2025 年 03 月 13 日 中银航空租赁 (02588) ——滞俄飞机减计影响出清，交付掣肘与降息放缓成关键 变量 上 市 公 司 非银金融 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 61.85 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8640.61 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 70.25/53.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 429.25 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 694.01 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0832 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 17% 37% 57% HSCEI 中银航空租赁 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 事件：3 月 13 日，中银航空租赁披露 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for CGN Mining with a target price of HK$2.36, indicating a potential upside of 55.5% from the current price of HK$1.52 [3]. Core Insights - CGN Mining's profit alert indicates a net profit drop of HK$130-180 million year-on-year for 2024, primarily due to a one-off dividend withholding tax and a fair value loss from share swaps related to Paladin Energy. However, excluding these items, the pretax profit from continuing operations is expected to grow by HK$230-280 million year-on-year, translating to a growth rate of 41-50% [1]. - The company is set to release its full-year results on March 20, 2025, and will host an analyst meeting on March 21, 2025 [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$7,363 million in FY23 to HK$10,992 million in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.3% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to decline from HK$497.1 million in FY23 to HK$443.4 million in FY24, a decrease of 10.8% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decrease from 6.54 HK$ cents in FY23 to 5.83 HK$ cents in FY24 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 26.1x in FY24, decreasing to 17.1x in FY25 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.8% in FY23 to 10.8% in FY24, before recovering to 14.6% in FY25 [2]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of CGN Mining is approximately HK$11,553 million, with an average turnover of HK$72.3 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has experienced a 1-month decline of 2.6% and a 3-month decline of 7.9% [5]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholder is China General Nuclear Power Corporation, holding 56.9% of the shares, followed by China Chengtong Holding Group with 10.0% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's strong commitment to technology investment and the potential commercialization opportunities arising from the new AI cycle. The integration of intelligent advertising tools is already contributing to the advertising business, and the commercialization process of Taotian is accelerating. The focus on improving the merchant business environment is expected to optimize the Taobao ecosystem [2][5]. Financial Performance - For FY2025 Q3, Alibaba's revenue reached 280.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 51.3 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 48.9 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 239% [5]. Business Segments - Taotian Group: The CMR (Customer Management Revenue) grew by 9% year-on-year, driven by the full-quarter impact of basic software service fees and the increased penetration of comprehensive promotion tools. The EBITA for Taotian Group increased by 2% year-on-year, indicating stable profitability during the commercialization acceleration phase [5]. - AIDC: Revenue grew by 32% year-on-year, although EBITA losses expanded to 5 billion yuan, primarily due to investments aimed at user acquisition during overseas shopping festivals [5]. - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with EBITA growing by 33%. The capital expenditure for FY2025 Q1-Q3 saw a significant increase, reflecting a 259% year-on-year growth [5]. Membership Growth - The number of 88VIP members reached 49 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 million and a year-on-year increase of 19 million. This growth is attributed to the optimization of the membership benefits system, which is expected to drive new buyers and orders [5]. Future Profit Projections - The report projects the net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 to be 139.6 billion yuan, 157.6 billion yuan, and 189.3 billion yuan, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company and lowers the target price to HKD 6.6, indicating a potential downside of 14% from the current price of HKD 7.7 [2][3][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has shown a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 11% in the second half of 2024, reversing a declining trend since 2022. However, the adjusted net profit margin has narrowed, failing to continue the previous expansion trend [2][7]. - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve low double-digit revenue growth, but the potential for profit margin improvement appears limited due to significant expense reductions in 2024 and forward-looking investments in elder care and AI projects [2][7]. - The integration with Ping An Group is anticipated to enhance business synergies, but the extent of additional business growth from this consolidation remains uncertain [2][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 4,674 million - 2024: RMB 4,808 million (up 2.9% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 5,480 million (up 14.0% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 6,253 million (up 14.1% YoY) - 2027E: RMB 7,211 million (up 15.3% YoY) [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching RMB 81 million, and is expected to grow to RMB 169 million in 2025 [3][8]. Market Position - The company's current market capitalization stands at HKD 16,686 million, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 51 million over the past three months [3][7]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 3.2 to HKD 9.6, indicating significant volatility [3][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio for 2025E is projected at 2.9, decreasing to 2.2 by 2027E [3][8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 0.1, with a diluted EPS of RMB 0.2 by 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 0.70, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 0.57 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a marginal improvement in performance, with a high probability of earnings recovery in 2025. This is supported by a low valuation and an increased dividend yield, which provides significant upside potential compared to downside risks [8]. - The revenue trend is anticipated to reverse starting in the second quarter of 2024, with management expecting a return to healthier inventory levels in the industry by April. The company aims for its 2025 revenue to remain stable year-on-year [8]. - There is potential for a slight improvement in operating profit margins in 2025 due to expected retail discount improvements and increased sales of new products. However, the growth of e-commerce may continue to impact channel structure [8]. - The company is likely to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in 2025, with an expected dividend yield exceeding 10%, providing a safety net for the stock price [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 20,064 million - 2024: RMB 18,454 million - 2025: RMB 18,592 million - 2026: RMB 19,272 million - 2027: RMB 19,782 million - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 490 million in 2023 to RMB 684 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 5.6x in 2024 to 4.0x in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of HKD 0.48 to HKD 0.69, with a current market capitalization of HKD 3,036 million [4][8]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 0.7 million, suggesting moderate liquidity in the stock [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q4 2024, reporting a net profit of 0.8 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter since its establishment, with a full-year revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, representing a 92.06% increase year-on-year [4][8] - The launch of the new model B10 has commenced pre-sales, showcasing competitive pricing and advanced features, particularly in the lidar-equipped versions [6][27] - The company has upgraded its technology with the release of the LEAP 3.5 architecture, enhancing smart driving capabilities and overall vehicle performance [20][23] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 92.06% [4][8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 8.38%, with Q4 achieving a record high of 13.3% [11][33] - The company sold over 293,300 vehicles in 2024, with a quarterly average of over 40,000 units sold [14][17] Sales and Revenue Projections - The company expects to achieve revenues of 58.3 billion yuan, 84.0 billion yuan, and 116.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 81.3%, 44.1%, and 38.5% [35] - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at -0.72 billion yuan, transitioning to 24.88 billion yuan in 2026 and 50.81 billion yuan in 2027 [35] Product Development and Market Strategy - The B10 model is positioned to compete strongly in the market with a starting price of 10.98 million yuan for the base model and up to 13.98 million yuan for the lidar version, emphasizing high cost-performance [6][28] - The company plans to expand its product lines with the introduction of multiple models in the B and C series, aiming for annual sales exceeding 500,000 units by 2025 [31][33] Valuation and Market Position - The reasonable valuation for the company is set between 56.16 and 60.84 Hong Kong dollars, reflecting a potential upside of 12.1% to 21.4% from the current stock price [35] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of over 10% with monthly sales of 40,000 units or more, supported by cost control and product structure optimization [33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to CR Beverage, with a target price of HKD 17.50, indicating an expected return above 10% over the next 12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - CR Beverage is expected to benefit from a dual-driven revenue growth strategy focusing on national expansion and market penetration, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% for its packaged water segment from FY24 to FY26 [1][9]. - The company plans to enhance its gross margin from 44.7% in FY23 to 49.0% in FY26 by increasing its self-production ratio from approximately 50% in 1H24 to 70% in FY26, supported by a planned investment of 4.3 billion RMB in capacity construction [2][9]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 16.8% from FY24 to FY26, driven by the expansion of self-production facilities and a strong brand presence [2][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 12,623 in 2022 to 16,443 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 7.1%, 5.3%, 7.0%, and 8.1% respectively [3]. - Net profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 990 in 2022 to 2,067 in 2026, with growth rates of 15.3%, 34.3%, 22.3%, 16.3%, and 9.3% [3]. - Diluted earnings per share (in RMB) are forecasted to rise from 0.49 in 2022 to 0.86 in 2026, reflecting similar growth trends [3]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.3 in 2022 to 14.4 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3]. - The expected dividend per share (in HKD) is set to increase from 0 in 2023 to 0.28 in 2026, with corresponding yields rising from 1.6% to 2.1% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - CR Beverage holds an 18.4% market share in China's packaged water market, ranking second, with significant growth potential in northern and central-western regions [1]. - The company aims to deepen its market penetration in lower-tier cities and enhance retail network coverage, which is expected to drive market share growth [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve nearly 10% revenue growth in 2024, with a net loss not exceeding 275 million USD, representing a reduction of over 58% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The overseas business revenue is projected to grow approximately 80% year-on-year, benefiting from the synergies and advantages of a global platform [1]. - The company has focused on core business areas, leading to stable revenue growth and a significant reduction in losses through various measures [2]. - The company is a leading player in high-value consumables, with strong R&D investment and a robust pipeline of products, including 36 green channel products and multiple regulatory approvals [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 951 million USD in 2023 to 1,045 million USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 10% [5]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from 478 million USD in 2023 to 270 million USD in 2024, and further to 59 million USD in 2025, with a forecasted profit of 91 million USD in 2026 [5][9]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in revenue from its various business lines, including a 145%-155% increase in revenue from surgical robots and over 100% growth in overseas revenue from heart valve business [2][3].

纺织服饰 2025 年 03 月 14 日 上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 361 度 (01361) ——业绩表现超预期，分红率稳步提升 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 4.49 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8640.61 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 4.85/3.15 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 92.84 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -28% 22% 72% HSCEI 361度 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 | 货币单位：人民币 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 84.23 | 100. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 full-year performance was below expectations, with revenue of $4.451 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, which fell short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $4.566 billion. Net profit reached $154 million, up 19% year-on-year, but also below the expected $187 million [1][4]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 5-15% for 2025, significantly lower than the consensus estimate of 25% [1][4]. - The demand for AI servers remains strong, contributing to the growth in the network infrastructure segment, which is expected to maintain double-digit growth in Q1 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of $154 million, with a net profit margin of 3.5%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase year-on-year. The revenue breakdown shows a decline in smartphone revenue by 9.7%, while network infrastructure and electric vehicle segments grew by 39.1% and 57.6%, respectively [1][3]. Business Segments - The network infrastructure segment is experiencing rapid growth due to increased demand for AI servers and related components. The company expects this segment to continue growing at a rate greater than 15% in Q1 2025 [2]. - The automotive business is benefiting from acquisitions, with significant revenue growth expected following the integration of Voltaira and Kabel [2]. - The acoustic business saw slight revenue growth due to new product launches, which helped mitigate the impact of a weak consumer electronics market [3]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 to $242 million and $326 million, respectively, reflecting a reduction of 11% and 13% from previous forecasts. The 2027 net profit is estimated at $393 million [4][5].