当传统巨头收缩战线之际，比亚迪以"研发投入连续13年超净 利润"的长期主义，驱动销量跻身全球前五，诠释"技术为 王"的逆袭逻辑。 作者：薛致以 封图：图片资料室 近日，11月产销数据出炉。作为年末冲销量的晴雨表，11月销量是车企全年销量冲刺期的效果显 现，其中中国新能源汽车的月度成绩单再次成为焦点。龙头比亚迪11月单月新能源汽车销量达48 万辆，创下年内新高；此外上汽集团、吉利汽车的新能源汽车销量以及新势力品牌的销量均有不俗 的表现。 在全球汽车产业格局重塑的当下，中国新能源汽车正以前所未有的速度崛起，在全球市场渗透率不 断提升。在这股行业浪潮中，比亚迪的表现尤为突出，其不仅月度销量持续保持绝对领先优势，前 11个月累计销量更是达到418.2万辆，同比增长11.30%，继续保持行业榜首地位。 值得关注的是，在11月产销数据发布前夕，国内外车企相继发布三季度财报。不难发现，以比亚 迪为首的中国车企与全球巨头相比出现业绩分化现象，呈现出"东升西落"的态势。一边是外资巨 头增长乏力，甚至有车企出现利润腰斩，一边是中国车企普遍业绩向好，这不禁让人发问，为 何"比亚迪们"能够逆势保持平稳发展？ 具体来看，财报中一组差异 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is accelerating, with a projected retail market size of approximately 2.25 million units in November, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.7% but a significant increase in NEV sales, expected to reach 1.35 million units, achieving a penetration rate of 60% for the first time [4][3]. - The report highlights the resilience of new energy vehicle sales, with key players showing varied performance. Leap Motor leads with a 75.1% year-on-year increase, while Li Auto experienced a decline of 31.9% [3][5][9]. Summary by Company Leap Motor - In November, Leap Motor delivered 70,327 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 75.1% and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%. The growth is attributed to strong sales of models C10 and B01, with the company expected to continue its upward trajectory as new models are launched [5][14]. Xpeng Motors - Xpeng Motors reported 36,728 deliveries in November, marking an 18.9% increase year-on-year but a 12.6% decrease month-on-month. The company has expanded its charging network significantly, with over 2,840 self-operated stations and approximately 16,000 charging piles [6][14]. NIO - NIO delivered 36,275 vehicles in November, reflecting a 76.3% year-on-year increase but a 10.2% month-on-month decline. The report notes the strong performance of models ES8 and ET5T [6][14]. Li Auto - Li Auto's November deliveries totaled 33,181 units, down 31.9% year-on-year but up 4.5% month-on-month. The company is expanding its charging network, which is expected to enhance competitiveness as new electric models are introduced [9][14]. Zeekr - Zeekr delivered 28,843 vehicles in November, a 6.8% year-on-year increase and a significant month-on-month increase of 34.6%. The report highlights the successful launch of new models, contributing to sales growth [10][14]. Xiaomi - Xiaomi reported over 40,000 vehicle deliveries in November. The new SUV YU7 has been well-received, with significant pre-order numbers indicating strong market interest [11][14]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift towards intelligent driving technologies, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge. The expectation is that advancements in smart driving will lower hardware costs and expand market access, particularly in the sub-200,000 yuan segment [11][12]. - The report suggests that the new energy vehicle supply chain and smart electric growth are expected to strengthen, with a focus on intelligent driving and new energy vehicle components [12].

Core Viewpoint - The market currently holds a pessimistic outlook on the automotive industry's cycle for next year due to expectations of subsidy policy withdrawal, but sales performance may exceed market expectations, presenting investment opportunities focused on expectation recovery, individual stock alpha, and trends in the intelligent driving/robotics/liquid cooling sectors [3][18]. Sales Outlook - Retail sales are expected to grow by 1.0% and wholesale by 4.6% in 2026, with electric vehicle (EV) wholesale increasing by 8% and gasoline vehicle wholesale by 1%. Inventory is projected to slightly increase by 200,000 units by year-end, and exports are anticipated to reach 6.86 million units, a 21% increase. This outlook is more optimistic compared to the market's pessimistic sales forecasts, driven by factors such as lower-than-expected sales in Q4 2025 leading to demand being pushed into the next year, and positive expectations regarding policy support [4][19]. Competitive Outlook - From the perspective of complete vehicles, the market structure for economy and high-end brands is largely established, making it more challenging for second-tier brands to expand. Price pressures are expected to increase due to the industry's shift to "passive inventory accumulation," while policy guidance aimed at reducing internal competition is expected to alleviate some pricing pressures. For components, the slowdown in EV growth will impact revenue and profit margins, alongside fluctuations in raw materials and exchange rates [5][20]. Complete Vehicle Investment - The downward cycle is likely to suppress overall valuations, with three main potential opportunities in 2026: 1) Recovery of pessimistic expectations, driven by catalysts such as better-than-expected sales, policies, and exports post-Chinese New Year, focusing on leading companies like Geely and BYD; 2) JAC Motors, which has less correlation with the downward beta of EVs, showing significant fundamental and valuation elasticity; 3) Scattered opportunities in complete vehicles, such as NIO, which depend on the successful launch of new models and require ongoing monitoring for early identification [6][21]. Component Investment - The growth rate of new energy vehicles is expected to decline from +25% in 2025 to +8% in 2026, indicating that most high-quality components will face revenue and profit margin pressures unless there is an additional order release cycle. Investment opportunities will continue to focus on new industry directions, driven by industry progress and company developments, particularly in intelligent driving, liquid cooling, and robotics. 1) Intelligent Driving: The implementation of L3 standards is expected to catalyze order cycles, with recommendations for Horizon Robotics and attention to Hesai Technology, Supcon, and Black Sesame Intelligence. The rollout of L4 standards is anticipated to create investment opportunities for autonomous driving operators, with recommendations for Pony.ai, WeRide, and Cao Cao Mobility [7][22]. 2) Liquid Cooling: This sector is expected to contribute orders and profits quickly, with automotive component companies accelerating their entry, recommending Minth Group, Yinlun, and Lingyun [8][23]. 3) Robotics: Following recent sector adjustments, the industry is expected to advance next year, creating new investment opportunities, with priority recommendations for adjusted leading companies: Top Group, Minth Group, Yinlun, Double Ring Transmission, and Haoneng [8][23]. 4) Companies with strong performance support due to a relatively large volume of new orders can be considered for low-entry positions, including Minth Group, Haoneng, Aikodi, Jifeng, Xingyu, Yinlun, and Double Ring Transmission [8][23].

Core Insights - The competition in China's automotive market has intensified as 2025 approaches, with leading companies maintaining steady growth while the second-tier companies, including Geely, Changan, and Chery, are engaged in fierce sales battles [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - BYD's sales in November reached approximately 480,000 units, a slight decrease from 507,000 units in the same month last year, with a cumulative sales of about 4.182 million units from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [2] - SAIC Motor's November sales were around 461,000 units, with a cumulative total of approximately 4.108 million units for the first eleven months, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [2] - China FAW's November sales were 306,000 units, with a total of 2.995 million units sold from January to November, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [3] - Geely's cumulative sales for the first eleven months reached 2.788 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 42% [3] - Changan's sales for the first eleven months were approximately 2.658 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 9.25% [4] - Chery's cumulative sales for the first eleven months were about 2.5615 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.1% [5] Group 2: Market Trends - The market share of domestic brands has been expanding, with a market share of 68.6% for domestic passenger cars in October and 65.2% for the first ten months of the year [6] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) continue to be a major driver of market growth, with retail sales of NEVs reaching approximately 849,000 units from November 1 to 23, a year-on-year increase of 3% [7] - The penetration rate of NEVs in the passenger car market reached 61.3% in November, with a wholesale penetration rate of 58.8% [7] - Joint venture brands, previously lagging in the NEV sector, are now accelerating their efforts, with several new plug-in hybrid models set to launch in the coming year [7]

时间来到2025年12月，新能源汽车的市场渗透率已经超过50%。激烈的市场竞争中，头部车企凭借技术、渠道与品牌优势，已包揽超70%的市场份额，将 大部分中小品牌挤压至生存边缘。 图/2025年1-10月新能源车渗透率趋势 来源/互联网 新能源观截图 然而，一些倒闭、停工停产的新造车品牌，竟然还没有放弃"活过来"的想法。 威马、极越陆续官宣新动态，或注册新公司，或开始走法律程序，重整旗鼓；更早之前，高合汽车也通过成立江苏高合公司、重启售后服务体系，在"复 活"之路上迈出实质性步伐。 但不容忽视的是，这些品牌在市场环境更宽松的早年，尚且未能站稳脚跟、跻身行业决赛圈；如今新能源汽车行业的产品迭代速度、技术革新高度已今非 昔比，无论是三电系统的升级、智能驾驶的突破，还是用户对服务体验的要求，都较此前形成代际差距。 在这样的背景下，这些"停摆品牌"想要成功"复活"，其难度之大，可想而知。 1. "死了"又想"活"的新造车品牌们 近期，"死了"又想"活"的新造车品牌们，可谓是动作频频。 天眼查App显示，11月27日，智马行（温州）新能源汽车销售有限责任公司成立，注册资本2亿人民币，经营范围包括新能源汽车整车销售、新能源 ...

近日，随着德国频繁施压欧盟委员会，要求放松或取消原定于2035年停止生产燃油车的禁令，围绕欧洲 汽车业电动化转型的争论迅速升级。 不同于德国车企旗帜鲜明的反对，瑞典车企沃尔沃和极星则强烈呼吁欧盟坚持这一目标，认为德国的举 动不仅会拖慢欧洲电动化进程，更可能把未来拱手让给其他国家。 上周，德国总理默茨公开致信欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，要求在2035年后依然允许生产新的混合动力和 高效内燃机车型。他表示，这符合"技术中立"的原则，也是对现实消费者诉求的回应，当前消费者在购 买电动车时仍犹豫不决。 德国政府的这一立场得到了本国传统汽车制造商的支持，却引发了欧洲其他地区企业及官员的强烈反 对。 欧盟议会绿党报告员迈克尔·布洛斯（Michael Bloss）直接批评道，如果接受德国的诉求，将"给内燃机 发放免死金牌"，并破坏好不容易达成的立法成果。绿党和支持禁令的国家坚信，如果向混合动力再次 敞开大门，就等于向消费者暗示"你不需要购买电动车"，而这种错误信号最终会反过来成为市场放缓的 理由。 极星CEO迈克尔·罗谢勒（Michael Lohscheller）更是毫不掩饰他的震惊："暂停2035（禁令）是一个极度 糟糕的想 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a 0% daily increase, and the shift of positions was completed. With an upcoming major meeting, optimistic expectations provided support for steel prices. However, the fundamentals of rebar did not improve under the situation of weak supply and demand. Steel prices were prone to pressure in the off - season. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a 0.18% daily decline, and the shift of positions was almost completed. Benefiting from the warming market sentiment, the futures price of hot - rolled coil rose oscillatingly. However, the supply pressure remained, demand weakened, the fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force was not strong. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a 0.19% daily decline. Short - term positive factors supported the ore price to return to a high level. However, the demand for iron ore continued to decline while the supply remained high. The fundamentals of the ore market were weak, and the upward driving force was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rates for this year and next year would be 3.2% and 2.9% respectively. The US economic growth rate would decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026. The eurozone economy was expected to grow by 1.3% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The impact of US tariffs on the global economy was becoming more apparent [7]. - As of December 3, among 14 car companies that released their new - energy vehicle sales data for November 2025, BYD, SAIC Group, and Geely Auto ranked in the top three in terms of monthly sales, with 480,200, 209,400, and 187,800 vehicles respectively. 11 car companies achieved year - on - year growth, and 11 also achieved month - on - month growth [8]. - On December 3, the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project, carrying 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore, set sail for China. The project would gradually reach a total production capacity of 120 million tons per year [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,220, and 3,331 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,310, 3,240, and 3,333 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,990, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 40, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,190 [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 797, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803. The sea freight from Australia was 12.24, and from Brazil was 25.30. The SGX swap price was 107.40, and the Platts index was 107.80 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,169 with a 0.00% change, the highest price was 3,174, the lowest was 3,154, the trading volume was 750,667, the volume difference was 246,495, the open interest was 1,297,106, and the open - interest difference was 516,952 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,319 with a - 0.18% change, the highest price was 3,329, the lowest was 3,311, the trading volume was 234,619, the volume difference was - 14,970, the open interest was 542,502, and the open - interest difference was - 87,895 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 799.5 with a - 0.19% change, the highest price was 803.5, the lowest was 794.0, the trading volume was 169,490, the volume difference was 25,635, the open interest was 334,841, and the open - interest difference was - 23,770 [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presented various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [14][19][21]. - Charts about steel mill production were also included, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building materials independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, supply and demand weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 18,800 tons, but the profit of short - process steel mills improved. Demand also weakened, with weekly apparent demand slightly decreasing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern was weak, and inventory reduction was limited. The weekly output increased by 30,000 tons, and the inventory level was high. Demand weakened, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 42,000 tons. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remained weak. The terminal consumption of ore continued to decline, and the profitability of steel mills did not improve. Domestic port arrivals decreased, while overseas shipments increased. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

铭感科技，这家仅成立两年的新锐企业，近期不仅斩获2025高工金球奖——年度（投资）价值奖项，还完成了乔迁扩产，以扎实的技术硬实力与快速 成长势能，成为锂电安全领域的"黑马"。 摘要 在需求端的持续驱动下，锂电产业缺货涨价信号已然显现，新一轮上行周期正式开启。 高工锂电董事长张小飞博士在 2025高工锂电年会上明确指出， 2025年动力电池出货量将首破TWh，未来10年仍有近3倍增长空间，储能电池出货量也将 持续翻倍，仅2026年行业新增有效产能就将超700GWh。 与前几轮周期单纯追求规模增长不同，新一轮锂电产业发展中， "长期主义"被提升至前所未有的高度。 宁德时代董事长曾毓群博士 在展望行业未来十五年发展路径时强调，随着产业规模持续扩大，企业必须认清锂电行业 "重研发、长周期、高投入" 的本质 属性，坚守行业自律，以 长期主义心态深耕技术与产品 ； 亿纬锂能董事长刘金成博士 也直言 "长期主义是锂电池的天生属性" ——动力电池需满足15年车载使用寿命，储能电池更要支撑20年以上稳定运营，短期 投机心态绝无可能做好这个行业。 而践行长期主义的核心前提， 是攻克锂电产业的关键难题：安全 。 在过去几轮产业快速 ...

Core Insights - The November sales data highlights the strong performance of China's electric vehicle (EV) industry, with BYD achieving a record monthly sales of 480,000 units, marking a year-high [1] - BYD's cumulative sales for the first eleven months reached 4.182 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, maintaining its leading position in the industry [1] - A divergence in performance is noted between Chinese automakers, led by BYD, and foreign giants, with the former showing robust growth while the latter struggles [1][4] Sales Performance - In November, BYD's sales reached 480,000 units, while other major players like SAIC and Geely also reported strong sales figures [1] - BYD's cumulative sales for the first eleven months of the year reached 4.182 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [1] R&D Investment - BYD's R&D expenditure for the first three quarters of the year was 43.7 billion yuan, a 31% increase year-on-year, positioning it as a leader in R&D investment among global automakers [1][4] - Over the past decade, BYD has invested over 220 billion yuan in R&D, consistently prioritizing technology as a core strategy [4] - In contrast, traditional foreign automakers like Volkswagen and BMW have reduced their R&D spending, indicating a more conservative approach to innovation [4] Technological Advancements - BYD has introduced innovative technologies such as the Tian Shen Eye driver assistance system and the Super e-platform, enhancing its product competitiveness [6] - The company ranks second globally in electric vehicle battery usage, with a total of 55.1 GWh in the third quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.4% [6] Market Expansion - BYD's energy storage systems have positioned it among the top three globally, with significant projects like the largest energy storage project in Germany [7] - The company has seen a 136% year-on-year increase in overseas sales, reaching 700,000 units in the first three quarters, contributing significantly to its growth [11] Brand Development - BYD's high-end brand strategy has led to rapid increases in sales and market share, enhancing its global influence and technological authority [9] - The U9 Xtreme model has set a world record for electric vehicles, showcasing BYD's technological prowess and elevating the brand's status in the automotive industry [9]

Group 1: Regulatory Standards and Compliance - The EU's NG-eCall standard was updated to align with advancements in communication technology, transitioning from 2G/3G to 4G/5G to enhance emergency response efficiency and societal value [2][3] - The national standard AECS in China is on par with the EU's NG-eCall, with some requirements being even stricter, including support for 4G/5G technology and integration of the Beidou satellite navigation system [3] Group 2: Product Development and Market Position - The company has introduced a 5G-V2X TBOX product to meet the growing demand for smart driving and connectivity, significantly increasing the value per vehicle [4] - The TBOX market is dominated by three types of suppliers: international automotive component suppliers, suppliers with automotive backgrounds, and independent third-party suppliers like the company [4][5] Group 3: Competitive Advantages in eCall - The company was an early entrant in the eCall sector, obtaining the first EU eCall certification in China in 2019 and the new NG-eCall certification in January 2025, establishing a technological lead [7][8] - The company has participated in the development of national standards and was the first to pass the national AECS test, ensuring compatibility with all global emergency call systems [7] Group 4: International Expansion and Revenue Growth - The company's current export model primarily involves domestic manufacturers, with plans to enhance international presence by transitioning from "exporting vehicles" to "exporting technology" [9] - The company has achieved the German VDA6.3 certification, which enhances its credibility and capability to expand its international market share [9] Group 5: Future Development Strategies - The company aims to deepen its core business while exploring new growth areas, including digital energy management solutions and expanding applications of 5G-V2X technology [10] - The strategy includes leveraging existing technological foundations to support domestic and international automotive manufacturers in meeting safety standards [10]