分红方面，建发股份A股上市后累计派现190.39亿元。近三年，累计派现65.70亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，建发股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1.11亿股，相比上期增加412.80万股。红利低波（512890）位居第四大流通股东，持股 4563.05万股，相比上期增加515.63万股。华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF（510880）位居第五大流通股东，持股 3866.46万股，相比上期增加213.16万股。中泰星元灵活配置混合A（006567）位居第七大流通股东，持 股2841.50万股，相比上期减少167.68万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第九大流通股东，持股 2532.41万股，相比上期减少48.01万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，厦门建发股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市思明区环岛东路1699号建发国际大厦29层，成立日 期1998年6月10日，上市日期1998年6月16日，公司主营业务涉及供应链运营、房地产开发。主营业务收 入构成为：供应链运营业务84.94%，房地产业务14.00%，家居商场运营业务1.06%。 建发股份所属申万行业为：交 ...

【中金不动产与空间服务】建发国际集团：经营优异，减值释压，"十五五"将轻装上阵 考虑结算节奏，我们预估公司2025年营业收入大致同比持平或略有下行；结算毛利率因存货结构与历史减值计提 充分，有望于2025年实现筑底企稳。 最后，因2H25地产景气度再度转为承压，我们判断公司核心净利润或因增量存货减值计提有所下行，预计同比下 降26%至31.6亿元。 销售有韧性，补库足、质量优 【中金不动产与空间服务】建发国际集团：经营优异，减值释压，"十五五"将轻装上阵 我们估测公司2025年全口径销售额同比-9%至1228亿元（Top30同比-14%），百强排名稳定为第7名，其中"灯塔战 略"稳步落实，北京、厦门、上海等项目已开盘且销售额居单城榜单前列；此外，北京、上海、杭州三城销售额市 占率分别提升至3.4%/2.7%/10.6%。 同时，公司把握机遇积极拓展优质储备，我们估测2025年1-11月累计拿地强度63%（重点房企平均为40%）。 考虑结算节奏，我们预估公司2025年营业收入大致同比持平或略有下行；结算毛利率因存货结构与历史减值计提 充分，有望于2025年实现筑底企稳。 最后，因2H25地产景气度再度转为承压， ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Real Estate Key Points on New and Second-hand Housing Market - New housing transaction area decreased by 9.7% month-on-month and 39.6% year-on-year across 40 cities [1] - Second-hand housing transaction area increased by 4.4% month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year in 18 cities [1] - New housing inventory area decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year across 12 cities, with a de-stocking cycle of 17.7 months, which is an increase of 0.8 months month-on-month and 5.5 months year-on-year [1] Land Transaction Insights - Land transaction area across 100 cities decreased by 3.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.4% year-on-year [1] - Average land price increased by 1.7% month-on-month but decreased by 15.8% year-on-year [1] - Premium rate for land transactions was 0.7%, down by 1.0 percentage points month-on-month and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Stability and Price Control - The core to stabilizing the real estate market lies in maintaining prices, with expectations for second-hand housing transaction volume to average between 500-600 million square meters in 2024 [2] - First-tier cities, particularly Shanghai, are experiencing unique price increases, indicating a divergence in market trends [2] - Supply-side measures are necessary to de-stock, with new project launch de-stocking rates significantly higher post-policy adjustments [2] - Demand-side policies such as effective use of housing provident funds, tax reductions, and mortgage interest deductions are suggested to boost housing consumption [2] Developer Financing and Investment Stability - Key to stabilizing real estate investment is addressing developers' financing needs [3] - Recommendations include supporting reasonable financing demands of non-state-owned enterprises and establishing a unified management system for developers' financing [3] - Emphasis on accelerating the implementation of special bond storage for affordable housing and urban renewal as a means to stabilize the market [3] - Investment suggestions highlight the importance of liquidity safety and focusing on high-capacity cities and strong product offerings among real estate companies [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include China Resources, Binjiang, and Poly Real Estate, among others [4] - Emphasis on commercial real estate companies that are adapting to new consumption trends and innovative business models [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the profit forecast for Jianfa International Group for 2025 and 2026 by 33% and 30% to CNY 3.16 billion and CNY 3.56 billion respectively, while introducing a forecast for 2027 at CNY 4.12 billion [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to see a year-on-year decline of over 20% in profit for 2025, with estimated core net profit dropping by 26% to CNY 3.16 billion due to pressure from inventory impairment [2] - The company's total sales for 2025 are estimated to decrease by 9% to CNY 122.8 billion, with a stable ranking as the 7th among the top 100 companies [3] - The company has a strong land acquisition intensity of 63% for the period from January to November 2025, significantly higher than the average of 40% for major real estate firms [3] Group 2 - The company's gross profit margin is expected to stabilize before its peers, with over CNY 10 billion in asset impairments confirmed in the first half of 2025, representing 4.1% of the net inventory at the end of that period [4] - The company maintains a prudent approach to impairment provisions, leading to an adjustment in the overall impairment estimate and a downward revision of profit forecasts [4] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a concentrated release of impairments, which may enhance future performance resilience [4]

资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月27日 华源晨会精粹 20260127 金融工程 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析：2025 年四季度公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金 规模发生明显切换：投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上 季度规模缩减 1823 亿元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出， 向中低风险的含权债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基 的新发热度升高，发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。主动权益基金：对港股的 配置热情明显下降，显著增配周期板块。行业维度上，电子、通信、电新为重仓前 三，有色金属、基础化工和非银主动加仓最多。股债混合型基金：同样呈现出减仓 港股、加仓创业板的特征，2025 年四季度重仓股中占比最高的三个行业分别为电子、 有色和通信，主动加仓最多的行业为电子、通信和非银。含权债基：是承接资金向 中低风险迁移的重要方向，权益配置上向周期和大金融倾斜，对医药板块的减仓幅 度较大；债券方面，持续降低可转债仓位，转向利率债和信用债。纯债基金：是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant growth driven by technology in certain sectors, while also noting the substantial losses due to cyclical downturns in others [1] Performance Growth Highlights - **Zhongwei Company (688012)**: Expected net profit between 208 million to 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.74% to 34.93%, driven by increased recognition of plasma etching equipment and a surge in market demand [5] - **Lianchuang Optoelectronics (600363)**: Expected net profit between 43.5 million to 53.2 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.36% to 120.57%, attributed to significant growth in laser business and improved profitability in traditional sectors [6] - **Ruixin Microelectronics (603893)**: Expected net profit between 102.3 million to 110.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.97% to 85.42%, driven by rapid growth in the AIoT market and recognition of new AI technology [7] - **Sangfor Health (688336)**: Expected net profit around 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 311.35%, due to a significant collaboration with Pfizer and advancements in clinical research [8] - **Pulite (002324)**: Expected net profit growth of 155.76% to 194.73%, driven by the demand for high polymer materials in the automotive lightweight trend [9] - **Tonghua Dongbao (600867)**: Expected net profit around 124.21 million yuan, turning from loss to profit, driven by market share gains in insulin products [10] - **Suotong Development (603612)**: Expected net profit between 73 million to 85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167.98% to 212.03%, due to rising prices and demand in the prebaked anode industry [11] Major Performance Declines - **China Shipbuilding Technology (600072)**: Expected net loss between -260 million to -340 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of over 24 times, due to cyclical downturns in shipbuilding and high material costs [12] - **Silver Nonferrous Metals (601212)**: Expected net loss between -45 million to -67.5 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to legal disputes affecting financial performance [13] - **China Metallurgical Group (601618)**: Expected net profit between 130 million to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 76.28% to 80.73%, impacted by the downturn in the construction industry [14] - **Jindi Group (600383)**: Expected net loss between -1.11 billion to -1.35 billion yuan, with increased losses due to declining sales and inventory impairments [15] - **Jianfa Co. (600153)**: Expected net loss between -1 billion to -520 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to increased impairments in real estate [16] Industry Trend Analysis - **Technology and Innovation-Driven Sectors**: Companies in semiconductor equipment, laser military applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals are experiencing rapid growth due to high demand in AIoT, national defense, and biomedicine [23] - **Traditional Cyclical Industries**: Sectors like coal and engineering machinery are facing significant adjustments due to demand shortages and price declines, leading to widespread performance pressures [24] - **Pharmaceutical Industry Disparities**: Innovative drugs are seeing explosive growth through external licensing, while traditional formulations and raw materials are significantly impacted by procurement policies [24] - **External Environment Uncertainties**: Factors such as international trade tensions and regulatory changes are significantly affecting corporate performance, necessitating enhanced risk management [24] - **Asset Quality Risks**: Many companies are reporting substantial asset impairment provisions, indicating potential inefficiencies in previous investments [24]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

开源证券研报指出，建发股份全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利，维持"买入"评级。公 司预计2025年度实现归母净利润为-100亿元到-52亿元，预计实现扣非归母净利润为-65亿元到-33亿元， 同比转亏。美凯龙及联发集团预计归母净利润为负，影响公司全年业绩。2025年，公司大宗商品业务核 心品类的经营总货量继续保持增长；消费品业务与行业头部企业深化合作，业务规模稳步提升；公司非 中国大陆的海外业务规模约140亿美元，同比+37%。公司2026-2030年供应链运营业务战略规划将围 绕"提升经济效益、提升市场地位、提升海外规模"三大战略目标发展供应链业务。 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, Chengdu recorded a historical high of 150 transactions for new homes priced over 20 million, representing only about 0.2% of the city's total transactions, highlighting a niche market with significant attention due to high prices [1][12] - The beginning of 2026 has seen a surge in high-end property transactions, with over 44 units sold in less than a month, indicating strong demand in this segment [3][4] Market Performance - The projects contributing to the high-end market include Jianfa Haiyao and Beichen S1, with the latter achieving a record transaction price of approximately 54.08 million for a single unit [5][9] - The Financial City area has emerged as the best-performing segment for properties priced over 20 million, accounting for about 95% of the total transactions in this category [8] Buyer Demographics - A significant portion of buyers in the 20 million+ segment are under 45 years old, with this age group making up nearly 85% of the purchasers, indicating a trend towards younger buyers [12] Product Quality and Market Dynamics - The high-end market is supported by a shift in product offerings, moving from basic housing to lifestyle-oriented developments, which cater to the evolving needs of high-net-worth individuals [12] - Despite a 7.8% year-on-year decline in the overall new housing market, Chengdu maintained the highest sales volume and area in the country, providing a stable foundation for the luxury segment [12][14] Future Outlook - The 2026 market is expected to continue its upward trend, with multiple new projects set to launch, potentially leading to record supply levels in the 20 million+ category [16][17] - The success of the high-end market will depend on the diversity of upcoming projects and their ability to resonate with affluent buyers [16]

Core Viewpoint - Yuanji Food Group, the parent company of Yuanji Dumpling, has submitted its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first publicly listed Chinese dumpling and wonton company [1][15]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2023-2025, Yuanji Food reported total revenues of 2.026 billion, 2.561 billion, and 1.982 billion yuan, with Yuanji Dumpling contributing approximately 97% to total revenue [1][15]. - The company's gross profit margins were 25.9%, 23.0%, and 24.7% respectively, and adjusted net profits were 179 million, 180 million, and 192 million yuan during the same periods [1][15]. Store Expansion - As of September 30, 2025, Yuanji Food operated 4,266 Yuanji Dumpling stores across over 200 cities in 32 provinces, including international locations in Singapore and plans for Thailand, Malaysia, and the UK [1][15]. - The company has three types of store models: fresh food stores, cooked food stalls, and mixed-service stores, with 3,333 dine-in stores making up 78.1% of total outlets [5][18]. Operational Challenges - The average daily GMV per store decreased from 24.69 yuan to 22.79 yuan, reflecting a 12.8% decline compared to 2023 [2][16]. - The average daily orders per store increased only slightly by 2.5%, while the average daily GMV fell by 5.4% compared to 2024 [2][16]. Franchise Dynamics - The number of new franchisees dropped significantly, with only 109 new franchisees and 321 new stores added in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to 300 new franchisees and 803 new stores in the previous year [6][19]. - The ratio of new franchise openings to closures fell from 15:1 to 3:1, indicating a challenging environment for franchisees [6][19]. Market Strategy - The company has accelerated its expansion into lower-tier cities, with over 1,000 stores in these markets, which account for 26.6% of total stores [9][22]. - However, the lower consumer spending power in these markets raises concerns about franchisee profitability and return on investment [9][22]. Investment and Valuation - Yuanji Food raised 300 million yuan in its A-round financing in 2023, with a post-money valuation of 2 billion yuan, and later raised 150 million yuan in B-round financing, increasing its valuation to 2.5 billion yuan [10][23]. - The company's valuation surged by 40.4% to 3.509 billion yuan within three months, raising questions about potential market manipulation by institutional investors [11][24]. Related Transactions - The company has seen a significant increase in transactions with related parties, with procurement from six associated companies rising from 42.025 million yuan to 97.221 million yuan, a 131.3% increase [11][24]. - These related companies are closely linked to the founder's wife, raising concerns about the transparency of these transactions [11][24].