证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饰品 周大生（002867） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：持续高分 红，期待 25 年业绩逐季修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16,290 | 13,891 | 15,225 | 16,739 | 18,379 | | 同比（%） | 46.52 | (14.73) | 9.60 | 9.95 | 9.79 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,316 | 1,010 | 1,112 | 1,216 | 1,307 | | 同比（%） | 20.67 | (23.25) | 10.07 | 9.33 | 7.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 10.85 | 14.14 | 12.84 | 11.75 | 10.93 | [Table_T ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 伟星股份（002003） 证券研究报告 关注内需景气及关税进展 公司发布 25 年一季报 营收 10 亿，同比+22%，归母净利润 1 亿，同比+29%，扣非归母净利润 1 亿，同比+30%； 毛利率 39%，同比+1pct，归母净利率 10%，同比+1pct； 投资活动产生的现金流量净额同比+31%，主因购建固定资产、无形资产和 其他长期资产支付的现金减少。 积极应对关税变化 从产品交付的角度看，公司主要根据品牌服饰企业的要求将产品直接交付 给客户自有或其指定的成衣加工等企业，因而公司国际业务的出口区域基 本集中在孟加拉、越南等国际服装加工出口较多的国家或地区，直接出口 到欧美源头国家的业务量非常低。因此，终端消费国或区域调整成衣等商 品的关税对公司业务的直接影响有限。 公司将加强与下游品牌服饰客户及成衣加工企业的交流，积极商讨并评估 相关影响；另一方面，公司坚定推进国际化战略，持续做好与源头品牌的 对接与开发工作，努力提升市场份额，实现稳健发展。 在产能规划上，在贸易环境和国际客户需求明朗之前，公司能够对国内外 工业园产能进行合理的调配，有效发挥公司快速反应和产品运输半径大的 优势 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - The company is advancing a strategy that combines "light and heavy asset operations with diversified business layout" [4] - The increase in self-owned power station capacity has driven a 9.25% year-on-year revenue growth for 2024, despite a 15.39% decline in net profit due to increased curtailment rates in the photovoltaic industry and reduced investment income [2][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a 43% year-on-year revenue increase, with a net loss of 0.35 billion yuan, showing significant improvement compared to the previous year's loss [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.775 billion yuan, up 9.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 324 million yuan, down 15.39% [6] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 547 million, 583 million, and 606 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 69%, 7%, and 4% [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.09 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.51 [6][13] Business Strategy and Developments - The company is focusing on expanding its self-owned power station capacity, which is expected to reach approximately 6448 MW by the end of 2024, a 20% increase [2] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major industry players such as Alibaba Cloud, Tencent, JD.com, and SF Express [3] - The company is actively pursuing a "rolling development" model for light asset operations and diversifying its business layout [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 earnings continue to be under pressure, with total revenue of 256.76 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year [8] - Despite the revenue decline, cash flow has improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -38.95 billion yuan, which is a reduction in outflow by 7.65 billion yuan year-on-year [8] - New contract signings decreased by 10.5% year-on-year to 492.8 billion yuan, but the company saw significant growth in green and environmental contracts, which increased by 77.1% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to benefit from increased fiscal policy support and improved financing conditions, which will gradually manifest in investment and physical volume [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was 256.76 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.01%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [8] Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow improved, with a net cash flow of -38.95 billion yuan, a reduction in outflow by 7.65 billion yuan year-on-year [8] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's interest-bearing debt was 541.1 billion yuan, an increase of 141.6 billion yuan year-on-year, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 77.6%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [8] Order Book and Market Outlook - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 totaled 492.8 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in green and environmental contracts [8] - The company’s backlog of uncompleted contracts was 7.8613 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.5% year-on-year, indicating strong order visibility [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.9 billion yuan in 2025, 22.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 22.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 4.8, 4.7, and 4.6 times [8]

公 司 研 究 华福证券 资产端：收益率为 3.21%，同比下降 44bp。其中，同业存放利率、 贷款利率、金融投资利率分别同比下行 56bp、54bp、24bp。 负债端：成本率为 1.39%，同比下降 36bp，其中，同业拆入利率、 存款利率分别同比下降 50bp、34bp。 零售、对公贷款均同比少增 招商银行（600036.SH） 其他非息压制业绩表现——2025 一季报点评 投资要点： 受其他非息高基数压制，业绩有所下滑 公 司 财 报 点 评 营收增速、利润增速均较 2024 年有所下降。2025Q1，营收、归母 净利润增速分别为-3.1%、-2.1%，分别较 2024 年下降 2.6pct、3.3pct。 主要受一季度利率上升的影响，债券和基金投资的公允价值下降， 2025Q1 其他非息收入较去年同期下降 22.2%。 净息差降幅明显收窄，净利息收入实现正增长 2025Q1，净利息收入首次扭转负增长趋势实现正增长，同比增速 为 1.9%，主要受益于净息差降幅收窄。一季度，净息差为 1.91%，同 比 2024Q1 降幅为 11bp，较 2024 年降幅已明显收窄（17bp）；环比 2024 年净息 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 390 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.16%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 60 million yuan, up 5.60% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on the growth of its digital energy segment, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 1216%, with revenue reaching 10.01 million yuan in Q1 2025 [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a cyclical recovery and internal cost reduction, with projected revenues of 2.11 billion yuan, 2.52 billion yuan, and 3.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue from variable frequency drives of 230 million yuan (up 18% year-on-year) and servo systems revenue of 130 million yuan (up 10% year-on-year) [4]. - The company’s overseas revenue reached 99 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 29% increase year-on-year, while domestic revenue was 280 million yuan, up 15% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s R&D investment in Q1 2025 was 50 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 330 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 480 million yuan respectively [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.55 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 2.25 yuan respectively [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33, 27, and 22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7].

恢复投资拿地，多元经营稳健 ——金地集团（600383.SH）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报。 1）2024 年，公司实现营业收入 753.4 亿元，同比下降 23.22%（其中房地产开 发 600.3 亿元，同比下降 29.8%）；归母净利润亏损 61.2 亿元。 2025 年 5 月 3 日 2）2025 年一季度，公司实现营业收入 59.7 亿元，同比下降 14.32%；归母净 利润亏损 6.58 亿元。 点评：跨越公开债务高峰，恢复投资拿地；短期销售压力仍存，多元经营稳健。 公司研究 跨越公开债务高峰，恢复投资拿地：1）2024 年公司坚持以现金流为核心的经 营策略，坚守财务安全底线，按时足额偿付共约 200 亿元公开市场到期债务； 截至 2024 年底有息负债余额 735 亿元，其中 96.30%为银行借款，债务融资加 权平均成本为 4.05%，较上一年度下降 31 个 BP；扣除合同负债后的资产负债 率为 59.7%，较上年降低 1.6 个百分点，净负债率为 49.1%。2）恢复投资拿地， 2025 年一季度，公司重启土地投资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price expected to yield over 20% relative return within six months [7][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in banquet demand, leading to a positive impact on same-store sales and profit elasticity [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.52 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, but a significant decline in net profit by 67.1% to 100 million yuan due to various factors including the absence of one-time compensation income from store relocation and losses from new stores [1][2]. - The company has a strong focus on expanding its restaurant and accommodation services, with plans to open new locations and upgrade existing ones, alongside a significant growth in its food business [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue from restaurant and accommodation services to reach 2.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, while food business revenue is projected at 310 million yuan, a substantial growth of 85.5% [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 31.05% [2]. - The financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate a recovery in net profit, with estimates of 210 million yuan, 331 million yuan, and 441 million yuan respectively, reflecting a significant rebound from the 2024 figures [4][6]. Business Strategy and Outlook - The company aims to open 3-5 new restaurants and upgrade 20 existing ones in 2025, while also expanding its hotel operations and food business, particularly in the East China market [4]. - The company is focusing on the banquet dining segment, which is expected to maintain stable profitability due to its essential nature and differentiated advantages in standardization and cost-effectiveness [4]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26, 17, and 13 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings recover [4][6]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 5.56 billion yuan, with a current price of 21.37 yuan per share [8].

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 嘉曼服饰（301276） 证券研究报告 成人装有望提升整体毛利率 公司发布 24 年报和 25 年一季报 25Q1：营收 3 亿，同比+3%；归母净利润 0.4 亿，同比-16%；扣非归母净 利润 0.4 亿，同比-15%； 24Q4：营收 4 亿，同比-5%；归母净利润 0.7 亿，同比+28%；扣非归母净 利润 0.6 亿，同比+23%； 24A：营收 11 亿，同比-5%；归母净利润 1.7 亿，同比-5%；扣非归母净利 润 1.3 亿，同比+5%。 此外，公司拟每 10 股派发现金股利人民币 7.2 元（含税），同时每 10 股转 增 2 股，派息率为 45%。 童装和电商拖累营收，成人装毛利率明显高于童装 分产品，1）24 年童装营收 10 亿，同比-17%，毛利率 61%，同比+1pct。 2）成人装营收 1 亿，于 24 年年中完成并表，毛利率 80%，明显高于童装 毛利率。 3）其他营收 0.3 亿，或为收购品牌的授权费收入。 分渠道，1）24 年直营营收 3 亿，同比+14%，毛利率 66%，同比+3pct。门 店 176 家，净增 11 家，经营满 1 年的门店 ...

业绩稳健高分红，关注并购新潮进展 分众传媒 24 年&25Q1 业绩点评 核心观点 【事件】公司披露 24 年财报和 25 年一季报：24Q4 实现营业收入 30 亿元(yoy-7.1%)， 归母净利润 11.9 亿元(yoy-3.1%)，扣非归母净利润 11.3 亿元(yoy+0.9%)；24 全年实现 营业收入 123 亿元(yoy+3%)，归母净利润 51.6 亿元(yoy+6.8%)，扣非归母净利润 46.7%(yoy+6.7%)。25Q1 实现营业收入 28.6 亿元(yoy+4.7%)，归母净利润 11.4 亿元 (yoy+9.1%)，扣非归母净利润 9.9 亿元(yoy+4.6%)。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 2.3 元 (含税)，合计派发 48 亿元，股利支付率达 92%，对应股息率为 4.69%。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润为 54.5/57.8/61.6 亿元（25-26 年前值为 56.6/60.4 亿元），对应 EPS 为 0.38/0.40/0.43 元。参考公司历史估值 band，采用 过去 3 年平均，给予 25 年 22 倍 PE，目标价 ...