Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on CITICS-A and CICC-H, while Hundsun also receives a Buy rating. East Money is rated as Sell [2][24][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in A-share average daily trading volume (ADTV), which has surged to Rmb 1.9 trillion, driven by AI and ETF trading [6][10]. - The forecast for full-year 2025 ADTV growth has been raised from 15% to 22% year-on-year, reflecting strong market momentum [10]. - The average year-to-date return for the three brokers covered is -3% for A-shares and +6% for H-shares, indicating potential upside [16][13]. Summary by Sections Brokers Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for brokers CICC, CITICS, and GFS have been adjusted, with expected average year-on-year revenue/profit growth of 22%/30% in 4Q24 and 14%/18% in 2025E [2][20]. - Target prices for A/H shares have been adjusted by an average of 11%/13% based on new estimates [2][24]. Market Drivers - The AI theme is expected to attract up to US$ 200 billion of net capital inflows into the Chinese market over the next 12 months, significantly boosting trading volumes [6][8]. - The proportion of ETFs in market trading volume has increased from 7% in 2022 to 15% currently, contributing to the rise in ADTV [8][9]. Company-Specific Insights - CITICS is expected to benefit more directly from the ADTV increase due to its higher retail business mix, with a new A-share target price of Rmb 34.15 [2][28]. - CICC is projected to see faster earnings growth due to its higher market elasticity, with a new H-share target price of HK$ 16.47 [2][29]. - Hundsun is anticipated to benefit from increased broker capital expenditures starting from 2H25, with a new target price of Rmb 36.63 [2][35]. - East Money's growth outlook is weak due to diluted fees from increased ETF trading, leading to a Sell rating and a new target price of Rmb 12.51 [2][33].

摘要 Q&A 近期 T 价格为何上涨？ 近期 T 价格的上涨主要受到三重利好因素的推动：出口改善、内需增长以及进 口矿的收缩。首先，出口方面，自去年（2024 年）10 月 30 日中国海关恢复氧 化锑的出口编码以来，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续申请出口许可证，氧化锑 的出口逐步改善。根据海关数据，去年 11 月和 12 月我国分别出口氧化锑 776 吨和 1,571 吨，12 月环比增长 102%，恢复到管制前三年平均水平的 41%左右。 其次，内需方面，在阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装双重推动下需求增加。根据测 算，2023 年 T 下游消费结构中阻燃剂占比 50%，光伏玻璃占比 24%。以旧换新 • 中国氧化锑出口逐步改善，去年 12 月出口量环比增长 102%，恢复至管制 前三年平均水平的 41%左右，主要受益于企业积极申请出口许可证。 • 国内阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装推动氧化锑需求增加。阻燃剂占下游消费 50%，光伏玻璃占 24%。以旧换新政策和新能源项目并网截止日期前加速排 产，均利好需求。 • 进口矿收缩导致国内冶炼产量受限。去年 12 月铁矿进口环比减少 63%，内 外盘价差高企抬升进口成本，抑制国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly in technology and construction, with a focus on government support and policy measures to stimulate growth [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The government has set a growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with a CPI target of around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic management [2]. - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with an increase in the budget and local government special bonds, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Emphasis on new productivity represented by AI and other emerging technologies, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and promoting large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies [3][6][30]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted, with stable global market shares and an increase in the share of intermediate goods, indicating continued global reliance on China [7]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, with measures to attract long-term funds into the market, including increased allocations from insurance and public funds [10][19]. - The report outlines specific measures for the real estate sector, including demand stimulation and supply adjustments, to support market stabilization [23][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Policies - The government aims for a 5% growth target and a 2% CPI target, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive, including a budget increase to 1.6 trillion yuan and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including issuing special bonds to support local governments and expanding the use of special loans [5][21][23]. Emerging Industries - The focus is on AI, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G as key areas for future growth, with government support for large-scale applications of new technologies [6][30]. Export Resilience - Despite global supply chain disruptions, Chinese exports have shown resilience, maintaining stable market shares and increasing the share of intermediate goods [7]. Capital Market Reforms - The report discusses measures to deepen capital market reforms, including attracting long-term funds and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [10][19]. Construction and Building Materials - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which is expected to improve the order and payment situation for construction enterprises [15][16]. Technology and Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and related fields, and emphasizes the need for core technology self-reliance [30][32].

Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 March 2025 Humanoid Robot Expert Call Takeaways (Part II): Commercialization is closer than you think We hosted an expert call today (Mar. 4) with Dr. Nicholas Nadeau, a distinguished figure in the fields of AI and robotics. Dr. Nadeau, with his extensive experience as a former CTO and founder in high-impact tech sectors, has been at the forefront of developing humanoid robots and integrating AI into practical applications. His tenure as CTO of 1X (formerly Halodi Robotics) s ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the high-end equipment sector, particularly focusing on specific companies and segments that are expected to benefit from market trends and technological advancements [2]. Core Insights - The mechanical sector is experiencing significant trends influenced by market conditions and economic changes, with a focus on smart manufacturing and emerging technologies [3]. - Companies like Bafang and Jiechang are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their low valuations and underestimated growth prospects [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain dynamics and the recovery of demand in various segments, including electric bicycles and composite materials [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Electric Assist Bicycle Industry - The inventory cycle in the electric assist bicycle industry is nearing its end, with Bafang expected to see significant revenue growth in 2025 and 2026 due to increased demand from both new and existing customers [4][5]. Composite Material Industry - The industrialization of composite materials is accelerating, with major manufacturers placing significant orders. Capacity utilization is expected to reach full capacity by the second half of 2025, presenting investment opportunities in equipment and material companies [4][6]. Robotics and Smart Manufacturing - Ailite's strategic shift towards humanoid robot ecosystem development is noted, with a focus on its progress in smart manufacturing and the potential for a second growth curve [4][7]. - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to companies involved in humanoid robotics, particularly Ailite, as it navigates its strategic adjustments [8]. Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a flat upward cycle, with state-owned enterprises improving profitability through reforms. Companies like LiuGong are expected to benefit from these changes [4][21][24]. - The demand for engineering machinery is influenced by the real estate cycle, with expectations of a gradual recovery in demand [22]. Military Industry - The military sector is transitioning towards a focus on delivery assurance, with increased production tasks in areas such as aviation and missiles. The demand for materials is expected to grow significantly [4][27][29]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in the military sector, particularly in unmanned and intelligent systems, as key areas for future investment [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-end equipment manufacturing with strong competitive positions and high barriers to entry, such as Yingjian Technology and Feilihua [30]. - Short-term investment strategies should target companies in the aerospace supply chain that are expected to show early recovery in demand and financial performance [30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for stocks over commodities and bonds, suggesting a preference for equities in the current market environment [5]. Core Insights - Recent market style rotation has shifted towards small-cap and growth styles, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [3]. - The industry rotation model recommends sectors such as steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, based on liquidity and research performance [4]. - Active quantitative stock selection strategies have shown varied performance, with small-cap strategies outperforming others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Style Rotation - The current market style is leaning towards small-cap growth, with macro indicators slightly favoring small caps and market sentiment benefiting growth styles [3]. - Key drivers include a decline in new investor numbers and macroeconomic indicators [3]. Recommended Industries - The recommended sectors for March include steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, selected based on an optimized industry rotation model [4]. - Media, integrated communications, and pharmaceuticals excel in liquidity, while steel scores high in research performance [4]. Asset Allocation Views - The report suggests a hierarchy of asset allocation: stocks are preferred over commodities, which in turn are preferred over bonds [5]. - The overall sentiment towards stocks is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic indicators, although caution is advised due to potential resistance in major indices [5]. Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategies - The small-cap digging strategy has shown the best performance, with a 9.9% return in February, significantly outperforming small-cap indices [6]. - The investment behavior quality evaluation strategy has also performed well, yielding a 9.9% return in February and over 10% year-to-date [7][8]. Growth Strategy Performance - The ChatGPTBoost growth selection strategy yielded a 4.5% return in February, with a slight excess return over equity fund indices [9]. - The strategy focuses on identifying stocks with improving profitability and sustainable ROE [9]. Future Strategy Recommendations - Future recommendations emphasize the high valuation and market participation of small-cap and growth strategies, suggesting continued focus on these areas [11]. - Specific strategies to watch include small-cap digging and XGBoost for growth selection [11].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight allocation to leading companies in the chemical industry at this time [1] Core Viewpoints - The recovery of the real estate market is significantly supporting the demand for chemical materials, particularly in new and second-hand home renovations, with a notable increase in transaction volumes in major cities [3][4] - Anticipated policy measures from the upcoming Two Sessions are expected to benefit the chemical industry, particularly in refining and ethylene sectors, by optimizing industrial layout and increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4] - The cost pressures on chemical companies have substantially eased due to a significant decline in coal prices and oil prices, which enhances profitability [4] - The valuation of leading chemical stocks is at historical lows, with the price-to-book ratio of CITIC's segmented chemical leaders at only 2.03 times, indicating potential for value re-evaluation [5] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the petrochemical industry, with capital expenditures declining and new capacity releases concluding, leading to a gradual improvement in industry conditions [6] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a 3% year-on-year increase in transaction volume across 30 major cities and a 45% increase in second-hand home transactions in key cities, which supports chemical demand [3][4] Policy Expectations - The upcoming Two Sessions may introduce favorable policies for the chemical industry, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing high-end production [3][4] Cost Pressure Relief - Recent declines in coal prices (down 200-300 RMB/ton) and oil prices (around $70/barrel) have significantly reduced cost pressures for major chemical companies, improving their profitability [4] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-book ratio for leading chemical stocks is at a low historical level, suggesting a disconnect between stock prices and fundamental improvements, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [5] Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a recovery phase post-2025, following a three-year down cycle, with capital expenditures decreasing and new capacity reaching its peak [6] Company-Specific Developments - Wanhua Chemical is facing challenges but has strong fundamentals in its MBIA business, with prices for key products at high levels, indicating potential for profit growth [7][8] - Hualu Hengsheng's urea business is performing well with over 3 million tons of capacity and improving profitability despite price fluctuations [12] - Longbai Group is expected to see improved profitability due to limited global titanium ore supply and increased production capacity [21] - Baofeng Energy is benefiting from lower coal prices, leading to significant profit growth in its coal-to-olefins projects [22]

Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious outlook for the electricity sector in 2025, indicating a potential weakening compared to 2024, with a focus on both pressures and opportunities in the market [1][4]. Core Insights - The electricity sector is expected to face pressures from a slowdown in electricity demand growth, projected at 5.5% to 6% for 2025, down from a compound annual growth rate of 7% in previous years [2][3]. - The report highlights three main opportunities within the sector: strong policy support for new energy, stricter market capitalization management for state-owned enterprises, and the potential for long-term investments in quality assets during market corrections [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Overview - The report discusses the overall electricity market dynamics, noting that the installed capacity growth has significantly outpaced electricity demand growth from 2021 to 2024, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance [2][3]. - A comprehensive decline in electricity prices has been observed, particularly affecting thermal power, which has implications for the revenue of electricity companies in 2025 [3][4]. New Energy Opportunities - The report emphasizes the ongoing government support for the new energy sector, suggesting that policies will continue to evolve towards high-quality development rather than rapid expansion [6][7]. - The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects is expected to stabilize profitability and encourage investment in the sector [7][8]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The report identifies a shift in market sentiment, with increased risk appetite among investors, which may lead to reduced demand for defensive assets like electricity stocks [4][5]. - It suggests that investors should focus on undervalued stocks in the renewable energy sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals and potential for recovery as policies are implemented [9][10]. Long-term Growth Potential - The report highlights the potential for offshore wind energy as a promising investment area, with expectations for significant project approvals and stable returns [10][11]. - It also discusses the importance of nuclear power in the long-term energy mix, projecting stable growth and profitability for leading nuclear companies [16][17]. Solar Energy Insights - The solar energy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with projections for growth in installations despite potential short-term fluctuations [19][20]. - The report notes that technological advancements and competitive dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the solar market [27][28]. Supply Chain and Production Trends - The report indicates that supply chain dynamics are improving, with a focus on maintaining production levels amid market fluctuations [24][25]. - It also highlights the importance of new technologies in enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs in the solar sector [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, particularly highlighting a structural bull market driven by sentiment and expectations, with a technical bull market defined by a price increase exceeding 20% [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets, with significant attention on foreign capital flows and their potential impact on market dynamics [2][22]. - It identifies three key characteristics of the current market: sentiment-driven, expectation-driven, and structurally focused, suggesting that the market is heavily influenced by a few leading technology stocks [4][6][19]. - The report also discusses the importance of understanding the structural nature of the market, where only a small percentage of stocks are outperforming the index, indicating a narrow base for the market rally [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index reaching new highs, particularly driven by technology stocks [2][3]. - Recent fluctuations in capital flows, including significant inflows and subsequent outflows, reflect investor sentiment and market volatility [3][8]. Foreign Capital Dynamics - Foreign capital has been increasingly active, with notable inflows observed, particularly in the technology sector, suggesting a potential for further investment [9][10]. - The report estimates that foreign capital allocation to Chinese stocks is currently low, indicating substantial room for growth if conditions improve [12][13]. Structural Market Characteristics - The report highlights that the current market is characterized by a structural bull market, where a limited number of stocks are driving the overall index performance [5][6]. - It notes that understanding the dynamics of these leading stocks is crucial for investors aiming to outperform the market [6][19]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with clear structural trends, particularly technology, while being cautious of market sentiment fluctuations [15][21]. - The report suggests a balanced approach, advocating for strategic entry during market dips and careful monitoring of market conditions [15][21].

Investment Ratings - Sanhua is rated as Buy, LeaderDrive and Moons' Electric are rated Neutral, and Best Precision is downgraded to Neutral from Buy [2][4][5][20]. Core Insights - The report updates market share expectations for key humanoid robot supply chain stocks, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for Sanhua, while indicating increased competition for Best Precision [1][4]. - Sanhua is expected to achieve a market share of 70% in the high-spec humanoid robot actuator assembly business by 2025E-30E, up from a previous estimate of 50% [2]. - LeaderDrive's net income forecasts for 2024E-30E have been revised up by up to 21% due to its entry into the PRS business, projecting a 5% global market share [4]. - Best Precision's long-term global PRS market share forecast has been revised down to 10% from 15% due to anticipated competition [4][21]. - Moons' Electric is expected to see an 8% increase in net income forecasts for 2024E-30E, driven by potential upgrades in content value [5]. Company Summaries Sanhua - Sanhua is a leader in HVAC control and thermal management components, with a strong growth potential in the auto/EV sector [33]. - The 12-month target price for Sanhua is set at Rmb36.5, based on a 21x 2030E P/E [34]. LeaderDrive - LeaderDrive is recognized as a domestic leader in China's harmonic reduction gear market, with a focus on expanding its applications [41]. - The 12-month target price for LeaderDrive is Rmb134.6, based on a 45x 2030E P/E [42]. Best Precision - Best Precision aims to become a competitive supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, with a projected 10% global market share starting in 2027E [37]. - The 12-month target price for Best Precision is Rmb28.2, based on a 32x 2030E P/E [38]. Moons' Electric - Moons' Electric is positioned to become a key player in the humanoid robot coreless motor supply chain, with expectations for increased revenues from coreless motor applications [45]. - The 12-month target price for Moons' Electric is Rmb53.3, based on a 37x 2030E P/E [46].