（同比+5.3%）。 2024 年公司运动鞋销量 2.23 亿双（同比+17.53%），单 Q4 销量约 0.60 亿双（同 比+10.5%），Q4 由于基数上升，较前三季度有所降速，全年增长符合预期。 根据测算，2024 年人民币 ASP 约 107 元/双（同比+2%左右），单 Q4 人民币 ASP 约 108 元/双（同比+1%左右），全年各季度 ASP 均较稳定。 2024 年净利率 16.0%（同比+0.1pp），单 Q4 净利率 15.4%（同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 32.98 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, also up 12% year-on-year. In Q4 alone, the revenue was 8.71 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.80 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 46% [1][3] - The company is a leader in the domestic coal-to-olefins industry, with significant cost advantages. The production capacity from the Inner Mongolia project is expected to enhance earnings elasticity [3][5] - The company anticipates net profits of 11.40 billion yuan, 13.25 billion yuan, and 15.44 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 79.81%, 16.27%, and 16.53% [3][5] Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.98 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected revenue of 50.05 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 51.75% [4][6] - The gross margin for the year was 33.1%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [5][6] - The company’s polyethylene and polypropylene revenues were 8.05 billion yuan and 7.80 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +36% and +53% [5][6] Production Capacity and Future Growth - The Inner Mongolia project, with a capacity of 2.6 million tons per year, is set to begin production in November 2024, making it the largest coal-to-olefins project globally. Once fully operational, the company's total olefins capacity will reach 5.2 million tons per year [5][6] - The company is also planning a coal-to-olefins project in Xinjiang, which could add approximately 3.9 million tons of capacity, contributing significantly to future earnings growth [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report reviews the reform process of Japan's highway industry, highlighting the privatization reform initiated in 2005, which separated ownership and operational rights, and the significant debt burden inherited by the administrative body [5][24] - It discusses the flexible toll setting introduced post-privatization, including the implementation of discount systems and the extension of toll collection periods to manage debt [5][57] - The financial health of Japanese highway companies is characterized by stable revenues but low profit margins, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of less than 1% in revenue from 2006 to 2023 [5][72] - The report suggests that China's highway sector can learn from Japan's experiences, particularly in extending toll collection periods and enhancing revenue from service areas [6][82] Summary by Sections 1. Review of Japan's Highway Reform Process - The privatization reform in 2005 led to the establishment of six highway companies responsible for construction and management, while a separate body managed the debt [24] - The debt inherited was approximately 37 trillion yen, with a current balance of about 25 trillion yen as of the end of 2023 [5][57] 2. Comparison of Japanese Highway Companies' Operations - The report notes that Japan's highway companies manage 94% of the national highway network, with stable traffic volumes and toll revenues [5][65] - The revenue from tolls constitutes about 90% of total income, while service area operations contribute significantly to profits [5][76] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the scarcity of high-growth industries in a complex macroeconomic environment, emphasizing the value of high-dividend assets in the highway sector [7] - It recommends specific high-dividend stocks such as Anhui Expressway H, Ninghu Expressway H, and China Merchants Highway, particularly in light of potential regulatory changes extending toll collection periods [7][86]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 13 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 03 月 13 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商房地产 杨凡/吴贵伦】房地产 季度行业策略报告：估值筑底凸显配置价值——20250312 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商交运免税 李丹/李逸】铁路公路 行业深度：日本高速公路改革如何借鉴？——20250312 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 市场总览 1、大势 3 月 12 日上证指数下跌 0.23%，沪深 300 下跌 0.36%，科创 50 下跌 0.73%，中证 1000 上涨 0.23%，创 业板指下跌 0.58%，恒生指数下跌 0.76%。 2、行业 3 月 12 日表现最好的行业分别是传媒（+1.91%)、通信（+1.01%)、计算机（+0.8%)、建筑装饰 （+0.68%)、环保（+0.54%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-1.01%)、煤炭（-0.8%)、食品饮料（- ...

证券研究报告 ——2025年3月12日 行业评级：看好 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 沈家悦 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 shenjiayue@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 日度金属价格变化 | | 最新金属价格 | | | 日度涨跌幅 | | | 今年至今涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | 5 | 0 | . | 00% | - 0 | 20% . | | 氢氧化锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | 0 | 0 | . | 00% | 0 . | 39% | | 铜 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | 9 | 1 | . | 36% | 6 . | 84% | | 黄金 | 元/克 | 679 . | 6 | 0 | . | 58% | 9 . | 97% | | 电解镍 | 万元/吨 | 13 . | 3 | 0 | . | 00% | 5 . | 74% | | 铝 | 万元/吨 | 2 . | 1 | 1 | . ...

锡：关注缅甸复产反转机会 ——锡行业2025Q1前瞻 行业评级：看好 2025年3月12日 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 沈家悦 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 shenjiayue@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230524080011 01 缅甸停产复盘：强预期与弱现实的冲突 证券研究报告 缅甸佤邦停矿时间节点：23年8月停矿至今未复产 根据国际锡协，根据2023年4月15日佤邦中央经济委员会发布的通知《佤经字2023—06号》和5月20日出台的《关于执行"暂停 一切矿产资源开采"的通知》，佤邦在2023年8月1日后矿山将停止一切勘探、开采、加工等作业。该项措施已落地，目前无相关 复工通知。我们认为，目前距离缅甸停矿时间已超一年，随着各项政策逐步落地，缅甸禁矿的时间点已渐近。 佤邦复产最新消息：已公布办理采矿证流程，今年大概率复产 根据SMM，佤邦工业矿产管理局发布的《办理开采、选厂、探矿许可证的流程》中明确了办理相关许可证的程序，缅甸复产已进 入正轨。因此我们认为，2025年缅甸复产是大概率事件。若一季度、二季度宣布复产，则年内会有来自缅甸的增量供给。 停产后锡价复 ...

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