Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [4][34]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in. The top liquor companies are stabilizing prices and driving up wholesale prices, which enhances dividend yields and makes them attractive for investment. Long-term, it is recommended to focus on high-quality leading companies with strong performance certainty, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [4]. - In the consumer goods sector, there are high-growth opportunities, with some segments still benefiting from new products and channels. Companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage, which show good growth momentum, are recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - As the Spring Festival approaches, the sales of high-end liquor are gradually increasing, with Kweichow Moutai's wholesale prices showing slight recovery. The price of Moutai's regular bottles has increased by 20 yuan to 1560 yuan as of January 25, indicating a recovery in demand. The sales boost is driven by gift-giving and banquet needs during the festive season, highlighting the essential nature of high-end liquor [5]. - The launch of the i Moutai product has effectively reached new consumer groups, contributing to incremental demand. The bottom of the wholesale price may have been established, reducing downward risks significantly [5]. Consumer Goods Sector - The upcoming IPO of "Mingming Hen Mang" is set to further solidify the duopoly in the industry. The company plans to issue 14.1 million shares at a price range of 229.60-236.60 HKD per share. With over 20,000 stores under its brands, it has a strong market presence, particularly in lower-tier markets. The company reported a revenue of 46.371 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 75.22%, and a net profit of 1.559 billion yuan, up 218.84% [5]. - The introduction of national standards for pre-prepared dishes is expected to accelerate the standardization process in the industry, benefiting leading companies with strong supply chain capabilities. This may lead to increased market concentration as smaller companies face pressure to exit [5].

证券之星消息，1月26日休闲食品板块较上一交易日下跌0.84%，好想你领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4132.61，下跌0.09%。深证成指报收于14316.64，下跌0.85%。休闲食品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300972 | 万辰集团 | 222.60 | 1.41% | 3.22万 | | 7.13亿 | | 300973 | 立高食品 | 47.07 | 1.10% | 3.08万 | | 1.43亿 | | 603517 | ST绝味 | 13.20 | 0.99% | 12.26万 | | 1.62亿 | | 002956 | 西麦食品 | 28.60 | 0.18% | 1.50万 | | 4284.39万 | | 001219 | 青岛食品 | 14.87 | 0.07% | 4.10万 | | 6062.47万 | | 603866 | 桃李面包 | 5.47 | 0.00% | 18.96万 | | 1.03亿 | | ...

2025 年末，我们预计行业的这个门店数，是超过 5.5 万家。那对应市场的零售额，是超 过了 2500 亿元。那零食量贩品类，相比于奶茶，其实更为必选。并且受众也更为的广泛。 那另外，它的主力的市场其实是在下沉的这个市场。我们认为未来的这个空间，可以达到 8~10 万家的这个门店。另外，零食量贩的龙头，也在尝试新的单店模型。那主要是包括 折扣超市的这个业态和便利店的这个店型。那如果未来的这个店型能够进一步跑通，我们 认为量贩业态的这个渗透率，就是在线下传统渠道的这个渗透率的话，有望进一步的提振。 第二个方面就是格局。在 2025 年，我们认为行业进入到了 3.0 的阶段，竞争格局已经非 常明晰。那根据高德地图统计，2025 年末，鸣鸣很忙集团和万辰集团的门店数量分别是 超过 2.2 万和 1.9 万加。那第三名是零食很，零食有鸣，整体的门店数是在 6000 家左右， 但其实和前面两家龙头的这个数量级并不是在一个体量。那其余超过 2000 家以上的这个 门店的数量，基本上就只这个品牌数量的话，基本上只有两到三三家。我们认为整个龙头 的这个竞争的壁垒其实很难被颠覆的。 那同时，零食量贩龙头的这个规模，以及这个品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - Mingming Hen Mang is the largest leisure food and beverage retail chain in China, formed by the merger of "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" in November 2023, aiming to address industry pain points through scale procurement and efficient turnover [4][9] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 39.34 billion and a net profit of CNY 0.83 billion in 2024, with nearly 15,000 stores [4][10] - The leisure food industry is experiencing rapid growth, with Mingming Hen Mang's revenue increasing from CNY 4.286 billion in 2022 to CNY 39.344 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 282.17% [10][13] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 7.45% in 2022 to 9.73% in Q1-Q3 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 1.67% to 3.36% in the same period [10][16] - The report highlights the acceleration of brand consolidation in the snack retail sector, with the top five chain retailers contributing CNY 2.1 trillion in GMV, accounting for 57.1% of the food and beverage industry [17][20] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The retail sector is witnessing a significant increase in store numbers, with major players like Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group expanding aggressively across the country [23] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing with Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group leading the market, holding over 70% of the market share in the snack retail sector [17][23] Financial Performance - Mingming Hen Mang's revenue and net profit for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are reported as follows: CNY 4.286 billion, CNY 10.295 billion, and CNY 39.344 billion for revenue; CNY 0.72 billion, CNY 2.17 billion, and CNY 8.34 billion for net profit, respectively [10][13] - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 46.371 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, surpassing the total revenue of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 75.21% [10][13] Market Position - In 2024, Mingming Hen Mang's GMV reached CNY 55.5 billion, securing a market share of 1.5%, making it the largest leisure food and beverage retail chain in China [17][20] - The report suggests that investors should actively consider opportunities in the snack retail sector, especially with Mingming Hen Mang's upcoming H-share listing on January 28 [17][24]

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业周报（20260119-20260125） 推荐（维持） 白酒减仓至历史底部，餐饮链及节庆食品迎催化 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 联系人：王培培 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 联系人：寸特彬 邮箱：cuntebin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Abstract 摘要 中金研究 2024年12月我们发布了《 休闲食品行业系列三：零食量贩渠道发展复盘及展望 》[1]报告，经历一年发展，行业进入3.0阶段，从"规模竞速"到"质效深 耕"。 点击小程序查看报告原文 零食量贩行业模型效率高且持续扩容，2025年底零食量贩门店超5.5万家。 我们预估2025年底5.5-6万家（零售额预估超2500亿元），中长期零食量贩店有 望达8-10万家。 零食量贩3.0时代格局已基本形成。 零食量贩1.0阶段（爆发增长期）期间呈现区域割据的特点；零食量贩2.0阶段（竞争整合期）2022-2024年市场整合加 速，头部龙头借助资金、品牌和规模等优势加速市场整合；零食量贩3.0阶段行业双强格局已基本形成，进入需门店运营优化和供应链提效的发展阶段。 2025年末鸣鸣很忙集团、万辰集团的门店数量分别超2.2/1.9万家（高德地图统计）。 2024年下半年零食量贩品牌均开始积极拓展品类，尝试运营省钱/折扣超市的新店型。 以现有品类为基础，拓展IP玩具卡牌类、以及短保类的烘焙或乳制 品，以及日化清洁、冻品等家庭刚需品类。品类扩充后对门店GMV有一定拉动但仍未达到较好的盈利模型，后续仍 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities as the peak season approaches [4][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.4% from January 19 to January 23, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.8 percentage points [12][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend, and has returned to relatively high levels compared to recent years [4][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with strong demand for consumer goods, particularly in the snack segment, which continues to show upward momentum [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector is positioned for a recovery as it approaches the peak season, with a notable increase in demand expected during the Spring Festival [4][12] - The sector's current valuation aligns with policy support aimed at boosting consumption, providing a safety margin for investments [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance was weaker than the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like snacks (+6.1%), processed foods (+4.9%), and baked goods (+4.3%) showing relative strength [12][13] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder prices down 13.5% year-on-year as of January 20, 2026 [19][21] - The price of fresh milk was reported at 3.03 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [19][21] Alcohol Industry Data - In December 2025, the production of liquor (65-degree equivalent) decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a total production of 354.9 million liters for the year [42][43] Recommended Investment Targets - Key investment opportunities identified include raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [4][5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end liquor such as Moutai, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales and pricing stability post-Spring Festival [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The high-end liquor segment, especially Moutai, is experiencing a sales boost as the Spring Festival approaches, with expectations of price recovery due to increased demand driven by wealth effects [10][11]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns about post-festival price drops for Moutai are likely to be unfounded, predicting only minor seasonal fluctuations [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the liquor industry is shifting from a pessimistic outlook to a more stable one, with expectations of improved sales dynamics as external constraints on consumption ease [11][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report highlights that Moutai's sales are performing better than previously cautious expectations, leading to a price recovery for both Moutai and newer Moutai products [10]. - It is noted that the market is still wary of potential price declines after the Spring Festival, but historical patterns suggest only minor adjustments are likely [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and market positioning for high-end liquor companies, recommending investments in brands with strong market presence and growth potential [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is seeing a steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-drink channels and soft drinks [12]. - The report suggests that the beer industry's performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and improving dividend yields [12]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from pre-Spring Festival stocking and product innovation, with companies like Qiaqia and Ganyuan expected to show significant profit elasticity due to low comparative bases [14]. - The report recommends focusing on leading snack companies that are expanding their store presence and adapting their product offerings [14]. Beverage Industry - The soft drink sector is currently facing challenges due to seasonal demand fluctuations and competition from ready-to-drink tea brands, leading to a slight decline in overall sales growth [14]. - Despite these challenges, leading brands like Dongpeng and Nongfu are expected to maintain double-digit growth through brand strength and market share consolidation [14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing as restaurant demand begins to recover, with expectations of improved performance in 2026 driven by seasonal effects [15]. - The report highlights companies like Angel Yeast and Qianhe Condiments as having strong growth potential due to favorable market conditions and dividend yields [15].

证券代码：300972 证券简称：万辰集团 公告编号：2026-013 福建万辰食品集团股份有限公司 关于公司 2023 年限制性股票激励计划第二个归属期（第二批次） 归属条件成就的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1、符合本次第二类限制性股票归属条件的激励对象共计 24 人 2、本次第二类限制性股票拟归属数量：26.4293 万股，占当前公司总股本的 0.1399% 3、归属股票来源：公司向激励对象定向发行的本公司人民币 A 股普通股股 票 4、归属时的授予价格：11.32 元/股（调整后） 根据福建万辰食品集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"万辰集团"） 于 2026 年 1 月 22 日召开的第四届董事会第四十五次会议，审议通过了《关于公 司 2023 年限制性股票激励计划第二个归属期（第二批次）归属条件成就的议案》， 董事会认为根据《上市公司股权激励管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"）、 《公司 2023 年限制性股票激励计划（草案修订稿）》（以下简称"《激励计划》" 或"本激励计划"）的有关规定，本激励计划的 ...