聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-21 下游开工逐步见顶回落 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6835元/吨（+2），PP主力合约收盘价为6400元/吨（-34），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6450元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-35元/吨（-22），LL 华东基差为115元/吨（-52）， PP华东基差为50元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为382.4元/吨（+204.2），PP油制生产利润为-407.6元/吨（+204.2），PDH制PP生产 利润为-376.1元/吨（-21.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为84.4元/吨（+55.9），PP进口利润为-208.9元/吨（-31.3），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 dropped 2.5 percentage points to around 87%, at a neutral level, due to new maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang LDPE 1 line [15] - PP企业开工率 fell 0.5 percentage points to around 83%, at a neutral - low level, with new maintenance devices such as CNOOC Daxie old line [15] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 14, PE下游开工率 decreased 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, packaging film orders are slightly decreasing [21] - As of the week of November 14, PP下游开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly compared with last year [21] Plastic基差 - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are rising, and the 01 contract basis has dropped to 247 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [26] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the methanol price will mainly experience weak and volatile trends this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2000 - 2080 yuan/ton. The mainland market is likely to remain in a stalemate, while the port market may show a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of methanol shows that demand lacks highlights and supply pressure persists. The mainland market is expected to be in a stalemate, and the port market may oscillate strongly at the bottom. The spot price in Jiangsu is 2070 yuan/ton, with a basis of 15 for the 01 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with an increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; due to poor sales, the inventory of some plants in the production areas has accumulated [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of methanol in various regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.06% to 2047 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 1.00% to 1980 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.70% to 2055 yuan/ton. The basis, import spread, and price differences between regions have also changed [8][9]. - **Inventory Data**: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with an increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons [5]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The weighted average operating rate of methanol nationwide decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. - **Profit Data**: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 24 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 3 yuan/ton [20]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. For example, ZPC in Iran has heard to have one unit restored, but it needs verification [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants with supporting methanol production are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last for 45 days [58].

报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward pressure on polyolefins is relatively large, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within the range, with attention to the 6800 support level. The PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with attention to the 6500 support level. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - There are still supply - demand contradictions in plastics, and it is expected to operate in an oscillating manner [9]. - The trend pressure on PP is relatively large, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50]. Summary by Directory Plastic 1. Weekly Market Review - On November 7, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%. The average price of LDPE was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The average price of HDPE was 7550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7335.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.16%. The LLDPE South China basis was 533.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.13%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton (- 4) [8][11]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: On November 7, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton (- 4), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 46 yuan/ton (+7), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 125 yuan/ton (- 3) [18]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline on November 7, 2025 [19][20]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.84 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.04 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 63.70 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1110 yuan/ton (+30) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous month. The profit of coal - based PE was 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from the previous month [27]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 82.59%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 66.07 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.30 tons, a decrease of 1.91 tons from the previous week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many enterprises have completed production or are in the process of production, and some are planned to be put into production in December 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 tons [35]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 49.96%, an increase of 0.43% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.78%, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 32.67%, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33.4%, with a difference of 1.9% from the annual average level. The data of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 8.2%, with a difference of 1.6% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 52.74 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons from the end of last month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38% [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,668 lots, a decrease of 37 lots from the previous week [47]. PP 1. Weekly Market Review - On November 7, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% [52]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP granules, PP powder, and other products showed different degrees of changes on November 7, 2025 [55]. - **Basis**: On November 7, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6706.67 yuan/ton (- 16.66). The PP basis was 243 yuan/ton (+109), and the basis widened. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton (- 26), and the month - to - month spread narrowed [57]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: On November 7, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton (- 26), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 22), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 151 yuan/ton (+48) [63]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.84 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.04 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 63.70 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1110 yuan/ton (+30) [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 559.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 47.09 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135.80 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 77.78%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The weekly output of PP powder was 7.66 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06% [77]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines are in a state of shutdown or maintenance [80]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 53.14% (+0.52). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.46% (+0.26%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.45% (+0.88%), the operating rate of injection molding was 59.13% (+0.07%), and the operating rate of pipes was 37.30% (+0.50%) [82]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 347.69 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.66 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 27.46 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.86 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [87]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 59.99 tons (+0.81%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 5.55% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 7.02% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month [90]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,629 lots, an increase of 60 lots from the previous week [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is changeable, causing greater fluctuations in polyolefins. The decline in crude oil weakens the cost - side drive. With large - scale capacity investment and high output, the supply side faces significant pressure. The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, demand falls short of expectations, and the end of the peak season and insufficient new orders may affect the continuous improvement of subsequent operations. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to run weakly. Futures should be operated bearishly on a single - side basis, and straddle options should be sold [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 470,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from rising to falling. The new Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased production, putting pressure on producers, who have an expectation of active de - stocking. The downstream factory operating rate is also expected to rise, and low prices are more attractive. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 580,000 tons, a decrease from the current period. Upstream enterprises are actively de - stocking, and the Double Eleven e - commerce festival drives downstream demand [6]. - **Supply**: This week, plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Zhongtian Hechuang are planned to restart, and new plants of Sinopec Korea and Zhongsha Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. Coupled with the continuous increase in production from newly - invested plants, the domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. Some producers are still resuming operations, and the estimated loss volume continues to decline. Additionally, the 400,000 - ton/year new plant of Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II will start mass - production and sales soon, so the polypropylene output is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly. The greenhouse film is still in the production peak season, but due to the gradual contraction of demand after the Frost's Descent, orders are mainly short - term small ones. The operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily, but after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profits of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP are slightly in the red, and the loss of PDH - based PP is relatively large. The cost - side support is weakening [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. The price shows a downward trend, and as of November 6th, it was 6,471 yuan. The logic is that the new PP production capacity in 2025 is still large, and downstream demand remains weak. PP is expected to be relatively weak in the medium - to - long - term. The operation suggestion is to hold short positions [7]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - Strategy: Long the L - P spread (on hold). The price shows a volatile trend. For the 2601 contract, as of November 6th, it was 334 yuan. The driving force is not strong, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Production**: The domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The plastic industry has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12.8%. In 2024, the capacity base was 3.571 million tons, and the new capacity was 340,000 tons. In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [6][83][90]. - **PP Production**: The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. In 2024, China's PP realized production capacity was about 3.45 million tons, with a capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the planned new PP production capacity is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume is relatively limited [6][89][91]. 3.5 Demand Side - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly, and the operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily. However, after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations. The report also presents data on the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE and PP, as well as the production and export volumes of related products such as plastics, automobiles, and home appliances [6][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the long holiday, trading in the domestic methanol market gradually weakened, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will have limited fluctuations next week. Inland, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, and the procurement volume is expected to shrink in the later period, with tightened transportation capacity and most traders staying on the sidelines. With large - scale external procurement by CTO plants in the northwest this week, upstream methanol plants have little inventory and no need to destock before the holiday. Without obvious influencing factors, the inland methanol market is expected to have a quiet consolidation before the holiday. In the port area, the short side of the futures still has the upper hand, and the methanol market price is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment before the holiday. There are many variables in October, mainly focusing on whether some Iranian plants will be shut down for maintenance as scheduled, the reduction in shipping volume, and the degree of inventory reduction at ports. With marginal improvement in fundamentals, pay attention to low - buying opportunities in the port market under speculation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - Near the long holiday, trading in the domestic methanol market gradually weakened, with limited fluctuations expected next week. Inland, downstream procurement is expected to shrink and transportation capacity is tight. Northwest CTO plants' large - scale procurement keeps upstream inventory low. The inland market is expected to consolidate quietly before the holiday. In the port area, the futures short side dominates, with prices expected to fluctuate. In October, focus on Iranian plant maintenance, shipping volume, and port inventory reduction, and look for low - buying opportunities [5]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From September 19th to September 26th, the prices in different regions had different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.13%, Hebei decreased by 2.81%, and Fujian decreased by 0.65%, while the prices in Shandong (Lunan) and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [6]. Methanol Basis - From September 19th to September 26th, the spot price decreased by 0.13%, the futures price decreased by 0.25%, and the basis increased by 3 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 15, natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit decreased by 327 [11]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [13]. Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices remained unchanged, and the spread also had little change [16]. Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased by 0.03%, and the import spread decreased by 4 [19]. Traditional Methanol Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from September 19th to September 26th [26]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 29, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% [27]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 92, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% [29]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 2, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% [34]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The production profit increased by 10, and the load decreased by 0.15% to 79.69% [38]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased by 2.78, and in the South China port, it decreased by 3.39 [39]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased by 14.56% to 11332, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% to 0 [44]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, planned maintenance, or experiencing production reduction. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates and corresponding production losses [47]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Some overseas methanol plants are in different operation states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and some plants in other countries are also in normal operation, maintenance, or shutdown states [48]. Olefin Plant Operation - Different olefin plants in various regions have different operation states. Some are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some are in the process of starting up or shutting down. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is in maintenance, while some plants in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions are operating stably [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report - In a context where both bullish and bearish factors coexist, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. The price of methanol is predicted to oscillate, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2330 - 2380 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. MA2601 is predicted to trade in the range of 2330 - 2380 [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started producing on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation later this month [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered its traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have significantly declined [7]. - Coal - based methanol production has a certain profit margin, and current active sales are taking place [7]. - Some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Spot Market - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,285 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 76, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is 676 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The CFR price at the main port in China is 262 US dollars/ton, also unchanged [8]. Futures Market - The futures closing price is 2,361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous period. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9,892, a decrease of 315 from the previous period [8]. Spread Structure - The basis is - 108 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous period. The import spread is - 53 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous period [8]. Operating Rates - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate in Shandong is 68.71%, a decrease of 2.39 percentage points from the previous period [8]. Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, an increase of 62,500 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) increased by 58,000 tons to 949,500 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plants - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, with some being short - term and others long - term [56]. Overseas Methanol Plants - Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, such as normal operation, restarting, or under maintenance [57]. Olefin Plants - Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the context of the contradiction between weak reality caused by high supply and strong expectations, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. Inland prices are expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, while the port market will maintain high volatility and strong linkage, with both ups and downs. Attention should be paid to the restart time of the main olefin plants at the port and low - buying opportunities under market speculation. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2380 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The 2025 - 09 - 12 methanol morning report is from Dayue Futures' investment consulting department, with details of the analyst including name, qualification numbers, and contact information [1]. - The report is not a futures trading consulting service, and its views and information are for reference only [1]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), reduced methanol production in Iran and low port inventory, new product output from a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong, and methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated vessel arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins in coal - to - methanol production and active sales, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: High supply and weak reality coexist with strong expectations. Inland start - up is increasing, and port inventory is high, but there is still some demand expectation before the National Day holiday [5]. - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 87, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 1.2673 million tons, an increase of 122,700 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 87,900 tons to 891,500 tons [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with varying start - up and shut - down times and reasons, including planned maintenance, unplanned shutdowns, and device failures [57]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some overseas methanol plants are under maintenance or have unstable operations, such as some plants in Iran, Qatar, etc. [58]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, and some have plans for production expansion or start - up [59].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃周报 成本端支撑增强，聚烯烃价格重心或上移 20250622 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国，从业资格号:F03100622，交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计：本周，聚乙烯生产企业样本库存量预计：51万吨左右，库存预计由跌转涨，主因市场价格连续推涨， 下游工厂抵触高价，采购有放缓预期；中国聚丙烯生产企业库存量预计：59万吨左右，较本期下降，现货市场偏强运行，下游 存一定刚需消耗，因此预计生产企业库存窄幅下降。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计：本周，涉及中天合创等检修装置重启，新增浙江石化等计划检修装置，预计总产量在60.89万吨，总产 量环比-0.40万吨；中国聚丙烯总产量预估：78万吨，继续增加，延续上升趋势。 ◆ 需求：据隆众资讯统计：预计PE下游各行业整体开工率变化不大，企业下游有少量新单跟进，但下游终端备货意愿有所增强， 市场交投氛围有所好转；聚丙烯消费因进入季节性消费淡季持续转弱。 ◆ 产业链利润：油制PE与PP ...