证券研究报告 舍得酒业 (600702 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 舍得酒业：渠道减负，保持定力 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 6 月 4 日舍得酒业出席我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司对近期经 营情况、未来发展和行业方向分享观点，提出公司自 24 年以来重点关注渠 道健康，坚守长期主义，库存去化取得阶段性成效，期待公司触底破局。 舍之道、T68 等表现出色，库存去化取得阶段性成效 公司以长期健康稳健发展为主。从近期经营看，公司 Q1 业绩有所承压，但 五一期间品味舍得动销保持平稳，现阶段品味舍得重点聚焦升学宴；大众价 位舍之道、沱牌 T68 等产品实现增长，针对下沉市场争取增量。从渠道结 构看，截至 25Q1 大商占比依然较高，渠道库存良性的经销商数量过半（良 性库存标准 2-3 个月备货）。从库存表现看，从去年开始加大库存去化力度， 我们预计今年库存压力或相对较小；同时公司 25 年依然坚持去库存+市场 跟踪，针对性提高渠道健康程度。 费用端表现趋于稳定， ...

证券研究报告 孩子王 (301078 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 加盟店快速推进，首款 AI 玩具落地 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 可选消费 | 6 月 5 日孩子王出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司表示母婴 零售业务线下直营同店稳健增长、加盟门店有序拓展，直播电商业务有望于 6 月开启直播；同时，AI 产品储备丰富，首款 AI 智能陪伴玩偶已开启预售。 母婴零售：线下直营稳增、加盟快速推进，直播电商有望贡献增量 分渠道看，1）线下：我们预计 4-5 月公司同店销售同比增速约 10%。同时， 公司自 2024 年开始发展下沉市场精选店加盟模式，截至 2025 年 3 月，精 选加盟店已开业 30 家，另有超 100 家正在在建、筹建过程中；公司目标 2025 年开设 500 家加盟店。2）线上：除原本的线上 DTC 模式以外，公司与辛 选合作成立合资公司杭州链启未来，开展新家庭电商直播零售业务，目前正 有序推进供应链选品、内容运营、直播达人矩阵建设等，公司计划于 ...

证券研究报告 顺丰控股 (6936 HK/002352 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 精益经营带来量、利、效同增 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 仓储物流 | 6 月 4 日顺丰控股出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司表示： 1）国内：激活经营推动时效件高增，运营模式变革与网络优化推动效率提 升、成本节降，进而回馈前端客户。25 年将继续推进多网融通、AI 赋能与 中转场无人化等降本举措；2）国际：公司将持续服务中国制造业出海，转 型国际综合物流龙头。 4 月件量与收入高增，量价均衡 4 月，顺丰延续开年以来的"量本利正循环"趋势，件量持续加速增长（25 年 1-2 月/3 月/4 月：同比+18.7/+25.4/+30.0%），件均价降幅持续扩大（25 年 1-2 月/3 月/4 月：同比-9.6/-10.5/-13.9%），且量价较为均衡，4 月速运 物流收入增速（同比+11.8%）快于行业（同比+10.8%）、一季度（同比 +7.2%）。收入与件量均高增主 ...

证券研究报告 中国巨石 (600176 CH) | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 玻璃 | 6 月 5 日中国巨石出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司介绍了 25Q1 的经营情况及全年经营展望，同时就行业发展趋势及新产品和新技术 进行了讨论。我们看好公司产能持续扩张巩固规模优势，风电纱等产品需求 增长及收入占比提升有望带动公司盈利能力增强，维持"买入"。 玻纤复价逐步落地，盈利能力有望延续改善 据卓创资讯，25 年前 5 月缠绕直接纱/SMC 合股纱/G75 电子纱均价同比分 别+15%/+23%/+18%，玻纤价格同比延续改善。25Q1 公司毛利率/归母净 利率 30.5%/16.3%，同比+10.4/+5.9pct，毛利率呈逐季度改善趋势，25Q1 以来公司针对风电纱、热塑纱等产品复价陆续落地，同时海外市场复价稳步 推进，预计 25Q2 公司盈利能力有望延续同比提升。 预计 25H2 新增供给压力趋缓，公司产能规模和布局优势显著 公司九江二期两条 10 万吨产线分别于 25 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 82.00 [8][9]. Core Views - The company expects continued growth in the domestic engineering machinery market in 2025, with global layout providing new opportunities due to supply chain disruptions from trade tensions [1]. - The company's excavator product output remains robust, with a recovery cycle in the global excavator market, particularly in Europe [2]. - Supply chain disruptions from trade tensions are seen as opportunities for the company to increase its market penetration globally [3]. - The penetration rate of planetary roller screw solutions is expected to increase as prices decrease, supported by the company's investment in linear actuator projects [4]. - The company's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 27.51 billion, RMB 32.27 billion, and RMB 37.72 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.05, RMB 2.41, and RMB 2.81 [5]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The domestic excavator market in China sold 83,514 units from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with domestic sales up 31.9% [2]. - The company anticipates sustained high growth rates in excavator sales despite seasonal fluctuations [2]. Global Strategy - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with a factory in Mexico starting production in June 2025, which is expected to reduce costs for North American customers [3]. - The Indonesian production capacity is also set to come online, allowing the company to meet local demand even amid potential trade tensions [3]. Product Development - The company has invested RMB 1.4 billion in developing linear actuator projects, with expectations of improved cost efficiency and product penetration in the market [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from RMB 8.985 billion in 2023 to RMB 14.176 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.59% [7]. - The projected net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with net profit increasing from RMB 2.499 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.772 billion in 2027 [7].

证券研究报告 环保 | 环境治理 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 06 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | 06 | 04 | 日 | | | | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 21.79 | | | | | | | 一 年 内 最 | 高 | | | | 24.00/13.62 | | 最 | 低 | / | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 12,281.79 | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 81.02 [8][19]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its globalization strategy, highlighted by the acquisition of Czech IMI, which will serve as a strategic foothold in Europe [3][13]. - The company has successfully secured new orders from major global clients such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Ford, indicating strong demand for its new products and technologies [2][14]. - The company aims to enhance its overseas production capabilities and expand its market share in the automotive electronics sector [3][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating is maintained as "Buy" with a target price set at RMB 81.02, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [8][19]. Globalization Strategy - The company is focusing on strengthening its existing automotive electronic products while developing new domain control products. The recent acquisition of Czech IMI is a key part of this strategy, aimed at enhancing overseas production capabilities [3][13]. - The company has achieved significant results in promoting new products and technologies to European and American clients, with a notable increase in overseas sales [2][14]. Acquisition of Czech IMI - The company announced the acquisition of 100% of Czech IMI for EUR 9.426 million, which will enhance its international production layout and support the ramp-up of global orders [3][16]. - This acquisition is expected to allow the company to produce for global platform clients, including Volkswagen, Ford, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, starting with lighting control products [3][17]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 78.3 billion, RMB 101.5 billion, and RMB 125.6 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of RMB 10.5 billion, RMB 14.38 billion, and RMB 18.37 billion respectively [5][19]. - The report maintains a PE target of 31 times for 2025, indicating a strong outlook for profitability [5][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 42.96 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the resilience of the retail market due to the expansion of home decoration subsidies and the improving channel structure, leading to a potential recovery in profit margins and operational flexibility [1]. - The "Immediate Living" and "Beautiful Countryside" initiatives are anticipated to accelerate the company's presence in the stock renovation and third- and fourth-tier markets, with a projected demand for stock renovation of approximately 11 to 12 million units per year from 2024 to 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 5% [2]. - The company is undergoing a channel transformation towards engineering distribution, maintaining a leading market share despite a decline in direct sales revenue, which is expected to stabilize in the coming years [3]. - The retail sales of construction and decoration materials reached RMB 53 billion in the first four months of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with a significant monthly increase of 9.7% in April [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are RMB 651.4 million, RMB 847.05 million, and RMB 1.09 billion respectively, indicating a CAGR of 48.7% [5]. - The company is assigned a PEG ratio of 0.75x for 2025, with a target price based on a PEG of 1.0x, reflecting the expected growth in the "Immediate Living" business and stable market share in engineering [5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 13.203 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.07% [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to capture growth opportunities in the renovation market, with its brand strength gradually being validated against competitors like Nippon Paint [2]. - The engineering business is expected to maintain its leading market share while reducing impairment risks, with accounts receivable turnover improving to 3.6 in 2024 [3]. Operational Insights - The company is actively managing costs and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for continued profit elasticity due to effective expense control measures [4]. - The average price of titanium dioxide, a key raw material, has decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, which may limit further price declines in products [4].

证券研究报告 杰克股份 (603337 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 关税影响可控，期待新品发力 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 06 日│中国内地 | 专用设备 | 6 月 4-5 日，杰克股份出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司沟 通了关税对于缝纫机景气度的影响，认为短期影响有限，中长期会带动全球 服装制造业产业转移、从而提振缝纫机新机需求。服装制造业面临招工难困 境，未来公司将持续推广 AI 智能在服装制造的应用，推出 AI 缝纫机、人形 机器人等新产品助力下游降本增效。我们看好公司持续的产品创新对于盈利 能力的提升，维持"买入"评级。 关税影响：需求或短空长多，带来市占率提升机会 短期看，由于美国关税政策制定的不确定性，部分下游客户或对扩产持观望 态度。而中长期看，关税的不确定性将进一步加速全球服装供应链的分散化， 促使部分服装制造业向低关税风险国家进行转移，从而拉动对于新机的采购 需求，同时带来龙头企业进一步发挥产品和渠道优势、市占率提升机会。 4 月工缝维持快速增长，低关税风险地区接 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, with a target price of 15.5 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company held an investor communication meeting on June 5, 2025, where management addressed strategic planning, product planning, and reform progress, providing guidance for investors [2]. - Yanjing Beer is focusing on the U8 product line, which has shown strong sales momentum, achieving over 400,000 tons in the first five months of 2025, representing a 45% completion of the annual target [7]. - The company is committed to optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency through digital systems and cost management reforms, which are expected to release profit elasticity [7]. - The management aims to catch up with leading companies in the industry during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing innovation and operational improvements [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 14,667 million CNY in 2024 to 15,439 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 1,056 million CNY in 2024 to 1,451 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.4% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.37 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [3]. Market Performance - The company has shown a strong performance compared to the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months, indicating a positive market sentiment towards Yanjing Beer [6].