Group 1 - China Aluminum's stock increased by 5.13%, reaching 9.01 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.336 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.12%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 154.572 billion CNY [1] - China Aluminum Co., Ltd. was established on September 10, 2001, and went public on April 30, 2007. The company is involved in the exploration and mining of bauxite and coal, production and sales of alumina, primary aluminum, and aluminum alloy products, as well as technology research and development, international trade, logistics, and power generation [1] - The main revenue sources for China Aluminum are 97.41% from product sales, 1.56% from other business income, and 1.03% from service provision [1] Group 2 - According to data, one fund under China Europe Fund has a significant holding in China Aluminum. The fund, China Europe Zhaoyi Steady One-Year Holding Mixed A (013912), held 280,600 shares in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous period, accounting for 1.14% of the fund's net value, ranking as the seventh largest holding [2] - The estimated floating profit from this holding is approximately 123,500 CNY [2] - The fund was established on January 5, 2022, with a current size of 134 million CNY, and has achieved a return of 6.1% this year, ranking 6,537 out of 8,162 in its category [2]

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Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with production figures showing a notable increase in recent months [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In April 2025, China's aluminum alloy production reached 1.53 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [1]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of aluminum alloys in China totaled 5.76 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 13.7% [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - Key listed companies in the aluminum industry include China Aluminum (601600), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Mingtai Aluminum (601677), Yun Aluminum (000807), Xinjiang Zhonghe (600888), Yiqiu Resources (601388), Haomei New Materials (002988), Asia Pacific Technology (002540), and Shunbo Alloy (002996) [1]. Group 3: Research and Analysis - The report titled "2026-2032 China Aluminum Alloy Industry Market Operation Pattern and Prospect Strategic Analysis Report" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the market dynamics and future trends of the aluminum alloy industry [1][2].

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The copper market is experiencing upward price movement due to large copper mine production cuts, with the current phase being a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle. The supply disruptions in industrial metals are expected to lead to stable price increases, enhancing profits for listed companies in the industry. However, a rapid increase in copper prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to inventory accumulation during peak seasons, which is a signal of potential price peaks. Continuous monitoring of inventory changes is necessary [1][14][30] - The aluminum market is approaching a production peak in China, while foreign construction progress is slow. The next two years are expected to see peak production for China's electrolytic aluminum. The domestic aluminum supply-demand balance is fragile, and any increase in demand or supply disruptions could lead to shortages [1][32][38] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating rising employment risks and slowing GDP growth. The Fed's recent rate cut aligns with market expectations, and further cuts are anticipated. Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold reserves, suggesting a potential upward trend in gold prices through 2025 [3][11] Group 3: Energy Metals - The implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to create a significant shortage in the global cobalt market over the next two years, leading to a long-term price increase. The lithium market is currently in a state of relative balance, with supply disruptions not fully resolved but demand expectations rising [4][5][12] Group 4: Minor Metals - The strategic importance of minor metals is increasing, with export controls on rare earths tightening. The price of rare earth minerals has seen significant increases, with prices for certain products rising by 37% quarter-on-quarter. Tungsten prices are also expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [6][13][15] Group 5: Tin - Global visible tin inventories have significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022. This trend indicates a tightening supply situation in the tin market [2][41][52]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [2] Research Team - Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team, including Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, and Zhang Lei [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Concerns about potential additional tariffs between China and the US may put pressure on aluminum prices. Different segments of the aluminum industry (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloys) face various supply - demand situations and price trends. Due to factors such as Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Sino - US trade conflicts, prices in these segments are expected to fluctuate widely. Appropriate investment strategies are proposed for each segment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The commissioning of domestic and overseas projects may increase alumina production in October. For example, the first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, and the Yangjiagou bauxite mine of Lvliang Mining (annual capacity of 600,000 tons) was put into operation at the end of August. Overseas, the third - phase 1,000,000 - ton alumina project of Nanshan Aluminum in Indonesia started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025 [3] - **Price and investment strategy**: Domestic alumina production is in the red, and the supply - demand outlook is loose, making the price likely to fall rather than rise. Investors are advised to short at high prices, paying attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 [3] 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in October. Projects like the second - phase energy - saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai's 50,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity started to restart, and overseas projects such as Huatong Cable's 120,000 - ton project in Angola may increase imports [4] - **Demand - side factors**: The capacity utilization rate of downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased last week, except for the possible increase in the production of remelted rods (aluminum poles) in October [4] - **Price and investment strategy**: With the rising expectation of Fed's interest - rate cut and the increasing proportion of molten aluminum production, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices, paying attention to support and resistance levels for both Shanghai and London aluminum [5] 3.3 Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - side factors**: The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may decrease in October. Although the production of domestic scrap aluminum may increase, the import may decrease due to overseas competition and geopolitical issues. Projects like Yongchun Qingyuan Metal's and Guizhou Guangyu Aluminum's are put into production, but overall production is expected to decline [6] - **Price and investment strategy**: Given the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the tight supply - demand outlook for domestic scrap aluminum, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys lightly, paying attention to relevant support and resistance levels [6]

Core Views - The multi-metal strategic attributes continue to strengthen, driving value reassessment in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - The investment rating remains "outperform" [2] Tin Market Analysis - Global exchange visible inventory has significantly decreased, with a peak of 22,763 tons in May 2024, followed by a reduction to below 9,000 tons by the end of 2022 [5][73] - The price of tin is expected to rise due to the limited number of new global tin mining projects, with most expected to come online after 2027 [51] Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, driven by signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for further increases in gold prices through 2025 [5] Energy Metals - The implementation of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to lead to a long-term bull market for cobalt prices [6] - Lithium prices are rebounding, supported by strong demand in the global energy storage market, with supply disruptions still present [6] Minor Metals - The strategic attributes of minor metals are strengthening, with rare earth export controls tightening and significant price increases observed [6] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [8] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to large copper mine production cuts, with a focus on monitoring inventory changes [7][9] - Aluminum production in China is nearing its peak, with a fragile balance in the market that could shift to shortages if demand increases [7][32] Recommended Investment Targets - The report recommends a diversified portfolio including companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the volatility in the non-ferrous metals sector due to dual factors of risk aversion and industrial uncertainty, with significant price increases in gold and copper driven by expectations of overseas monetary easing and supply changes [1][2]. - Key companies in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, Shanjin International, and China National Gold International, which are recommended for investment focus [3]. - The report provides a detailed review of the market performance of five major sectors: precious metals, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony, along with a summary of price changes, supply-demand structures, profitability, industry news, and a list of leading companies [1]. Group 2: Gold and Precious Metals - Gold prices rebounded quickly, reaching $3974.5 per ounce, a 2.29% increase since the beginning of the month, while silver prices rose to $50.76 per ounce, up 6.63% [2]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 70000 ounces to 32700000 ounces, indicating a rise in risk aversion among investors [2]. Group 3: Copper - Copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper closing at $10765 per ton, a 1.89% increase, and SHFE copper at 85900 yuan per ton, up 3.06% [4]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 1075 tons since the beginning of the month, indicating tightening supply [5]. - Key companies to watch in the copper sector include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Cangge Mining, and Minmetals Resources [8]. Group 4: Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached 21020 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 290 yuan [9]. - The operating rate for aluminum profile enterprises is at 53.6%, indicating a slow recovery in downstream demand [9][10]. - Recommended companies in the aluminum sector include Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum [10]. Group 5: Tin and Antimony - Tin prices surged by 5.16%, with domestic refined tin priced at 288830 yuan per ton, while supply remains tight due to lower-than-expected recovery from Myanmar's tin mines [11]. - Antimony prices continued to decline, with weak supply and demand dynamics [11][12]. - Companies to focus on in the tin sector include Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, Xingye Silver Tin, and Hunan Gold [12]. Group 6: Investment Ratings and Strategies - The industry maintains a "recommended" rating, with gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors all showing investment value [13]. - Key variables affecting future market trends include Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, mining accidents, and downstream operating rates [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., which may elevate demand for safe-haven assets like gold and strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten [5][9]. - The copper market is experiencing supply disruptions, with prices trending upward due to tight supply conditions [5]. - Aluminum demand is expected to continue, with potential opportunities for investment following market corrections [5]. - The strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten is emphasized due to recent export controls and geopolitical developments [5][9]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with LME copper prices at $10,735 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.9% [5]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is negative, indicating tight supply [5]. - Companies with rich copper reserves are recommended for investment [9]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $2,800 per ton, up 3.6% week-on-week [5]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain stable [5]. - Investment opportunities are suggested for companies in the aluminum sector following market corrections [9]. Gold Sector - Gold prices are rising, with SHFE gold at 901.6 RMB per gram, up 3.1% week-on-week [5]. - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may enhance gold's strategic position as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Investment in gold-related companies is recommended due to their undervalued resource potential [9]. Rare Metals Sector - Rare earth prices remain stable, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 683,000 RMB per ton [5]. - Recent export controls on rare earths have heightened their strategic importance amid U.S.-China tensions [5][9]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in rare earth production [9]. Steel Sector - Steel prices are stable, with SHFE rebar at 3,103 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [6]. - The report notes frequent disruptions in iron ore supply negotiations, which may impact future prices [6]. - Companies with high self-sufficiency in iron ore are recommended for investment [9].

Core Insights - The importance of rare earths as a strategic resource is highlighted, with China's dominance in this area compared to oil-rich Middle Eastern countries [1] - Recent external news has positively impacted the rare earth sector, with the industry index rising over 6% on October 13, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment and solid long-term investment logic [1] Industry Drivers - Strong policy support and optimization of industry order are key drivers of the current recovery in the rare earth industry, with stricter management of supply-side controls following the release of new mining and separation quotas [1] - The explosive growth in downstream demand, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, is providing significant growth momentum for the rare earth industry [1] Price Stabilization - The stabilization and recovery of rare earth prices have created upward potential for leading companies' performance, with prices returning to a relatively reasonable range after previous adjustments [2] - The dual effect of supply control and demand recovery is leading to a gradual stabilization and upward trend in mainstream rare earth product prices, improving revenue and profit expectations for resource-rich leading enterprises [2] Investment Products - The market offers two main types of rare earth-themed funds: index funds and actively managed funds, with six funds specifically tracking rare earth industry indices, including four ETFs and two ETF-linked funds [2] - The index funds provide transparency and lower management fees, while actively managed funds have a broader investment scope, potentially including new energy metals and materials, but with higher uncertainty [3] Fund Performance - The Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resource A fund is noted for its deep involvement in the rare earth industry, with approximately 60% of its assets allocated to this sector [3] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a new wave of development opportunities driven by favorable policies, demand, and prices, making rare earth-themed funds a time-efficient investment choice for interested investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by recent export controls on rare earth materials and increasing demand as the traditional peak season approaches [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 13, 2025, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.87%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748) up 14.34%, Yuyuan New Materials (600206) up 10.00%, and Northern Rare Earth (600111) up 9.53% [1] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Fund (159880) increased by 1.64%, with the latest price reported at 1.79 yuan [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Recent announcements from two departments regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance compliance trade, with a focus on facilitating applications that meet regulations [1] - The scope of the export controls has expanded to include technologies and production lines related to the recycling of rare earth secondary resources, covering the entire rare earth industry chain and impacting sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for rare earth materials is anticipated to improve as the traditional peak season approaches, potentially leading to a favorable supply-demand balance and stable or increasing rare earth prices [1] - Citic Securities recommends strategic allocation within the rare earth industry chain due to the expected strengthening of supply rigidity [1] Group 4: Index Composition - The Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) includes 50 securities that are prominent in terms of scale and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 53.12% of the total, including companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [2]