C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 2025 年 5 月 19 日 | 朱吉翔 | | | --- | --- | | H70138@capital.com.tw | 150 | | 目标价(元) | | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 电子 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/5/16) | | | 122.29 | | 上证指数(2025/5/16) | | | 3367.46 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 147.56/64.13 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 664.06 | | | A 股数(百万) | | 663.72 | | | A 市值(亿元) | | 811.66 | | | 主要股东 | | 朱一明(06.89%) | | | 每股净值(元) | | 25.29 | | | 股价/账面净值 | | 4.83 | | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) | 11.2 -4.8 | 46.6 | | | 近期评等 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its cost leadership position while facing significant operational pressure due to declining prices across the photovoltaic industry [4][6] - The company has achieved a high-purity silicon annual production capacity of over 900,000 tons and solar cell production capacity exceeding 150 GW in 2024 [4] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with significant advancements in technology expected to enhance production capabilities [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 919.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 70.39 billion yuan [8][9] - The forecast for 2025 indicates a revenue of 666 billion yuan, with a projected net loss of 34.7 billion yuan, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [7][9] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 6.4%, with a significant drop in profitability reflected in the negative net profit margins for 2025 [9][10] Market Position and Production Capacity - The company holds a market share of approximately 30% in the silicon material segment, leading globally with a sales volume of 467,600 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.76% [4][5] - In the battery segment, the company expects to sell 87.68 GW in 2024, achieving a global market share of about 14% [4] - The company’s module sales are projected to reach 45.71 GW in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.93% [5] Cost Management and Technological Advancements - The company has successfully reduced its comprehensive electricity consumption and silicon consumption to 46 kWh and 1.04 kg respectively, with cash costs for silicon production dropping to below 27,000 yuan per ton [6] - The company is advancing its TNC technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with expectations for mainstream power levels to increase by over 25W by 2025 [6] - The company’s HJT pilot line is set to commence production in June 2024, with the highest module power reaching 790.8W [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][15]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 581 million yuan, up 1% year-on-year [4][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 653 million yuan, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 135 million yuan, down 9% year-on-year [4]. - The company has seen significant growth in sales to major clients, with revenue from the aviation industry increasing by 9% to 1.155 billion yuan, and sales to the China Aviation Development system rising by 16% to 976 million yuan [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.64%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product mix [6]. - The company plans to expand its international market presence, having signed a long-term framework contract with a foreign client worth approximately 2.1 billion yuan [6]. - The 2025 financial forecast estimates revenue between 2.99 billion and 3.22 billion yuan, representing a growth of 2% to 10%, with net profit expected to be between 590 million and 640 million yuan, also reflecting a growth of 2% to 10% [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue and net profit for 2025 are 3.165 billion yuan and 638 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 7.93% and 9.89% [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.42 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 38.06 [11][14]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 11.7%, indicating a strong financial position [3][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company experienced stable revenue in Q1 2025, achieving 560 million yuan (up 2.1% year-on-year), but faced a decline in net profit to 60 million yuan (down 26.9% year-on-year) due to high base effects [1][2] - The decline in profit margins is attributed to several one-time factors, including increased management expenses and reduced government subsidies, which are expected to recover quickly [2] - The company's production capacity in Vietnam is expanding, and the impact of U.S. tariffs on orders is limited, with stable orders expected in Q2 and Q3 [3] - A new round of share buybacks is underway, with a plan to repurchase 50-100 million yuan worth of shares, enhancing long-term shareholder returns [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.882 billion, 3.259 billion, and 3.678 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 13%, and 12.9% [6] - Expected net profits for the same period are 350.7 million, 405.3 million, and 466.4 million yuan, with growth rates of 7.9%, 15.6%, and 15.1% [6] - The company maintains a stable dividend payout ratio of over 50%, indicating strong shareholder returns [4]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 生物股份（600201）2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 推荐（下调） 事项： 公司发布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报：24 年实现营收 12.55 亿，同比下降 21.45%，归母净利 1.09 亿，同比下降 61.58%，扣非归母净利 4948.73 万元， 同比下降 80.55%。25 年一季度实现营收 3.52 亿，同比增长 1.06%，归母净利 7648.11 万元，同比下降 27.57%，扣非归母净利 5901.56 万元，同比下降 38.09%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,255 | 1,514 | 1,750 | 2,018 | | 同比增速(%) | -21.4% | 20.6% | 15.6% | 15.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 109 | 197 | 250 | 316 | | 同比增速(%) | -61.6% | 80. ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 05 月 19 日 凯立新材 (688269) ——业绩符合预期，产销扩大盈利回暖，基础化工催化剂 规模优势显现 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 31.88 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 34.99/20.86 | | 市净率 | 4.1 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 2.20 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 4,167 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,367.46/10,179.60 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.72 | | 资产负债率% | 50.15 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 131/131 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 05-16 06-16 07-16 08-16 09-16 10-16 11-16 12-16 01 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 10 months [7][15]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 581 million yuan, up 1% year-on-year [4][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 653 million yuan, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 135 million yuan, down 9% year-on-year [4]. - The company has seen significant growth in sales to major clients, with revenue from the aviation industry increasing by 9% to 1.155 billion yuan, and sales to the China Aviation Development system rising by 16% to 976 million yuan [5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.64%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product mix [6]. - The company is expanding its international market presence, having signed a long-term framework contract with a foreign client worth approximately 2.1 billion yuan [6]. - The company aims for steady growth in 2025, projecting revenue between 2.99 billion and 3.22 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 10% [7]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits for 2025 to be between 590 million and 640 million yuan, also reflecting a growth of 2% to 10% [7]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is estimated at 3.165 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.93% [11]. - The expected net profit for 2026 is 739 million yuan, with a growth rate of 15.79% [11]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 41.82 in 2024 to 28.02 by 2027 [11].

通威股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600438） 公司点评 2024 年业绩符合预期，保持成本领先地位 -36% -14% 8% 30% 52% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 通威股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：张志邦 执业证书号：S0010523120004 邮箱：zhangzhibang@hazq.com 分析师：王璐 执业证书号：S0010525040001 邮箱：wanglu1@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.通威股份：硅料领先地位稳固，暗 夜将望破晓 2024-12-31 主要观点： [Table_Rank] 投资评级：增持（下调） 报告日期： 2025-05-19 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 17.06 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 32.05/15.79 | | 总股本（百万股） | 4,502 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 4,502 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | 768 | ...

股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 2025 年 5 月 19 日 | 朱吉翔 | | | --- | --- | | H70138@capital.com.tw | 150 | | 目标价(元) | | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 电子 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/5/16) | | | 122.29 | | 上证指数(2025/5/16) | | | 3367.46 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 147.56/64.13 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 664.06 | | | A 股数(百万) | | 663.72 | | | A 市值(亿元) | | 811.66 | | | 主要股东 | | 朱一明(06.89%) | | | 每股净值(元) | | 25.29 | | | 股价/账面净值 | | 4.83 | | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) | 11.2 -4.8 | 46.6 | ...

2025 年 05 月 19 日 福莱新材 (605488) ——业绩符合预期，折旧转固拖累业绩，进入柔性传感大 市场 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 47.95 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 62.83/10.64 | | 市净率 | 6.3 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.63 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 9,509 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,367.46/10,179.60 | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.59 | | 资产负债率% | 54.75 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 202/198 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 05-16 06-16 07-16 08-16 09-16 10-16 11-16 12-16 01-16 02-16 03-16 04-16 0 ...