证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 03 13 年 月 日 中创新航（03931.HK） 海外业务可期，入通改善流动性 2025 年 2 月 24 日，公司发布盈利预喜。根据公司初步评估，2024 年公 司净利润介于 7.86-8.74 亿元，较 2023 年的 4.37 亿元同比增长 80%- 100%。业绩增长的主要驱动因素包括： Q1 出货规模值得期待，关注海外业务。根据高工锂电，中创新航 2025Q1 动储电池出货量预计达 20GWh，同比增幅近 150%。其中，面向出口车型 的出货量预计占中创新航动力板块整体出货量的 30%以上，这可能得益 于：1）2024 年 7 月阳光电源与沙特 ALGIHAZ 成功签约当时全球最大储 能项目，容量高达 7.8GWh，中创新航为该项目供应高性能电芯；2）2024 年 11 月，阳光电源再获欧洲市场 4.4GWh 储能订单，中创新航再次为阳 光电源储能项目配套高性能电芯；3）公司和多家国际车企就新平台项目 达成合作，并助力多个国内车企实现整车出口。 2025 年 3 月 10 日起，中创新航被正式纳入港股通。3 月 9 日中创新航 在港 ...

投资逻辑 友邦业务覆盖亚太地区 18 个市场，经营及财务表现稳健。1）新 单保费与 NBV 底部周期有韧性，2023 年来重回高增长，2024 年 NBV Margin 企稳回升。2019 年开始受香港社会事件、公共卫生事件等 因素 NBV 承压，2018-2022 年 4 年 NBV 复合增速为-6%，但好于内 地其他寿险公司。在公共卫生事件因素消除、香港通关、内地预 定利率切换下 2023-24 年 NBV 重回双位数正增长，2024Q1-3 NBV 同比+20%，NBV Margin 开始企稳回升。2）得益于新业务价值的稳 定增长以及存量高价值保单的稳定摊销，营运利润实现平稳增长。 2024H1，公司税后归母营运利润同比+3.5%（固定汇率口径同比 +7%）。3）公司内含价值的成长性和可信性兼具。友邦投资回报假 设和贴现率假设根据市场收益率变动及时调整，以保证价值评估 的审慎性。且资产负债久期缺口较小，其内含价值和新业务价值 的利率敏感性远低于内地上市公司。NBV 增长稳健及营运差异优 秀，使得友邦的 ROEV 维持在较高位。4）公司资本管理政策优化， 股东回报的可预期性、稳定性提升。友邦自上市以来分红 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price yet to be specified [6]. Core Insights - The company is enhancing its product offerings with innovative urban light outdoor series and stylish functional jackets, catering to the diverse needs of young consumers [1]. - The brand is transitioning from being recognized as a global leader in down jackets to a comprehensive leader in the category, focusing on brand awareness and consumer perception [2]. - The company is leveraging smart logistics and inventory management to ensure efficient operations and quick response to market demands, which is a key competitive advantage [3]. - The revenue forecasts for FY25-27 have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 25.7 billion, RMB 28.6 billion, and RMB 32.2 billion respectively, alongside adjusted net profits and EPS figures [4]. Summary by Sections Product Development - The company is launching a new collection of light outdoor and functional jackets that balance style and protective features, appealing to urban and outdoor consumers [1]. Brand Strategy - The brand is focusing on enhancing its image as a leading down jacket expert through integrated marketing strategies and consumer engagement initiatives [2]. Supply Chain Management - The company has implemented a smart logistics system that manages inventory across various channels, ensuring high availability of popular products and quick replenishment [3]. Financial Projections - Adjustments to financial forecasts reflect a cautious outlook on the macro consumption environment, with revised revenue and profit expectations for the upcoming fiscal years [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The report highlights optimism regarding Alibaba's commercial opportunities arising from its strong commitment to technology investment and the integration of AI within its ecosystem. The acceleration of commercialization in its core business, particularly through intelligent advertising tools, is expected to enhance growth [2][4]. Financial Performance - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba reported revenue of 280.2 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders reached 51.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 239% to 48.9 billion yuan [4][8]. Business Segments - **Taotian Group**: The group experienced a 9% year-on-year growth in CMR, driven by the full-quarter impact of basic software service fees and increased penetration of comprehensive promotion tools. EBITA grew by 2% year-on-year, indicating stable profitability during the commercialization acceleration phase [8]. - **AIDC**: Revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, although EBITA losses expanded to 5 billion yuan, primarily due to investments aimed at user acquisition during overseas shopping festivals [8]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with EBITA rising by 33%, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services and significant increases in AI-related product usage [8]. Membership Growth - The number of 88VIP members reached 49 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 million and a year-on-year increase of 19 million, suggesting that the optimization of membership benefits is driving new buyer and order growth [8]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures for FY2025 Q1-Q3 were reported at 121 billion, 175 billion, and 318 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 259% in the latest quarter [8]. Profit Forecast - The report projects net profits attributable to shareholders for FY2025-2027 to be 139.6 billion, 157.6 billion, and 189.3 billion yuan, respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for King’s Ray Biotechnology [3][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing positive development across its three main segments, with an expected improvement in profitability. The joint venture Legend Biotech is ramping up production, which is anticipated to contribute profits to the parent company in 2026 [3][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at $595 million, reflecting a 6.1% increase. The group net profit is expected to reach approximately $2.96 billion, marking a significant turnaround from losses, primarily due to a one-time investment gain from the merger with Legend Biotech [9]. - The adjusted net profit from continuing operations is stable at about $59.8 million, up by 2.9% [9]. - Revenue breakdown includes: - Life Sciences segment: $455 million (+10.2%), with an adjusted gross margin of 52% (+5.9 percentage points) [9]. - CDMO segment: $95 million (-13.2%), with an adjusted gross margin of $14 million [9]. - Baisjie segment: $54 million (+24.6%), with an adjusted gross margin of 36.1% (+2.8 percentage points) [9]. - The CAR-T therapy sales are projected to reach nearly $1 billion, with significant new capacity coming online [9]. Growth Catalysts - The CAR-T therapy is expected to exceed sales expectations, and a recovery in investment and financing is anticipated [9]. - The approval of the second-line MM in the U.S. is expected to drive sales growth, with CARVYKTI projected to generate $963 million in revenue for 2024, a 92.6% increase [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 1.50 HKD and a fair value of 2.41 HKD [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a turning point in operations, driven by its comprehensive AIDD technology platform and strategic investments aimed at resolving debt issues [7]. - The company's revenue is projected to recover, with estimates of 2,053 million RMB in 2024, 2,393 million RMB in 2025, and 2,823 million RMB in 2026, reflecting growth rates of -4.8%, 16.6%, and 17.9% respectively [7]. - The introduction of strategic investors has improved governance and operational efficiency, facilitating a restructuring of the company's business model [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Investment and AIDD Technology Platform - The company has introduced strategic investors to alleviate debt crises and enhance governance, leading to improved operational synergy [7][30]. - The transition from SBDD/FBDD/ASMS platforms to a full-process AIDD technology platform has been established, integrating AI to enhance drug discovery capabilities [7][34]. 2. Industry Recovery and Project Advancement - The CRO business is gradually recovering due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with new orders expected to support future revenue growth [7][60]. - The company has expanded its client base to over 2,350, indicating a strong market presence and diversified revenue streams [7][56]. 3. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 257 million RMB in 2024, 323 million RMB in 2025, and 395 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.12, 0.15, and 0.18 RMB per share [7]. - A PE valuation method suggests a target valuation of 2.41 HKD per share based on a 15X PE multiple for 2025 [7].

非银金融 上 市 公 司 变量 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 61.85 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8640.61 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 70.25/53.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 429.25 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 694.01 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0832 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 17% 37% 57% HSCEI 中银航空租赁 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 2025 年 03 月 13 日 中银航空租赁 (02588) ——滞俄飞机减计影响出清，交付掣肘与降息放缓成关键 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of $8.182 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $392 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.8% [2][4] - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.9 per share, combined with an interim dividend of HKD 0.4 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 69% [2] - The manufacturing business saw a strong recovery with a revenue of $5.621 billion in 2024, up 11.1% year-on-year, driven by a significant rebound in global sports footwear orders [4][5] - Retail business revenue faced pressure, declining by 8.0% year-on-year to $1.845 billion, primarily due to reduced foot traffic in physical stores and a net decrease of 75 stores [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the manufacturing business's capacity utilization rate improved to 93%, up 14 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin increase of 0.7 percentage points to 19.9% [4] - The retail business's gross margin improved slightly to 34.2%, with a net profit of $49.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5] - The company expects revenue for 2025 to reach $8.493 billion, with a projected year-on-year growth of 3.8% [6] Future Outlook - For the first two months of 2025, the manufacturing business revenue grew by 7.3%, while retail revenue declined by 4.3% [5] - The company anticipates a steady recovery in manufacturing business growth and a potential positive growth in retail business by the end of 2025 [5][6] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $465 million, $502 million, and $532 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.5%, 8.0%, and 6.1% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 4.15 HKD, maintaining the rating despite slight adjustments to profit forecasts [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is enhancing its product offerings with a new urban light outdoor series and innovative designs in sun protection clothing, appealing to younger consumers [1]. - The brand is transitioning from being recognized as a leading down jacket brand to a comprehensive leader in the down apparel market, focusing on brand awareness and consumer engagement [2]. - The company is leveraging smart logistics and inventory management to ensure efficient operations across its distribution channels, which is a key competitive advantage in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Product Development - The company is introducing a new urban light outdoor series and a fashionable rain jacket line that balances style and functionality, catering to diverse consumer needs [1]. Brand Strategy - The brand aims to deepen consumer recognition and reputation through integrated marketing strategies, enhancing its position as a global leader in down apparel [2]. Supply Chain Management - The company employs a smart logistics system to manage inventory across various sales channels, ensuring quick response times and high operational efficiency [3]. Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY25-27 to 25.7 billion RMB, 28.6 billion RMB, and 32.2 billion RMB, with net profits projected at 3.5 billion RMB, 3.9 billion RMB, and 4.4 billion RMB respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) with a target price of HK$34.10, indicating a potential upside of +30% from the current price of HK$26.20 [1]. Core Views - The report anticipates a low double-digit growth in net profit for 2025, driven by continued digital transformation in both domestic and overseas markets [6][7]. - Domestic revenue is expected to grow approximately 4% year-on-year in 2025, while overseas revenue is projected to increase by around 5% [6][7]. - The overall revenue growth for 2025 is estimated at about 4%, with a focus on product innovation and market expansion strategies [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the estimated revenue is projected to be RMB 283.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [7][9]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 21.2 billion, reflecting a growth of 10.7% compared to 2024 [7][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 2.26, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 10.5 [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic sales are projected to grow by approximately 4%, with specific growth in the refrigerator and washing machine segments [4]. - The air conditioning segment is expected to see a revenue increase of around 8% due to improved sales strategies and market conditions [4]. - Overseas revenue growth is anticipated at about 5%, with significant contributions from North America and Europe [5]. Valuation - The target price of HK$34.10 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14 times the estimated earnings for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to current market prices [6][7]. - The report maintains a 10% discount rate for Haier's A/H shares, reinforcing the target price stability [6].