Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current closing price of HKD 61.25 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The new business value for 2024 is expected to grow by 18%, aligning with the report's expectations but falling short of market expectations by 2%. The new business value ratio stands at 54.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product structure [6][7]. - The Hong Kong market contributes the most to new business value, accounting for 35% with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Local business and mainland visitor new business values have also shown significant growth of 24% and 22%, respectively [6]. - The company has received approval to enter four new provinces in mainland China, indicating ongoing growth potential in that market. The company aims to enter 1-2 new provinces annually [6][7]. - The operational profit for 2024 is expected to increase by 7%, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to grow by 12%, surpassing the company's guidance [6][7]. - AIA Group plans to return 75% of its net free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a new USD 1.6 billion share repurchase plan announced [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AIA Group are as follows: USD 6,638 million in 2023, increasing to USD 9,712 million in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2025E [5][13]. - Net profit is expected to rise from USD 3,764 million in 2023 to USD 7,111 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% in 2023 and 7.0% in 2025E [5][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation over time [5][6]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from USD 69,035 million in 2024 to USD 73,456 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7][8].

上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 公用事业 2025 年 03 月 17 日 港华智慧能源 (01083) ——核心利润大幅增长 光伏添成长动力 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万港元） | 19,842 | 21,314 | 21,861 | 22,739 | 23,499 | | 同比增长率（%） | -1.2 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.3 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 1,575 | 1,606 | 1,809 | 1,928 | 2,029 | | 同比增长率（%） | 63.2 | 2.0 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 5.3 | | 每股收益（港元/股） | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.58 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 6.89 | 6.85 | 6.86 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% in 2024, driven by high-margin products, with total revenue reaching 10.07 billion yuan and net profit increasing to 1.15 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company has maintained a stable net profit margin, with improvements in gross margin and a decrease in management fees contributing positively [1][2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, which is expected to enhance gross margin levels and improve cash flow in the coming years [4][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to grow by 19.6% to 10.07 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to rise by 19.5% to 1.15 billion yuan [1][20]. - The net profit margin for the second half of 2024 is anticipated to increase by 1 percentage point to 7.3%, supported by a 1.2 percentage point rise in gross margin and a 1.6 percentage point decrease in advertising expenses [2][20]. Store Expansion and E-commerce - The company opened a net of 16 adult stores and 3 children's stores in 2024, bringing the total to 5,750 and 2,548 stores respectively [3]. - The e-commerce channel is expected to grow by 12.2% year-on-year, with the proportion of exclusive products increasing to 83.6% [3]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - Operating cash flow is projected to decline to 0.7 billion yuan due to increased inventory and accounts receivable, with the net cash ratio dropping to 0.06 [1][19]. - The dividend payout ratio is expected to slightly increase to 45% in 2024 [1][4]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.3 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 12.2%, and 11.8% [4][20].

新股預覽 ─ 南山鋁業（2610.HK） 金屬製造行業 2025 年 03 月 17 日 背景 公司是東南亞三大氧化鋁生產企業之一：根據弗若斯特沙利文的資 料，截至 2023 年底，東南亞主要的氧化鋁生產國為印尼和越南，公司 是東南亞三大氧化鋁生產企業之一。二期氧化鋁生產項目的完成使公 司的氧化鋁設計年產能達到兩百萬噸，根據弗若斯特沙利文的資料， 按於 2023 年的設計年產能計，這使該集團在印尼及東南亞排名首位。 於 2023 年，根據弗若斯特沙利文的資料，該集團為東南亞氧化鋁市場 的第二大生產商，且按實際產量計，佔東南亞氧化鋁行業 34.9%的市 場份額。上述成就亦證明了公司的技術實力、卓越運營和發展承諾。 公司持續擴大產能：於 2024 年上半年，公司已啟動建設新氧化鋁生產 項目新增氧化鋁生產設施，其氧化鋁設計年產能為兩百萬噸。公司的 冶金級氧化鋁是生產電解鋁的重要原材料。根據弗若斯特沙利文的資 料，由於其在滿足高性能鋁產品的嚴格要求方面發揮著關鍵作用，因 此在東南亞市場上需求強勁。公司的產品質量超過 GB/T 24487-2022 標準的 AO-1 級，其卓越的化學成分證明了這一點。 行業仍具發展潛力 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current closing price of HKD 61.25 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The new business value for 2024 is expected to grow by 18%, aligning with the report's expectations but falling short of market expectations by 2%. The new business value ratio stands at 54.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product structure [6]. - The Hong Kong market contributes the largest share to new business value at 35%, with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Local business and mainland visitor new business values have increased by 24% and 22% respectively [6]. - The company has received approval to enter four new provinces in mainland China, indicating sustained growth potential in this market. The company aims to enter 1-2 new provinces annually [6]. - The operational profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to increase by 12%, surpassing the company's guidance [6]. - AIA Group plans to return 75% of its net free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a proposed new USD 1.6 billion share repurchase plan [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AIA Group are as follows: USD 6,638 million in 2023, increasing to USD 9,712 million in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% for 2023 and 41.3% for 2024 [5][7]. - Net profit is expected to rise from USD 3,764 million in 2023 to USD 7,111 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% in 2023 and 91.2% in 2024 [5][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation metrics over the forecast period [5][7]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from USD 69,035 million in 2024 to USD 73,456 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The operational profit (OPAT) is forecasted to be USD 6,605 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [7][8]. - The new business value is projected to reach USD 5,084 million in 2025E, with a growth rate of 7.9% [7][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 16.3% in 2025E, reflecting a slight decrease from previous years [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.02, representing a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 2.43 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with a continuous improvement in debt ratios. The overall market share slightly decreased, but the company is expected to benefit from Macau's ongoing recovery [2][3]. - The report highlights significant growth in net income, projecting a remarkable increase from a loss of HKD 2,009.8 million in 2023 to a profit of HKD 885.9 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27,585.7% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage through the performance of "上葡京" and the installation of smart gaming tables, which are expected to be completed by November this year [2][3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company reported a net income of HKD 21,623.2 million in 2023, with projections of HKD 30,400.2 million in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 33.0% [2][3]. - **EBITDA**: The EBITDA for 2023 was HKD 1,727.0 million, with a forecasted increase to HKD 4,517.7 million in 2025, showing a growth rate of 14.1% [2][3]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to rise significantly, from a loss in 2023 to a profit of HKD 885.9 million in 2025, with a projected net profit margin of 2.9% [2][3]. - **Debt Ratios**: The net debt/EBITDA ratio improved from 13.7 times to 6.3 times, indicating a healthier financial position [2][3]. Market Performance - The company's overall market share in Q4 2024 was 13.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The report notes that the company's cash balance is approximately HKD 3,220 million, with net debt around HKD 23,200 million [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest HKD 15-20 billion in capital expenditures starting in 2025, which includes renovations and expansions to enhance its offerings [2][3]. - The report anticipates double-digit growth in gaming revenue for January-February 2025, with the market share expected to remain stable compared to Q4 2024 [2][3].

公 华福证券 运动服装 2025 年 03 月 14 日 司 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 361 度（01361.HK） 24 年业绩点评：全年派息比例提高，超品新店型 放量可期 事件：公司于 3.12 发布 24 年业绩，全年实现收入 100.7 亿元，同比+19.6%， 实现权益持有人应占溢利 11.5 亿元，同比+19.5%，业绩符合预期。公司派 发末期股息 10 港仙/股，全年派息比例为 45%，同比提升 4.8Pct。 经营分析： 技术赋能专业运动品类，童装延续亮眼表现 评 成人装中鞋/服于 2024 年分别实现营收 42.9/30.9 亿元，同比 +22%/15%，主要得益于量增拉动。公司持续夯实专业运动领域实力， 跑步品类加强对材料创新探索，推出飚速 2 等专业竞速碳板跑鞋强化 专业实力，并赞助多项马拉松赛事；篮球品类布局约基奇等核心球星 资源，期间 JOKER 1 全球首发带动品牌加速国际化进程。 童装 2024 年营收同增 19.5%至 23.4 亿元，其中鞋/服分别同比 +18%/23%，随着童装业务推出结合专业功能、健康科技以及儿童时尚 元素的产品满足青少年多元化需求，鞋服产品均呈现高景 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月17日 361 度（01361.HK） 优于大市 2024 年业绩增长 20%，高毛利产品驱动增长 全年收入和净利润增长20%，派息率45%。2024年公司收入增长19.6%至100.7 亿元，归母净利润增长 19.5%至 11.5 亿元，成人和童装收入均实现约 20%的 增长。归母净利率保持平稳，拆分来看，毛利率提升和管理费率下降分别贡 献 0.4 和 0.3 百分点，得益于专业跑鞋和篮球鞋等高毛利产品占比提升和数 字化管理提效，销售费用率基本稳定，但应收账款减值增加拖累约 1 个百分 点、其他收益比率减少影响了 1 个百分点。经营性现金流净额大幅下降至 0.7 亿元，主要由于存货和应收账款的增加抵消了利润增长，存货/应收/应付周 转天数分别提升 14/0/-22 天至 107/149/88 天，存货周转天数增加主要因 2024 年底临近春节提前备货，应付账款周转天数缩短主要因公司策略性缩短 结算周期、加强和供应商合作；进而导致经营活动现金流净额下滑，净现比 降至 0.06。2024 全年派息率小幅增加至 45%。 | 证券分析师：丁诗洁 | 证券分析师：刘佳琪 | | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor (09863.HK) [1] Core Insights - Leapmotor's Q4 2024 performance turned profitable with a net profit of 0.8 million yuan, a significant improvement from a net loss of 9.5 million yuan in Q4 2023 [7] - The company achieved a total revenue of 13.455 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 154.9% [7] - The strong sales performance in Q4, with 121,000 vehicles sold, represents a year-on-year growth of 118.4% [7] - The gross margin for Q4 was 13.3%, exceeding expectations due to scale effects and cost management [7] - Leapmotor's overseas expansion is progressing, with 13,726 vehicles exported and plans to establish over 550 overseas sales and service outlets by 2025 [7] - The launch of the B10 model received over 31,688 orders within 48 hours, indicating strong market demand [7] - The report projects a significant increase in net profit for 2025 and 2026, with estimates of 2.0 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 16.747 billion yuan, with projections of 32.164 billion yuan for 2024, representing a growth rate of 92.06% [1] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be a loss of 2.821 billion yuan, but a profit of 204.24 million yuan is projected for 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from a loss of 3.15 yuan in 2023 to a profit of 2.72 yuan by 2027 [1] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 73.25%, indicating a relatively high level of debt [6]

2025 年 3 月 17 日 公司研究 能源工程订单内外开花，算力中心建设蓬勃发展 ——中国能源建设（3996.HK）经营近况点评 要点 事件：当地时间 3 月 11 日，公司中电工程西北院与 Masdar 在阿布扎比签约阿 塞拜疆 Bilasuvar（比利亚苏瓦尔）445MW、Banka（班卡）315MW 光伏电站 EPC 项目。 点评： 国内外需求旺盛，公司能源订单内外开花。3 月 11 日，中国能建签约阿塞拜疆 两大光伏项目 EPC 合同，这是公司在阿塞拜疆市场首次以 EPC 总承包模式承建 的大型光伏电站项目，Bilasuvar 项目也是阿塞拜疆在建最大光伏项目。阿塞拜 疆 23 年可再生能源发电量占比为 20.3%，计划到 2030 年提高至 30%；此外， 基于对能源安全保障和经济转型的考量，目前众多油气资源大国开始加力推进新 能源建设，海外能源工程需求旺盛，公司未来有望凭借强大的能源工程建设能力 持续获得海外能源订单。国内能源市场方面，2 月 9 日国家发改委与能源局联合 印发《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》(以 下简称"136 号文")，电价政策新老划断下掀起抢 ...