Macroeconomic Overview - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average transaction volume of 1,142.1 billion CNY, down 192.6 billion CNY from the previous week[10] - December CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, matching expectations, while PPI decreased by 2.3%, also in line with forecasts[11] - Core CPI showed a slight upward trend for three consecutive months, indicating marginally positive signals despite ongoing food price pressures[12] Policy and Market Reactions - The central bank announced a pause in government bond purchases, leading to delayed expectations for monetary easing due to recent RMB depreciation[10] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December exceeded expectations, with an increase of 256,000 jobs, leading to a reduction in the anticipated timeline for Fed rate cuts[18] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted to after June 2025, with the total number of cuts for the year reduced to less than two[19] Investment and Economic Indicators - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes subsidies for digital products, with limits set on individual item prices and subsidy amounts, which did not exceed market expectations overall[10] - The bond market saw rising yields, particularly in the short end, influenced by regulatory concerns and the central bank's actions[10] - Key upcoming data to watch includes China's December financial data, trade figures, and Q4 GDP, which are critical for assessing economic recovery[21]

Group 1: Influenza Surveillance Data - The positive rate of influenza virus detection in southern provinces increased to 24.5%, while in northern provinces it reached 32.8%, resulting in a national average of 28.6%[9] - A total of 171 influenza-like illness (ILI) outbreaks were reported nationwide during the 52nd week of 2024[12] - The ILI percentage in southern provinces was reported at 5.7%, up from 4.7% the previous week, and higher than the 2021 level of 4.1%[7] - In northern provinces, the ILI percentage was 7.2%, an increase from 6.4% the previous week, and higher than the 2021-2023 levels[15] Group 2: Pathogen Monitoring - From April 1 to December 29, 2024, 1844 strains (97.0%) of A(H1N1)pdm09 were similar to A/Victoria/4897/2022, while 392 strains (56.0%) of A(H3N2) were similar to A/Thailand/8/2022[4] - Among 141 A(H1N1)pdm09 strains analyzed, 100% were found to be similar to A/Victoria/4897/2022[11] - Resistance monitoring indicated that 88 strains (95.7%) of A(H1N1)pdm09 were sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors, while 4 strains (4.3%) showed reduced sensitivity[31] Group 3: Outbreak Overview - Nationwide, 684 ILI outbreaks were reported from April 1 to December 29, 2024, with 520 attributed to A(H1N1)pdm09[34] - The southern provinces reported 388 outbreaks, significantly lower than the 2309 outbreaks reported in the same period of 2023[34] - The northern provinces reported 296 outbreaks, also lower than the 468 outbreaks reported in 2023[34] Group 4: Global Influenza Activity - In the northern hemisphere, influenza activity has increased in several regions, particularly with A(H1N1)pdm09 and B type viruses[44] - The World Organization for Animal Health reported 21 high-pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks globally during the week of December 22-28, 2024[40]

宏观 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 12 月非制造业 PMI 明显反弹 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（1 月第 1 周） [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，年底及跨年后货币适 度宽松仍未兑现，压制指数弹性；小盘股在退市新规避险、两 融杠杆余额见顶回落避险下继续调整。基本面方面，12 月 PMI 回落 0.2 个百分点，符合淡季特征，属于季节性 ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 1 月 6 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 执业证书号：S1030524060001 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 装备制造 [Table_Title] 轨交设备受益于国铁招标节奏加快 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（1 月第 1 周） [Table_S 市场行情回顾 ummary] ： 本周 4 个交易日机械设备、电力设备及汽车行业指数涨跌幅 分别为-8.18%、-6.64%及-7.45%，在 31 个申万一级行业中排 名分别为第 23、16、19 位；同期沪深 300 涨跌幅为-5.17%。 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Re ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：李时樟 执业证书：S1030522060001 电话：18065826333 邮箱：lisz@csco.com.cn 分析师：罗晴 执业证书：S1030524110001 电话：13603091122 邮箱：luoqing@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 TMT [Table_Title] 关注 CES 展会开幕对消费电子催化行情 TMT 行业周报（1 月第 1 周） [Table_S 行业ummary 观点：] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportType] [Table_BaseData] 1) 周度市场回顾。TMT 板块内一级行业周涨跌幅为：传媒（- 5.36%）、通信（-6.89%）、电子（-7.51%）、计算机（-7.92%）， 本周 TMT 整体跑输沪深 300。TMT 板块内跌幅相对靠后的三 级子行业分别为教育出版（-2.24%）、品牌消费电子（- 5.59%）、面板（-6.46%），跌幅前三的 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Views - The consumer sector experienced a decline in the first week of January 2025, with various sub-sectors such as home appliances, textiles, food and beverages, and retail showing significant drops [5]. - WeChat's new private domain incentive plan is expected to enhance merchant onboarding and improve operations, potentially benefiting the e-commerce and agency operation sectors [5]. - The increase in import tariffs on pet food is likely to benefit domestic brands by further capturing market share from foreign brands [5]. Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a decline, with the home appliance, textile, food and beverage, retail, beauty care, and social services indices dropping by 3.25%, 4.09%, 4.14%, 5.66%, 8.51%, and 8.60% respectively, while the CSI 300 index fell by 5.17% [5]. - Notable gainers included Jiao Da Ang Li (+46.37%) and Dongbai Group (+46.54%), while significant losers included Xibu Muye (-19.92%) and Youa Shares (-21.38%) [5]. - The WeChat small shop's private domain incentive plan aims to reduce technical service fees for qualifying merchants, potentially increasing merchant participation and enhancing brand presence on the platform [5]. - The pet food import tariff increase from 4% to 10% is expected to impact foreign brands negatively, allowing domestic brands to gain market share [5]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - In January, the production of major home appliances is projected to decline, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines seeing year-on-year decreases of 1.5%, 6.5%, and 8% respectively [16]. - The domestic travel market is showing growth, with a 7% increase in domestic flight bookings compared to the previous year [19]. - Alibaba announced the sale of its stake in Gaoxin Retail for approximately HKD 13.138 billion [19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Mijia Ice City, with a 21.4% increase in retail sales in the first nine months of 2024 [19]. - The report also notes that Guizhou Moutai expects to achieve a revenue of approximately CNY 173.8 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 15.44% [21].

Economic Overview - In November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached CNY 66,674.8 billion, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%[18] - The profit decline in November was -7.3%, improving from -10.0% in October[18] - The inventory growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 3.9% previously[18] Market Performance - The market experienced a contraction with an average weekly trading volume of CNY 13,791 billion, a decrease of CNY 1,439 billion week-on-week[23] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.13%[23] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF dropped below 20%, closing at 18.72% last week[23] Profit Trends - The profit margin for November was 5.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.37 percentage points, with the decline expanding from -6.70% to -7.22%[32] - The industrial value-added growth rate in November was 5.4%, up from 5.3% in October, indicating a slight acceleration[32] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November was -2.5%, an improvement from -2.9% in October, narrowing the decline by 0.4 percentage points[32] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to maintain positions with a neutral to slightly long duration in the bond market due to short-term liquidity constraints and the potential for monetary easing[23] - The recommendation is to observe the upcoming December PMI data for further insights into economic recovery[18]

- 9 - [Table_BaseData] 行业数据 综合净利率（%） 6.9 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] [Table_Report] 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 存货周转率（%） 42.56 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（12 月第 4 周） 1) 工程机械：出口保持增长。2024 年 1-11 月，我国工程机械出 口 478.2 亿美元，同比+7.3%，其中 11 月当月同比+16.7%。从 出口区域看，在欧美需求放缓环境下，一带一路、非洲、拉美 等新兴市场表现较好，1-11 月累计同比增速分别为 12.05%、 30.15%、25.38%。从出口产品看，挖掘机 1-11 月出口 74.9 亿 美元，同比-2.8%，11 月当月同比+31%，呈回暖趋势；起重机 及混凝土 1-11 月累计同比增速分别为 12%及 31.5%，保持增 长态势。我们认为，虽然欧美需求放缓，但中东、非洲及拉美 等新兴市场需求潜力较大，同时国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on the explosive demand for high-speed copper connection cables [3]. Core Viewpoints - The TMT sector has shown varied performance, with communication equipment and devices leading in gains, while the computer and media sectors faced declines. The overall TMT sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index [5]. - The demand for Active Electrical Cables (AEC) and Active Copper Cables (ACC) is expected to surge, significantly driving the demand for high-speed copper connection cables. The ACC market is projected to grow from $0.15 billion in 2024 to $3.61 billion by 2029, with a 5-year CAGR of 90%. Similarly, AEC sales are anticipated to rise from $2.18 billion in 2024 to $13.12 billion in 2029, with a 5-year CAGR of 43% [5]. - Domestic manufacturers of high-speed copper connection cables are expected to gain a competitive edge in the current AI wave due to their superior capacity and yield compared to overseas counterparts, making them worthy of investment attention [5]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The TMT sector's weekly performance showed communication at +0.39%, electronics at -0.66%, computers at -4.25%, and media at -7.22%, with the overall TMT sector lagging behind the CSI 300 index [5]. - Top-performing sub-industries included communication network equipment (+2.93%), printed circuit boards (+2.21%), and other electronics (+0.88%). The worst performers were mass publishing (-8.07%), portal websites (-8.74%), and marketing agencies (-12.36%) [5]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Significant events include the launch of the Baichuan4-Finance model by Baichuan Intelligent, which surpassed GPT-4o in accuracy, and the establishment of the Open Intelligent Computing Industry Alliance by ZTE and over 40 partners to accelerate AI applications [22][38]. - The report highlights the expected growth in the semiconductor market, with a 26% increase in total revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, driven by strong demand for AI-related components [48].

存货周转率（%） 42.56 数据来源：聚源资讯 [Table_Title] 关注市内免税店增量落地情况 3) 11 月中大排量摩托车出口数据增长强劲。据中国摩托车协会，11 月中 大排量摩托车（250cc+）销量 5.48 万辆，同比+42.2%，环比-10.2%。其 中内销 2.45 万辆，同比+4.2%，环比-12.8%；出口 3.03 万辆，同比 +101.4%，环比-8%。1-11 月累计销量 68.9 万辆，同比+41%，其中内销 37.7 万辆，同比+20.8%，出口 31.2 万辆，同比+77%。11 月份中大排量 摩托车出口同比延续高增长，内销在季节因素下表现平稳。近年来随着 摩托车自主品牌的崛起及中大排量制造能力不断提升，自主品牌出海有 望量价齐升，摩托车板块有望维持高景气度，建议持续关注。 í 2.2公司公告 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_PageHeader] 2024 年 12 月 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 市场有风险 入市需谨慎 Figure 2 消费二级子行业周度涨跌幅 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--- ...