1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the Russia-Ukraine crisis has triggered the withdrawal of safe - haven buying, leading to a sharp decline in precious metals. Gold and silver are expected to continue to adjust, with gold needing monthly - level adjustment and silver having further downward space [8][9]. - Various commodities show different trends. For example, copper prices are pressured by the rising US dollar; zinc is supported by the external market; lead prices are supported by the decrease in domestic inventory, etc. [12][20][23] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The previous rise was due to continuous risk events. However, with the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine crisis, the risk of profit - taking and the weakening of tariff - related safe - haven sentiment have led to a decline. A long - term bullish view still exists, and one can consider re - entering the long position after a significant correction [8][9]. - **Silver**: The recent price has been volatile, with a decline in the overseas spot squeeze risk. In the short term, there is still downward space, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to rise [9]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The rising US dollar has pressured copper prices. Import and production data in China and other countries show a complex supply - demand situation, and the trend intensity is neutral [20][22]. - **Zinc**: The external market supports zinc prices. The inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has soared. The trend intensity is neutral [23][24]. - **Lead**: The decrease in domestic inventory supports lead prices. The trend intensity is neutral [26]. - **Tin**: The price is affected by macro factors. The trend intensity is neutral [28][31]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a range - bound trend, and alumina shows a slight rebound. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity of all three is neutral [32][34]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel shows a short - term narrow - range shock, and stainless steel has difficulty finding an upward driving force in supply and demand. The cost limits the downward space. The trend intensity of both is neutral [35][37]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: The disk valuation is being repaired, but macro risks still exist. - **Propylene**: It shows a short - term low - level shock. - **PVC**: The trend is weak. - **Fuel Oil**: It shows a narrow - range shock, and the short - term weakness remains. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high and low sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable. 3.4 Building Materials and Metals - **Iron Ore**: It shows a wide - range shock. The trend intensity is neutral [45][47]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, with a wide - range shock. The trend intensity of both is neutral [50][54]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The cost provides bottom support, and they show a wide - range shock. The trend intensity of both is neutral [56][58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The expectations are fluctuating, and they show a wide - range shock. The trend intensity of both is neutral [59][62]. 3.5 Others - **Carbonate Lithium**: The warehouse receipt is being de - stocked, and the short - term price is relatively firm. The trend intensity is 1 (slightly bullish) [38][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipt continues to be de - stocked. The trend intensity is 1 (slightly bullish) [42][44]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the spot transaction price. The trend intensity is neutral [42][44]. - **Log**: It shows an oscillating and repeated trend [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides market trend forecasts and fundamental data for various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities will experience wide - range fluctuations, with market sentiment being cautious, and some are supported by cost at the bottom, while the log market will fluctuate repeatedly [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 769.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.33%. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spread showed minor changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [9] - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's RB2601 futures closing price was 3,047 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.36%. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spread changed slightly [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products also changed [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [13] Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [10] - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's HC2601 futures closing price was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.31%. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis and spread changed slightly [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to rebar, including changes in crude steel output, weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [13] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations supported by cost at the bottom [15] - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and there were also changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price changes in different regions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, a steel mill's ferrosilicon procurement price decreased, and the production and sales of manganese ore by South32 changed [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [17] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [18][19] - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased, and spot prices were mostly stable. The basis and spread changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [21] Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Fluctuate repeatedly [22] - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interest, and spreads of different log contracts changed, and most spot prices remained stable [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the LPR remained unchanged; in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with varying trends in different cities [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [25]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminium - **Global Demand**: Increased by 2% year-to-date (YTD) through August, with China up 3% and the Rest of the World (RoW) up 1% [1][2] - **Production**: China's aluminium production is approximately 44 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), nearing its production cap [1] - **Inventories**: Global visible aluminium inventories stand at 1,130 kilotonnes (kt), remaining below 2024 levels despite a recent increase of about 300 kt over the past three months [1] Key Insights - **Price Dynamics**: Aluminium prices have risen by 12% YTD, underperforming copper, which has increased by 22% [1] - **Alumina Prices**: Alumina prices have decreased by 50% YTD, positively impacting margins, with the alumina/aluminium linkage rate at historical lows of 11% compared to a long-term average of 17% [1] - **Future Market Outlook**: The forward curve indicates a slight contango, with expectations of a looser market by 2026 due to significant supply additions from Indonesia [1][2] Production and Demand Forecast - **2026 Projections**: Global primary aluminium production is expected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year (YoY), driven by a 5% increase in ex-China output, particularly from Indonesia, which is projected to add over 1.2 million tonnes of new supply [2] - **Market Surplus**: Anticipated modest surplus of approximately 400 kt in 2026 as demand growth slows to 2.1% YoY [2] Investment Recommendations - **Overweight Calls**: J.P. Morgan's key Overweight recommendations for aluminium exposure include: - Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN) - Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) - Press Metal (PMAH MK) [1] Financial Metrics of Key Companies - **Rio Tinto Ltd.**: Market cap of $118.2 billion, EV of $136.6 billion, with a target price of $137.0, indicating a 5% upside [5] - **Norsk Hydro**: Market cap of $13.8 billion, EV of $15.9 billion, with a target price of $74.0, indicating a 6% upside [5] - **Press Metal**: Market cap of $12.2 billion, EV of $13.1 billion, with a target price of $6.8, indicating a 9% upside [5] Additional Insights - **Alumina Production**: China's alumina production is projected to increase from 79.8 million tonnes in 2023 to 83.7 million tonnes in 2024 [19] - **Global Production and Demand Summary**: Global aluminium production is expected to rise from 143.3 million tonnes in 2023 to 146.9 million tonnes in 2024, with a corresponding increase in demand [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the aluminium industry, along with investment recommendations and financial metrics of key players.

Core Insights - The futures market shows a balanced distribution of bullish and bearish forces, with 43 contracts rising and 34 contracts falling, indicating a diverse allocation of funds and trading activities across different commodities [2] Futures Market Overview - The main contracts with the highest gains include the shipping index (European line) at 2512 (+5.10%), the CSI 2512 (+2.08%), and Shanghai gold 2512 (+2.02%), significantly influenced by supply and demand dynamics [5] - The most significant inflows of funds were seen in the CSI 500 2512 (2.453 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.412 billion), and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 2512 (1.179 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [7] - Conversely, the largest outflows were from coking coal 2601 (-735 million), Shanghai silver 2512 (-288 million), and styrene 2511 (-244 million), suggesting notable capital withdrawal from these commodities [7] Position Changes - Significant increases in open interest were observed in timber 2601 (+9.40%), shipping index (European line) 2512 (+8.94%), and asphalt 2601 (+8.54%), indicating potential new capital inflows and high trading activity [10] - Conversely, notable decreases in open interest were recorded in apple 2601 (-8.09%), Shanghai lead 2511 (-12.15%), and Shanghai tin 2511 (-13.31%), suggesting potential capital withdrawal and warranting attention for future performance [10] Commodity-Specific Insights - BHP reported a total iron ore production of 70.246 million tons for Q3 2025, a decrease of 9.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.9% year-on-year, with total sales of 70.592 million tons, reflecting similar trends [11] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a total import quota of 257 million tons for non-state trade crude oil in 2026, outlining the application conditions and procedures [12] - South32 reported a significant increase in manganese ore sales to 854,000 wet tons for Q3 2025, up 83% quarter-on-quarter, driven by successful operational recovery plans [16] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) forecasts crude palm oil prices to stabilize above 4,400 ringgit per ton in 2026, supported by biodiesel demand and uncertainties in export inventories [16] Market Dynamics - The natural rubber market is experiencing a short-term recovery in sentiment, with prices rising by 1.92% to 15,150 yuan per ton, despite supply pressures and weak demand [23] - The shipping index (European line) saw a significant rise of 5.10%, with market expectations for price increases due to supply pressures and demand dynamics [25] - The glass market is facing downward pressure, with prices dropping by 1.90% to 1,087 yuan per ton, driven by high inventory levels and weak demand [27]

Core Insights - South32 reported a 135% increase in its first-quarter manganese output, indicating a strong recovery in operations following the disruptions caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan [1] Company Performance - The significant rise in manganese output reflects the company's effective recovery strategies post-cyclone [1]

Core Insights - The Trump administration is increasing government ownership in mining companies, raising questions about potential similar investments from the Canadian government [2][3] - The U.S. government has taken stakes in companies like Trilogy Metals and Lithium Americas, which are involved in significant mining projects [2][3] - The approach of the Canadian government towards mining investments is more cautious, focusing on fast-tracking projects without seeking equity stakes [4] U.S. Government Investments - The U.S. Department of War has acquired a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals and previously announced a 5% stake in Lithium Americas, which is developing a $3 billion project [2] - Fortune Minerals received $6.4 million from the Pentagon as part of a total of $17 million from both U.S. and Canadian governments for its cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper project [5][6] - MP Materials secured a $400 million agreement with the Pentagon for a 15% stake and critical minerals procurement for defense projects [9] Industry Reactions - Some industry players welcome U.S. government investments, viewing them as beneficial for raising funds in a challenging environment [6][11] - Concerns have been raised about the implications of government ownership in private companies, with some preferring more Canadian-based projects [8][10] - The stocks of companies receiving U.S. government investments have seen significant increases [11] Canadian Government's Stance - The Canadian government has not pursued equity stakes in mining projects but has opened a Major Projects Office to expedite approvals [4] - There is a call for Canada to revise its foreign investment policies, particularly regarding investments from China [6] Environmental and Local Opposition - The Trump administration's support for mining projects has faced local and environmental opposition, particularly concerning potential impacts on wildlife and communities [21][22] - The ongoing legal challenges regarding the Pebble copper-gold project highlight the contentious nature of some mining investments [22]

Group 1 - The quarterly pricing negotiations between Japanese aluminum buyers and global producers are unusually prolonged due to a significant gap in opinions regarding the premium for primary aluminum for the October-December shipping period [1] - Japanese buyers are negotiating with global suppliers like Rio Tinto and South32, with initial premium offers ranging from $98 to $103 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 5% to 9% compared to the previous quarter [1] - A Japanese processing plant representative indicated that the demand is weak and inventory levels are high, leading buyers to seek premiums in the $80 range, while current spot premiums are noted to be in the $70 range [1] Group 2 - As premiums continue to rise in the US and Europe, it is expected to tighten supply in Asia, prompting sellers to insist on higher premium levels [2] - The negotiations are anticipated to extend until the end of the month due to the ongoing discrepancies in pricing expectations [2]

Group 1 - The quarterly pricing negotiations between Japanese aluminum buyers and global producers are unusually prolonged due to significant differences in opinions regarding the premium for primary aluminum for the October-December shipment period [1] - Japanese buyers have set a regional benchmark for premiums based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price, but the ongoing negotiations have lasted several weeks after the quarter began, which is atypical [1] - Initial premium offers from producers ranged from $98 to $103 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 5% to 9% compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - A producer later adjusted their offer from $103 to $97 per ton, but buyers rejected this, seeking a premium in the $80 range, citing current spot premiums in the low $70s [1] - A representative from a Japanese processing plant indicated that the $97 offer had expired and requested a new quote from producers, emphasizing weak demand and high inventory levels as reasons for their lower price expectations [1] - As of the end of September, aluminum inventories at Japan's three major ports reached 341,300 tons, an increase of 1.8% month-on-month [1] Group 3 - A producer's representative noted that rising premiums in the U.S. and Europe are expected to tighten supply in Asia, leading sellers to insist on higher price levels [2] - The negotiations are anticipated to continue until the end of the month [2]

Core Insights - The article focuses on the Asia Value & Moat Stocks research service, which targets value investors looking for significant discrepancies between stock prices and intrinsic values, particularly in the Asian market [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The service emphasizes deep value balance sheet bargains, such as net cash stocks, net-nets, low price-to-book (P/B) stocks, and sum-of-the-parts discounts [1] - It also highlights wide moat stocks, which are characterized by strong earnings power at discounted prices, including high-quality businesses and hidden champions [1] Group 2: Market Focus - The primary focus of the investment ideas is on stocks listed in Asia, with a particular emphasis on the Hong Kong market [1] - The service provides a range of watch lists with monthly updates to assist investors in identifying potential opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alloy market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the alloy prices are oscillating. Manganese ore prices are firm this week, the fluctuation range of manganese silicon is limited, and the price of ferrosilicon is oscillating weakly due to fundamental pressure [3][6]. - Macroscopically, domestically, relevant departments issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition; overseas, there are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and tariff events may lead to an escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Microscopically, the molten iron output decreased slightly, the support for raw material demand is limited, and the cost of ferrosilicon is expected to decline, resulting in a higher price fluctuation range than that of manganese silicon [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Performance - The FeSi2511 contract oscillated this week, closing at 5,436 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton compared to the pre - holiday closing price, with a trading volume of 234,128 lots and an open interest of 118,193 lots, an increase of 112 lots compared to the previous period [8]. - The MnSi2601 contract oscillated this week, closing at 5,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to the pre - holiday closing price, with a trading volume of 279,333 lots and an open interest of 376,591 lots, an increase of 28,300 lots compared to the previous period [8]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country oscillated weakly this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon - manganese spot in major regions across the country was 5,620 - 5,980 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 120 - 0 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon Fundamentals 3.3.1 Production - The weekly output of manganese silicon was 204,200 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons compared to last week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 1.1%. The weekly operating rate was 43.19%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points compared to last week [17]. 3.3.2 Steel Tendering - After the holiday, the steel tendering price showed a downward trend, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode [24]. 3.3.3 Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of molten iron decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to last week; the daily average molten iron output was 241,540 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to last week. The overall demand for manganese silicon was weak [27]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of October 10, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 54,041, a decrease of 2,070 compared to September 26, with a converted inventory of 270,205 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 10,360 tons [31]. - In September, the average available days of silicon - manganese inventory in steel mills were 15.93 days (+0.95 days) [32]. - As of October 10, the inventory of 63 domestic silicon - manganese sample enterprises was 242,500 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons compared to September 26 [36]. 3.3.5 Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore departure volume recovered, and the departure volume from Ghana increased month - on - month. The major port aggregated departure volume was 984,400 tons, an increase of 48,900 tons compared to the previous period [40]. - After the holiday, the arrival of manganese ore at ports may increase. The expected future arrival volume at Tianjin Port is 503,900 tons, and at Qinzhou Port is 82,800 tons [47]. - The manganese ore port quotations were firm. For example, in November 2025, Comilog's Gabonese lump was reported at 4.35 US dollars/ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 US dollars/ton - degree [52]. 3.4 Ferrosilicon Fundamentals 3.4.1 Production - The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 115,800 tons, with no change compared to last week and an increase of 13,000 tons compared to the week before the holiday. The weekly operating rate was 35.94%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points compared to the pre - holiday operating rate [58]. 3.4.2 Steel Tendering - Steel mills have not launched a new round of tendering quotations, and the price of traders' point - price shipments is relatively low [65]. 3.4.3 Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of molten iron decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to last week; the daily average molten iron output was 241,540 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to last week [75]. - The non - steel demand: the stainless - steel crude steel output in September was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.65%. The metal output in September was 76,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The ferrosilicon export volume in August was 35,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [75]. 3.4.4 Inventory - As of October 10, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 15,040, a decrease of 2,333 compared to September 26, with a converted inventory of 75,200 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 11,665 tons [77]. - In September, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.52 days (+0.85 days) [78]. - As of October 10, the inventory of 60 domestic ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 66,030 tons, an increase of 4,570 tons compared to September 26 [82]. 3.4.5 Cost - The raw material price decreased, and the production cost center of ferrosilicon moved down [85].