Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the liquor sector, particularly highlighting a potential structural bull market for liquor under policy catalysts, while recommending a balanced approach with two main investment lines [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on supply-demand alignment and the impact of the Spring Festival on sales data, particularly for Moutai [1]. - It notes that major liquor companies are actively managing production speed to address supply-demand imbalances and inventory pressures, with Moutai and other leading brands meeting revenue and profit expectations [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival in 2025 may serve as a validation period for brands with strong market positioning and reasonable growth targets [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.18% this week, with significant drops in companies like Jiuye and Jinzhongzi [2]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Moutai, Gujinggongjiu, and others showing expected revenue and profit results [4]. Moutai's Strategic Plans - Moutai plans to slightly increase its domestic market supply in 2025 compared to 2024, with adjustments in product offerings to enhance consumer reach [5]. - The company aims to maintain stable pricing for its flagship products while adjusting distribution policies for various product lines [5][6]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the importance of focusing on high-potential segments within the industry, particularly those expected to see upward trends in revenue and performance [7]. - Recommended stocks include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili, among others, which are positioned to benefit from consumer recovery and policy-driven demand [7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the beer sector has seen a valuation increase, with Qingdao Beer being a core recommendation due to expected revenue growth driven by consumption recovery and inventory reduction [20][21]. - The overall valuation for the food and beverage industry is reported at 21.09 times, with specific segments like beer and liquor showing varied valuation metrics [65].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [5] Core Views - The new generation Glo Hilo product shows significant improvements in performance and user experience compared to both the market-leading IQOS iluma i and its previous generation, with expectations of market expansion and volume growth by 2025-2026 [3] - The company has actively responded to regulatory changes in the European market by launching compliant solutions such as TANKER and QUAD SHOT Pro, which are expected to capture elastic demand post-regulatory tightening [7] - The report forecasts revenue growth of 8%, 11%, and 21% for 2024-2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to grow by 36% in both 2025 and 2026 [24] Product Comparison - Glo Hilo Plus is more compact and lightweight (92g) compared to IQOS iluma i (146g), offering better portability and grip [17] - Glo Hilo charges faster, reaching 80% in 40 minutes, while IQOS iluma takes 90-135 minutes for a full charge [17] - The new Glo Hilo features improved heating technology, shorter preheating time, and extended session duration, supporting 5 minutes 10 seconds in standard mode and 3 minutes 40 seconds in boost mode [21] Market and Regulatory Trends - The HNB market is growing steadily, with IQOS maintaining a 71% market share in 2023, while Glo holds 15.6%, indicating significant room for growth [36] - Regulatory changes in Europe and Australia are tightening restrictions on disposable e-cigarettes, while the FDA in the US is increasing enforcement against illegal e-cigarette products [19] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 120.67 billion, RMB 134.46 billion, and RMB 162.63 billion in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of 8%, 11%, and 21% respectively [24] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 13.28 billion, RMB 18.13 billion, and RMB 24.62 billion in 2024-2026, with growth rates of -19%, 36%, and 36% respectively [24] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 47.88X, 35.08X, and 25.83X [24] Product Innovation - The company has introduced new solutions like FEELM PRO, which uses ultra-thin high-performance technology for better vaporization performance [22] - Glo Hilo's new heating technology enhances flavor intensity and consistency, addressing consumer preferences [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its leading position in the autoimmune and oncology sectors, particularly with its core product CM310, which is the first domestically approved IL-4Rα antibody drug [31]. Core Insights - The company is focused on innovative drug development in the fields of autoimmune diseases and oncology, with a robust pipeline that includes high-potential candidates such as CM310 and CMG901. The report emphasizes the commercial potential of these products and the company's strategic partnerships [31][30]. - CM310 has been approved for multiple indications, including moderate to severe atopic dermatitis and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, positioning it as a market leader in these therapeutic areas [20][31]. - The company has established a strong commercialization team and production capacity, with over 1,200 employees and a significant increase in the commercialization team size [6][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Pipeline Overview - The company has a diverse pipeline with 12 key candidates at various stages of development, focusing on IL-4Rα, TSLP, and CD38 targets, which are leading in the domestic market [31]. - CM310 is the first domestically approved IL-4Rα antibody, with significant clinical data supporting its efficacy and safety across multiple indications [20][31]. 2. Product CM310 - CM310 is positioned as a leading product with a large market potential, having received approval for atopic dermatitis and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, with additional indications in the pipeline [20][31]. - The report notes that CM310's clinical data shows superior efficacy compared to competitors, establishing a strong competitive advantage [31][49]. 3. Product CMG901 - CMG901 is highlighted as a globally leading CLDN18.2 ADC with promising clinical data and a strong competitive position in the market [31]. - The product has received breakthrough designations and is advancing through clinical trials, with a focus on gastric cancer [31]. 4. Dual-Antibody Platform - The company has developed a proprietary dual-specific antibody platform, with several candidates entering clinical trials, demonstrating the platform's value and potential for future collaborations [31][30]. 5. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report provides a valuation range for the company, estimating a reasonable present value between 15.1 billion to 17.2 billion RMB, reflecting the anticipated growth from its product pipeline [31].

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new phase of accelerated growth in innovation and internationalization starting from 2025, driven by the commercialization of key products such as CDK4/6, PD-L1, and JAK inhibitors [21][35] - The company's strong clinical execution and pipeline development capabilities are expected to drive rapid commercialization of multiple innovative drugs, including ADC and bispecific antibody platforms [3][35] - The company's internationalization efforts are accelerating, with multiple products in late-stage clinical trials overseas and significant licensing deals contributing to revenue growth [3][16] Pipeline and Commercialization - The company has a robust pipeline with multiple potential first-in-class (FIC) and best-in-class (BIC) products, including JAK inhibitors, IL-17, IL-4R, and GLP-1/GIP dual-target drugs [3][35] - Key products such as HER2 ADC, CLDN18.2 ADC, and PD-L1/TGF-βRII bispecific antibodies are in late-stage clinical trials and are expected to drive future growth [3][35] - The company has 8 innovative drugs and over 20 new indications in the NDA stage as of October 21, 2024, with products like CDK4/6 and PD-L1 expected to see rapid market penetration [3] Financial Performance and Outlook - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a clear recovery trend since Q1 2023, driven by the commercialization of innovative drugs and the easing impact of centralized procurement [6][27] - Revenue is expected to reach 26.816 billion, 29.286 billion, and 34.723 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit expected to grow significantly [35] - The company's ROE has historically remained stable at around 20%, and a return to this level is anticipated as the impact of centralized procurement diminishes [21] International Expansion - The company's first innovative drug, camrelizumab, has been submitted for BLA in the US, with a target review date of March 23, 2025 [3] - Three ADC products have received Fast Track designation from the FDA, and the company has secured significant licensing deals, including a 1.6 billion euro upfront payment from Merck Healthcare in H1 2024 [3][16] R&D and Innovation - The company has a strong R&D team with over 5,000 employees and has consistently invested heavily in R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 6.204 billion yuan in 2023 [13][56] - The company has a diversified pipeline across multiple therapeutic areas, including oncology, autoimmune diseases, and metabolic disorders, with a focus on cutting-edge technologies like ADC and bispecific antibodies [3][35] Sales and Marketing - The company's sales efficiency has improved significantly, with sales per employee increasing from 1.43 million yuan in 2018 to 2.5 million yuan in 2023 [21][67] - The sales team has been optimized, and the company is well-positioned to support the commercialization of new innovative drugs [21]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is transforming into a diversified mining group, driven by a dual strategy of "mining services + resources" [3]. - The mining services segment is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures by Chinese mining companies going overseas, creating a cluster effect in the industry [25]. Summary by Sections Resource Holdings - As of September 30, 2024, the company holds mineral resources including 249,000 tons of copper, 179 tons of silver, and 19 tons of gold, along with 21.4 million tons of phosphate rock (31% grade) [1]. - The Lonshi copper mine's eastern district has reported an additional resource of 26.048 million tons of ore, containing 104,000 tons of copper at an average grade of 3.99% [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 9.6 billion, 11.8 billion, and 13.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 29%, 23%, and 15% respectively [5][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.55 billion, 2.24 billion, and 2.58 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 50%, 45%, and 15% respectively [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.48, 3.59, and 4.14 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.67, 10.83, and 9.39 [5][7]. Mining Services Business - The company is a leading player in the domestic mining services industry, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% in gross profit from 2018 to 2023, and a gross margin maintained between 26% and 29% [4]. - The mining services segment accounted for approximately 71% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, with a gross profit of 1.4 billion yuan [19]. - The company has secured contracts totaling approximately 16.3 billion yuan, which is expected to support stable growth in the mining services business [25]. Market Outlook - The underground mining services market is expected to continue growing, with high-end service companies likely to increase their market share [26]. - The report highlights that the global copper supply is projected to remain tight, which may elevate copper prices in the medium to long term [58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [13]. Core Views - The company plans to establish Hangcha American Intelligent Logistics Co., Ltd. in the United States to accelerate its expansion in the North American smart warehousing business [14]. - The company reported a revenue of 12.733 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.55%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.573 billion yuan, up 21.20% year-on-year [15]. - The internationalization of the forklift industry is accelerating, with the company achieving a 30% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 40% of total revenue [15]. - The electric forklift market is growing, with electric forklifts accounting for 70.77% of total sales, and the company is strategically investing in lithium batteries and key components [15]. Financial Summary - Revenue forecast for 2024 is 16.444 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 2.065 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [7][15]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 1.58 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.57 [10][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.56% for 2024, showing a slight decline from 21.42% in 2023 [10][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [16] Core Viewpoints - The Iceberg Activity Index for the 50 key cities is at 16.9, showing a slight increase of 0.2 points week-on-week, indicating a recovery trend in the market [2][13] - The housing price index for the 50 key cities decreased by 0.13% week-on-week and 0.57% month-on-month, with a notable slowdown in the rate of decline [2][11] - New and second-hand housing transaction volumes have both decreased, with new housing transaction area down by 4.3% week-on-week [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Activity - The Iceberg Activity Index for first-tier cities averages 30.5, while new first-tier cities are at 19.4, and second-tier cities at 14.1, indicating varying levels of market activity [2][23] - The market has shown signs of stabilization after the new policy in September 2023, with a continuous high activity level over the past three months [2][5] Housing Prices - The month-on-month rolling decline in housing prices has stabilized, with the decline rate slowing down significantly [2][5] - Cities like Shenzhen and Chengdu have shown resilience, with Chengdu experiencing a slight decrease of 0.03% after seven weeks of price increases [2][5] Policy Developments - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on demand release, supply improvement, and market transformation [4][5] - New housing purchase subsidies have been introduced in Hainan, marking a significant policy shift since 2018 [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for real estate stocks, particularly in 2024 and 2025, with a focus on companies like Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments [6][18] - Analysts recommend increasing risk appetite and considering investments in consumer and real estate sectors [6][18]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the computer sector is **Positive** (Maintained) [18] Core Views - The formation of an ecosystem requires support from both users and software developers, with strong network effects leading to a winner-takes-all scenario [2] - The global mobile operating system market is highly concentrated, with Android, iOS, and HarmonyOS holding 80%, 16%, and 4% market share respectively in Q3 2024 [2] - HarmonyOS faces a critical window in 2025, with user adoption and application ecosystem development being key factors for its success [13] - The US-China tech rivalry is intensifying, making self-reliance in foundational software and hardware, including operating systems, increasingly urgent [8] - HarmonyOS is expected to play a pivotal role in achieving domestic substitution in the operating system market [8] Ecosystem Development - OpenHarmony 5.0 has been released, with Harmony NEXT sharing the ecosystem with OpenHarmony [3][23] - HarmonyOS NEXT has already adapted 15,000 high-impact native applications and meta-services, but many long-tail applications remain unsupported [13] - Huawei aims to have 100,000 native applications as a benchmark for consumer maturity, with the next 6-12 months being a critical period for application adaptation [13] - The prosperity of the OpenHarmony ecosystem is expected to further enhance the HarmonyOS ecosystem, promoting its widespread adoption and application richness [23] B2B and G2B Applications - B2B and G2B applications are lagging in adaptation due to budget constraints, user scale, and economic considerations [4] - Under the backdrop of US-China tech competition and policy-driven self-reliance, HarmonyOS is expected to receive strong support, with B2B and G2B applications gradually adapting to the system [4] - Huawei's Xu Zhijun has called for government agencies and enterprises to develop native HarmonyOS versions of their internal applications to meet the needs of professionals [4] - HarmonyOS ecosystem partners are expected to benefit from assisting in the development of these applications, as there is currently a shortage of developers with HarmonyOS expertise in enterprise IT departments [4] PC Market Expansion - Huawei's upcoming PCs may be the last to feature Windows, with future models expected to run HarmonyOS [17] - The Huawei MatePad Pro 13.2-inch, which can be paired with a keyboard for PC-level productivity, and the availability of development guidelines for keyboard and mouse interactions in the HarmonyOS developer community, suggest preparations for the arrival of HarmonyOS PCs [17] Key Players - Companies related to HarmonyOS include: Dongfang Zhongke, Chengmai Technology, Zhiwei Intelligence, SoftStone, Jingjia Micro, Wanxing Technology, AsiaInfo Security, Runhe Software, Changshan Beiming, Jiulian Technology, Topway Information, Faben Information, Xinhai Technology, and Beyondsoft [14]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Fund Position Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the allocation of active equity funds across various industries to identify underweight or overweight sectors, providing insights into potential investment opportunities[3][11]. - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses statistical methods to estimate the proportion of active equity funds allocated to different industries. For example, as of December 20, the allocation to the food and beverage industry was 5.1%, compared to 5.5% in the Wind All A Index, indicating an underweight position. Similarly, allocations to retail and textile industries were approximately neutral[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear view of fund allocation trends, helping to identify sectors with potential for increased institutional investment[11]. 2. Model Name: AI Price-Volume Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages daily price and volume data to extract trend, volatility, and price-volume characteristics of industry indices. It uses deep neural networks to predict the configuration value of industries[16][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The model standardizes industry index scores to a range of [-1,1]. For the current period, the top industries identified by the model include automobiles, machinery, transportation, media, and banking. The previous period's top industries were machinery, transportation, banking, automobiles, and non-bank finance[18]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies short-term industry opportunities, providing actionable insights for sector allocation[16][18]. 3. Model Name: GDPNOW Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts GDP growth rates using high-frequency macroeconomic data, offering real-time insights into economic trends[25]. - **Model Construction Process**: The model's latest prediction for Q4 2024 GDP growth is 4.6%, unchanged from the previous week. The model updates its forecasts based on new macroeconomic data, ensuring timely and accurate predictions[25][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides stable and reliable GDP growth forecasts, aiding in macroeconomic analysis and decision-making[25]. 4. Model Name: Informed Trader Activity Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This indicator measures the activity level of informed traders to gauge market sentiment and predict short-term market trends[27]. - **Model Construction Process**: The indicator showed a slight decline followed by a rebound during the week, suggesting that informed traders remain optimistic about the market's short-term outlook[27][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator offers valuable insights into market sentiment, complementing other timing strategies[27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Fund Position Monitoring Model - **Key Metrics**: - Food and Beverage Allocation: 5.1% (vs. 5.5% in Wind All A Index)[11] - Retail and Textile Allocation: Neutral[11] 2. AI Price-Volume Model - **Key Metrics**: - Current Top Industries: Automobiles (0.42), Machinery (0.40), Transportation (0.35), Media (0.32), Banking (0.25)[18][19] - Previous Top Industries: Machinery, Transportation, Banking, Automobiles, Non-Bank Finance[18] 3. GDPNOW Model - **Key Metrics**: - Q4 2024 GDP Growth Prediction: 4.6%[25][26] 4. Informed Trader Activity Indicator - **Key Metrics**: - Recent Activity Trend: Decline followed by rebound, indicating optimism[27][28] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: BARRA Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors measure various stock characteristics, such as value, growth, momentum, and volatility, to identify market preferences and trends[37]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The factors are calculated based on stock-level data. For example, this week's factor performance includes: - Momentum: 0.3% - Nonlinear Size: 0.3% - Size: 0.3% - Dividend Yield: 0.2% - Earnings Quality: 0.1%[37][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors provide a comprehensive view of market preferences, aiding in portfolio construction and risk management[37]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. BARRA Style Factors - **Key Metrics**: - Momentum: 0.3% - Nonlinear Size: 0.3% - Size: 0.3% - Dividend Yield: 0.2% - Earnings Quality: 0.1%[37][38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (Maintained) [7] Core Insights - The recent advancements in AI technology, particularly with OpenAI's release of the o3 reasoning model, have significantly improved capabilities in complex tasks such as mathematics and coding, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the AI sector [7] - The commercialization of AI applications is expected to accelerate, driven by new product releases from both domestic and international companies [7] - The daily usage of the Doubao large model has surged over 33 times since May, highlighting the increasing adoption of AI solutions in various sectors [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the rapid iteration and upgrades in AI models, with OpenAI launching several new features and models that enhance user productivity and application capabilities [7][17] - The AI sector is witnessing a significant increase in the daily token usage of large models, indicating a growing market demand [7] Key Developments - OpenAI's o3 model achieved an impressive score of 87.5% in high reasoning capability settings, showcasing its advanced problem-solving abilities [7][17] - The introduction of productivity tools like Canvas and Projects within ChatGPT aims to transform it from a simple AI chat tool into a comprehensive collaboration platform [7] Market Trends - Major players in the AI industry, including Google, Amazon, and ByteDance, are continuously releasing new versions of their models, enhancing their capabilities significantly [7] - The report anticipates that the commercialization process of AI applications will continue to accelerate, particularly as more companies launch AI-driven products [7]