Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Nickel supply from Indonesia is expected to contract, providing support for nickel ore prices. As of January 16, the LME nickel spot price was $17,625 per ton, down 0.28% from January 9, while the total LME nickel inventory increased by 0.33% to 285,732 tons. The Shanghai nickel price rose by 5.01% to 144,000 yuan per ton during the same period [1] - The cobalt raw material supply in China is expected to remain structurally tight for a long time, with cobalt prices likely to continue rising. As of January 16, the price of electrolytic cobalt was 455,000 yuan per ton, down 1.30% from January 9 [2][5] - Antimony prices have stopped falling and are expected to be supported by improved demand and tight supply. As of January 15, the average price of domestic antimony concentrate was 142,500 yuan per ton, up 1.42% from January 8 [6] - Lithium carbonate prices have continued to rise significantly, with the average market price reaching 157,900 yuan per ton as of January 16, up 12.72% from January 9. The demand for lithium is expected to remain strong [8][19] - The price of tungsten is expected to rise further due to tight supply conditions. As of January 16, the price of white tungsten concentrate (65%) was 505,500 yuan per ton, up 5.20% from January 9 [13][21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry - Nickel prices are expected to be supported by supply constraints from Indonesia, with a projected mining quota of 250-260 million tons for 2026, lower than market expectations. The market is also concerned about additional taxes on by-products like cobalt and iron [1][16] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further due to export quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a projected production of 29,000 tons globally in 2024, a 21.8% increase year-on-year [5][17] Antimony Industry - Antimony prices are supported by tight supply and improved demand, with expectations of further price increases due to ongoing supply constraints, especially in northern China [6][18] Lithium Industry - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by strong demand and supply uncertainties. The average price reached 157,900 yuan per ton, with expectations for continued strong performance in the near term [8][19] Tungsten Industry - The tungsten market is facing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to rise further. The domestic mining quota for tungsten is projected to be lower than previous years, contributing to supply constraints [13][21] Uranium Industry - The uranium market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices remaining high due to geopolitical factors and structural shortages in supply. The global uranium price was $63.51 per pound as of December [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the volatility in multi-metal prices, particularly emphasizing the rising prices of rare earth elements. It notes that while short-term fluctuations in copper prices are expected due to macroeconomic factors, certain metals like rare earths and tantalum may continue to rise independently of supply-demand dynamics [1]. - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, tin, lithium, gold, tantalum, niobium, antimony, and uranium [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals market, including the temporary suspension of tariffs on key minerals by the U.S. and its impact on copper prices. It notes that the expectation of increased tariffs on refined copper has significantly decreased, although risks remain [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply chain, particularly in Chile, where production is affected by strikes, and the stable production guidance from the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4,590 and $89.2 per ounce, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.2% and 13.1% [2]. - The report indicates that the U.S. core CPI is at a four-year low, which has led to a revival in market expectations for interest rate cuts, positively influencing gold prices [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown fluctuations, with LME copper closing at $12,822.5 per ton, down 2.63% from the previous week. The report notes an increase in copper social inventory and highlights the recovery in downstream production post-holiday [3]. - The report also discusses aluminum prices, which have been volatile, with LME aluminum closing at $3,128.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.65% decrease [4]. Energy Metals - Nickel prices have experienced significant volatility, driven by expectations of tightened production quotas in Indonesia. The report notes that domestic social inventory has increased, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with the report highlighting a tight supply situation in the Chinese market, expected to persist into the first quarter [9]. Strategic Metals - The report indicates a continued rise in rare earth prices, with specific increases noted for praseodymium and terbium oxides. It anticipates stable growth in both domestic and international demand for rare earths, suggesting a potential new inventory replenishment cycle [12]. - The report recommends monitoring companies involved in rare earth production and related sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these investments [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in nickel prices driven by production cut expectations in Indonesia, highlighting the influx of capital and talent into the nickel industry, particularly from Chinese companies [1][4]. Group 1: Nickel Price Surge and Market Dynamics - Nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a high of $18,800 per ton on January 7, 2026, and peaked at $18,905 per ton on January 15, 2026, indicating a significant price increase [2]. - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, announced a 34% reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, which has intensified market speculation and price volatility [3][6]. - Chinese investments in Indonesia's nickel industry have been substantial, with $13.9 billion invested primarily in the downstream processing sector, accounting for 44% of total investments in the last five years [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Shifts - The competition in Indonesia's nickel market is evolving from a "factory building race" to a comprehensive competition focused on cost control, technology selection, and market positioning [4]. - Companies like Qingshan Holding, which controls about 30% of Indonesia's nickel mining capacity, are adapting their strategies to manage risks associated with fluctuating nickel prices and potential policy changes [6][9]. - The Indonesian government aims to boost nickel prices and fiscal revenue while promoting industrial upgrades, with companies like Qingshan actively participating in this process [8]. Group 3: Technological Innovations and Future Outlook - DeLong Group is facing pressure from the rise of hydrometallurgical (HPAL) processes, prompting a shift towards technological transformation to remain competitive [10][11]. - The focus is on enhancing production capabilities and product quality, with companies racing against time to implement new technologies and optimize operations [10][14]. - The competition is expected to intensify as major hydrometallurgical projects come online by the end of 2026, shifting the focus from mere production capacity to product quality and sustainability [15]. Group 4: Long-term Strategic Considerations - Companies are exploring the establishment of a complete industrial chain from nickel mining to battery recycling, which is seen as a strategic move to secure long-term advantages [16]. - The uncertainty surrounding policy changes remains a significant concern for companies, as they seek clarity to make substantial investments [16][18]. - The winners in this evolving landscape will be those who can effectively manage volatility, understand trends, and build sustainable competitive advantages [18].

Core Insights - The surge in nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is driven by Indonesia's significant production cut plans, which aim to reduce nickel output by 34% in 2026 [1][5] - Chinese companies are heavily investing in Indonesia's nickel industry, with investments primarily focused on nickel downstream processing, accounting for 44% of total investments in the last five years [1][2] - The competition landscape is evolving from a "factory building race" to a comprehensive competition focusing on cost control, technology choices, and market positioning [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nickel prices reached a high of $18,905 per ton on January 15, 2026, marking a significant increase and reflecting market reactions to Indonesia's production cuts [1] - The Indonesian government aims to boost nickel prices and fiscal revenue while promoting industrial upgrades through production cuts [5] - The competition among companies is intensifying, with established players like Qingshan Holding and newcomers vying for market share [2][6] Group 2: Company Strategies - Qingshan Holding, controlling about 30% of Indonesia's nickel production, is adapting its internal strategies to manage potential supply constraints and optimize resource allocation [3][4] - DeLong Group is facing pressure to transition from traditional nickel production to more advanced methods, such as HPAL technology, to remain competitive [6][7] - Huayou Cobalt is focusing on vertical integration and strategic partnerships to enhance its position in the nickel market, with significant projects underway [8][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - The nickel market is expected to see a shift in focus from quantity to quality and sustainability as new projects come online [10][11] - Companies are exploring the establishment of a complete industrial chain from nickel mining to battery recycling, which is seen as a strategic advantage [11] - The uncertainty surrounding policy changes remains a significant concern for companies, impacting long-term investment decisions [11][12]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to enter a high - level adjustment in the short term due to the dual pressure of short - term demand and a strong US dollar, but the medium - term demand is still positive [7]. - The downward space of lithium carbonate futures prices is limited, considering the limited growth of supply and the recovery of short - term demand [28]. - Aluminum prices have a downward adjustment demand in the short term due to the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase in the early stage [41][44]. - The operating center of nickel prices is expected to gradually rise, but the long - term space depends on the demand side, and investors need to pay attention to the Indonesian policy [77][78]. - Zinc prices are supported by macro - sentiment and a tight industrial pattern, but high prices have suppressed consumption, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [103][104]. 4. Summary of Each Metal Copper Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated between 100,060 and 105,650 this week, with a 5.3% decrease in total positions. The price first rose and then fell. LME copper also fluctuated in a certain range, and the overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long decreased [7]. - In the short term, high copper prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory accumulation accelerates. However, the medium - term demand is positive, such as the increase in the State Grid's fixed - asset investment and TSMC's capital expenditure. It is expected that copper prices will enter a high - level adjustment in the short term [7]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The import TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, but the supply of cold materials is abundant. The production of smelters in January is expected to decrease slightly. The import window of refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of waste copper rods and refined copper rods have rebounded, but the downstream purchasing sentiment is still cautious. The operating rate of wire and cable has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of enameled wire has increased [14][15][16][17]. - **Spot**: The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME + COMEX market has also increased. It is expected that the inventory may decline next week [18][20]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures price of lithium carbonate first rose and then fell this week, with a 17% decrease in total positions. The spot price also fluctuated. The downstream has stocked up in advance, and the social inventory has started to decline [27]. - The supply growth is limited, and the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the downward space of futures prices is limited [28]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Lithium ore prices have risen significantly this week. The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in January. The production cost has also increased [31]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and lithium batteries have all risen. The demand for cathode materials is expected to recover [32][33][34]. - **Spot**: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. Aluminum Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level this week, reaching new highs and then falling. The market sentiment cooled down, and the import window was closed. The inventory increased, and the spot premium was in a certain range [41]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase slightly in the short term, and the demand may be stimulated by the decline in aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will have a downward adjustment in the short term [44]. Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite production is gradually recovering, and the overseas market is trading lightly. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the price of imported bauxite has declined slightly [45]. - **Alumina**: The price has adjusted downward this week, and the import window is open. The domestic alumina plant is operating at a high level [49][50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window of aluminum ingots is closed, and the net import in November has declined. The operating rate of downstream processing has increased slightly due to pre - holiday stocking, but it is expected to be weak in the short term. The inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [55][62][65][70]. Nickel Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel prices fluctuated widely at a high level this week, rising first and then falling. The spot trading was light, and the import window was closed [74][77]. - Nickel prices are affected by Indonesian policies. Although the short - term surplus pressure still exists, the operating center is expected to rise. Investors need to pay attention to the final quota of Indonesia [77][78]. Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian wet - process nickel ore has decreased, and the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable. The import volume of nickel ore in November 2025 decreased month - on - month [79]. - **Ferronickel**: The production of domestic and Indonesian ferronickel has decreased. The market has some activity, but there is still a difference between the upstream and downstream [86]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. The production in December has increased, and the import and export volumes have changed [91]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts has risen significantly this week. The production in December has decreased, and the industry's operating load is at a certain level [96]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the pattern of low inventory and strong expectation will continue, but there are potential risks [99]. Zinc Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zinc prices fluctuated this week, reaching a new high and then falling back. The import window is not fully open, and the premium has declined [101][102]. - The short - term bullish funds are loose, the supply pressure is limited, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to be vigilant against the high - level callback of zinc prices [103][104]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, the import processing fee continues to decline, and the import window is open but the trading is light. The zinc ingot production in January is expected to increase slightly [109][110][111]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide have all decreased. It is expected that the operating rates will rise slightly next week, but the recovery is limited [112][113]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased [114].

Core Viewpoint - The major market experienced a net outflow of 48.602 billion yuan in principal funds as of January 16, with significant withdrawals from various sectors [1]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The top ten sectors with the largest net outflows include: - Internet Services: -2.89% with a net outflow of 14.738 billion yuan [2] - Software Development: -2.29% with a net outflow of 9.073 billion yuan [2] - Cultural Media: -4.48% with a net outflow of 6.488 billion yuan [2] - Non-ferrous Metals: -0.47% with a net outflow of 5.372 billion yuan [2] - Communication Equipment: -0.2% with a net outflow of 4.046 billion yuan [2] - Aerospace: -1.22% with a net outflow of 3.629 billion yuan [2] - Power Grid Equipment: +1.8% with a net outflow of 3.587 billion yuan [3] - Energy Metals: -2.96% with a net outflow of 2.991 billion yuan [3] - Batteries: -0.37% with a net outflow of 2.472 billion yuan [3] - Medical Services: -2.89% with a net outflow of 2.371 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Notable Companies - The companies with the largest net outflows in their respective sectors include: - State Grid Information Communication in Internet Services [2] - iFlytek in Software Development [2] - Wanrun Technology in Cultural Media [2] - Chuangjiang New Materials in Non-ferrous Metals [2] - Tianfu Communication in Communication Equipment [2] - Guangqi Technology in Aerospace [2] - Siyuan Electric in Power Grid Equipment [3] - Greenme in Energy Metals [3] - Enjie in Batteries [3] - WuXi AppTec in Medical Services [3]

| 互联网服务 | -2.43 | -118.62亿元 | 国网信通 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 软件开发 | -1.73 | -74.62亿元 | 科大讯飞 | | 文化传媒 | -4.15 | -58.23亿元 | 万润科技 | | 有色金属 | -0.12 | -31.96亿元 | 白银有色 | | 通信设备 | -0.09 | -31.90亿元 | 天孚通信 | | 航天航空 | -0.73 | -30.45亿元 | 博云新材 | | 能源金属 | -2.77 | -22.79亿元 | 格林美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信服务 | -1.98 | -20.59亿元 | 线上线下 | | 电池 | -0.28 | -20.53亿元 | 恩捷股份 | | 游戏 | -2.84 | -20.12亿元 | 名臣健康 | | *数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议 | | | | 据交易所数据显示，截至1月16日午后一小时，大盘主力资金净流出329.15亿元。主力资金流出前十大板块分别为：互联网服务（-118.62亿元）、 软件开发 （-74.62亿元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the rare earth sector, with the China Rare Earth Industry Index rising by 0.28% and several key stocks showing significant gains, such as Xiamen Tungsten rising by 5.35% [1] - The market regulatory authority has approved a series of national standards aimed at supporting the development of emerging fields, including standards for industrial internet platforms and digital supply chains, which will enhance the resilience of the industry chain [1] - The first quarter price of rare earth concentrate announced by Baotou Steel is 26,834 yuan/ton excluding tax, with a price adjustment of 536.68 yuan/ton for every 1% change in REO content, indicating a structured pricing mechanism in the rare earth market [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for 60.4% of the index, with notable companies including Northern Rare Earth, Jin Feng Technology, and Baotou Steel, reflecting the concentration of market power within a few key players [2] - The rare earth ETF managed by Harvest closely tracks the China Rare Earth Industry Index, providing a convenient investment tool for exposure to the domestic rare earth industry chain [3] - Investors can also access rare earth investment opportunities through the Harvest Rare Earth ETF linked fund, further facilitating investment in this sector [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in the global power battery installation volume, which reached 1046 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.60% [1] - CATL leads the market with an installation volume of 400 GWh, followed by BYD and LG Energy, while Honeycomb Energy shows remarkable performance with an 85.60% year-on-year growth [1] - The Chinese government aims to establish a new power grid platform by 2030, supporting renewable energy generation to account for approximately 30% of total generation, which will provide a stable green energy foundation for the power battery industry [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities predicts that the total demand for power and energy storage batteries will reach 1872 GWh in 2025 and 2336 GWh in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 45% and 25% respectively, particularly noting the significant growth in the energy storage market [1] - The industry is transitioning from laboratory research to the brink of industrialization, with solid-state battery technology gaining traction, and leading companies like CATL planning to commercialize this technology by 2027 [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Battery Theme Index account for 51.77% of the index, with CATL, Sungrow Power, and Sanhua Intelligent Control being the top three [2]