有色金属周报 20260301 美伊军事冲突开启，关键战略资源+贵金属价值提升 glmszqdatemark 贵金属：美伊交火，刺激避险情绪驱动贵金属价格有望大涨，中长期来继续看央行购金+ 美元信用弱化主线，继续坚定看好金价上行。2 月 28 日美国和以色列正式对伊朗开火，带 动避险情绪升温，利好金价上行；中长期央行购金+美元信用弱化仍为主线，看好金银价格 中枢上移。白银工业需求可能继续受到光伏浆料贱金属化影响，这轮周期使得光伏需求承 压，银浆成本占比飙升，未来贱金属化成趋势。重点推荐：紫金黄金国际、中国黄金国际、 西部黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、潼关黄金、万国黄金集团，建议 关注灵宝黄金、大唐黄金和集海资源等，白银标的推荐兴业银锡、盛达资源。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 202 ...

| . | | --- | | 战略储备需求增加，铜价偏强震荡 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 2 | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 3 | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 第二部分 | 地缘局势紧张，战略储备需求增加 | 5 | | 第三部分 | 供应端 7 | | | 第四部分 | 消费面分析 15 | | | 15 | | | | 18 | | | | 21 | | | | 24 | | | | 26 | | | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 27 | | | 免责声明 | | 28 | 有色金属研发报告 铜 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 战略储备需求增加，铜价偏强震荡 第一部分 铜市场综述 邮 箱 银河期货 第 2 页 共 29 页 有色金属研发报告 铜 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 第一部分 铜市场综述 第 3 页 共 29 页 铜 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 图 1：铜价走势图 图 2：沪铜隔月价差（连一-连三）（元/吨） 图 ...

2月27日，港股三大指数止跌回暖，恒指涨0.95%报26630点，国指、恒科指数分别上涨0.51%及0.56%。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国企指数 | a profit | 8859.49 | +45.20 +0.51% | | 800100 | | | | | 恒生科技指数 | monutin | 5137.84 | +28.51 +0.56% | | 800700 | | | | | 恒生指数 | | 26630.54 | +249.52 +0.95% | | 800000 | ਲ | | | 具体盘面上，昨日领衔大市下跌的权重科技股、大金融股多数反弹上涨，煤炭股午后涨幅进一步加大，生物医药股、钢铁股、电力股、石油股、电信股、影 视股多数表现活跃。航空股全天低迷，三大航空股领跌；半导体存储概念股部分表现弱势，电力设备股下跌，军工股、苹果概念股、建材水泥股普跌。 | 行业热力图 × | 领涨板块 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

2月27日早盘，有色金属板块持续上扬，东方锆业（002167）、翔鹭钨业、章源钨业、宝钛股份、宝武镁业、锌业股份等多股涨停，云南锗业、厦门钨 业、中钨高新涨超9%。 | 财富 | | 有色金属 | | | 년 Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 32977.77 2.90% | | | | | 成份股 | 资金 | 关联基金 | 必读 | 股幅 | 资讯 | | 全部市场(141) × | | 自选 | 最新 (141) ▽ | 龙头(9) | JL | | 1+ હે છે. જી | | 最新 | 涨幅↓ | | 涨跌 | | 东方错业 002167 融 | | 15.58 | 10.03% | | 1.42 | | 规管钨\/ 002842 | | 41.56 | 10.01% | | 3.78 | | 草源铝业 002378 融 | | 40.60 | 10.00% | | 3.69 | | 宝钛股份 600456 融 | | 44.35 | 10.00% | | 4.03 | | 宇武镁V 002182 融 | | 21.79 | 9.99 ...

有色金属周报 20260219 美国非农超预期+春节来临，金属价格震荡 glmszqdatemark 贵金属：美国 1 月非农数据超预期，降息预期回落，美伊谈判取得阶段性进展但未来变数 较大，长期来看央行购金+美元信用弱化主线难以根本性扭转，继续坚定看好金价上行。 美国 1 月非农新增就业 13 万个，显著高于市场预期的 7 万个，失业率降至 4.3%，低于预 期的 4.4%，降息预期回落，美国和伊朗就核问题进行接触，双方称谈判取得进展，美伊冲 突释放阶段性缓和信号，压制避险需求，但未来双方局势不确定较大，中长期央行购金+美 元信用弱化仍为主线，看好金银价格中枢上移。白银价格可能依然走弱，这轮周期使得光 伏需求承压，银浆成本占比飙升，未来贱金属化成趋势。重点推荐：紫金黄金国际、中国 黄金国际、西部黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、潼关黄金、万国黄金 集团，建议关注灵宝黄金、大唐黄金和集海资源等，白银标的推荐兴业银锡、盛达资源。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） ...

【解剖大盘】 布计划以约15亿欧元，相当于122.8亿元人民币的对价收购PUMA的29.06%股份，若交易完成，公司将 成为PUMA的第一大股东。重塑Puma中国业务有望获得更高收益，今天涨超2%。 英伟达即将公布2025财年第四财季财报，华尔街高度期待。市场预期其收入将增长至636亿美元，同比 增长68.3%；不知道这次能否超预期。当然，投资者最关心的是后续情况，因为美商务部官员证实：两 个月了，英伟达H200对华销售为零。AI依旧是冷热不均，软件方向继续承压，但汇聚科技(01729)表现 强劲，公司完成配售1.08亿股，净筹约16.35亿港元，公司是谷歌体系的主力供应商，核心产品为MPO 光纤跳线，受益于谷歌800G/1.6T光模块升级与CPO技术推进，用量与价值占比持续提升。今天涨超 9%。 【板块聚焦】 当前A股的走势明显强于港股，这个也好理解，因为每年的春季行情大家都有预期，节前灰头土脸，节 后就会报复性反弹。港股今天小幅上涨，收盘升0.66%。 据MarketWatch报道，美伊双方谈判代表预计将于周四在日内瓦重启会谈。特朗普周二晚在国情咨文中 再度向伊朗施压，称"我们正在与他们谈判，他们想达成协 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 130,000 jobs in January, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This has resulted in a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening U.S. dollar credit [2]. - The report notes that silver prices may continue to weaken due to pressure from photovoltaic demand and rising costs in silver paste, indicating a trend towards cheaper metals [2]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report indicates that the SW Non-ferrous Index rose by 1.67% during the week, while the COMEX gold price increased by 1.51% and COMEX silver decreased by 0.33% [9]. - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of key stocks, with several companies recommended for investment based on their earnings forecasts and valuations [3]. Base Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in base metal prices, noting that aluminum prices have been under pressure due to high inventory levels and seasonal demand declines as the Chinese New Year approaches [25][26]. - Copper prices experienced volatility, initially rising but later falling due to strong U.S. employment data and cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday [45]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - The report states that gold and silver prices have seen fluctuations, with gold averaging 1101.52 CNY per gram, down 0.83% from the previous week, while silver prices fell significantly [74]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metal prices, with a focus on the potential for price recovery as market conditions evolve [78]. Energy Metals - The report highlights a clear shortage in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, with expectations for price increases post-holiday as demand recovers [9]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to rise due to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore export quota policy [9].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.66% to close at 26,765.72 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.19% to 5,260.50 points. The total trading volume was HKD 2,367.65 million [1] - Tianfeng Securities noted that the market is experiencing high-level fluctuations after previous valuation adjustments, supported by continuous net inflows from southbound funds and structural activity [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Haidilao (06862) led the blue-chip stocks with a 6.19% increase, closing at HKD 17.51, contributing 3.12 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company served over 14 million customers during the recent Spring Festival holiday, a significant increase compared to last year [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included HSBC Holdings (00005) up 5.47% to HKD 142.7, contributing 140.04 points, and Longfor Group (00960) up 4.6% to HKD 10.24, contributing 1.83 points [2] Sector Highlights - Large technology stocks showed mixed results, with Tencent rising by 0.48% and Alibaba by 0.2%. The market saw strong performance in rare earth and tungsten stocks due to rising prices [3] - The Shanghai real estate market's new policies led to a positive performance in property stocks, with Country Garden (02007) up 6.45% and CIFI Holdings (00884) up 6.02% [4] - Consumer stocks, particularly in the restaurant and sports sectors, performed well, with Haidilao and Anta Sports (02020) rising by 6.19% and 2.48%, respectively [5] Consumption Trends - Dazhong Securities reported that the recent Spring Festival holiday showed positive consumption data, indicating a preliminary recovery in the domestic market, particularly in tourism and dining sectors [6] - The report highlighted structural growth opportunities in industries like dining and experiential consumption, supported by potential policy backing and overseas growth prospects [6] Notable Stock Movements - HSBC Holdings (00005) reported a revenue increase of USD 2.4 billion to USD 68.3 billion for 2025, with a net interest income of USD 34.8 billion, reflecting a 4% growth [7] - Green Tea Group (06831) announced a profit forecast for 2025 of approximately RMB 460 million to RMB 508 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.4% to 45.1% [8] - Conch Group stocks were active, with Conch Cement (00914) rising by 5.53% after announcing a plan for significant share buybacks [8]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 0.19%, while the Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index rose by 0.66% and 0.3% respectively, halting the previous day's significant drop [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks showed signs of recovery, with Meituan increasing by 1.6%, and Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com also experiencing slight gains. Tencent hit a recent low during the previous trading session [1] - The real estate sector saw a boost following Shanghai's new housing policy "沪七条," which further relaxed housing purchase restrictions, leading to a rally in domestic property stocks. Notably, Chongqing Steel surged by 27% at one point, ultimately closing up by 8.7% [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector, including copper, aluminum, and gold stocks, was notably active, with Lingbao Gold reaching a historical high. Major players like WISCO Resources, China Aluminum, and China Hongqiao all saw significant increases [1] - The restaurant sector performed well during the Spring Festival, with Haidilao leading the gains among restaurant stocks [1] Weak Performers - Semiconductor storage concept stocks, which had led the market in the previous day, mostly retreated, with Langqi Technology dropping over 7% and Zhaoyi Innovation falling by 4.5% [1] - Other sectors such as paper, automotive dealerships, electric power, water utilities, and automotive stocks showed weak performance [1]

高盛此前指出，继2025年金属市场反弹后，多数大宗商品在2026年初延续了强劲而波动的走势。该行认 为，投资者持续的资产配置调整可能使部分金属(如铜)价格长期处于高位，形成结构性溢价。在宏观与 地缘风险上升的驱动下，投资者分散配置硬资产的意愿已成为本轮商品行情的关键推动力。 本文源自：智通财经网 智通财经获悉，铜业股集体上扬，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨5.6%，报15.83港元；五矿资源 (01208)涨4.19%，报10.69港元；中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨4.65%，报0.18港元；江西铜业股份(00358) 涨3.8%，报46.94港元。 花旗发布研报称，短期内看好铜价，预计未来三个月将触及每吨14,000美元。虽然价格走势难以准确判 断，但认为短期内风险回报偏向看涨，料投资者将趁低吸纳，加上春节后中国供应链补充库存，为铜价 走势提供支撑。花旗认为，铜价下行风险有限，相反看好上行风险，原因是市场对铜价周期性增长持乐 观态度，又因去美元化、货币贬值及资源安全等因素，使其建立更多对实物资产持仓。此外，潜在的供 应进一步受阻亦构成上涨因素。 ...