猪鸡价格冰火两重天，玉米景气继续提升 [Table_Industry] 农业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：猪鸡价格年后冰火两重天。种植：看好种植景气度提升。宠物: 汇率因素影响 短期出口表现，看好国内市场增长。 投资要点： [关注原油价格波动对油脂的影响。 Table_Summary] 投资建议：生猪推荐标的：牧原股份、温氏股份；后周期推荐标的：科前生 物、海大集团。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物、诺普信、国投丰乐，相 关标的：康农种业、苏垦农发、北大荒。宠物推荐标的：乖宝宠物、中宠股 份、瑞普生物、佩 ...

广州番禺11个重大产业项目集中签约。 广州大学城正成为番禺创新发展的"智力引擎"。番禺区委书记黄彪表示，番禺将依托大学城全国高校区 域技术转移转化中心，聚焦新能源动力、智能网联、低空飞行器三大核心领域攻坚突破。在创新平台建 设上，番禺依托大学城511个省部级及以上科研平台、90万平方米广州大学城科技园，并在狮子洋专精 特新集聚区打造产业承接平台，构建起"0到1"创新策源、"1到10"孵化转化、"10到100"能级提升的全生 命周期创新创业链条。在政策扶持上，番禺出台22条精准措施，设立专项创新扶持资金，鼓励企业加大 研发投入、攻克技术难题。 广州番禺启动建设狮子洋智造创新园万兆园区。 2月26日，广州市番禺区高质量发展大会在龙沙港召开，正式启动番禺区第二个"万亩千亿"攻城拔寨计 划，整备1.4万亩土地，推动园区从1.0工业园区向5.0 AI+园区迭代；11个重大产业项目集中签约，涵盖 科研、智能制造、智慧交通、物流商务、医疗保健等多个领域，预计一季度落地产业项目83亿元，20个 项目动工或竣工。 启动第二个"万亩千亿"攻城拔寨计划 大学城成为番禺创新发展的"智力引擎" 南都N视频记者从会上了解到，番禺区首个" ...

农业ETF(516810.SH)持仓生猪养殖、农业化工、种植业等多个细分板块龙头，充分受益反内卷、猪周期 反转、化工周期、种业安全等多重共振，目前估值处于历史低位水平。投资者可以借道ETF布局农业低 位反弹机会，ETF有低门槛、分散风险的优势，同时被动跟踪指数，持仓透明、风格不漂移。联接A： 016077；联接C：016078 近期市场板块轮动较快。东方证券表示，避险情绪助推消费，化工农业仍是重点。在全球不确定性增加 的背景下，粮食安全是国家战略底线。农业板块估值处于历史低位，同时内循环属性较强，具备较高的 安全边际和必选消费的抗通胀属性。 2026年2月27日，A股周期板块再度活跃，农业板块多股走强，截至10:32，农业ETF华夏(516810)上涨 1.25%， 冲击4连涨。持仓股亚盛集团上涨9.97%，利民股份上涨5.28%，立华股份上涨3.29%，牧原股 份，海南橡胶等个股跟涨。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 农业ETF华夏(516810)，场外联接(华夏中证农业主题ETF发起式联接A：016077；华夏中证农业主题 ETF发起式联接C：016078；华夏中证农业主题ETF发起式联接D ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a narrow consolidation, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) declining by 0.52% and a total trading volume exceeding 350 million yuan, while net inflows over the past 60 days have surpassed 2.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai government has introduced new real estate policies, reducing the social security requirement for non-local residents to purchase homes within the outer ring from 3 years to 1 year, and allowing families with a residence permit for 5 years to buy one property without social security [3] - During the recent Spring Festival, there were reports of shortages of premium liquor, with some distributors indicating that they could not meet demand, leading to an increase in prices instead of the usual post-holiday decline [3] Group 2 - The Spring Festival has seen a significant recovery in restaurant consumption, with key retail and restaurant enterprises reporting a daily sales increase of 5.7% year-on-year, and foot traffic in 78 key pedestrian streets rising by 6.7% [5] - The demand for dining experiences during the holiday surged, with Meituan's New Year's Eve dinner reservations increasing by 105% and Douyin's group purchases rising by 185%, indicating strong consumer vitality [5] - The frozen food and seasoning sectors are benefiting from the recovery in restaurant consumption, with B-end product sales increasing due to the resurgence of dining scenes during the Spring Festival [6] Group 3 - The overall consumption trend during the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, showing a division between material and service consumption, with emotional consumption demonstrating resilience [7] - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its essential and domestic demand attributes, showing significant profitability resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of the index [8] - The restaurant supply chain is expected to see improvements in inventory and sales, driven by the strong performance of downstream dining consumption, which is likely to enhance the profitability of leading companies in the sector [6][7]

消息面上，据国信证券晨会纪要显示，今日国内农产品期货多数品种收涨，豆一、豆粕及玉米主力 合约均录得小幅上行。其一，节后下游加工企业陆续复工，纺织企业上调棉纱报价，现货市场交投逐步 回暖，对价格形成支撑。其二，中央一号文件近日发布，明确提出提升农业综合生产能力并强化生猪产 能调控，为市场带来政策预期。此外，国际原油价格在春节期间走强，通过化肥、农药等成本链条传导 至农业生产环节，也对部分品种形成外部带动。 国信证券指出，年内肉奶周期有望共振反转，生猪价格在中长期将受行业反内卷支撑，原奶或迎来 拐点；同时玉米供需平衡表收缩提供底部支撑，橡胶短期受益石化链涨价，中期景气看好。 盘面上，两市窄幅震荡，农业上涨。相关ETF方面，农业ETF天弘（512620）标的指数盘中涨 1.14%，成交额达295.65万元；换手率达0.45%。成分股中，盐湖股份、安迪苏涨超5%，藏格矿业、莱 茵生物、新洋丰等多股跟涨。 农业ETF天弘（512620）最近30个交易日累计获资金净流入2.10亿元。截至2026年02月25日，该基 金最新规模为6.45亿元，再创上市以来新高，为沪市同标的第一。 农业ETF天弘（512620）紧密跟踪中证 ...

2025年来，伴随海外流动性宽松以及国内"反内卷"政策等因素的推动，资源品涨价成为资本市场的一条 重要投资线索。Wind数据显示，截至2月13日，申万有色金属指数和化工行业指数近1年分别上涨 106.69%、47.15%，也带动作为周期资源品价格传导"最后一环"的农产品涨价预期持续发酵。记者发 现，景顺长城正在发行农产品相关主题ETF——农牧渔ETF景顺（认购代码：560213），该产品跟踪中 证全指农牧渔指数，全面网罗农牧渔核心标的，为投资者提供布局农牧渔板块的便捷工具。 涨价周期叠加"反内卷"，有望对农产品价格形成支撑 农产品价格上涨的预期并非空穴来风，背后有着周期更迭的规律。紫金天风期货研究表明，过往的资源 品涨价大多数情况遵循"贵金属先动，再按照从工业金属到能源化工以及农产品"的顺序，往往由农产品 来完成收尾。本轮资源品行情正处于"贵金属领涨、工业金属跟随、能源化工逐渐从底部起势"的阶段， 若涨价潮持续发酵，最终有望传导到农产品。 而说到周期，农业自身也存在明显的周期属性，每隔2-3年会迎来一轮反弹。以中证全指农牧渔指数为 例，在2016年2月至2016年8月、2018年11月至2019年5月、202 ...

Group 1: Agriculture Industry Insights - The domestic pet consumption market is evolving from basic needs to emotional narratives, driving upgrades in pet food and medical services, indicating a new growth phase for the industry [6] - The USDA's February report predicts a stable beef price outlook for 2026, with increased global soybean ending stocks due to South American production [9][11] - The domestic pet medical market is expected to expand significantly, driven by pet aging and the need for better healthcare services, with a low current chain rate indicating room for consolidation [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Services Industry Strategy - The Spring Festival holiday data shows a 9.6% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow, indicating strong demand for travel and services [14] - Hotel industry performance improved significantly during the holiday, with a 30.7% increase in REVPAR, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [14] - The domestic retail and catering sectors saw an 8.6% increase in average daily sales during the holiday, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [14] Group 3: Automotive Industry Analysis - The report highlights Sensata Technologies as a leading global supplier in automotive exterior parts, benefiting from a diversified product range and a strong cash flow for R&D [16] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing electric vehicle market, with significant revenue expected from battery box sales in Europe [17] - Sensata is expanding into new sectors such as robotics and liquid cooling, indicating a strategic diversification of its product offerings [18] Group 4: Financial Engineering and Investment Value - The report emphasizes the potential of the non-ferrous metals sector, with macroeconomic conditions favoring price recovery and demand growth driven by emerging industries [19][20] - The Southern China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, with strong liquidity and a comprehensive product line from a leading fund manager [22] - The index's performance is expected to outperform the broader market, supported by strong earnings growth from major companies in the sector [21]

从资金流向上来看，当日宠物经济板块主力资金净流出4523.04万元，游资资金净流出469.16万元，散户 资金净流入4992.2万元。宠物经济板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，2月25日宠物经济板块较上一交易日上涨0.8%，海大集团领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4147.23，上涨0.72%。深证成指报收于14475.86，上涨1.29%。宠物经济板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly after four consecutive declines, with the consumption ETF Huatai (159268) rising nearly 1% and trading volume reaching approximately 600 million yuan [1] - Major component stocks showed positive performance, with Haidilao increasing nearly 6%, Anta Sports rising over 3%, and China Duty Free and Mengniu Dairy both up over 1% [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - Shanghai's five departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and housing provident fund loan policies, effective from February 26, 2026 [3] - A recent meeting emphasized the importance of supporting local and enterprise initiatives to explore new growth points, particularly in the silver economy and elderly care services [3] Group 3: Consumer Trends - During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, an increase of 95 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3] - The consumption sector in A-shares rebounded after three consecutive declines, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) rising over 1% and net inflows exceeding 48 million yuan in the past five days [3] Group 4: Service Consumption Insights - The hotel industry saw a significant increase in revenue per available room (REVPAR) by 30.7% during the Spring Festival week compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [6] - Hainan's duty-free shopping during the Spring Festival saw a 19% increase in spending and a 24.6% increase in visitors compared to the same period last year [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The focus on expanding domestic demand is becoming a long-term strategy for China's economic growth, with an emphasis on improving residents' income and enhancing service consumption [9] - Signs of recovery in domestic demand are evident, with consumer confidence stabilizing and an increase in disposable income growth rates [10] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization after years of decline, with recent policy changes aimed at improving market conditions [11]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a continued oscillating market pattern, suggesting that the index's upward movement driven by position recovery does not alter the overall oscillating trend [2] - It advocates for a strategic focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors, as they are expected to perform well in the current market environment [2][3] Market Strategy - The report notes that the index is currently at a midpoint of its oscillation range, recommending an active adjustment of portfolio structures to include mid-cap blue-chip stocks [2] - It highlights that the recovery of market positions post-holiday indicates a clear shift in fund allocation towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks, with cyclical manufacturing sectors showing stronger performance compared to technology growth sectors [2] Industry Strategy - In the agricultural sector, the report suggests that domestic companies must expand into international markets to overcome growth limitations, emphasizing the importance of product and technology exports, asset investments, and mergers/joint ventures [3] - Successful companies in this sector are characterized by strong core product advantages, comprehensive industry chain layouts, and effective local market integration [3] Thematic Strategy - The rare earth sector is projected to experience a dual boost in profitability and valuation, with expectations of rising rare earth prices due to sustained demand and supply-side improvements [4] - The report underscores the strategic value of rare earths in the context of increasing geopolitical uncertainties, suggesting that domestic rare earth companies may benefit from accelerated asset consolidation [4]