资金流动只造成短期扰动，看好节前机会 ——主动量化周报 证券研究报告 | 金融工程点评 金融工程点评 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 05 日 核心观点 春节前 V 型走势确定性进一步提高，接下来一周是重要的建仓期。此前下跌受汇率、 政策预期等多维度影响，总结来说为预期层面下修调整带来资金流出，且下跌过程中 出现一定放量。因此，我们判断市场底部出现的时间会有所提前，未来一周或是最佳 建仓期。 ❑ 如何看待春节前 A 股投资机会？ 市场有望提前见底，未来一周或是最佳建仓期。近一周市场调整的主要催化剂包 括：1）美元大幅走强，人民币汇率承压，或使得外资趋于流出；2）市场担忧部 分微盘股的退市风险，风险偏好整体回落；3）中央经济工作会议落地后，短期 缺乏重要会议催化，政策预期有所下修。总结来看，即为预期层面的下修调整带 来资金流出。从结构上看，沪深 300、中证 2000 分别下跌 5.2%、9.7%，以中证 2000 为代表的小盘股延续了 2024 年 12 月 13 日以来的调整态势，走势显著偏 弱。此外，此前调整过程中，中证 2000 指数整体缩量，而 1 月 2 日-3 日却出现 小幅放量。前期报告《2 ...

核心观点 本周市场普跌。展望后市，由于本周主要宽基指数下行速度较快，导致市场技术形态 受到一定程度损伤，预计短期内仍有震荡整理的需求，指数大概率通过"反弹/反抽-回 踩确认"的方式进行整理。考虑到这种整理结构需要一定"时间"来完成，加之北证 50、国证 2000 等小盘指数仍在整理结构中，我们预计农历春节之前市场大概率会维持 上述震荡整理格局，春节前后有望出现中线底部结构。配置方面，建议投资人"保持 克制，继续守时待机"。这里的"克制"包括两方面：一方面是保持冷静，切勿在当前 位置盲目杀跌。目前上证指数最低至 3205 点，距离下方突破缺口（3087-3152）仅一 步之遥，在该位置杀跌毫无必要。另一方面是保持耐心，选择合适的抄底时机。由于 当前主要宽基指数技术形态都受到不同程度损伤，且以北证 50 和国证 2000 为代表的 小盘股指数仍在调整，建议投资者冷静待机，待权重指数、成长指数同步调整到位、 形成中线底部结构之后再行增配。 ❑ 本周（2024-12-30 至 2025-01-03）行情概况 （1）主要指数：本周市场普跌，成长指数跌幅更大。（2）板块观察：一级行业全 数下跌，红利风格相对扛跌。（3）市 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 茅台 24 年圆满收官，金股推荐古井贡酒 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 1 月第 1 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：本周酒企密集发布中期分红、茅台 24 年顺利完成 15%增长目 标，提振市场信心。我们认为食饮板块短期重点关注春节和年货节表现 （24Q4、25Q1 增速）、酒企潜在分红提升预期、微信小店送礼概念等，25 年春节或迎来验证期；中长期看，白酒重视具备较强品牌势能、库存更早出 清、增速目标合理的龙头标的，大众品关注高景气和餐饮修复两条主线。 白酒板块：当前重点推荐+1 月金股为古井贡酒。政策催化下或迎白酒结构 牛市，推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低基数修复"两条主线： ①势能延续的确定性：高端酒推荐五粮液/贵州茅台，次高端及区域酒推荐 古井贡酒/山西汾酒/迎驾贡酒/今世缘；②低基数修复的弹性：高端酒推荐泸 州老窖，次高端及区域酒推荐老白干酒/水井坊。 大众品板块：我们针对 2025 年大众品板块的投资主线，主要总结为两点， 即景气度主线和修复主线：1）重视当下行业景气度持续或 2025 年景气度有 望上行的子板块，重视收入向上或业绩驱动带来的投资机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, highlighting potential recovery in profitability and demand growth [11][92]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a dual focus on "growing offshore wind demand and industry chain profitability recovery" as key investment themes [11][92]. - It suggests that supply-side reforms and technological advancements are expected to drive a rebound in the photovoltaic sector, with significant growth anticipated in emerging markets [11][45]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The report notes that the profitability of the industry chain has been under pressure, but an acceleration in installations is expected to lead to performance recovery [7][94]. - The photovoltaic index showed a significant rebound in Q4 2024, driven by supply-side reforms, with the excess return of the photovoltaic equipment index reaching 22.8% from September to December [23][42]. Supply Chain Insights - The report highlights that the current cost of photovoltaic components is approximately 0.692 CNY/W, with inventory levels in the polysilicon and battery segments being relatively high, indicating a potential for price stabilization [51][49]. - It also points out that the glass and EVA film prices are on a downward trend due to oversupply, while the profitability of leading companies in these segments remains strong [74][78]. Market Trends - Global photovoltaic installations are projected to grow steadily, with expected additions of 544 GW in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 22% [27][45]. - The report identifies Asia, Africa, and Latin America as key growth markets for photovoltaic installations, with significant increases anticipated in these regions [45][47]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the tightening of trade policies in the U.S. and India, which may impact the competitiveness of Chinese photovoltaic products in these markets [32][47]. - It notes that domestic policies in China are increasingly supportive of offshore wind development, with several provinces launching significant projects [97][99]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong alpha characteristics and global capabilities in the photovoltaic sector, such as Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar [11][12]. - For the wind power sector, it suggests monitoring companies involved in offshore wind and those benefiting from structural supply-demand tightness [11][92].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (Maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of "strategic thinking" in analyzing banks, moving beyond traditional fundamental indicators to consider opportunity costs and relative performance [1][20] - The DDM (Dividend Discount Model) is highlighted as a suitable valuation method for bank stocks, focusing on both the numerator (fundamental performance) and denominator (required return and dividend ratio) [21][60] - The report identifies that the current bank stock performance is driven by a "denominator-driven" market, with falling risk-free rates and improved risk preferences contributing to the positive outlook for bank stocks in 2025 [10][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Strategic Thinking in Banking - Traditional views focus on fundamental indicators like revenue growth, profit growth, and non-performing loan ratios, while strategic thinking incorporates opportunity costs and relative performance [1][33] - The report discusses the importance of both absolute and relative returns in bank stock performance, linking them to economic variables and the bank's business model stability [40][41] Section 2: DDM Model Insights - The DDM model is presented as a key framework for evaluating bank stocks, with emphasis on understanding the drivers of both the numerator and denominator [21][60] - The numerator is influenced by fundamental performance, while the denominator is affected by risk-free rates, risk evaluation, and risk preferences [51][60] Section 3: Current Market Dynamics - The report notes that the bank stock market has been characterized by a "denominator-driven" environment, with significant contributions from declining risk-free rates and improved risk preferences [10][19] - It highlights that the performance of bank stocks is expected to continue positively into 2025, driven by low valuations and high dividends, particularly for mid-sized banks [10][19] Section 4: Misconceptions in Bank Stock Investment - The report addresses common misconceptions, such as the belief that poor economic conditions will always lead to falling bank stocks, emphasizing that market perceptions and risk evaluations play a crucial role [1][10] - It also discusses the importance of long-term performance over short-term gains, suggesting that stability and resilience are key factors in bank stock valuation [1][10]

Group 1: Energy and Manufacturing Insights - The average daily power generation from coal-fired power plants decreased by 3.4% month-on-month and 10.6% year-on-year during the period from December 12 to December 20, 2024[2] - The average daily coal consumption for power generation increased to 582 million tons, a 9.4% increase from December 15, 2024[20] - The manufacturing PMI for December was recorded at 52.1%, indicating a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still reflecting strong production intentions[19] Group 2: Economic Activity and Consumer Behavior - The service sector's business activity index rose to 52.0%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since April 2024[24] - The total number of vehicles scrapped and replaced reached nearly 2.7 million, with over 3.1 million vehicle replacements and over 33.3 million consumers purchasing related home appliances[4] - The construction industry business activity index increased to 53.2%, a rise of 3.5 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion[7] Group 3: Price Trends and Profitability - The raw material purchase price index fell to 48.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, indicating a downward trend in procurement prices[48] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises decreased by 7.3% year-on-year in November, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability amid high costs and insufficient demand[23] - The producer price index for December was recorded at 46.7%, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prices[48] Group 4: Policy and Market Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a slightly loose tone, with limited likelihood of contractionary policies being introduced in the near term[8] - The overall demand in December remained in the expansion zone, supported by consumer demand and policy measures[21] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus measures are expected to create a favorable financial environment for high-quality economic development[18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][28] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the tin price experienced a strong start in early 2024 due to lower-than-expected exports from Indonesia and ongoing production halts in Myanmar, but it is expected to decline later in the year due to supply increases from overseas mines and concerns about Myanmar's potential resumption of production [4][18] - The supply situation in Indonesia and Myanmar is critical, with Indonesia's exports from January to October 2024 at 35,000 tons, down 36% year-on-year, and Myanmar's imports into China at 72,000 tons, down 51% year-on-year [8][12] - The report quantifies supply fluctuations, estimating a reduction of 75,000 tons from Myanmar and 19,000 tons from Indonesia, with expectations for partial recovery in 2025 [12][18] - Demand for tin, particularly from soldering materials, has been lower than expected, impacting overall consumption and price dynamics [14][18] Summary by Sections Tin Price Summary and Outlook - The tin price in 2024 is expected to show a pattern of initial strength followed by weakness, influenced by supply and demand dynamics [4][18] Supply and Demand Tracking - The report tracks supply from Indonesia and Myanmar, highlighting the significant impact of Myanmar's production status on tin prices [5][12] 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that if Myanmar resumes production, there may be short-term pressure on tin prices, with overall demand expected to remain stable [18] Demand as a Key Factor - The report emphasizes that demand will be a crucial factor for tin prices in 2024, with high supply and low demand expected to suppress price movements [14][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on its strong market position and growth potential [67][64] Core Views - The company is transitioning from being a leading domestic air separation equipment manufacturer to a comprehensive industrial gas supplier, leveraging its strong market position and technological advantages [95][96] - The industrial gas industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, outsourcing trends, and increasing demand from new sectors such as semiconductors and new energy [54][6] - The company's gas business is expected to grow significantly, driven by macroeconomic recovery, market share expansion, and new product categories [54][116] Business Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 13.3 billion yuan, a 4% year-on-year increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 billion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year increase [3] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 22.9%, with a net margin of 9.6% [28][29] - The company's new contract value for air separation and petrochemical equipment in 2023 was 6.57 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [31][32] Market Space and Growth Drivers - The global industrial gas market was valued at 10.238 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 7.2% from 2017 to 2022, and is expected to reach 13.299 trillion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% from 2022 to 2026 [6][9] - The domestic industrial gas market was valued at 1.964 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 10.4% from 2017 to 2022, and is expected to grow to 2.842 trillion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 9.68% from 2022 to 2026 [12] - The company's industrial gas business accounted for 62% of total revenue in 2023, with manufacturing contributing 35% [32][44] Industry Trends - The outsourcing trend in the industrial gas sector is accelerating, with the outsourcing market share in China expected to increase from 58.4% in 2021 to 65.7% by 2026 [39][40] - The company is expanding its presence in the electronic specialty gas and new energy gas sectors, with significant investments in related projects [116][118] Competitive Landscape - The global industrial gas market is highly concentrated, with the top four companies (CR4) accounting for 54% of the market in 2021, down from 71% in 2011 [9][11] - In the domestic market, the top six companies (CR6) account for 72% of the market, with the company holding a 6.3% market share [12][14] - The company is the leading domestic player in large-scale air separation equipment, with a market share of 43.2% in 2022 [100][121] Overseas Expansion - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 840 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 6.3% of total revenue [134][136] - The company has secured significant overseas contracts, including a 64,000 Nm³/h air separation unit for a major steel plant in India [126][138] Technological Advancements - The company has developed advanced air separation equipment with a maximum capacity of 120,000 Nm³/h, and its total oxygen production capacity exceeds 3.3 million Nm³/h [133] - The company has made breakthroughs in specialty gases, achieving integrated production, storage, and application of gases such as neon, helium, krypton, and xenon, providing solutions for critical industries like semiconductors, nuclear power, and aerospace [131] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 980 million yuan, 1.311 billion yuan, and 1.593 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 17, and 14 times [64][67]

Industry Overview - Indonesia is the world's largest nickel reserve holder, with proven reserves of 55 million metal tons in 2023, accounting for 42% of global reserves, and production of 1.8 million metal tons, representing 50% of global output [21] - Nickel laterite ore has replaced sulfide ore as the mainstream due to the depletion of sulfide resources and advancements in laterite ore smelting technology since 2009 [21] - Indonesia's nickel export restrictions have driven the agglomeration of intermediate product industries, with the country becoming the largest incremental supplier of nickel intermediates globally due to rapid production growth and cost advantages [22] Key Projects and Capacities - The Qingmeibang Nickel Resource Project has a total planned capacity of 150,000 tons of nickel per year, with phases I and II already operational [70] - The IMIP Industrial Park has a nickel capacity of 590,000 metal tons per year, while the IWIP Industrial Park has a capacity of 720,000 metal tons per year [31] - Chinese companies' planned nickel intermediate product capacity in Indonesia is about 1.7 times the existing capacity, with significant room for release but slowing investment pace [32] Market Trends and Prices - Nickel product prices have fallen to early 2020 lows, with the bottom potentially established due to supply constraints from global project reductions and shutdowns [54] - Nickel inventories remain high, with prices in a low volatility range since Q3 2024 as supply eased and prices returned to rational levels [54] - The global nickel supply increment will continue to concentrate in Indonesia due to its low-cost advantage, contributing to the ongoing downward trend in nickel prices [22] Company Highlights - Qingmei Holdings is the backbone of Chinese enterprises investing in Indonesia, with its IMIP and IWIP industrial parks accounting for about 75% of nickel intermediate product capacity in the two parks [84] - Weiming Environmental Protection's first 40,000-ton production line is undergoing system debugging, with full operation planned for the first half of 2025 [5] - Huayou Cobalt has formed a layout of 130,000 tons of high-ice nickel and 200,000 tons of high-nickel ternary cathode materials, leveraging resource advantages from cooperation with Qingmei Holdings [55] Industrial Parks and Production - The IMIP Industrial Park, completed in 2015, has become the world's longest and most complete stainless steel production base, with an annual capacity of 2.5 million tons of nickel iron and 3 million tons of stainless steel [31] - The IWIP Industrial Park, completed in 2020, has about 9.3 million tons of nickel resources and is the first comprehensive nickel resource utilization industrial park [31] - Nickel intermediate production in Qingmei's two industrial parks is mainly MHP, accounting for over 60% of production [84]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The core logic of the defense and military industry is summarized in 12 words: endogenous + external, domestic demand + foreign trade, military products + civilian products [1] - The growth trend of the defense and military industry is strong, driven by factors such as scale effects, equity incentives, and large orders with significant prepayments [1] - The direction of external growth is clear, with ongoing deepening of state-owned enterprise reforms and potential for military asset securitization and core military product restructuring [1] - The demand for military exports is robust, with Chinese tanks, drones, trainer aircraft, and fighter jets showing global competitiveness [1] Recent Market Performance - The defense index rose by 0.3% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.0% [8][20] - Year-to-date, the defense index has increased by 10.2%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.1 percentage points [8][20] - The top five performing military stocks this week include: Hangfa Technology (+17%), Jinxin Nuo (+14%), Guangqi Technology (+9%), Xinzhi Group (+9%), and China Ship Technology (+9%) [9][20] Key Companies and Investment Suggestions - Recommended core companies include: AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Hongdu Aviation, Aero Engine Corporation of China, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, China Shipbuilding Defense, China Power, AVIC Helicopter, North Navigation, and others [1] - Investment suggestions for aircraft include: Hongdu Aviation, AVIC Xi'an, AVIC Shenyang, Aero Engine Corporation, and others [1] - For shipbuilding, recommended companies are: China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, China Power, and others [1] - In the low-altitude economy sector, suggested companies include: AVIC Helicopter, Weihai Guangtai, and others [1]