Core Viewpoint - The ongoing impact of Trump's tariff policy is leading to an inevitable price increase in the U.S. consumer market, affecting various well-known companies across different sectors [1]. Group 1: Retail Sector - Walmart announced a price increase in mid-May due to anticipated tariff impacts, with CEO Doug McMillon stating that the company cannot absorb all the cost pressures given the thin profit margins in retail [2]. - CFO John David Rainey indicated that consumers might see price hikes as early as the end of May, prompting a strong reaction from President Trump, who urged Walmart to stop using tariffs as an excuse for price increases [2]. Group 2: Luxury and Toy Industries - Ralph Lauren plans to raise prices more significantly than originally intended to offset tariff impacts, with increased price hikes for both the fall and spring collections [3]. - Mattel, a toy manufacturer, announced price increases for some products sold in the U.S., citing the macroeconomic environment and evolving tariff situation, while also suspending its full-year financial guidance [3]. Group 3: Automotive and Sportswear Industries - The automotive sector is feeling the pressure, with Volvo's CEO stating that customers would bear a significant portion of the increased costs if tariffs on EU imports are implemented [4]. - Subaru of America and Ford have both announced price increases for various models in response to current market conditions and tariffs [4]. - Adidas and Nike are also raising prices, with Adidas' CEO noting that higher tariffs will ultimately increase costs across their product range in the U.S. [4]. Nike is set to increase prices on adult apparel and footwear, aligning with the broader trend in the industry [4].

Core Insights - Swiss brand On is emerging as a global challenger in the sportswear market, reporting a net sales increase of over 40% to 726.6 million Swiss francs (US$869 million) for the three-month period ended March 31 compared to the previous year [1] - The brand has successfully captured market share from established competitors like Nike and Adidas through innovative product designs and favorable market timing [1][2] - Nike and Adidas still hold a combined 58% of global market share, while On accounts for less than 3%, but On's earnings growth rate has outpaced both companies in recent quarters [3] Company Performance - On's initial success was driven by the unique aesthetic of its shoes, which stood out in the market [2] - The company benefited from a shift in retailer focus towards emerging, high-growth brands during the years following its 2021 IPO [3] Competitive Landscape - Nike is currently implementing a turnaround plan under new CEO Elliott Hill, which could present challenges for On [3] - The sportswear industry, including On, faces uncertainty regarding tariffs, particularly as 90% of On's sneakers are manufactured in Vietnam, which could be subject to a 46% import duty [4]

Core View - The company experienced a sales drop of 7% YoY in FY25, with net profit declining by 42% YoY, missing estimates due to weaker GP margin and higher finance costs, although the dividend payout ratio was raised to 135%, indicating strong cash flow and a potential decent yield in FY26E [2][4][6] Financial Performance - FY25 sales amounted to RMB 27.0 billion, aligning with estimates, while net profit was RMB 1.3 billion, missing estimates by 7% and 16% [2] - The dividend payout ratio increased to 135%, exceeding the estimated 100%, resulting in dividends being approximately 30% higher than estimates [2] - Cash and cash flow increased by 32% and 20% YoY, respectively, indicating a healthy financial position [2] Sales and Market Trends - Sales trends in 1Q26E are expected to mirror those in 4Q25, with management noting a similar retail sales trend and e-commerce sales growth outperforming offline sales [3] - The company anticipates a flattish net profit in FY26E, focusing on profit over sales and efficiency gains, despite expected pressure on GP margin due to slow new product launches and a promotional industry environment [4][5] Guidance and Outlook - The company is targeting a small increase in GP margin, driven by positive momentum from Adidas in mainland China, despite challenges from a changing channel mix and promotional pressures [4] - A high payout ratio of over 100% is still feasible, with a forecasted yield of around 9% for FY26E, despite anticipated sales pressures from store closures and a sluggish turnaround of Nike [5] Valuation and Rating - The target price has been trimmed to HK$ 3.62, based on a 16x FY26E P/E, slightly above the 5-year average of 14x, reflecting revised net profit estimates down by 27% and 24% for FY26E and FY27E [6] - The stock is currently trading at 14x FY26E P/E, in line with its 5-year average, and the BUY rating is maintained due to strong cash flow and high dividend yield potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - Adidas and Puma are expected to increase prices for running shoes and sportswear in the U.S. following Nike's announcement of price hikes due to rising costs from U.S. tariffs on imports [1][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Reactions - Nike plans to raise prices by up to $10 for shoes priced over $150, while keeping prices stable for items under $100 [1]. - Adidas and Puma have indicated they will wait to see how competitors respond before making any pricing decisions [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that when a leading brand like Nike adjusts prices, competitors typically follow suit shortly thereafter [6]. Group 2: Tariffs and Manufacturing Concerns - President Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on all imports, with a higher 30% tariff on China, and a potential 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam looming [5][12]. - The tariffs are expected to impact all sportswear brands, not just Nike, as they navigate increased costs [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Demand - U.S. consumer sentiment has declined, with inflation expectations rising, which may affect consumers' willingness to pay higher prices [9]. - Adidas has seen a surge in sales from trendy vintage shoes, suggesting it may have more flexibility to raise prices compared to Puma, which has experienced slowing sales [8][12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Puma aims to sell 4 million to 6 million pairs of its $100 Formula 1-inspired Speedcat sneaker this year, but sales have been slower than expected, raising questions about price increases [13]. - Other brands, such as On, are also planning to raise prices, indicating a broader trend in the industry towards higher pricing amidst changing market conditions [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 27.01 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, with a gross margin of 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points due to inventory clearance and increased promotional efforts [1] - The company achieved a cash dividend ratio of 135%, significantly exceeding expectations, benefiting from proactive inventory management [2] - The company maintains strong partnerships with major brands like Nike and Adidas, with expectations for improvements in the new fiscal year following management changes at Nike [3][4] Financial Summary - For FY2025, the company expects revenue to decline by 6.64% to 27.01 billion, with a projected recovery starting in FY2026 with a revenue increase of 3.82% [5] - The forecasted net profit for FY2026 is expected to rise by 36.03% to 1.75 billion, with further growth projected in subsequent years [5] - The company’s cash flow from operations increased by 20% year-on-year to 3.76 billion, indicating healthy cash flow management [2]

Core Insights - The rise of Birkenstock shoes, often referred to as "ugly shoes," has become a new favorite among the middle class, with significant social media engagement, including over 1.09 million posts and 1 billion views on Xiaohongshu [1][7] - Birkenstock shoes are characterized by their comfort and functionality, appealing to a generation that prioritizes ease over traditional aesthetics [4][12] - The brand has seen a surge in popularity, with sales figures indicating nearly 24 million pairs sold annually in the UK and a strong presence in the Chinese market, where it has consistently ranked in the top 12 for sales on Tmall [7][5] Market Trends - The trend towards comfort has led to a broader acceptance of casual footwear, with various brands launching their own versions of comfortable sandals and slides, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [19][23] - Birkenstock's market value has skyrocketed, surpassing $10 billion shortly after its IPO, reflecting the brand's strong market position and consumer demand [5][10] - The emergence of a "slouchy old money" aesthetic has made Birkenstock shoes a staple in modern fashion, blending comfort with a sense of understated elegance [18][4] Consumer Behavior - Younger consumers are increasingly rejecting the notion of suffering for beauty, favoring products that offer comfort without compromising style [19][21] - The popularity of Birkenstock shoes is not just limited to casual settings; they are being integrated into various aspects of daily life, from work to outdoor activities, showcasing their versatility [10][16] - Social media has played a crucial role in shaping consumer perceptions, with platforms like Xiaohongshu driving the narrative around Birkenstock as a fashionable yet comfortable choice [1][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese stock market is expected to rise further due to reduced opportunity costs for investors and stable policy continuity [1][2] - The A/H shares are favored, particularly in the financial, technology, and certain cyclical sectors [2] - The adjustment in the stock market during March-April is seen as a significant turning point, indicating reduced investor concerns about US-China competition and a more favorable environment for investment [2] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation in the US is not yet fully realized, with April inflation data showing no immediate pressure from tariffs [7] - The reduction of tariffs is expected to delay any rebound in US inflation, although the risk of "stagflation" remains a concern [7] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing limited short-term adjustment space due to a supportive liquidity environment, with a focus on mid to long-term economic narratives [9][10] - The recent easing of tariffs is expected to create structural opportunities in convertible bonds, particularly for technology and domestic demand sectors [13][14] Group 4 - The easing of tariffs is beneficial for the electronics sector, with expectations of a significant innovation year for the supply chain, particularly for Apple products [17][18] - The communication sector is also expected to benefit from reduced tariffs and strong overseas AI demand, maintaining a positive outlook for companies with significant overseas operations [21][22] Group 5 - The machinery sector is poised for growth due to reduced tariffs, benefiting both consumer-grade equipment exporters and engineering machinery through global supply chain restructuring [24][25] - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see improved market confidence and valuation recovery due to the reduction of tariffs, although long-term impacts will depend on overseas market fluctuations [28][30]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GMV of $1,240 million, representing a 34% year-over-year increase, and revenues of nearly $190 million, up 30% year-over-year [11][28] - Adjusted gross profit for Q1 was $86.3 million, a 31% increase from last year, with adjusted EBITDA of $31.6 million, up 48% year-over-year, resulting in a 16.6% margin [11][31] - The net loss for the quarter was $17.9 million, compared to a net loss of $32.1 million in the same period last year [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Service fees revenue increased by 23% to $84 million, while fulfillment services revenue rose by 36% to $105.9 million [28] - The growth in fulfillment revenue was positively impacted by GMV mix, while service fees were affected by the bankruptcy of Ted Baker UK [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that U.S. inbound GMV, which represents approximately 12% of overall GMV, may be negatively impacted by significant retail price increases due to high tariffs [13][88] - The company launched with several new brands across various markets, including luxury brands in Europe and sports brands in Asia Pacific [23][24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company signed a new three-year strategic partnership agreement with Shopify, transitioning from exclusivity to preferred provider status, which is expected to enhance commercial terms and streamline operations [18][20] - The company is focusing on developing new capabilities to help merchants navigate complex international trade dynamics, viewing current uncertainties as opportunities for growth [15][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about maintaining full-year guidance for 2025 despite geopolitical uncertainties, citing no clear directional impact from recent trade tariff changes [34][36] - The company expects to achieve GAAP profitability starting in Q2 2025, as the amortization of Shopify warrants will be completed [25] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $445 million in cash and cash equivalents, with free cash flow used in Q1 amounting to $72.6 million [32][33] - The company is experiencing strong demand for its services, with dozens of brands going live during Q1 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Macroeconomic commentary and guidance adjustments - Management acknowledged greater uncertainty in the geopolitical environment but maintained full-year guidance, noting that same-store sales are slightly lower than the multi-year average [41][42] Question: Shopify partnership renewal and managed markets expansion - Management confirmed that the transition to preferred provider status allows for exclusive features and improved commercial terms, maintaining confidence in competitive positioning [44][45] Question: Trends in GMV and pricing changes - Management noted pockets of softness in certain merchants trading high shares of goods from China or Hong Kong but emphasized no clear directional impact overall [51] Question: NDR expectations and large enterprise merchant ramp-up - Management indicated that while same-store sales are slightly lower, large new merchants are ramping up positively, aligning with expectations [56][57] Question: Impact of FX and specific client issues - Management reported that while there were some changes in FX, the impact from the Marks and Spencer cyber attack was partial and not material for Q1 [60][61] Question: Managed markets and payment changes - Management confirmed that future releases will include changes to payment processing, which will impact revenue recognition but is expected to enhance overall adoption [64][66] Question: Margin trajectory and free cash flow expectations - Management expects gross margins to be slightly higher for the remainder of the year, with strong free cash flow conversion anticipated from adjusted EBITDA [70][71] Question: Interest in new offerings like 3B2C - Management reported high interest in the new 3B2C offering, with several merchants already in the project stage for upcoming launches [99][100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GMV of $1,240 million, up 34% year over year, and revenues of nearly $190 million, up 30% year over year [10][27] - Adjusted gross profit for Q1 was $86.3 million, up 31% from last year, with an adjusted EBITDA of $31.6 million, up 48% compared to the same quarter last year, resulting in a 16.6% margin [10][29] - The net loss for the quarter was $17.9 million, compared to a net loss of $32.1 million in the year-ago period, primarily driven by amortization expenses related to the Shopify warrant [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Service fees revenue increased by 23% to $84 million, while fulfillment services revenue rose by 36% to $105.9 million [27] - The growth of fulfillment revenue was positively impacted by GMV mix, while service fees were affected by the bankruptcy of Ted Baker UK and the GMV mix share of larger merchants [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that U.S. inbound GMV, which represents approximately 12% of overall GMV, may be negatively impacted by significant retail price increases due to high tariffs and the removal of the import de minimis [12][30] - The company has seen pockets of softness in trading, particularly with merchants trading high shares of goods from China or Hong Kong into the U.S. [48] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company signed a new three-year strategic partnership agreement with Shopify, which replaces prior agreements and aims to streamline operations and enhance merchant experiences [16][19] - The company is focusing on developing new capabilities to help merchants navigate the complexities of international trade, including a new 3B2C offering to mitigate tariff impacts [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term growth potential despite current uncertainties in the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, reiterating full-year guidance for 2025 [15][32] - The company expects to move to GAAP profitability starting in Q2, as the amortization of the majority of the Shopify warrants will be completed [24] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $445 million in cash and cash equivalents, with free cash flow used in Q1 amounting to $72.6 million [30] - The company is maintaining its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting GMV in the range of $6.19 to $6.49 billion, representing a 30.5% annual growth rate at the midpoint [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of macroeconomic conditions on guidance - Management acknowledged greater uncertainty in the geopolitical and macro environment but maintained full-year guidance, noting no clear trends in trading patterns [38][76] Question: Changes in Shopify partnership and managed markets - The transition from exclusivity to preferred provider status with Shopify is expected to provide flexibility for merchants while maintaining competitive advantages [41][74] Question: Observations on GMV trends and pricing changes - Management noted pockets of influence but no clear directional impact on GMV trends, with some softness observed in certain merchants trading high shares of goods from China or Hong Kong [48][56] Question: Expectations for service fee take rates - Management indicated that the first quarter would serve as a good modeling benchmark for service fee take rates, impacted by the loss of Ted Baker and a higher share of larger merchants [82] Question: Interest in new 3B2C offering - There is significant interest in the 3B2C solution, with merchants already in project stages expected to launch soon [97]

Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a main business revenue of 419,163.57 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 36.54% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 38,099.86 million RMB, up 229.52% year-on-year [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 29,105.10 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 109.67% [9] Group 2: Market and Industry Outlook - The global luggage market is expected to reach 170.2 billion USD in 2025, growing by 6.1% [6] - The Chinese luggage market is projected to reach 232.7 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [6] - The global apparel market is anticipated to reach 1,509.9 billion USD in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.1% [6] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on high-quality customer strategies in its manufacturing segment, aiming to expand capacity and explore new production areas [7] - Plans to enhance digitalization, automation, and intelligent manufacturing capabilities are underway to improve operational efficiency [7] - The company aims to strengthen its brand through innovative product design and expanding sales channels [7] Group 4: Shareholder Engagement - The company is considering various methods to enhance investor relations and market recognition, including potential stock buybacks and roadshows for institutional investors [6][7] - There is an ongoing evaluation of shareholder welfare programs, such as customized gifts to enhance engagement and brand recognition [10][12]