Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Securities highlights a surge in data center construction driven by computing power, with North America and China identified as the key growth regions for global data center expansion [1][2] - North American AI giants and Chinese internet companies are the primary drivers of this expansion, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly [1] - The report anticipates a rebound in domestic demand in China after a temporary slowdown due to restrictions on the import of computing power cards [1] Demand Side - The construction boom in data centers is primarily fueled by the demand for computing power, leading to a significant increase in orders for companies within the industry [1] - Capital expenditures for North American leading companies are projected to increase from $24.1 billion in Q2 2023 to $76 billion by Q3 2025, while Chinese major firms are expected to reach a peak of 77.2 billion yuan in Q4 2024 [1] - The electricity demand from data centers in the U.S. is expected to account for 6.7%-12% of total electricity demand by 2028 [1] Supply Side - North America faces challenges such as aging power grids and outdated generation equipment, which are exacerbated by energy transition issues, leading to increased electricity prices [2] - In China, the main constraints are the reduction in imports of computing power cards and overseas equipment, making domestic substitution crucial [2] - The supply-demand dynamics in China are expected to shift towards demand-driven by 2026, while energy constraints in North America are likely to persist [2] Key Investment Directions - In the gas turbine segment, focus on upstream components (e.g., Yingli Co., Ltd.), HRSG component companies, domestic substitution targets (e.g., Shanghai Electric), and terminal service providers (e.g., Jereh Group) [3] - In the diesel generator segment, domestic companies are expected to benefit from delivery speed advantages, with attention on domestic substitution (e.g., Weichai Heavy Machinery) and overseas expansion (e.g., KOTAI Power) [3] - In the cooling segment, the increase in single rack power is driving the shift of liquid cooling from "optional" to "essential," leading to a significant rise in mechanical equipment spending [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 2025年12月23日 制造成长周报（第 39 期） 优于大市 何小鹏称人形机器人是巨头竞争，持续关注 AI 基建燃机及液 冷投资机会 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-何小鹏：人形机器人将是巨头的竞争：2025 年 12 月 17 日，小鹏汽 车 CEO 何小鹏在微博发文称，人形机器人将来会是巨头的竞争，而不同的专 用机器人则会有大量不同领域的选手，且会有非常多的成功机会。 事件 2-万泽航空荣获广瀚燃机"金牌供应商"称号：2025 年 12 月 19 日， 万泽航空在广瀚燃机年度供应商评价中荣获"金牌供应商"称号。 人形机器人点评：人形机器人通用化难度大，我们认为未来一段时间机器人 可能会以专用机器人为主，各细分领域均有望出现龙头；同时各产业链也将 出现各自的领先企业。未来在大模型等技术逐步成熟后通用机器人有望在消 费领域和部分工业领域取代专用机器人。我们持续看好人形机器人的长期投 资机会，建议从价值量和卡位上把握空间&确定性，从股票弹性上寻找增量 环节。1）确定性：特斯拉产业链核心供应商或者实力强、卡位好的公司， 重点关注【飞荣达】【龙溪 ...

行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 2025 年 12 月 22 日 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 基本面筑底，行业进入配置周期 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 52 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 1.53%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 4.05%，同期上证综指上 涨 0.03%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，创业板指下跌 2.26%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 1.53%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 11 位。2、从我们构建 的军工集团指数变化来 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [6][24]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry has shown resilience, outperforming the broader market indices during the recent period [7]. - The report highlights significant stock performance within the defense sector, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Xicai Testing (+51.37%) and Western Materials (+30.38%) [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in the aerospace engine and fuel market, as well as advancements in unmanned equipment and PEEK materials [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Defense and Military Market Review (2025/12/12-2025/12/19) - The China Securities Military Industry Index rose by 1.81% to 12,826.4 points, while the China Defense Index increased by 3.34% to 1,720.65 points. The Shenwan Defense and Military Industry Index gained 1.53% to 1,813.19 points [1][15]. - In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.03%, the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.26% [1][15]. 2. Key Announcements in the Military Industry - Company "Qiyi Er" plans to acquire a 52.4596% stake in Fangzhou Technology for RMB 339.1965 million and intends to increase its stake to 60% post-transaction [3][22]. - "Andavil" received approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for a stock issuance to specific investors, meeting all necessary conditions [3][22]. - "AVIC Chengfei" is set to sign an investment cooperation agreement for a new aerospace equipment assembly base project [3][22]. 3. Key Industry News - The U.S. has approved a military sale to Taiwan worth over $11.1 billion, marking the largest single military sale to Taiwan in history [10][11]. - Germany's defense ministry confirmed a military procurement budget of approximately €50 billion [10]. - The U.S. has also approved a military sale to Japan, providing technical support for the Aegis system [10].

Group 1: Market Strategy and Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the market is entering a cyclical transition, similar to Japan in 1978, with a recommendation to continue investing in sectors that are expected to reach new highs [1][10] - The anticipated "spring rally" in the A-share market is supported by favorable economic policies and the return of cross-border capital, which could lead to a "Davis Double" effect in the consumer sector [3][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical recovery in the economy, with a focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [10][21] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - The report on Ecovacs (科沃斯) forecasts revenues of 18.923 billion, 21.973 billion, and 24.919 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.954 billion, 2.306 billion, and 2.777 billion CNY, indicating significant growth potential [2][13] - Ecovacs is expected to benefit from improvements in its cleaning business, the development of its consumer robotics matrix, and synergies from its supply chain layout [13] - The report highlights the potential for the liquid cooling industry to experience significant growth in 2026, with a focus on companies that have technological barriers and can enter major domestic and international supply chains [4][26] Group 3: Industry Trends and Projections - The liquid cooling market is projected to reach a conservative estimate of 6.9 billion to an optimistic 9.7 billion USD by 2026, driven by advancements in GPU technology and increasing demand for efficient cooling solutions [23][24] - The report indicates that the domestic liquid cooling server market is expected to exceed 10 billion USD by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 47.6% from 2023 to 2028 [25] - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on innovative products and market expansion, particularly in the context of the upcoming CES 2026 [32][34]

国内动态：西物院签订ITER第一壁合同，BEST核心部件订单陆续释放12月10日，核聚变中心与西物院 在京签订ITER第一壁批量制造合同；12月15日，由西物院牵头组成的中方联合体成功中标ITER边缘局 域模电源系统。近期等离子体所、聚变新能发布/更新多项采购，前期招标的氚工厂、低温系统等核心 部件已陆续开标并公示中标情况。中国工程物理研究院（原简称"九院"）材料研究所中标等离子所氚增 殖系统全部4个项目合计约11.4亿元。合肥物质科学研究院预中标低温系统关键部件（预算7.28亿元）； 合肥物质科学研究院等联合体获BEST装置TF磁体项目8.885亿元；西部超导、上海超导获千万级订单。 海外动态：特朗普媒体与科技集团收购TAE打造全球首家商业聚变上市公司12月18日，特朗普媒体与科 技集团（TMTG）官宣将与聚变能源公司TAETechnologies合并，价值超过60亿美元，预计2026年年中 完成交割，旨在打造全球首批可控核聚变上市公司。合并后的公司计划于2026年开工建设全球首座公用 事业规模的聚变电站（50MW）；此外，公司还计划建设其他聚变电站，预计装机容量为350-500MW。 TMTG同意在签约时 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for specific companies within the machinery sector, particularly in tractor exports and gas turbine orders [5][11]. Core Insights - The SW Machinery Equipment Index decreased by 1.56% in the last week, ranking 29th among 31 primary industry categories, while it has increased by 33.82% year-to-date, ranking 6th [13][16]. - The report highlights strong growth in tractor exports, particularly for medium and large tractors, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6% in November 2025, and anticipates continued growth in 2026 [5]. - Siemens Energy is establishing a gas turbine assembly base in Hainan, which is expected to enhance collaboration with domestic companies like Yingliu, particularly in turbine blade orders [5][24]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing an upward trend, with significant increases in sales and operating rates, indicating a positive outlook driven by infrastructure projects [5][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 1.56% over the last week but has risen by 33.82% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][16]. Key Data Tracking - General machinery remains under pressure, with a PMI of 49.2% in November, while engineering machinery shows accelerated growth with excavator sales up by 7.8% year-on-year [25][33]. - The railway equipment sector is stable, with fixed asset investments maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [38]. - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with new ship price indices showing a decline [40]. Industry Dynamics - The gas turbine market is robust, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025 [48]. - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing, supported by high demand in the Middle East [43]. - Industrial gas demand is expected to rise as raw material prices decrease and downstream operating rates improve [46].

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 机械设备行业点评报告 西门子海南总装基地落地，协同国产零部件 扩产缓解燃机交付压力 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 投资建议： 推荐高额燃机订单持续落地【杰瑞股份】、聚焦高技术壁垒透平叶片 国产替代【应流股份】、燃机缸体与环类主力供应商【豪迈科技】、卡特 彼勒供应商【联德股份】。 ◼ 风险提示： AI 投资不及预期、国际贸易摩擦、国产替代不及预期。 ◼ 事件：西门子新基地落地海南，完善燃机一体化流程 2025/12/18 官方公众号公布西门子能源在儋州设立海南公司，公司预 计于 2027 年实现其首个中国燃机总装基地及服务中心建成投运，形成覆 盖总装、应用验证、备件、运维的一体化体系，完善公司全球燃机布局。 海南自贸港全岛封关落地，通关及贸易投资便利度显著提升，具备为高端 装备制造、工程建设提供稳定环境的条件。西门子新基地将支撑海南清洁 能源岛建设，并依托本土供应链与制造能力，在燃机领域缩短交付周期、 提升项目效率，抬升海南全球能源产业链地位。 ◼ 燃机龙头产能饱和，总装&零部件扩产有望缓解交付瓶颈 燃气轮机行业核心利润 ...

Group 1 - The global generative AI investment is expected to grow significantly, with total investment projected to reach $315.9 billion in 2024 and $1,261.9 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% [1] - The rapid increase in global generative AI platform network traffic by 76% year-on-year and a 319% surge in mobile application downloads indicate a growing user dependency on AI technologies [1] Group 2 - North American internet giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with a total of $258.56 billion in 2024, marking a 58.05% year-on-year increase, to accelerate AI infrastructure development [2] - The demand for server PCBs is rising due to the construction of computing power infrastructure, leading manufacturers to expand production and shift towards high-end capacity [2] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming the preferred choice for cooling systems in intelligent computing centers due to its efficiency, low energy consumption, and compact size, with the domestic and international liquid cooling market experiencing rapid expansion [2] Group 3 - The power consumption of North American data centers is increasing, with natural gas becoming the largest source of new electricity supply, resulting in a rapid growth of gas turbine orders [3] - Diesel generator sets are essential for the stable operation of data centers, benefiting from the AI infrastructure wave and experiencing sales growth [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the growth opportunities in AI infrastructure-related equipment, projecting a significant increase in global investment in generative AI, expected to rise from $315.9 billion in 2024 to $1,261.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% [5][6] - North American internet giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with a total of $258.56 billion in 2024, marking a 58.05% year-on-year increase, focusing on AI infrastructure [6] - The demand for PCB (Printed Circuit Board) is expected to rise due to the growth in computing power, with manufacturers expanding production capacity and transitioning to high-end production [6] Group 2 - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with November retail sales growth at 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month, and fixed asset investment showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% [8][10] - The report highlights the need for policy measures to stabilize investment and support the real estate market, with a focus on increasing residents' income and expanding quality consumption supply [10][12] - The manufacturing investment decline has narrowed to 4.5% year-on-year, with certain sectors like transportation equipment and automobiles showing strong growth [14] Group 3 - Short-term loans and bond financing for enterprises are performing well, with a notable increase in short-term loans by 1,000 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting strong liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises [18][21] - The report indicates that the overall credit growth is expected to focus on structural optimization, with a shift towards supporting technology innovation and consumer infrastructure [19][21] - The monetary policy is anticipated to remain stable, with potential for further easing if necessary, while the banking sector is expected to maintain asset quality stability [20][21]