Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of pulp futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [7]. - The fundamentals of double - offset paper futures have not improved. It is recommended to view it as range - bound and sell on rallies [18]. 3. Summary by Variety Pulp - **Demand**: Demand is flat, with only rigid demand replenishment. Terminal orders in the downstream base paper market are limited, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. Only sporadic publishing tenders in the cultural paper field have slightly boosted market confidence, but demand has not improved substantially. The overall operating rate of downstream finished paper has declined [5]. - **Supply**: Supply is relatively abundant. Although the domestic pulp import volume decreased in October, port inventories are still ample. Overseas prices have fluctuated, but there is no shortage of supply [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.2 million tons or 5.1%. The inventory shifted from narrow - range destocking to high - level accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Paper mill profits continue to decline. Although the pulp futures market rebounded, weak downstream demand has led to a lack of support for price increases in the finished paper market, and the industry profit is contracting [6]. Double - offset Paper - **Demand**: Demand remains weak. This week, the domestic sales volume of double - offset paper was 169.6 thousand tons. Only sporadic orders were released in the publishing field, and social printing demand was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and only some downstream enterprises replenished inventory moderately [17]. - **Supply**: Supply increased slightly. This week, the operating rate of double - offset paper was 51.40%, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 percentage points, but the growth rate narrowed. The industry output reached 175.6 thousand tons, and imports remained at a low level [17]. - **Inventory**: Inventory decreased from an increase but the pressure still exists. This week, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last week. Although paper mill inventories decreased slightly, the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [17]. - **Profit**: The industry is still in a loss state. Although some paper mills' planned price increases may offset cost pressure slightly, the industry has been in a loss situation since October, and rising costs and weak demand have failed to reverse the loss pattern [17]. Waste Paper - **Demand**: Demand is strong and rising. The e - commerce festival and year - end promotions have led to concentrated procurement by downstream cardboard and carton factories. The seasonal recovery of cultural paper has also increased the demand for waste paper, driving up the procurement volume of waste cartons. The operating rate of paper mills exceeded 85%, and leading paper mills have raised purchase prices [26]. - **Supply**: Supply is continuously tight. The recycling volume of waste cartons has decreased in many domestic areas, and import restrictions and price increases of imported recycled pulp have increased the demand for domestic waste cartons. Some paper mills' maintenance has further exacerbated the supply gap [26]. - **Inventory**: Overall, there is a narrow - range destocking trend. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 million tons or 2.6%. Downstream cardboard factories' raw material inventories are mostly at medium - to - high levels, while paper mills' raw material inventories are generally low [26]. - **Profit**: Industry profits are clearly divided. The cost pressure of corrugated paper and boxboard paper has increased, and gross profit has shrunk. However, the demand for yarn tube paper is good, and the gross profit of some high - end paper types has remained at a good level [27]. Boxboard Paper (Packaging Paper) - **Demand**: Demand shows resilience. The e - commerce replenishment demand after the "Double 11" promotion and the subsequent Chinese New Year goods stocking demand support the demand for boxboard paper. Downstream cardboard factories have a certain demand for boxboard paper, driving some paper mills to raise prices [36]. - **Supply**: Supply is structurally tightened. Leading paper mills such as Nine Dragons and Shanying have raised prices, but due to the shortage of raw material waste paper, some medium - and large - sized paper mills in East and South China have announced machine shutdowns for maintenance in mid - November, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory turnover is 10.5 days, which is relatively controllable. However, the high - level raw material inventories of downstream cardboard factories have restricted their replenishment, and the low raw material inventories of paper mills have affected the production and stocking rhythm of boxboard paper [36]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit is 270 yuan, and profitability has some support. The price increase of boxboard paper and the rising cost of raw material waste yellow board paper have affected the profit margin, which is in a moderate recovery state [36].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,073, up 0.56% for the day and 34.96% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.80% to 5,981, with a year-to-date increase of 33.87%[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.68% to 9,599, showing a year-to-date growth of 31.68%[3] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks showed mixed results; Alibaba rose over 3% following news of a rebranding to enhance AI recognition[9] - The paper industry saw significant gains, with Nine Dragons Paper up over 10% due to a price increase of 30-100 RMB per ton[9] - The innovative drug sector was active, with 3SBio rising over 10% and BeiGene up over 7% after reporting a net profit of 1.139 billion RMB for Q3[9] Commodity and Energy Markets - Lithium battery stocks surged, with Ganfeng Lithium increasing over 12% as lithium carbonate futures rose 20% since mid-October[9] - Gold stocks collectively strengthened, with China Silver Group up over 12% as spot gold prices surpassed $4,220 per ounce[9] - OPEC warned of a "structural surplus" in the global oil market, leading to a decline in international oil prices[9] U.S. Market Trends - U.S. major indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.65% and the Nasdaq down 2.29% amid concerns over interest rate cuts[9] - Large tech stocks mostly fell, with Nvidia down 3.58% and Amazon down 2.71%[12] - The market's sentiment was pressured by Fed officials expressing hesitance on further rate cuts, reducing the probability of a December cut to nearly 50%[9] Japanese Market Insights - The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.43%, supported by a rebound in investor sentiment following the end of the U.S. government shutdown[12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan increased by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[12] - Bank stocks in Japan generally strengthened, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group up 2%[12]

Group 1 - Company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, establishing a more complete industrial chain, and is currently the world's largest paper production group and a leader in the integrated pulp and paper industry [1] - The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, with a current design capacity of over 23 million tons of paper [1] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% in revenue over the past ten years, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to remain stable, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.3% over the past five years [3] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with supply-demand imbalances leading to short-term price pressures, but the situation is expected to improve as smaller capacities exit the market [3] - The company has been expanding its production capacity, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% in new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [4] Group 3 - The company is focusing on the integrated development of pulp and paper, with significant results in its industrial chain layout, including plans for 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity and over 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of FY2025 [4] - The company is diversifying its product structure by expanding high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton paper costs [4] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons of raw materials by 2027, which will help minimize waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [4]

Group 1 - The company, Jiu Long Paper, is expected to achieve net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.49 billion, and 3.84 billion CNY for FY26-28, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.6X, 7.7X, and 7.0X [1] - The company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, evolving from a packaging-focused business to a comprehensive pulp and paper industry chain [1] - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over the past decade, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion CNY for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to grow, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons and 34.07 million tons for box paper and corrugated paper respectively in 2024, supported by a CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5% over the past five years [2] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with increased imports due to waste bans and zero tariff policies, leading to temporary price pressures [2] - The Guangdong Paper Association has initiated an "anti-involution" campaign to resist low-price competition and optimize capacity structure, indicating a positive shift in industry direction [2] Group 3 - The company has been expanding its production capacity even during industry downturns, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% for new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton production costs [3] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons in raw materials by 2027, which will help reduce waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [3]

Market Overview - Both Shanghai and Hong Kong markets opened lower but showed strong recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, reaching a ten-year high [1] - The Hang Seng Index also surpassed 27000 points, with trading volume exceeding 270 billion [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has ended after 43 days, improving dollar liquidity and boosting both risk and safe-haven assets [1] Financial Data - As of October 31, the total social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [3] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year [3] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [3] Commodity Prices - Prices for VC electrolyte additives have surged significantly, with the average price reaching 110,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 68% [4] - R32 prices have risen to 68,000 yuan/ton, benefiting companies like Dongyue Group, which saw a nearly 9% increase in stock price [5] Industry Developments - Several paper companies have announced price increases, driven by rising costs and expanding demand, particularly in the packaging paper sector [9] - The West Mande project in Guinea, which has the potential to become the fifth-largest iron ore mine, has commenced production, impacting the iron ore supply landscape [5] Company Highlights - Zhongyuan Marine Energy plans to acquire a large LPG transport vessel for 598 million yuan, aiming to enhance its position in the liquefied gas transportation sector [10] - The company reported a revenue of 5.47 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, but a net profit increase of 4.4% [10] - Zhongyuan Marine Energy has secured long-term contracts that cover approximately 20 million tons of its total oil transportation volume, providing stable revenue [11][12]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a weak adjustment but saw a strong rebound after 2:30 PM, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 27,073.03 points, up 150.30 points, or 0.56% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5,981.30 points, increasing by 47.31 points, or 0.80% [2] Alibaba's Impact - Alibaba's stock price initially fluctuated within a narrow range, with a maximum decline of nearly 1.5%, but surged after 2 PM, reaching a peak increase of over 5% before closing with a gain of 3.32% [4] - Positive news regarding Alibaba includes the secret launch of the "Qianwen" project, aimed at developing a personal AI assistant app to compete with ChatGPT, which is seen as a critical move in the AI sector [5] Investment Outlook - Alibaba is positioned as a full-stack AI service provider, with expected revenue growth and significant potential for profit margin improvement in the medium to long term [5] - The company plans to invest 380 billion yuan over the next three years, with a goal of achieving super artificial intelligence (ASI) [6] Sector Performance - The paper, non-ferrous metals, steel, electrical equipment, and semiconductor sectors showed strong performance, with notable gains from companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Ganfeng Lithium [6][7] - Despite the overall market strength, there was a notable shift in capital flows, with southbound funds ending a streak of net buying, resulting in a net sell of over 3.5 billion HKD [7][9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Hang Seng Technology Index reaching a peak increase of 1.5% and closing up 0.8% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.56% and 0.63%, respectively, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 27,000 points [1] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba rising by 3.32% and Netease and Meituan also experiencing slight increases, while Baidu, Tencent, JD.com, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou saw minor declines [2][4] - Alibaba plans to update its existing "Tongyi" iOS and Android applications, rebranding them as "Qwen" to align with its well-known AI model [4] Paper Industry - The paper industry is experiencing a price surge, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper seeing an increase of over 10% in stock price, driven by a significant price hike in packaging paper products [5][6] - The price adjustments in the paper sector have been substantial, with increases of 30-100 yuan per ton reported, leading to a chain reaction of price hikes across the industry [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovative drug sector is active, with companies like 3SBio and BeiGene seeing stock increases of over 10% and 7%, respectively [7] - BeiGene reported a net profit of 689 million yuan for Q3 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [7] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector is strong, with Ganfeng Lithium's stock rising over 12%, alongside increases in other related companies [8][9] - Lithium carbonate futures prices have risen by 20% from mid-October to early November, indicating strong demand and production activity in the industry [10] Gold Sector - Gold stocks are performing well, with China Silver Group and China Gold International seeing increases of over 12% and 7.6%, respectively, following a rise in international gold prices [10][11] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $4,220 per ounce, marking a significant increase since late October [11] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks are showing strong gains, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 5% [12] - Major players in the NAND flash memory market are reducing supply, which may lead to price increases in the future [12] Energy Sector - Oil stocks are underperforming, with major companies like CNOOC and PetroChina experiencing declines of over 2% due to a significant drop in international oil prices [14][15] - Coal stocks are also down, with companies like China Shenhua and Yida Resources following suit [16] Company Specifics - Samsonite reported a net profit of $63.6 million for Q3, slightly below market expectations, but analysts remain optimistic about its future outlook [21] - The stock of Samsonite surged by 14.39% during the trading session, reflecting positive market sentiment [21] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the easing of liquidity in the U.S. could lead to a rebound in risk assets, with Hong Kong stocks likely to benefit from this trend [23]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but rallied in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.56% at 27,073.03 points and a total turnover of 270.67 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.8% to 5,981.3 points, indicating a positive sentiment in the tech sector [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Alibaba (09988) surged 3.32% to 162 HKD, contributing 78.74 points to the Hang Seng Index, as it secretly launched the "Qwen" project to develop an AI assistant app [2] - China Biologic Products (01177) increased by 6.5% to 7.37 HKD, while Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) rose 4.85% to 38.5 HKD [2] Sector Highlights - The lithium battery sector showed strong performance, with Longpan Technology (02465) up 18.37% to 15.72 HKD and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 12.09% to 59.8 HKD [3] - The innovative drug sector also performed well, with 3SBio (01530) rising 10.18% to 33.78 HKD and BeiGene (06160) increasing by 7.71% to 229 HKD [4][5] Commodity and Energy Sector - Gold stocks collectively rose, with China National Gold (02099) up 7.6% to 147.3 HKD, as gold prices surpassed 4,200 USD per ounce [5] - Oil stocks faced pressure, with CNOOC (00883) down 2.01% to 22.48 HKD, following a report predicting a slight oversupply in the oil market by 2026 [7] Notable Stock Movements - Samsonite (01910) saw a significant increase of 14.39% to 19.08 HKD despite a decline in sales revenue [8] - Fourth Paradigm (06682) rose 9.16% to 53.05 HKD, benefiting from strong demand for AI solutions [9] - DCH Holdings (00179) fell 10.63% to 29.92 HKD due to limited details on new business plans [10] - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) dropped 3.51% to 44.5 HKD after announcing a share placement at a discount [11]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Chenming Paper seeing substantial stock price gains as a result of rising prices across the supply chain [1] Industry Summary - Since November, the domestic paper industry has been undergoing a price surge, with companies like Shanying Paper announcing price hikes of 30-100 RMB per ton for products such as red sand paper and corrugated paper [1] - Key regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang have seen price increases of 50 RMB per ton for core product categories, indicating a widespread adjustment in pricing [1] - The price increases are being echoed by downstream paperboard manufacturers in regions like Zhejiang and Hunan, with single-instance price hikes reaching 3%-10%, creating a comprehensive price adjustment across the entire supply chain from raw paper to end packaging [1] Company Summary - Stocks of major paper companies have risen significantly, with Nine Dragons Paper up 10.23% to 6.25 HKD, Chenming Paper up 8.86% to 0.86 HKD, and Lee & Man Paper up 4.88% to 3.01 HKD [1] - Analysts from Bohai Securities suggest that the ongoing price increases in packaging paper are solidifying the foundation for price adjustments, supported by upcoming demand from events like "Double Eleven" and the New Year and Spring Festival [1] - According to Industrial Securities, the period from 2023 to 2025 is expected to be one of capacity expansion for the industry, with a slowdown in new capacity additions starting in 2026, potentially leading to an upward turning point for the paper industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks have seen significant gains due to a price increase trend in the domestic paper sector, driven by rising demand and upcoming holidays [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose by 10.23% to HKD 6.25 - Chenming Paper (01812) increased by 8.86% to HKD 0.86 - Lee & Man Paper (02314) gained 4.88% to HKD 3.01 [1] Group 2: Price Increase Trend - Since November, the domestic paper industry has experienced a continuous price increase, with Shanying Paper leading the way by raising prices for products like red sand paper and corrugated paper by CNY 30-100 per ton - Core product prices in Guangdong and Zhejiang have increased by CNY 50 per ton - Nine Dragons Paper and other companies have followed suit, with increases in kraft paper and boxboard [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Downstream paperboard manufacturers in regions like Zhejiang and Hunan have quickly responded with price increases of 3%-10% in a full-chain pricing adjustment from raw paper to end packaging - Bohai Securities noted that the price increase in packaging paper is spreading downstream, solidifying the basis for paper companies' price hikes, supported by the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival and major holidays like New Year's and Spring Festival [1] Group 4: Industry Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the period from 2023 to 2025 is expected to be a capacity expansion phase for the industry, with a slowdown in new capacity additions starting in 2026 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support the paper industry, potentially leading to an upward turning point from the bottom [1]