证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-04-30 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250428：25Q1 固收+基金转债持仓十大亮点 特征 1：2025Q1，固收+基金规模整体为净申购，其中二级债基和可转债 基金的基金规模增幅相对更明显，受益于优异的净值表现，尤其是可转债 基金在 2025Q1 表现突出，整体跑赢其他固收+基金和中证转债指数，与 等权指数相当。 特征 2：观察大类资产配置情况，固收+基金多数降低了 杠杆率以及含权资产整体仓位，对其中转债、股票的配置变化不一。具体 来看，一级债基和二级债基相对稳健，降低了整体含权仓位的比例；转债 基金降低了股票仓位但提高转债仓位；而偏债混和灵活配置型基金则降 低了转债仓位，增加了股票仓位，弹性诉求或更强。按照基金波动性划分 看，高波基金提高了转债仓位，略微降低股票仓位；中低波基金的含权仓 位整体下降。 宏观量化经济指数周报 20250427：如何理解新的结构性货币政策工具和 新型政策性金融工具 从"量"和"价"两个方面拓宽流动性投放空间，结构性政策工具的"量 增、价降"也是"适度宽松"的重要内容。 本 ...

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of 10.82 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 124.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 210 million yuan, up 3344.1% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 210 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10562.3% [1] - The snack wholesale business maintained a doubling growth trend, with revenue of 10.688 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 127.6% [1] Group 2 - The net profit margin of the wholesale business significantly improved quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 412 million yuan after excluding share-based payment expenses, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.85% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.0%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales/management expense ratio decreased by 0.7% and 0.5% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company expects to see continued growth in profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 of 944 million, 1.257 billion, and 1.608 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 221.68%, 33.18%, and 27.85%, respectively [2]

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生谭伊亭 报道 在2024年，乳业市场全面收缩。 尼尔森IQ数据显示，2024年乳品全渠道销售额同比下滑2.7%。中国乳制品工业协会（中乳协）相关数 据显示，乳制品生产企业亦面临巨大压力，为应对原料乳过剩，企业大量生产工业乳粉，库存激增。目 前每销售一吨乳粉亏损1万-2万元。 具体到各大巨头，则是普遍性营收下滑。 2025年4月29日晚，伊利披露业绩。财报显示，在2024年，伊利营收1153.93亿元，同比下滑8.24 %；归 母净利润84.53亿元，同比下滑18.94 %。 同天，光明乳业披露财报显示，其2024年营收242.78亿元，同比下滑8.33 %；归母净利润7.22亿元，同 比下滑25.36%。 此前披露的财报显示，在2024年，蒙牛营收886.748亿元，同比下滑10.1%；归母净利润1.045亿元，同 比下滑97.8%。 同年，新乳业营收106.65 亿元，同比下滑2.93%；归母净利润5.38亿元，同比增长24.8%。 而收缩的需求，对于头部乳企的影响，是具体而深刻的。 以伊利为例，在2024年，其液体乳产品营收750.03 亿元，同比下降12.32%。其中， ...

Group 1 - Over 300 active equity funds have reached new year-to-date highs in net value since April 7, driven by structural investment opportunities and a focus on domestic consumption [1][2] - As of April 28, 38 funds achieved new year-to-date highs, with a total of 302 funds since April 7, reflecting a market rebound supported by favorable policies [1][2] - Funds heavily invested in the consumer sector, such as Guotai Consumer Select and Pengyang Consumer Industry Mixed Fund, have shown remarkable performance amid rising domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The Shunwan Lingxin LeRong One-Year Holding Mixed Fund has reported over 30% returns year-to-date, focusing on trendy toys, gold jewelry, and pet-related sectors [2] - The Longcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Selected Mixed Fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 49.78%, with several other pharmaceutical funds also exceeding 35% returns [2] - Fund managers are increasingly adapting their strategies to capture emerging consumption opportunities, moving away from traditional investment paths [3] Group 3 - Fund managers emphasize the importance of understanding consumer demands and adapting to the preferences of younger generations, which is driving a new consumption cycle [3] - Investment strategies are evolving to include a broader range of assets and sectors, focusing on growth stocks, policy-driven companies, and dividend-paying value companies [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong competitive advantages in its business model, with a significant revenue increase of 124% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 10.82 billion yuan, and a notable rise in net profit to 215 million yuan from 6 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1][2] - The snack retail business achieved revenue of 10.69 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 3.85%, reflecting a sequential improvement of 1.11 percentage points from Q4 2024 [2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 47.1% in 2025, with projected net profits of 978 million yuan and a revenue forecast of 54.77 billion yuan [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 10.82 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 124% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, compared to 6 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively [2] Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The company’s snack retail business continues to show strong competitive advantages, with a significant number of stores (14,196) contributing to its market position [2] - The business model is characterized by "low margin, high turnover," with inventory turnover days maintained at 15-16 days, indicating efficient inventory management [2] Future Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 54.77 billion yuan and 19.2 billion yuan, and 67.19 billion yuan and 25.3 billion yuan, respectively, with an upward adjustment in net profit for 2025 to 980 million yuan [2][3] - The company is expected to continue improving its return on equity, with projections of 47.1% in 2025 and 38.7% in 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.0%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, up 3344.1% year-on-year [7] - The snack wholesale business continues to show strong growth, with Q1 revenue of 10.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.6% [7] - The net profit margin for the snack wholesale business significantly improved, reaching 3.85% in Q1, up from previous quarters [7] - The report anticipates continued growth for the company, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 944 million, 1.257 billion, and 1.608 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 221.68%, 33.18%, and 27.85% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is 9.294 billion yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 49.460 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 944 million yuan in 2025, with an EPS of 5.25 yuan [1] - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 69.23 in 2024 to 21.52 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [1] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 13.46% by 2025, with a net profit margin of 1.91% [8]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：政治局会议定调积极，看好饮料旺季催化 市场表现复盘 本周（4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日）食品饮料板块/沪深 300 涨跌幅分别-1.36%/+0.38%。具体板块来 看，本周零食（+4.50%）、软饮料（+2.21%）、其他酒类（+0.06%）、调味发酵品（-0.33%）、肉 制品（-0.53%）、啤酒（-0.72%）、保健品（-1.28%）、白酒 III（-1.75%）。 周观点更新 白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有 ...

Company Management Changes - Yang Hongchun has resumed the position of General Manager at Liangpinpuzi, with a term from April 26, 2025, to November 26, 2026 [1] - Cheng Hong's acting term as General Manager ended on April 26, 2025, after being elected Chairman in March [1][2] - Yang Yinfeng remains a director, having previously served as General Manager from 2017 to 2022 and briefly as Chairman and General Manager until March 2023 [5] Financial Performance - Liangpinpuzi reported a revenue of 7.159 billion in 2024, a decrease of 11.02% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 46 million [7] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 1.732 billion, down 29.34% year-on-year, with a net loss of 36.14 million compared to a profit of 62.48 million in the same period last year [7] - The decline in profits is attributed to a pricing strategy that involved lowering prices while maintaining quality, which affected gross margins [7][10] Market Competition - Liangpinpuzi faces increasing competition from rapidly expanding snack chains such as "Zero Snacks" and "Good to Come," which have significantly increased their store counts and market presence [7][8] - The number of Liangpinpuzi's stores decreased from 3,293 in 2023 to 2,704 in 2024, marking the largest contraction in three years [8][9] Industry Trends - The domestic snack market is projected to grow, with the number of discount snack stores expected to reach 45,000 and a market size of 123.9 billion by 2025 [8] - Liangpinpuzi's sales channels have seen declines, except for group purchasing, which grew by 18.66% to 580 million [9] Strategic Adjustments - The company plans to enhance product quality, optimize product structure, and improve supply chain management in 2025 [11] - Liangpinpuzi has not yet adopted strategies similar to competitors like Three Squirrels, which have successfully navigated market challenges through adjustments in their business models and marketing strategies [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the beverage sector, driven by the upcoming peak season and supportive macroeconomic policies from the central government [2][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the liquor sector, particularly in light of the recent political bureau meeting that indicated a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - For the week of April 21 to April 25, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38%. Notable performances included snacks (+4.50%) and soft drinks (+2.21%), while categories like beer (-0.72%) and health products (-1.28%) saw declines [1][19] Weekly Perspective Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector saw a decline of 1.75%, attributed to the off-peak consumption period and inventory adjustments. However, the upcoming May Day holiday is expected to boost demand for banquet scenarios, aiding in inventory reduction [2][12] - **Beer and Beverage Sector**: The beer sector decreased by 0.72%, but companies like Zhujiang Brewery saw a 5.7% increase in stock price due to better-than-expected Q1 performance. The report anticipates improved demand as the weather warms and consumption policies are implemented [3][13] - **Consumer Goods Sector**: The report identifies opportunities in the snack sector, with a focus on companies that have shown resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming sales season for soft drinks is also highlighted as a catalyst for growth [3][14] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as cyclical stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui Liquor [4][18] - **Consumer Goods**: The report recommends focusing on snacks and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Ganyuan Foods and Yuyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from low base effects in Q2 [4][18] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the snack and soft drink sectors are currently outperforming others, while the liquor sector is under pressure [19][22]

Core Insights - The company "Laiyifen," known as the "first snack stock," has experienced its largest decline in performance since its listing, with a 15.25% drop in revenue for 2024, totaling 3.37 billion yuan, and a net loss of 75.26 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][4][14] - In the first quarter of 2025, Laiyifen reported a revenue of 1.048 billion yuan, down 1.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.44 million yuan, a significant decline of 79.72% [1][4] - Compared to peers like Wancheng Group and Three Squirrels, Laiyifen's revenue and profit growth rates are significantly lagging, despite maintaining a high gross margin of 40% [1][4][14] Revenue and Profit Decline - Laiyifen's main business revenue fell by 16.52% to 3.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 38.81%, down 1.94 percentage points from the previous year [4][6] - The company has seen a continuous decline in revenue since its listing, with 2023 marking the first revenue drop post-IPO, recording 3.977 billion yuan, a 9.25% decrease [4][14] Regional Performance - In East China, Laiyifen's revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, down 14.96%, with a gross margin of 40.76%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points [5][6] - North China saw a slight revenue increase of 3.63%, while South China experienced a significant decline of 22.46% [6] Product Performance - All product categories, including nuts, meat products, and candies, reported revenue declines, with the largest drop in meat products and aquatic products [6][7] - The revenue from nuts and beans was 756.86 million yuan, down 8.11%, while meat products generated 985.54 million yuan, down 17.82% [7] Sales Model Analysis - Retail revenue from stores decreased by 21.39% to 2.02 billion yuan, while e-commerce revenue saw the largest decline of 35.54% [8][9] - The company closed 600 stores in 2024, including 425 direct-operated and 175 franchised stores, indicating a strategic shift in its retail approach [10][11] Market Position and Competition - Laiyifen's market position has weakened compared to competitors, with significant revenue growth reported by Wancheng Group (323.29 billion yuan, up 247.86%) and Three Squirrels (106.22 billion yuan, up 49.3%) [13][14] - The company has opted not to engage in price wars, maintaining a high gross margin compared to competitors, which has led to criticism regarding its pricing strategy [16] Employee and Shareholder Dynamics - The company has reduced its workforce by 39.23% since 2021, with 4,590 employees reported in 2024 [17] - Shareholder issues persist, with the controlling shareholder facing penalties for illegal share reductions, raising concerns about governance [18][19]