Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term market sentiment for buying copper is still strong. Although copper is in the inventory accumulation period, the support at 77,000 is expected to be strong. However, the short - term spot market's support for copper prices is weak due to inventory accumulation pressure at home and abroad [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly, closing at 78,580, and continued to run below the trend line. Spot copper rose 195 to 78,615, and the premium dropped 50 to 130. It is expected that the premium will continue to decline tomorrow. The premium of imported copper continued to be weak, with a rising trend in offers but large differences between buyers and sellers, and few transactions in the market. LME copper inventory increased by 14,275 to 153,850 tons, and the 0 - 3C structure expanded to 52.73. The domestic spot market has limited acceptance of high - priced copper, and the inventory accumulation pressure at home and abroad weakens the support of the short - term spot market for copper prices [11]. 2. Industry News - Some domestic copper processing material export orders to the US are under pressure due to the US tariff increase on copper semi - finished products. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were additionally taxed 50%, and the comprehensive tariff for copper tube exports to the US reached 97%. High tariffs have led to a suspension of subsequent un - signed orders from US customers [12]. - Codelco must submit four reports regarding the El Teniente copper mine collapse incident [12]. - Baiyin Nonferrous has achieved cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement. As of the end of July, the electrolysis workshop of its copper business has produced 231,000 tons of cathode copper, with the A - grade copper grade rate reaching 96.31% [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides a "Focus Index" for specific sectors: the coal and coke sector is rated ★★★★, indicating high attention [8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Policy Impact**: The joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization" by seven departments including the People's Bank of China aims to promote the high - end development of industries, support digital infrastructure construction, prevent "involution - type" competition, and enhance the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources [7]. - **Sector Analysis** - **Coal and Coke**: Supply contraction expectations are strengthening, and the market is in a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectations. The coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **PX**: With supply increasing and demand decreasing in August, the supply - demand structure is gradually becoming balanced, and a short - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12]. - **Other Commodities**: Different trends are presented for various commodities such as precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, including trends like narrow - range fluctuations, bullish or bearish trends [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy News - Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued an opinion to support new - style industrialization, strengthen long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction, and support important mineral resource development [7]. - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of short - term bonds this week, and there are concerns about the U.S. economic situation such as stagflation [24]. 3.2 Sector Highlights 3.2.1 Coal and Coke - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic supply recovery is slow, and imports are normal. Policy - driven supply contraction expectations are strong. The fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, but downstream steel mills are resistant to further increases [9][11]. - **Price Analysis**: From a valuation perspective, coal prices are affected by both the market and policy. From a spread perspective, it shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectations [9][11]. 3.2.2 PX - **Supply - Demand Changes**: Supply increases due to device restarts, while demand decreases. The supply - demand structure is gradually becoming balanced, and the downward trend in spot prices and the pressure on the futures market are evident [12]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold shows a slight increase due to weak non - farm data, and silver rebounds slightly. The trend intensity of both is relatively weak [20][23]. 3.2.4 Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventories increase, and prices are under pressure. Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation have an impact on the market [25]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [28]. - **Lead**: Inventory decreases, and prices are supported [32]. - **Tin**: The market is in a range - bound state, and the trend intensity is slightly bearish [34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is in a range - bound state, alumina shows a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [42]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market has intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations. Stainless steel is dragged down by supply - demand realities, but raw material costs limit the downside [46]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is in a wide - range fluctuation state, and resource - side disturbances have not been resolved [51]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental situation, and polysilicon is affected by more news disturbances [55]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is in a volatile and repeated state [59]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by sector sentiment, they are in a wide - range fluctuation state, and the supply - demand situation and macro - policies have an impact on the market [62]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Affected by market information, they are in a wide - range fluctuation state. The cost and price of raw materials and market transactions have an impact on the market [67]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are expected to be volatile and bullish, with supply contraction expectations and price increases [72]. - **Log**: The market is in a volatile and repeated state [76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: The price trend is volatile, and it has not yet broken out of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly. The market remains in a state of high - risk preference, where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [13][15][16]. - US Dollar Index: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17][20][21]. - US Stock Index Futures: Whether the economic downward pressure intensifies still needs more data verification. Attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [22][23][24]. - Treasury Bond Futures: August is a favorable period for the bond market. It is recommended to look for short - term opportunities to narrow the spread between T09 - 12 contracts when the bond market sentiment warms up [25][26][27]. - Agricultural Products (Beans Meal): The internal strength and external weakness will continue. The operating center of beans meal will rise [28][30][31]. - Agricultural Products (Edible Oils): For palm oil, do not short. Consider gradually laying out long positions in the 01 contract when the price pulls back to 8800 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, it is recommended to choose the 01 contract for long positions [32][33][34]. - Agricultural Products (Cotton): The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. There may be a rebound before a large number of new cotton hits the market [35][37][38]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): The upward movement of the price difference between rice and flour is expected to be weak [39][40]. - Black Metals (Steam Coal): It is expected that the coal price will rise to around 670 yuan (the long - term agreement price) and fluctuate. Pay attention to the price performance after the decline in rigid demand [41][42]. - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is difficult to fall sharply in the short term. Pay attention to the actual implementation of production restrictions in mid - August [42][43]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): In the medium to long term, corn is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in new crops [44]. - Black Metals (Rebar/HRC): The short - term market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to operate with a light position [45][46][47]. - Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke): In the short term, it will fluctuate. The 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation, and the market may return to fundamentals [48][49]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. Pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [50][52][53]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): In the short term, the price may operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [55][56][57]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): Consider gradually stopping losses on short positions. Wait for an opportunity to go long after the macro - sentiment is released [58][59]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): In the short term, pay attention to band trading opportunities. In the medium term, look for opportunities to short at high prices [60][61][62]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Wait and see before the risk event is resolved. Stop profiting from the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): Look for opportunities to buy at low prices and manage positions well. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [65][66]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): On a single - side basis, it is recommended to wait and see. Hold low - level speculative long positions with good position management. Pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [70][71]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It will fluctuate in the short term [72][73]. - Energy Chemicals (Urea): Pay attention to the relevant meeting in Beijing tomorrow. The price has strong support in the short term [74][75][76]. - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): Pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the position of narrowing the styrene - pure benzene price difference [77][78]. - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. - Energy Chemicals (Pulp): The market is expected to decline following the commodity market [81][82]. - Energy Chemicals (PVC): The market will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. - Energy Chemicals (PX): It will adjust in the short - term [85][86]. - Energy Chemicals (PTA): It will adjust in the short - term [87][88][89]. Core Viewpoints - The US economic data is weak, with the ISM non - manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations. There are signs of stagflation, and the inflation pressure will increase after the implementation of tariffs. The market risk preference has weakened [11][17][20]. - China's seven - department policy on financial support for new - type industrialization and the free pre - school education policy have boosted the stock market, and the market has strong expectations for policies [13][14][15]. - The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market needs to be closely monitored. In early August, the fundamentals and capital situation are favorable for the bond market [25]. - For commodities, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply of some agricultural products is affected by weather and planting conditions, and the supply of some non - ferrous metals is affected by production capacity and inventory [35][50][52]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and announced tariff increases, which raised market risk aversion. The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, showing stagflation risks. The gold price fluctuated and was waiting for a breakthrough [10][11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Seven departments issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization, and the State Council announced free pre - school education. The stock market was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this year. The market priced in policy expectations boldly and remained in a high - risk - preference state [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the economic downward pressure increased. The market risk preference weakened, and the US dollar index fluctuated [17][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of four - week Treasury bonds. The weakening of the service PMI has increased market concerns, and the US stock market is expected to continue to pull back [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market was dull. If it becomes insensitive to the stock market rise, the bond market can be more optimistic in the short term [25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Beans Meal) - The far - month basis trading volume of beans meal increased. The cost of imported soybeans supported the futures price, and the market was worried about the future supply of imported soybeans [28][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Edible Oils) - The supply of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia may decrease by 20% in the next five years, which has increased market concerns. The export of soybean oil from China has increased, and the price has risen [32][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume in the 2025/26 year will change little. The growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, and the excellent rate is stable. The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited [35][37][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the loss of enterprises in North China is expected to expand [39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is rising steadily. The price is expected to rise to around 670 yuan and fluctuate, and the daily consumption will reach an inflection point in mid - to late August [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Onslow project's iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly. The iron ore price will fluctuate, and the port inventory is expected to decline in the next 1 - 2 weeks [42][43]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has dropped significantly, and the market sentiment has turned pessimistic. In the long - term, corn is expected to decline [44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car sales forecast has been raised, and the steel price has rebounded. The short - term market is volatile [45][46][47]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Luliang is oscillating. The supply of coal and coke is gradually recovering, and the market will oscillate in the short term [48][49]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mitsubishi may cut its copper smelting business, and Codelco's mine has an accident. The market is worried about the US recession, and the copper price may be under pressure [50][51][53]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in June was 95.4%. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton [54][55][57]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan and Inner Mongolia Tongwei passed the industrial silicon measurement audit. The supply of industrial silicon may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon will also rise, and the inventory may decrease [58]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price is weakening, but the nickel price is difficult to fall deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [60][61][62]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - POSCO plans to acquire lithium assets. The demand for lithium carbonate is growing, but the supply is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved [63][64]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. Anhui's environmental protection measures affected the production of recycled lead. The short - term bottom of the lead price was established, but the downward trend has not been reversed [65][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreased. Glencore and Western Mining's zinc production increased. The supply of zinc is high, and the demand is weak. The zinc price will oscillate, and there is a risk of a short - term upward movement from the external market [67][68][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price was 72.38 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The trading volume did not increase significantly. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate around 73 yuan/ton [72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The government issued agricultural disaster - prevention measures. The urea price rose slightly, and the market was affected by the India tender and export policy expectations [74][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of caprolactam was stable. The styrene market fluctuated slightly, and the inventory was expected to increase in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the styrene - pure benzene spread [77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The market was affected by weak fundamentals and the end of the "anti - involution" sentiment [81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price rose. The market was affected by the rise of coking coal prices and will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was slightly stronger. The demand was in the off - season, and the supply was expected to increase. The price will adjust in the short term [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price weakened, and the trading improved slightly. The market was affected by the downstream off - season and followed the crude oil price. It will adjust in the short term [87][88][89].

Group 1 - The copper industry stocks have mostly risen, with notable increases in companies such as Minmetals Resources (+2.61%), Luoyang Molybdenum (+1.53%), Jiangxi Copper (+0.82%), and Zijin Mining (+0.74%) [1] - A mining accident in Chile's O'Higgins region resulted in the death of 6 individuals, including 5 trapped miners, prompting Codelco to initiate an investigation and halt underground operations [1] - The affected mine accounts for over 25% of Codelco's total production, which was 356,000 tons of copper last year, raising concerns about potential impacts on production targets [1] Group 2 - On July 30, the U.S. President signed an announcement addressing the national security implications of copper imports, imposing tariffs on certain copper products [2] - The tariffs do not affect copper raw materials, leading to the disappearance of the COMEX copper premium, while U.S. copper imports have already exceeded last year's total, with 74.3% being unaffected by tariffs [2] - It is anticipated that traders will redirect copper shipments away from the U.S. to other markets such as Europe and Asia, with LME and SHFE copper prices expected to be driven by supply and demand dynamics [2]

Group 1: Copper Market Update - Most copper stocks have risen, with Minmetals Resources up 2.61% at HKD 3.93, Luoyang Molybdenum up 1.53% at HKD 9.31, Jiangxi Copper up 0.82% at HKD 16.02, and Zijin Mining up 0.74% at HKD 21.82 [1] - A mining accident in Chile's O'Higgins region resulted in 6 deaths, with all 5 trapped miners confirmed dead. Codelco has initiated an investigation and halted underground operations, impacting production targets [1] - The affected mine accounts for over 25% of Codelco's total output, which produced 356,000 tons of copper last year. The news of the mine's shutdown has heightened tensions in the already tight copper market [1] Group 2: U.S. Copper Import Tariffs - On July 30, U.S. President Trump signed an announcement addressing the impact of copper imports on national security, imposing tariffs on certain copper products. However, raw copper materials are not restricted by these tariffs [2] - As a result, the COMEX copper premium has disappeared, and U.S. copper imports have already exceeded last year's total, with 74.3% of imports being unaffected by tariffs [2] - It is anticipated that traders will cease shipping copper to the U.S., redirecting it to other markets such as Europe and Asia. LME copper is expected to return to supply-demand pricing, with current LME copper inventories increasing and domestic demand being weak [2]

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Most copper stocks have risen, with Minmetals Resources up 2.61% at HKD 3.93, Luoyang Molybdenum up 1.53% at HKD 9.31, Jiangxi Copper up 0.82% at HKD 16.02, and Zijin Mining up 0.74% at HKD 21.82 [1] - The copper market sentiment has been boosted by the recent mining accident in Chile, which resulted in the death of 6 individuals, including 5 trapped miners [1] Group 2: Impact of Chilean Mining Accident - Codelco has initiated an investigation into the cause of the mining accident, and all underground operations have been halted [1] - The affected mine accounts for over 25% of Codelco's total production, which was 356,000 tons of copper last year [1] - It remains unclear how long the production halt will last and whether it will impact the company's production targets [1] Group 3: U.S. Copper Import Tariffs - On July 30, former U.S. President Trump signed an announcement addressing the impact of copper imports on national security, imposing tariffs on certain copper products [2] - The tariffs do not restrict copper raw materials, leading to the disappearance of the COMEX copper premium [2] - U.S. copper imports have already exceeded last year's total, with 74.3% of imports being unaffected by tariffs, suggesting that copper will be redirected to markets outside the U.S., such as Europe and Asia [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - It is expected that traders will no longer continue shipping copper to the U.S., affecting the supply dynamics [2] - LME copper is currently experiencing inventory accumulation, while domestic demand is weak due to the off-season, indicating that demand resilience may become a pricing factor for copper [2]

港股铜业股普遍上涨，其中，五矿资源、万国黄金集团涨超3%，中国黄金国际涨1%，江西铜业、中国 有色矿业跟涨。 消息上，智利国营矿业巨头Codelco旗下全球最大地下铜矿之一El Teniente因致命矿难停产，该矿占 Codelco总产量逾四分之一，去年产铜35.6万吨。停产消息引发市场对铜供应紧张担忧，推动伦敦金属 交易所铜价连续上涨。分析称，此次供应中断凸显铜市场供应链脆弱性。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01208 | 五矿资源 | 3.950 | 3.13% | | 03939 | 万国黄金集团 | 31.980 | 3.03% | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | 69.200 | 1.02% | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | 16.030 | 0.88% | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | 7.520 | 0.67% | 上周铜价曾大幅波动，美国意外宣布将精炼铜排除在新征收的进口关税范围外，导致铜价一度创下6月 初以来最低收盘价，而El Teniente的停产为市场注入了新的上涨动力。(格隆汇) ...

港股铜业股普遍上涨，其中，五矿资源、万国黄金集团涨超3%，中国黄金国际涨1%，江西铜业、中国 有色矿业跟涨。消息上，智利国营矿业巨头Codelco旗下全球最大地下铜矿之一El Teniente因致命矿难停 产，该矿占Codelco总产量逾四分之一，去年产铜35.6万吨。停产消息引发市场对铜供应紧张担忧，推 动伦敦金属交易所铜价连续上涨。分析称，此次供应中断凸显铜市场供应链脆弱性。上周铜价曾大幅波 动，美国意外宣布将精炼铜排除在新征收的进口关税范围外，导致铜价一度创下6月初以来最低收盘 价，而El Teniente的停产为市场注入了新的上涨动力。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It points out that factors such as US economic data, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals affect metal prices. Precious metals are expected to remain strong in the short - term, while other metals have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations [8][14][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose over $70 and 2.22% to $3362.64/oz, London silver rose 1% to $37.02/oz. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.33% to 781 yuan/g, Shanghai silver futures rose 0.80% to 8994 yuan/kg. The US dollar index fell 1.37% to 98.67, 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.225%, and the RMB against the US dollar rose 0.09% to 7.193 [4] - **Important Information**: US July non - farm payrolls were 73,000 (expected 110,000), unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings annual rate was 3.9%. July ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.8. Fed officials had different views on the labor market, and the probability of Fed rate cuts increased [5][6][8] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak US non - farm data, Fed internal differences, and doubts about Fed independence led to a decline in the US dollar and 10 - year US Treasury yields, and precious metals gained upward momentum. They are expected to remain high and be prone to rise and hard to fall in the short - term [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips [9] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, LME copper closed at $9,633/ton, up 0.27%. LME inventory increased 3,550 tons to 141,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased 1,766 tons to 259,000 tons [11] - **Important Information**: US July non - farm payrolls were poor, Fed理事Adriana Kugler resigned, Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and Codelco cut copper mining at its El Teniente project [11][13] - **Logic Analysis**: Poor non - farm data increased the probability of a September rate cut. Supply was tight with new disruptions, and domestic electrolytic copper production increased. Downstream procurement increased after price corrections, and LME inventory increased first [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak and volatile, focus on the 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton support, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14] Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract fell 39 yuan to 3,166 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Important Information**: Australian alumina price was stable, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a ten - key - industry stability and growth plan, spot prices decreased due to active sales by futures - cash traders, and inventory increased [16][18] - **Logic Analysis**: After the speculation sentiment cooled, prices returned to the fundamental logic. Supply - demand surplus expanded, and prices were under pressure but had support at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure, focus on the 3,000 - 3,100 yuan support, wait and see for arbitrage and options [20] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 5 yuan to 2,048 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions fell [22] - **Important Information**: US non - farm data was poor, the US adjusted "equivalent tariffs" to take effect on August 7, electrolytic aluminum inventory was stable on August 1, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors affected LME and Shanghai aluminum prices. Domestic speculative sentiment cooled, and inventory was expected to increase but at a slower pace [24] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under short - term pressure, consider positive arbitrage for 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges, wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,875 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions fell [27] - **Important Information**: Cast aluminum alloy production decreased slightly, and the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Scrap aluminum shortage restricted production, supply was tight, demand was weak, and futures prices were expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [28] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure and fluctuate with aluminum prices, consider positive arbitrage when the spot - futures spread is over 300 yuan, wait and see for options [28] Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 3.52% to $2,729.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 22,225 yuan/ton. Spot trading was average [30] - **Important Information**: China's refined zinc production in July was 602,800 tons, Nexa's Q2 zinc production had changes [30][31] - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply was sufficient, smelters were profitable and production was expected to increase, and consumption was in the off - season [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions, buy put options, wait and see for options [33] Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 0.23% to $1,974/ton, Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.69% to 16,775 yuan/ton. Spot trading improved regionally [35] - **Important Information**: The supply of waste lead - acid batteries was still limited, and some smelters stopped purchasing due to equipment maintenance or poor market conditions [35][36] - **Logic Analysis**: Lead concentrate was tight, primary lead supply increased, secondary lead production had an increase despite losses, and downstream procurement improved [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose $70 to $15,020/ton, inventory increased 390 tons to 209,082 tons. Spot premiums of different brands changed [40] - **Important Information**: Jien was registered as an LME delivery brand, Eramet's Indonesian subsidiary had mixed performance, and the Indonesian nickel industry faced challenges [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Poor US non - farm data boosted non - ferrous metals prices. Nickel supply and demand both increased slightly in August, and prices were expected to oscillate [42] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money put options [42][43] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 45 yuan to 12,820 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [45] - **Important Information**: Outokumpu's Q2 2025 performance was positive, and it announced a new strategy [46] - **Logic Analysis**: The market traded on the US economic recession expectation, stainless steel production was expected to increase in August, but demand was in the off - season and inventory declined slowly [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage [48] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fell last week, and spot prices decreased [50] - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized market - oriented and legal governance to break "involution" [50] - **Logic Analysis**: As leading manufacturers resumed production, the fundamentals became bearish, and the price was in a negative cycle [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in short - term short positions, consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [53] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures weakened last week, and spot prices were given [55] - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry [55] - **Logic Analysis**: Polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, there will be an oversupply, and capacity integration is expected to strengthen. Prices may have short - term callbacks but also sudden positives [55] - **Trading Strategy**: Participate lightly during price corrections with strict stop - losses, hold long polysilicon and short industrial silicon positions long - term, and conduct reverse arbitrage for far - month polysilicon contracts [56] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,080 yuan to 68,920 yuan/ton, and spot prices decreased [58] - **Important Information**: The National Certification and Accreditation Administration issued a new certification rule for lithium - ion batteries, CBA said the worst of the lithium bear market was over, and POSCO made an acquisition offer [59][60] - **Logic Analysis**: Positive factors supported short - term prices, and there may be a gap - up on Monday due to mine disturbance expectations [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, wait and see for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money put options [61] Tin - **Market Review**: Shanghai tin 2509 rose 0.8% to 266,370 yuan/ton, and spot prices and processing fees were given [63] - **Important Information**: US non - farm payrolls were poor, Fed理事Adriana Kugler resigned, and Indonesia's PTTimah's refined tin production and sales decreased in the first half of the year [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices rebounded after the non - farm data, the supply of tin ore was tight, and demand was in the off - season [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, wait and see for options [65]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing limited support from supply and demand dynamics, with a slight increase in prices despite weak economic data from the U.S. and a seasonal decline in domestic demand [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] - The unexpected weakness in U.S. employment data has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a temporary rebound in copper prices [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for July was reported at 48, below expectations, while domestic manufacturing PMI also showed a month-on-month decline, further pressuring copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have stabilized and slightly increased, but there are disruptions from overseas copper mines [1] - Chilean copper giant Codelco has halted operations at its flagship El Teniente mine due to a collapse, which may impact future production levels [1] - There is an expectation of rising LME copper inventories and domestic copper inventories, as U.S. import tariffs on copper are less extensive than anticipated [1]