Core Insights - The report recommends investment directions driven by rising crude oil and natural gas prices, as well as geopolitical factors, particularly following military actions in the Middle East that have disrupted energy supplies [1][16] - The report highlights the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on global energy markets, with significant price increases in European natural gas and potential profit recovery opportunities for domestic chemical sectors [1][16] Supply Side - Since June 2025, fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry has turned negative, with capital expenditures in basic chemicals and most sub-sectors declining for several consecutive quarters, indicating the end of the industry expansion cycle [2][17] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, with industries such as pesticides, petrochemicals, and organic silicon already following suit [2][17] - Approval for new chemical production capacity is expected to tighten, accelerating the exit of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting small-scale backward production capacities [2][17] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal policy stimulus [2][17] - Emerging demand from industries such as renewable energy and AI continues to drive growth in key chemicals and materials [2][17] - China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market, and with the dual drivers of overseas capacity reduction and domestic demand recovery, Chinese chemical companies are expected to continue increasing their global market share [2][17] Macro and Chemical Product Prices - In February 2026, China's comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, indicating a slight decline, with manufacturing PMI at 49.0% [3][18] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported 4027 points, a 2% decrease month-on-month, indicating structural differentiation in chemical prices [3][18] - International oil prices have significantly increased due to geopolitical tensions, with WTI and Brent crude futures prices rising by 11.4% and 12.3% respectively by March 4, 2026 [3][18] Key Industry Research - Oil and Gas: February oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent averaging $69.4 per barrel and WTI at $64.4 per barrel, reflecting a significant increase [3][23] - Fluorochemicals: The industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the tight supply-demand balance and rising prices of mainstream refrigerants [3][19] - Phosphate Chemicals: The demand for phosphate rock is expected to increase due to energy storage applications, reinforcing its scarcity and maintaining high prices [3][19] - Potash: The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly and resource scarcity, with prices expected to recover moderately [3][19] Investment Portfolio - Recommended companies include China National Petroleum Corporation, CNOOC, Yara International, Dongyue Group, New Chemical Materials, and Chuanheng Co., which are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [3][22]

液冷行业深度报告：数据中心带动液冷需求增长，关注上 游核心冷媒材料 20260304 摘要 芯片功率密度飙升驱动散热技术代际演进，AI 计算中心装机量预计从 2024 年 7GW 增至 2028 年 80GW，水冷/液冷已成确定性必选项。 冷板式液冷为当前主流，单相方案以去离子水为主，双相/全液冷方案转 向 R32、R134a 等含氟制冷剂以应对更高解热需求。 浸没式液冷呈现硅油与氟化液双路径竞争：硅油成本仅为氟化液 1/8- 1/10，改性后性能达其 70%，具备极高性价比优势。 氟化液被视为终极方案，全氟胺/全氟烷烃因高稳定性与低介电常数占优， 国内厂商正通过化学合成法突破海外电解法专利壁垒。 全氟聚醚作为可降解替代材料，其成本受限于 K 型/Y 型合成收率（50% 左右）及高分子量副产物的航空领域消化能力。 产业催化剂：英伟达新架构对冷却方案迭代极快，需重点跟踪氟化液率 先导入冷板式体系等颠覆性技术路径变化。 制冷系统在数据中心能效管理中扮演什么角色，PUE 与设备可靠性之间如何权 衡？ Q&A 数据中心液冷需求增长的核心背景是什么，芯片功率与散热路径经历了哪些阶 段性变化？ 数据中心液冷需求的核心驱动 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业重大事项点评 三代制冷剂报价全面上调，旺季渐近看好行 推荐（维持） 业长周期景气 事项： 制冷剂近期迎"二代持稳、三代普涨"行情。根据氟务在线，2 月 28 日，三 代制冷剂主流品种 R32、R32（外贸）、R125、R134a、R410a 产品报价分别调 涨 500、500、2000、2000、1000 元/吨至 6.15-6.25、6.15-6.25、5.1-5.6、5.7- 5.8、5.5-5.6 万元/吨，R143a、R507、R404 产品价格均调涨 1000 元/吨至 4.6- 4.7、4.9-4.95、4.9-4.95 万元/吨。R22、R22（原料）、R22（出口）维持 1.6-1.7、 1.1-1.2、1.6-1.7 万元/吨含税出厂价。 评论： 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | PE（倍） | | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | 2026E ...

| [行Ta业ble_Industry] : | 基础化工 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | 2026年03月03日 shzqdatemark | | [T分ab析le师_Author] : | 于庭泽 | | SAC 编号: | S0870523040001 | | 分析师: | 郭吟冬 | 行 业 周 报 [Table增_R持at（ing维] 持） 证 券 研 究 报 告 化工品价格走势 过去一周涨幅排名前五的产品分别为：液氯（50.00%）、分散黑ECT 300%（22.22%）、碳酸锂（工业级）（20.35%）、碳酸锂（电池 级）（19.62%）、粗酚（13.59%）。过去一周跌幅前五的产品分别 为 ： 纯 MDI （ -10.20% ） 、 NYMEX 天 然 气 （ -6.23% ） 、 电 石 （ - 5.60%）、LDPE（-3.35%）、浓硝酸（-3.33%）。 SAC 编号: S0870525110001 [最Ta近bl一e_年Qu行o业teP指ic数] 与沪深 300 比较 [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《国际油价大幅上涨，关注化工涨价行情 ——基础化工行 ...

三代制冷剂涨价序幕拉开，看好板块中长 期配置价值 ——三代制冷剂涨价点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：三代制冷剂涨价序幕拉开，旺季来临价格有望继续上探。配额政策延续，看 好制冷剂景气上行，配额份额居前企业有望受益，看好板块中长期配置价值。部分相关 标的：巨化股份(600160，未评级)、三美股份(603379，未评级)、昊华科技(600378，未 评级)、永和股份(605020，未评级)。 风险提示：原料价格剧烈波动，制冷剂需求不及预期，四代制冷剂等替代品进展较快。 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） 陈传双 执业证书编号：S0860525110003 chenchuanshuang@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 磷化工战略重要性受到市场认知 | 2026-02-28 | | --- | --- | | PVC 能否成为下一个电解铝 | 2026-02-09 | | 草酸需求预期再次提升 | 2026-02-08 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信 ...

行业周报 | 基础化工 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | 相关研究 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报 -- 一巴斯夫 调涨亚太 TDI 价格，国内 VE 厂家集体提 价（20260202-20260206）-2026.02.08 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报― --- 伊朗局 势升温推动油价上行，TMP、对硝基氯化 苯价格上涨（20260126-20260130 ) -2026.02.03 【 兴证化工 】化工行业周报 -- -- 零碳工 厂建设指导意见发布,公募基金化工持仓 占比提升（20260119-20260123 ) -2026.01.25 分析师: 吉金 S0190522030003 jijin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师: 张勋 S0190521100002 zhangxun19@@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:刘梓涵 S0190523070006 liuzihan@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理:李思桐 lisitong@xyzq.com.cn 伊朗地缘局势升级,关注相关化工品价格波动 投资 ...

证券代码：603379 证券简称：三美股份 公告编号：2026-013 浙江三美化工股份有限公司 关于控股股东及其一致行动人权益变动触及 1%刻度 暨减持结果公告 控股股东胡荣达及其一致行动人胡淇翔、武义三美投资有限公司保证向本 公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 重要内容提示： 控股股东减持前的基本情况 本次减持计划实施前，浙江三美化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或 "三美股份"）控股股东、实际控制人胡荣达先生持有公司股份 225,229,140 股， 约占 公司 总股 本的 36.8938% ；其 一致 行动 人胡 淇翔先 生持 有公 司股份 103,738,226 股，约占公司总股本的 16.9929%，武义三美投资有限公司持有公司 股份 48,937,288 股，约占公司总股本的 8.0162%。胡荣达先生及其一致行动人合 计持有公司股份 377,904,654 股，约占公司总股本的 61.9030%。 减持计划的实施结果情况 公司于 2025 年 11 月 11 日披露了《公司控股股东减持股份计划 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical raw materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a comprehensive price increase for third-generation refrigerants, indicating signs of recovery in fluorine materials [4][24] - The fluorochemical index rose by 4.95%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.97% and the CSI 300 Index by 3.87% [6][37] - The market for fluorite is stable, with the average price of 97% wet fluorite at 3,324 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous period [7][18] Summary by Sections Fluorochemical Market Overview - The fluorite market is currently stable, with prices holding at 3,324 CNY/ton as of February 27, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.71% [7][18] - The market is characterized by a tug-of-war between supply and demand, with downstream industries cautious about high raw material prices [19] Refrigerants - As of February 27, 2026, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 50,000 CNY/ton, and R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, all stable compared to the previous period [20][21] - The market is showing a "second-generation stable, third-generation rising" pattern, with several refrigerants experiencing price increases [22][23] Fluorine Materials - The market for fluorine materials is showing signs of recovery, with price increases for certain products due to tightening supply and rising production costs [9] - Specific fluorine materials like PTFE and PVDF are maintaining stable pricing, while HFP prices have increased by 1.54% [9][27] Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [10][24]

化学原料 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 化学原料 沪深300 《三美股份深度报告：三代制冷剂将 迎"黄金十年"，静待龙头引领周期 反转》（2020.12.30） 《金石资源深度报告（二）：资源储 量优势及高成长动能，金石资源开启 价值发现之旅》（2020.11.2） 《昊华科技深度报告：围绕国家科技 战略，军工基因铸就央企材料平台》 （2020.9.9） 《巨化股份深度报告：制冷剂加速更 新换代，氟化工龙头开启黄金十年》 （2020.2.11） 《金石资源深度报告：行业唯一上市 龙 头 ， 萤 石 高 景 气 助 力 腾 飞 》 （2019.11.29） 三代制冷剂报价全面上调，氟材料底部复苏迹象明显，四 氯乙烯价格大幅上涨 相关研究报告 《三代制冷剂价格淡季坚挺，新一轮 价格上涨或在酝酿；巨化股份、昊华 科技等发布 2025 业绩预增公告—氟 化工行业周报》-2026.2.1 《制冷剂 R404、R507 打响新年上涨 第一枪，三美股份、永和股份业绩预 增—氟化工行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is expected to drive up prices for methanol, ethylene glycol, and urea, with a comprehensive price increase anticipated for chemical products after the holiday [4]. - The report highlights the impact of differentiated electricity pricing in Shaanxi, which may accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities and improve industry dynamics [4]. - The overall capital expenditure in the chemical sector is at its peak, with low inventory levels in the supply chain, suggesting a favorable environment for price increases as downstream production resumes post-holiday [4]. Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $60 and $75 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [5]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level in the medium to long term, while natural gas costs may decrease as the US accelerates its export facility construction [5]. - The report notes that the January PPI for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [7]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: 1. Textile and apparel chain, benefiting from high demand growth and improved supply dynamics [4]. 2. Agricultural chemicals, with stable fertilizer demand and increasing transgenic penetration supporting long-term pesticide demand [4]. 3. Export-related chemical products, as overseas inventories are at historical lows and interest rates are expected to decline [4]. 4. "Anti-involution" policies leading to accelerated clearance of outdated capacities in various sectors [4]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, as well as in lithium battery and fluorine materials [4].