全市场规模最大的化工ETF（(159870)）紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，截至2025年7月21日 14:12，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)强势上涨2.39%，成分股博源化工(000683)上涨10.06%，易 普力(002096)上涨9.98%，金发科技(600143)上涨9.98%，鲁西化工(000830)，华峰化学(002064)等个股跟 涨。化工ETF(159870)上涨2.53%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报0.61元。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学 (600309)、盐湖股份(000792)、巨化股份(600160)、宝丰能源(600989)、藏格矿业(000408)、华鲁恒升 (600426)、恒力石化(600346)、卫星化学(002648)、云天化(600096)、龙佰集团(002601)，前十大权重股 合计占比43.37%。 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接A：014942；联接C：014943；联接I：022792。 截至2025年7月22日 13:45，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)强势 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" due to favorable fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index against the benchmark index [2][7]. Core Insights - The TDI industry is experiencing significant supply disruptions due to a fire at Covestro's German plant, which has led to a production halt of 300,000 tons/year TDI. Additionally, Wanhua Chemical's Hungarian plant is undergoing maintenance, affecting 250,000 tons/year TDI capacity [1][5]. - European TDI supply is expected to be severely impacted, with the region accounting for approximately 16% of global TDI capacity. The combined capacity of the affected plants in Europe is 550,000 tons [5]. - Nearly 50% of global TDI production capacity is anticipated to be affected, with domestic maintenance also contributing to supply tightness. By August, domestic maintenance impacts are expected to reach 1.01 million tons, representing 30% of global capacity [5]. - TDI prices have begun to rebound from historical lows, increasing from 11,000 CNY/ton to 15,925 CNY/ton, a rise of over 40%. Historical peaks for TDI prices have exceeded 50,000 CNY/ton [5]. - Strong attention is recommended for Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical, with profit increases projected for each 1,000 CNY/ton rise in TDI prices, amounting to 830 million CNY for Wanhua and 120 million CNY for Cangzhou [5]. Industry Overview - The TDI industry is characterized by a global capacity of approximately 3.4 million tons, with over 70% of production concentrated in Asia, primarily in China [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of overseas production capacity contraction, particularly in Europe and the US, due to high production costs and plant closures [5].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with banking and insurance stocks continuing to decline, while the liquor and food & beverage sectors experienced gains [1][6]. Banking Sector - Major banks like China Everbright Bank reported a market capitalization of 249.93 billion with a trading volume of 446 million, showing a decline of 0.09 (-1.59%) [3]. - China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 436.27 billion, 347.77 billion, and 1,028.70 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 991 million, 2.11 billion, and 462 million, reflecting declines of 0.51 (-1.39%), 0.70 (-1.22%), and 0.07 (-0.83%) [3]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector continued to face downward pressure, with significant declines in major companies [3]. Liquor Industry - The liquor sector saw positive movement, with Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye reporting market capitalizations of 1,820.06 billion, 225.24 billion, and 482.06 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 2.14 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.15 billion, with increases of 4.34 (+2.41%), 1.63 (+1.33%), and 5.86 (+0.41%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry showed varied performance, with Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information having market capitalizations of 229.98 billion, 248.67 billion, and 316.92 billion respectively, and trading volumes of 1.33 billion, 2.71 billion, and 1.24 billion, with changes of -1.34 (-0.42%), +12.40 (+2.13%), and -0.32 (-0.23%) [3]. Oil Industry - The oil sector, including companies like Sinopec and PetroChina, reported market capitalizations of 725.05 billion and 1,643.53 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 758 million and 563 million, showing slight increases [3]. Coal Industry - The coal sector, represented by companies like Shenhua Group and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, had market capitalizations of 750.04 billion and 189.83 billion respectively, with minimal changes in stock prices [3]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector, led by BYD, reported a market capitalization of 1,849.01 billion with a trading volume of 3.54 billion, showing a slight increase of 2.39 (+0.72%) [3]. Other Sectors - Various other sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and logistics showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing gains while others faced declines [4][6].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 1.24% as of the latest update [1] - Key stocks such as Yipuli and Yara International have seen significant gains, with some stocks increasing over 3% [1] - The current situation in the chemical industry is reminiscent of the supply-side reforms of 2014-2015, suggesting a potential turning point for the sector [2] Group 2 - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while international factors like rising raw material costs and capacity exits in Europe and the U.S. add uncertainty to chemical supply [3] - The Chinese chemical industry is expected to leverage its competitive advantages in cost and technology to fill gaps in the international supply chain [3] - The implementation of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including chemicals, is anticipated to lead to structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacities [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, providing an efficient way to invest in the sector [4] - The ETF includes a diverse range of chemical sub-sectors, allowing investors to capture various investment opportunities within the chemical industry [4]

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-07-21 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3559.79 | 11007.48 | 4085.60 | 12493.55 | 3175.41 | 1007.89 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.66 | 1.19 | 0.94 | 0.03 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7309.05 | 9690.74 | 3779.38 | 3441.04 | 4440.16 | 269.06 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月22日 宏观与策略 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （20250714-20250718） 固定收益周 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of Q2 2025, China's public fund industry has generated a profit of 5.94 trillion yuan for its holders since 1998, with the market size reaching a new high of 33.73 trillion yuan and overall net profit exceeding 380 billion yuan [2] - The top 20 funds by profit are predominantly broad-based ETFs, with most profits exceeding 2 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The European Council President and the European Commission President are scheduled to visit China on July 24, where they will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang for the 25th China-EU Leaders' Meeting [3] - The State Council has announced the implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations starting September 15, 2025, aimed at standardizing rental activities and promoting high-quality development in the housing rental market [3] - The July LPR remains unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%, indicating a period of observation for monetary policy [3] Group 3 - China's economy is expected to run smoothly and improve in the second half of 2025, supported by proactive fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has urged the EU to stop listing Chinese companies and financial institutions in its sanctions against Russia, asserting the need to protect the legitimate rights of Chinese entities [4] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has released pilot guidelines for cross-border asset management, allowing foreign investors to invest in RMB-denominated products with a total initial cap of 10 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.72% at 3559.79 points, and a total market turnover of 1.73 trillion yuan [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 24994.14 points, marking its highest level since February 2022, with significant inflows from southbound funds [5] - Hong Kong has seen a 30% increase in IPOs year-on-year, raising 124 billion HKD, which is a 590% increase compared to the previous year [5] Group 5 - The latest holdings of active equity funds show Tencent Holdings as the top holding, followed by CATL and Kweichow Moutai, with a noticeable reduction in the concentration of holdings among the top 20 stocks [6] - Zhang Kun from E Fund has increased holdings in several liquor stocks and Alibaba, while exiting from Yanghe Brewery [6] - Transsion Holdings is considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong, potentially raising around 1 billion USD [6] Group 6 - BYD plans a stock split of 10-for-8 and a conversion of 12 shares for every 10 held for the 2024 fiscal year [8] - Hainan Free Trade Port has released guidelines for cross-border asset management, allowing foreign investors to invest in RMB-denominated products [4] - The company reports a significant increase in net profit for the first half of the year, with estimates ranging from 607% to 961% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The SynBioCon 2025 conference will focus on the integration of AI with biomanufacturing, green chemicals and new materials, future food, and future agriculture, aiming to explore the development trends of the biomanufacturing industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will be held from August 20-22, 2025, in Ningbo, Zhejiang [1]. - It aims to promote the transfer and transformation of scientific and technological achievements, product scaling, and talent acquisition in the biomanufacturing sector [1]. Group 2: Organizers and Supporters - Organized by Ningbo Detaizhongyan Information Technology Co., Ltd. (DT New Materials) and co-organized by several academic and research institutions [2]. - Supported by various associations and alliances, including the Chinese Society of Biotechnology and the Zhejiang Synthetic Biology Industry Technology Alliance [2]. Group 3: Key Speakers and Experts - Notable experts include Zhang Xian'en, Dean of the School of Synthetic Biology at Shenzhen University, and other prominent figures from various universities and research institutes [4][5][7][8][11][15][19][21][27][30]. - The conference will feature discussions on innovative biomanufacturing technologies and applications, including the development of bio-based products and processes [9][12][24][31]. Group 4: Conference Agenda - The agenda includes a series of forums and discussions on topics such as green chemicals, AI in biomanufacturing, and future food and agriculture [36][37]. - Activities will include a high-level roundtable, youth forums, and specialized sessions focusing on various aspects of biomanufacturing [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of maintenance shutdowns at major TDI production facilities, particularly by Wanhua Chemical and Covestro, leading to a significant increase in TDI prices in the domestic market. Group 1: Maintenance Shutdowns - Wanhua Chemical announced a maintenance shutdown for its Hungarian subsidiary's MDI and TDI production starting July 23, 2025, lasting approximately 30 days [1] - Covestro's Dormagen plant experienced an electrical fire on July 12, disrupting the production of key raw materials, which directly affects TDI production [2][3] - Wanhua Chemical's TDI facility in Fujian began a 45-day maintenance period on June 5, 2023, while other facilities also initiated maintenance, affecting a total capacity of 710,000 tons, which is 43.3% of domestic capacity [4] Group 2: Price Increases - The domestic TDI market price reached 15,900 yuan/ton on July 21, 2023, an increase of 1,012 yuan/ton (6.79%) from the previous day, marking five consecutive days of price rises [5] - Spot prices surged to 15,000 yuan/ton on the same day, with a daily increase of 9.22% and a monthly increase of 31.2% [5] Group 3: Global TDI Market Dynamics - The shutdowns of major TDI production bases in Europe and Japan will enhance the importance of Chinese TDI in the global market [6][7] - As of now, global TDI capacity totals 3,367,000 tons, with Asia accounting for 2,427,000 tons (72.1%), and China alone holds 1,640,000 tons (48.7% of global capacity) [7] Group 4: Export Trends - China's net TDI exports reached 220,000 tons from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97%, with major export destinations including Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, and India [8] Group 5: Market Reactions - The secondary market has reacted positively, with stocks of companies like Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical experiencing significant gains [9] - The unexpected production cuts have provided a temporary relief to TDI prices, which had been declining for two and a half years [10] Group 6: Future Considerations - The sustainability of the price increase will depend on downstream demand, as TDI is primarily used in soft foam, coatings, and adhesives, with soft foam accounting for approximately 73% of consumption [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 China International Engineering Plastics Industry Innovation Awards, highlighting the importance of innovation in the plastics sector and the upcoming evaluation process involving expert reviews and public voting [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event features participation from well-known companies such as Wanhua Chemical, DOMO, Asahi Kasei, and LG Chem, with over 30 new products being launched [2]. - Online voting for the "New Plastic Award" will conclude on July 23, followed by an expert review session from July 24 to July 25 [2][3]. Group 2: Evaluation Process - The online expert review for the "Innovative Materials Award" is scheduled for July 24 from 14:00 to 16:45, while the "Innovative Industry Solutions Award" review will take place on July 25 from 14:00 to 16:15 [3][6]. - The evaluation criteria include innovation degree, feasibility, economic viability, and impact [9][10][11][12]. Group 3: Award Categories and Participants - The "Innovative Materials Award" includes submissions from companies like Jiangsu Jino New Materials, Wanhua Chemical, and LG Chem, showcasing products such as flexible polyimide foam and optical-grade methyl methacrylate-styrene copolymer [4]. - The "Innovative Industry Solutions Award" features projects from companies like Suzhou Mold Flow Analysis Software and Guangdong Enbixin Intelligent Equipment, focusing on innovative solutions like vacuum weighing technology [5]. Group 4: Event Highlights - The event will gather over 600 global enterprise leaders and top scientists, promoting collaboration and exchange [13]. - It will also feature a grand award ceremony with over 100,000 exposures, establishing industry benchmarks and helping users select quality solutions [14].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **construction materials** and **engineering machinery** industries, with a focus on the impact of major infrastructure projects on these sectors [1][5][25]. Key Points and Arguments Economic and Policy Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to focus on addressing structural issues while stabilizing overall demand, particularly in real estate and consumption [1][3]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain loose, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1][3]. - Fiscal policy is unlikely to see significant short-term increases, but data from July and August will be crucial for potential support measures in September and October [1][3]. Major Infrastructure Projects - The restart of major projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, signals a significant opportunity for cyclical stocks, particularly in the construction materials sector [1][5]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo project has a total investment of **1.2 trillion** yuan, with a capacity of **60 million kilowatts**, indicating a strong push for stable economic growth over the next five years [1][9]. Construction Materials Sector - The construction materials industry is currently at a low point, with leading companies like Conch Cement, Oriental Yuhong, and China Jushi showing substantial profits but relatively low market valuations [1][7]. - Investors are advised to adjust their portfolios to include construction materials stocks, particularly focusing on leading companies to capitalize on potential demand changes [1][7][8]. - Recent performance of leading cyclical stocks, such as Conch Cement hitting its upper limit, indicates a positive trend [1][8]. Steel Industry Insights - The steel sector has seen significant price increases due to expectations of major infrastructure projects and supportive government policies [14][16]. - Recommendations for leading steel companies include Baosteel, CITIC Special Steel, and Hualing Steel, as they are expected to benefit from increased demand and reduced supply pressures [15][17]. Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing positive growth, with July data showing stable domestic sales and an expected **10%** increase in exports [26]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo project is projected to drive significant demand for construction machinery, with total equipment investment estimated at **200 billion** yuan [25][26]. Market Reactions - The market has reacted positively to the announcement of major projects, with significant stock price increases for companies involved in hydropower and construction [11][12]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo project has garnered attention due to its high investment amount and the involvement of high-ranking officials, indicating strong governmental support [12][13]. Additional Considerations - The construction materials sector is advised to focus on high dividend yield stocks as a safety margin, with specific recommendations including Conch Cement and Taipai Group [8]. - The engineering machinery sector should consider companies like SANY, XCMG, and major suppliers of construction equipment, as they are expected to benefit from increased project activity [25][26]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook for the construction materials and engineering machinery sectors, driven by government support for major infrastructure projects and a stabilizing economic environment. Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies within these industries to capitalize on emerging opportunities.