Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing cash dividend ratio of China Shenhua and identifies five key reasons for this trend, highlighting the overall potential for dividend increases in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors [4]. Group 1: China Shenhua's Dividend Increase - From 2008 to 2016, the average cash dividend ratio was 39%, which surged to 151% in 2017, followed by an average of 74% from 2018 to 2024 [4]. - The five reasons for the increase in cash dividend ratio include: 1) Low debt-to-asset ratio compared to the industry 2) Reduced capital expenditure in recent years 3) Profit recovery with high retained earnings and low asset impairment relative to profit 4) High ownership ratio by major shareholders with potential for mergers and acquisitions 5) Supportive dividend policies [4]. Group 2: High Dividend Yield in Steel and Aluminum Sectors - As of February 6, 2026, only eight companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors have a dividend yield above 3%, with notable examples including Youfa Group (6.90%) and Baosteel (4.18%) [5]. - The article predicts that if the dividend ratio remains stable in 2025, the projected net profit for that year aligns with consensus estimates [5]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Dividend Potential in Steel and Aluminum - Three key factors are identified that may enhance the dividend potential for steel and electrolytic aluminum companies: 1) Inclusion of market value management in performance assessments for state-owned enterprises, encouraging higher cash dividends [6]. 2) Significant entry of insurance capital into the market, favoring high-dividend assets [6]. 3) Anticipated decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, which may lead to increased cash dividend ratios [6]. Group 4: Analysis of Dividend Capability - Companies with strong dividend potential are characterized by high retained earnings relative to market value, sufficient cash reserves, and a debt-to-asset ratio below 60% [7]. - As of February 6, 2026, only 14 companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential, with top scoring companies identified [7].

点击 最 下方 关注《材料汇》 ， 点击"在看"和" "并分享 添加 小编微信 ，遇见 志同道合 的你 （请添加小编微信，后续会组建 相关微信群 ） 正文 五矿证券 珍惜有限 创造无限 1. 2025年有色金属——关税影响、降息预期与战略金属价值重估 1.1 2025年主要有色金属价格,宏观与地缘政治扰动成为主因 ロ 2025年受到关税和美联储降息预期的波动，以及地缘环境下战略金属政策等影响，有色金属价格除铅、中重稀土基本出现普涨。 ロ 大类涨跌幅来看，贵金属涨幅居前（>100%），小金属涨幅（≈78%，分化明显），工业金属（≈30%）。 ロ 具体品种来看，2025年钨价涨幅领先达到343%，COMEX黄金白银分别上涨81%、178%；铜、锡上涨51%、67%，氧化错较涨 幅达到97%,氧化简跌幅较大。 图表1:2025年有色金属价格涨跌幅与预期差异 珍惜有限 创造无限 图表2：2025年有色金属行业利润（上）、板块表现（下） 3 年度涨幅 收入YOY % 归母净利润YOY% 有色金属板块涨跌幅 40.9 71.72 9.5 SW金属新材料 58.89 8.1 8.24 6.51 51.12 SW磁性材料 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [6]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 5.42% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 28th among 31 first-level industries [12]. - Precious metals, energy metals, minor metals, industrial metals, and new metal materials all experienced varying degrees of decline during this period [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements, with tungsten prices rising sharply by 25.09% over the past two weeks, while other metals like silver and tin saw substantial declines [19][38]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 5.42% from January 26 to February 6, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index [12]. - Precious metals decreased by 2.49%, energy metals by 11.47%, minor metals by 4.25%, industrial metals by 4.29%, and new metal materials by 9.25% [12]. Precious Metals - As of February 6, COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce, up 0.11% over the past two weeks, and up 14.89% year-to-date [20]. - COMEX silver closed at $77.53 per ounce, down 24.92% over the past two weeks, but up 7.28% year-to-date [20]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold due to the current market dynamics [21]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $12,840.00 per ton, down 0.62% over the past two weeks, but up 2.14% year-to-date [29]. - Domestic copper prices averaged 99,560 RMB per ton, down 1.68% over the past two weeks [29]. - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Tongling Nonferrous [29]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten prices rose to 673,000 RMB per ton, up 25.09% over the past two weeks [38]. - Tin prices on LME fell to $47,155 per ton, down 16.69% over the past two weeks [38]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xiyang Tin, Huaxi Silver, and Xingye Silver due to the current market conditions [39]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index reached 265.43, up 11.37% over the past two weeks [52]. - Neodymium oxide closed at 757,500 RMB per ton, up 12.64% over the past two weeks [52]. - Companies to focus on include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Shenghe Resources [53]. Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 420,000 RMB per ton, down 3.89% over the past two weeks [61]. - Lithium carbonate (battery-grade) averaged 134,500 RMB per ton, down 21.35% over the past two weeks [64]. - Companies to monitor include Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium due to the evolving market landscape [64].

Core Viewpoint - The articles highlight the strong performance and growth potential of various companies in the tungsten industry, driven by rising tungsten prices and increasing demand across multiple sectors such as aerospace, military, and renewable energy. Company Summaries - **China Tungsten High-Tech (000657)**: A leading player in the tungsten industry with a complete value chain from mining to manufacturing, benefiting from high self-sufficiency and significant profit elasticity due to rising tungsten prices. The company is positioned well in high-end manufacturing and military applications [1]. - **Xiamen Tungsten (600549)**: A comprehensive new materials leader with a strong presence in tungsten, rare earths, and lithium battery materials. The company is a major APT producer and benefits from dual market demand in tungsten and rare earths, with a clear long-term growth trajectory [2]. - **Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378)**: A private sector leader in the tungsten industry with a complete production system and high resource self-sufficiency. The company is well-positioned in high-end tungsten markets and is expected to see steady profit growth due to rising demand and supply constraints [3]. - **Xianglu Tungsten (002842)**: Focused on deep processing of tungsten, the company has a strong customer base and benefits from rising processing fees alongside tungsten prices. Future growth is expected through technological upgrades and high utilization rates [4]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: A global mining leader with significant tungsten operations, benefiting from high-quality overseas resources and a diversified metal portfolio. The company is expected to see profit growth as tungsten supply-demand dynamics improve [5]. - **Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259)**: A state-owned enterprise with a focus on tungsten and rare earths, benefiting from dual price increases and strong resource integration capabilities. Future growth is anticipated through expanding resource reserves and high-end applications [6][7]. - **Hunan Gold (002155)**: A key mining platform in Hunan with a stable tungsten production and high resource self-sufficiency. The company benefits from rising prices across multiple metals, providing a unique advantage in the small metals sector [8]. - **Antai Technology (000969)**: A leader in high-end refractory metals, focusing on high-value tungsten products for semiconductor and aerospace applications. The company is expected to grow through increased domestic demand and technological advancements [9]. - **Jinmo Co., Ltd. (601958)**: A leading player in the molybdenum industry with significant tungsten operations, benefiting from low-cost resources and a complete production chain. The company is expected to see profit elasticity as tungsten prices rise [10]. - **Dongfang Tantalum (000962)**: A leader in rare metals with a strong tungsten processing capability, benefiting from stable demand in military and aerospace sectors. Future growth is expected from increasing domestic production of high-end tungsten products [11]. - **Xingye Mining (000426)**: A multi-metal mining company with significant tungsten resources, benefiting from price increases and a diversified portfolio that mitigates risks [12]. - **Zhuye Group (600961)**: A veteran in non-ferrous metal smelting with advantages in tungsten recycling and processing. The company is expected to see profit improvements through expanded processing capacity and technological upgrades [13]. - **Zhongkuang Resources (002738)**: A leader in lithium and rare metals with stable tungsten production, benefiting from price increases and a diversified business model [14]. - **Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240)**: A lithium leader with significant tungsten resources, providing stable profits and enhancing resilience against market fluctuations [15]. - **Huayou Cobalt (603799)**: A global leader in cobalt and lithium materials, with a strong tungsten business that supports overall profitability through market synergies [16]. - **Hanrui Cobalt (300618)**: Focused on cobalt and tungsten processing, benefiting from rising demand in high-end manufacturing and renewable energy sectors [17]. - **Xiamen Xinda (000701)**: Engaged in tungsten product trading and supply chain services, benefiting from price increases and a mature supply chain system [18]. - **Aluminum Corporation of China (601600)**: A leader in the non-ferrous sector with a focus on tungsten resource development, benefiting from market dynamics and resource value reassessment [19]. - **Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960)**: A global leader in tin with a strong tungsten portfolio, benefiting from price increases and a comprehensive multi-metal strategy [20]. - **Nanshan Aluminum (600219)**: A leading aluminum processor with a focus on tungsten-related materials, expected to grow through high-end manufacturing demand [21].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic rare earth market is experiencing a price increase, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance, driven by strict production controls and rising demand from various industries [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of February 10, 2026, the average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 850,200 CNY/ton, up by 51,400 CNY/ton; the average price of praseodymium and neodymium metal is 1,016,000 CNY/ton, up by 39,700 CNY/ton; the average price of dysprosium oxide is 1,412,200 CNY/ton, up by 11,400 CNY/ton; and the average price of terbium oxide is 6,234,300 CNY/ton, up by 20,000 CNY/ton [1][4]. - The core category, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, has seen a cumulative increase of over 39% compared to the beginning of the year when it was priced at 610,000 CNY/ton [1][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strong price trend indicates a continued tight supply-demand situation in the rare earth market, reinforcing bullish market expectations [1][4]. - On the supply side, China, as the dominant producer, implements strict total control and export restrictions on rare earth mining, limiting the release of supply capacity and weakening global trade flow, leading to tight inventories in both domestic and international markets [1][4]. - On the demand side, rapid development in industries such as new energy vehicles, military aerospace, and advanced manufacturing has created significant demand for rare earths [1][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The supply-demand dynamics of rare earths are primarily influenced by domestic industrial policies and the rigid demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing, with relatively low correlation to global macro liquidity and risk aversion [2][5]. - The rare earth ETF (516780) saw a strong net inflow of 290 million CNY in a single day, with a trading volume of 428 million CNY, representing a significant increase of over 185% compared to the previous trading day [2][5]. - The ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index, which covers various segments of the rare earth industry, providing investors with effective tools to capture development opportunities [2][5]. Group 4: Key Companies - As of February 10, 2026, the top five constituents of the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index include Northern Rare Earth, Goldwind Technology, Xiamen Tungsten, China Aluminum, and Greeenme, all of which are competitive leading companies in the industry [2][5].

www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 联络人 作者 企业评级部 | 陈田田 010-66428877 | | --- | | ttchen@ccxi.com.cn | | 刘紫萱 010-66428877 | | zxliu@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 中国有色金属行业 中国有色金属行业展望，2026 年 2 月 在矿端供应偏紧、需求韧性较强的背景下，预计 2026 年有色金属行 业保持较高景气度，全球财政与货币政策调整、贸易摩擦、地缘政 治等因素将对行业发展形成扰动，基本金属价格中枢存在上行或高 位震荡预期；加工费低迷、行业竞争加剧令冶炼加工环节承压，行 业利润将进一步向资源自给率高、成本控制能力强的企业集中，整 体信用水平保持稳定。 中国有色金属行业展望为维持稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个 月行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 核心观点 1 2026 年 2 月 目录 核心观点 1 分析思路 2 行业基本面 2 行业财务表现 14 结论 22 附表 23 中诚信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that by 2026, companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are expected to have strong dividend potential, supported by favorable conditions in market value management, high dividend strategies, and declining capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries [1] Group 1: Dividend Potential of Companies - Companies recommended for strong dividend potential include Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), Baosteel (600019.SH), and Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), with China Aluminum (601600.SH) suggested for further observation [1] - China Shenhua's cash dividend ratio increased significantly from an average of 39% (2008-2016) to 151% in 2017, with an average of 74% from 2018 to 2024, driven by low debt ratios, reduced capital expenditures, and high undistributed profits [1] Group 2: High Dividend Yield Companies - As of February 6, 2026, there are only eight companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors with dividend yields above 3%, including Youfa Group (6.90%), Baosteel (4.18%), and Jiuli Special Materials (3.23%) [2] Group 3: Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - Three favorable factors for potential dividend increases in the steel and aluminum sectors include: 1. Market value management being included in assessments, encouraging companies to enhance cash dividends [3] 2. Large-scale entry of insurance capital, making high dividend strategies a core asset allocation choice [3] 3. Gradual decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, allowing for increased cash dividends [3] - A scoring system based on undistributed profits, cash reserves, and debt ratios identifies 14 companies with strong dividend potential, with Hualing Steel and Baosteel scoring highest in the steel sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that by 2026, certain companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are expected to have strong dividend potential, supported by favorable conditions in market value management, high dividend strategies, and declining capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries [1] Group 1: Dividend Potential of Companies - Companies recommended for strong dividend potential include Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), Baosteel (600019.SH), and Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), with China Aluminum (601600.SH) suggested for further attention [1] - The analysis indicates that only 14 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential based on undistributed profits to total market value, cash reserves to total market value, and debt ratios [4] Group 2: Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - Three key factors are identified that may enhance the dividend potential of steel and aluminum companies: 1. Inclusion of market value management in assessments, encouraging companies to increase cash dividends [3] 2. Significant entry of insurance capital into the market, making high-dividend assets a core investment strategy [3] 3. Anticipated decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, which may lead to higher cash dividend ratios [3] Group 3: Current Dividend Yields - As of February 6, 2026, there are only eight companies in the steel and aluminum sectors with dividend yields above 3%, with notable yields from Youfa Group (6.90%), Erdos (4.62%), and Baosteel (4.18%) [2]

Investment Rating - Steel industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] - Non-ferrous industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased dividend payouts in the steel and aluminum sectors, driven by three main factors: the inclusion of market value management in assessments, significant insurance capital entering the market, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the steel and aluminum industries [3][5][29]. Summary by Sections Dividend Potential Analysis - The report identifies that only 8 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors currently have dividend yields above 3%, with notable companies including Youfa Group (6.90%), Ordos (4.62%), and Baosteel (4.18%) [2][22]. - A total of 14 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential, which includes having a high ratio of undistributed profits to total market value, sufficient cash reserves, and a debt ratio below 60% [4][32]. Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - The inclusion of market value management in the assessment of central enterprises is expected to accelerate the realization of dividend potential, as it encourages companies to enhance their market performance and return value to investors through increased cash dividends [3][25]. - The influx of insurance capital into the market is pushing for a revaluation of dividend-paying assets, as high dividend strategies become a core choice for insurance companies seeking stable returns [3][27]. - Capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries are anticipated to decline as the steel industry's ultra-low emission upgrades conclude and aluminum production approaches capacity limits, which may lead to higher future dividend payouts [3][30]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios, specifically highlighting Huazhong Steel, Baosteel, and Jiuli Special Materials as key investment opportunities, while suggesting to keep an eye on China Aluminum [5][34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing short-term pressure due to pre-holiday sentiment, but there are structural opportunities in specific sub-sectors [2] - The global non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a "recovery cycle with supply constraints" from 2026 to 2027, with copper and aluminum prices shifting from supply constraints and loose liquidity in 2026 to demand recovery in 2027 [2] - The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be only 1.7% in 2026, with a supply gap of over 800,000 tons; electrolytic copper supply growth is 2.4% while demand growth is 3.3%, indicating a shift from surplus to shortage [2] Group 2 - Tungsten is expected to see a continued supply-demand shortage due to China's mining control policies, leading to sustained price increases from 2026 to 2027 [3] - Rare earth permanent magnets are experiencing tightening supply-side integration, with improving demand expectations for exports, indicating a fundamental improvement [3] - Cobalt is projected to face a global shortage due to supply reduction policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with strong upward momentum in the short term [3] Group 3 - Lithium is benefiting from the rising demand for energy storage batteries and domestic supply disruptions, potentially at the bottom of its cycle [3] - Nickel is expected to clear supply issues from the second half of 2026 to 2027 due to Indonesia's quota policies, with prices likely to rise if economic recovery boosts stainless steel demand [3] - Magnesium is gaining traction in the lightweighting sector of new energy vehicles due to its higher cost-effectiveness compared to aluminum, indicating improved industry sentiment [3] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) closely tracks the CSI Shenyin Wanguo Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which selects 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]