产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 环球市场动态 2026 年全国 " 两 会 " 展 望 股 票 A 股周四窄幅震荡，AI、航天板块 强势；港股高开低走，大型科技股 继续承压；欧洲股市再度走强，强 劲财报支持多个市场再创新高；美 股英伟达 (NVDA US) 连续超预期 财报未获市场青睐，半导体科技股 大跌，金龙中国指数表现不佳。 外 汇 / 商 品 美伊核谈判据称进展良好，周四纽 约期油连跌 5 天。避险情绪降温， 金价微跌。日本央行货币政策委员 会委员高田创重申呼吁央行上调利 率，日元上升。政治不确定性拖累 英镑下跌。 固 定 收 益 美国国债上涨，10 年期国债收益率 跌至去年 11 月以来的最低水平，主 要受到科技股大幅下跌的带动。同 时，由于月底指数再平衡将纳入本 季度大量新发行的美债，被动型投 资者的买盘预期也推高了需求。 2026 年 2 月 27 日 ▪ 2026 年 3 月 4-5 日，全国政协十四届四次会议与十四届全国人大四次会议将在北京召开。我们认为 2026 年全 国 "两会" 的关注重点如下：预计 2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market shows a slight upward trend but remains weak overall, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing minor gains [1][2]. Company Performance - Baidu Group (HK09888) reported a total revenue of 129.1 billion yuan for 2025, with AI business revenue reaching 40 billion yuan; in Q4 2025, total revenue was 32.7 billion yuan, with AI business income accounting for 43% of general business revenue, exceeding market expectations [4]. - BeiGene (HK06160) achieved its first annual profit, with total revenue of 38.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.4%; product revenue reached 37.77 billion yuan, up 39.9%, driven by sales growth of drugs like Zebrutinib and Tislelizumab, with sales from licensed products from Amgen amounting to 3.471 billion yuan, a 33.6% increase [4]. - Tencent Holdings (HK00700) saw a slight rebound in early trading, with a gain of 1.07% [4]. Market Trends - Tencent's app, Tencent Yuanbao, re-entered the top 10 of the Apple App Store free app rankings, indicating a recovery in user demand post-Spring Festival [5]. - The technology sector stocks collectively rebounded, with Alibaba and JD.com showing slight increases, while the automotive sector weakened, with NIO dropping nearly 1% [5]. IPO Market Outlook - Multiple institutions express optimism regarding the Hong Kong IPO market for 2026, with UBS predicting a financing scale exceeding 300 billion HKD and around 150-200 listings [6]. - Huatai Securities estimates the main board IPO financing scale at approximately 310 billion HKD, with around 100 new companies [6]. - Deloitte forecasts about 160 new listings in the Hong Kong stock market, with a financing amount not less than 300 billion HKD [6]. - PwC anticipates around 150 new listings, with total fundraising between 320 billion to 350 billion HKD, potentially ranking among the top three globally [6]. - Analysts from China Merchants Securities note that the current valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is at a historical low, suggesting it is undervalued in the context of the AI development and technology-driven growth era [6].

自去年10月触及阶段高点以来，港股科技股持续走弱，截至最新收盘日，恒生科技指数累计跌幅超23%。 事实上，这一交易逻辑此前已在美股市场引发连锁反应，软件及相关板块个股遭遇大幅杀跌。由于恒生科技指 数的权重股以互联网平台公司为主，其商业模式恰好处于本轮资金撤离的风口浪尖，因而难以避免地受到波 及。 从资金面看，港股市场的悲观情绪正逐步向机构端扩散。据媒体报道，部分原本长期持仓的机构筹码已出现松 动迹象。南向资金最近两个交易日连续净卖出，累计金额超过110亿港元。作为长线资金重要配置标的的盈富 基金，近日亦连续遭遇南向资金减持，昨日单日净卖出额更是超过44亿港元，反映出长线资本对互联网平台前 景的谨慎态度正在升温。 浦银国际分析指出，受外部市场扰动，乐观情绪冲高回落，部分交易型指标动能转弱。估值端看，恒指仍位于 过去五年一倍标准差以上，但恒生科技指数仍偏低，位于过去五年均值附近。盈利端，A股和港股指数盈利预 期出现企稳回升的迹象，若本次业绩期公司普遍上调今明两年业绩指引，盈利有望成为市场向上的关键驱动 力。 部分代表中国新经济的核心科技资产，其估值已经回调至更具吸引力的区间。港股科技50ETF招商（159750） ...

2月26日，开工第三天，腾讯元宝重回苹果应用商店榜单前10。春节AI"大战"流量过后，用户需求回归 真实场景，大年初八开工后，腾讯元宝在苹果应用商店免费App排行榜排名快速回升。 为进一步推进AI应用市场普及，抢夺"超级入口"，2026年春节期间，阿里、腾讯、字节等在AI领域投入 巨大。其中，腾讯元宝率先发起10亿元现金红包活动，并推出"元宝派"探索AI社交新"赛道"。千问投入 30亿元推出"春节请客计划"，主打"吃喝玩乐免单"，并在春节期间持续加码至超60亿元；字节豆包重金 拿下央视春晚的独家合作，同时送出超10万份科技好礼及现金红包，总价值远超10亿元。DataEye研究 院预估，元宝、豆包、千问三款AI产品，春节前后营销战预计共花费超100亿元。 从数据上看，在抢红包、免单优惠、春晚交互等玩法的驱动下，字节、阿里、腾讯三家公司产品的日 活、月活均创了新高。数据显示，腾讯元宝月活跃用户（MAU）达到1.14亿，日活跃用户（DAU）超 过 5000 万。巨大的营销投入进一步推动了AI应用的用户普及，但营销热闹及补贴过后，用户留存、真 实需求驱动下的用户持续增长，将成为各大AI应用厂商的共同挑战。 （文章来源 ...

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the top 30 Chinese non-gaming and gaming companies in terms of overseas revenue for January 2026, highlighting trends and performance in the mobile application market [1][2][6]. Non-Gaming Companies - ByteDance and YY Group continue to lead the overseas revenue rankings, despite a slight decline in revenue [2][3]. - Ruqi Software returned to the third position, with its app "PictureThis" experiencing a revenue increase of over 52.2% due to successful holiday marketing campaigns [3][4]. - Companies like 合合信息 and iQIYI saw minor revenue growth, benefiting from holiday effects on their office tools and streaming applications [4]. - Daily Yoga's revenue increased by over 50.4% due to a successful New Year campaign focused on "Chair Yoga" [4][5]. - Several companies at the lower end of the ranking, such as Appxy and 大华科技, experienced slight revenue growth [5]. Gaming Companies - The gaming market showed increased activity in January, with top companies maintaining their positions, including 点点互动, Tencent, and 柠檬微趣 [6][8]. - 点点互动's game "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" achieved an estimated revenue of over $16 million, reinforcing its leading position [7][8]. - 悠星网络's games celebrated anniversaries, leading to significant revenue increases of 139.3% and 75.9% for its titles [8]. - 新游 "明日方舟：终末地" from 鹰角网络 made a strong return to the rankings, achieving notable revenue in its first weeks [8][9]. - 心动网络's new game "Heartopia" saw a revenue increase of over 147.9% due to effective marketing strategies [9].

Core Insights - A new reasoning framework for agents called DualPath has been introduced, which addresses I/O bottlenecks in long-text reasoning scenarios by optimizing the speed of loading KV-Cache from external storage [1][3]. Group 1: DualPath Framework - DualPath changes the traditional Storage-to-Prefill loading mode by introducing a second path, Storage-to-Decode, allowing for more efficient data handling [3][6]. - The framework utilizes idle storage network interface card (SNIC) bandwidth from the decoding engine (DE) to read caches and employs high-speed computing networks (RDMA) to transfer data to the prefill engine (PE), achieving global pooling of storage bandwidth and dynamic load balancing [3][13]. Group 2: Performance Improvements - In tests with a production-level model of 660 billion parameters, DualPath demonstrated a remarkable increase in offline inference throughput by 1.87 times and an average increase in online service throughput by 1.96 times [3][14]. - The framework significantly optimizes first token latency (TTFT) under high load while maintaining stable token generation speed (TPOT) [5][14]. Group 3: Technical Innovations - DualPath allows KV-Cache to be loaded into the decoding engine first, which is then transmitted to the prefill engine, alleviating bandwidth pressure on the prefill side [7][9]. - The architecture includes a central scheduler that dynamically allocates tasks based on I/O pressure and computational load, preventing congestion on any single network interface or computational resource [14][18]. Group 4: Research and Development - The first author of the paper, Wu Yongtong, is a PhD student at Peking University, focusing on system software and large model infrastructure, particularly in optimizing inference systems for large-scale deployment [15][16].

2月27日，昨日高开低走的港股三大指数高开反弹，恒指涨0.25%，国指涨0.04%，恒生科技指数涨 0.15%。大型科技股涨跌不一，生物医药股集体上涨，创新药概念方向领衔，汽车股、钢铁股、黄金股 多数上涨。连续调整的港股科技股今日早盘有所反弹，商汤-W涨超4%，腾讯控股涨近1.5%，中芯国 际、阿里巴巴-W等主要科技股悉数上涨。港股通互联网ETF基金（520910）现小幅微涨。截至2月26 日，港股通互联网ETF基金（520910）规模达6.64亿元，港股通互联网ETF基金（520910）近5个交易日 获资金净流入，累计"吸金"达3250万元。 公开资料显示，港股通互联网ETF基金（520910）跟踪中证港股通互联网指数，精准覆盖电商平台、内 容生态、社交媒体及软件服务等核心互联网领域，AI应用占比较高，与AI驱动互联网商业模式升级的 产业深化路径相契合，成分股中涵盖有望在后续AI加速渗透中持续受益的阿里巴巴、腾讯控股、美 团、快手等港股互联网龙头。 针对此轮港股回调，市场人士分析指出，背后主要推手是一种被称为"HALO交易"的配置策略——随着 人工智能技术加速迭代，市场正从过去追逐"可扩张的轻资产叙事"转向 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - The company discussed is Cambrian, which is involved in the semiconductor industry, specifically focusing on AI chips. Key Points - The internal sales target for the year is set at 30 billion yuan [1] - Tencent has placed an order for 30,000 units of Cambrian's HWJ cards, with a price of 950 yuan each [2] - ByteDance is a significant customer, ordering: - 100,000 units at 690 yuan each - 30,000 units at 580 yuan each - 20,000 units at 590 yuan each - The total revenue from ByteDance is projected to be 27.5 billion yuan [3] - Other companies such as Alibaba, Kuaishou, and JD.com are also expected to contribute to revenue growth [4] Additional Important Information - The sales figures indicate a strong demand for Cambrian's products, reflecting growth potential in the AI chip market [5] - The competitive landscape includes major players like Tencent and ByteDance, which may influence market dynamics and pricing strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - TiMi Montréal studio, a significant part of Tencent's gaming strategy, has been reported to be closed, raising questions about the company's commitment to developing AAA games internationally [1][3][4]. Group 1: Studio Closure and Background - TiMi Montréal studio was established five years ago and attracted notable talent, including Ubisoft's creative director Ashraf Ismail, known for his work on major titles like Assassin's Creed [1][3]. - Despite having a strong talent pool, the studio has not released any original games, focusing instead on projects like Pokémon Unite and Call of Duty Mobile, leading to disappointment among players and employees [3][4]. Group 2: Market Environment and Strategic Decisions - The closure of TiMi Montréal reflects a broader trend among Chinese tech companies, including ByteDance and NetEase, which have also scaled back their overseas operations due to market challenges [4][5]. - The gaming market is evolving, with a shift towards casual games, making the development of AAA titles increasingly risky and costly, as evidenced by the financial struggles of various studios [7][8]. Group 3: Future Implications for Tencent - Tencent's strategy appears to be shifting towards leveraging established IPs for stable revenue rather than investing heavily in new studios, as seen in their collaborations with Ubisoft [8][10]. - The company is likely to focus more on AI and diversified business strategies, which may yield greater influence and recognition than solely relying on AAA game development [10][11]. Group 4: Conclusion on Studio Closures - The decision to close TiMi Montréal may be a temporary pause rather than a permanent retreat, as the company reassesses its strategy in light of changing market conditions and technological advancements [12][14].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on February 27, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.25% to 26,447.05 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.15% to 5,117.24 points, and the National Enterprises Index increasing by 0.04% to 8,817.53 points. The Red Chip Index fell by 0.06% to 4,409.07 points [1] Company Performance - Baidu Group-SW reported a total revenue of 32.7 billion yuan for Q4 2025, a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a NON-GAAP net profit of 3.9 billion yuan. The smart cloud infrastructure revenue reached 5.8 billion yuan, and AI high-performance computing subscription revenue grew by 143% year-on-year [2] - Galaxy Entertainment's net income for 2025 was 49.2 billion HKD, a 13% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 10.7 billion HKD, up 22% year-on-year [2] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing reported total revenue of 29.161 billion HKD for 2025, a 30% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 17.754 billion HKD, up 36% year-on-year [2] - New World Development announced a revenue of 52.705 billion HKD for the six months ending December 31, 2025, a 31.98% year-on-year increase, with a profit of 10.247 billion HKD, up 36.21% year-on-year [2] - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 10.485 billion HKD for the six months ending December 31, 2025, with a net profit growth of 15% to 1.3343 billion HKD [3] - Jiangnan Buyi's total revenue for the same period was approximately 3.376 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, with a profit of 676 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [3] - Biotech company Kangsino Biologics reported total revenue of 1.068 billion yuan for 2025, a 26.18% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 27.827 million yuan, turning profitable [3] Earnings Forecasts - Zhenhua Education Group expects 2025 revenue to be between 1.8 billion and 2.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 63.3% to 81.5%, with net profit expected between 260 million and 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 35.2% to 76.8% [4] - Feida Holdings anticipates a net profit of no less than 100 million HKD for the year [4] Strategic Developments - NIO's subsidiary Shenji has entered into a final agreement for a 2.257 billion yuan investment related to NIO's smart driving chip business, maintaining a 62.7% indirect stake post-transaction [5] - MIRES-B has signed a memorandum of understanding with AHLL for strategic cooperation [5] - Several companies, including ZTO Express, Xiaomi Group, and NetEase Cloud Music, have initiated stock buybacks, indicating confidence in their future development [5] Market Insights - According to Ping An International, the current macro data vacuum and policy expectations around the National People's Congress may lead to continued appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign capital inflow, which could strengthen the spring market [6] - China Galaxy Securities highlights three key areas for future investment focus: rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East benefiting precious metals and energy sectors, consumer sector valuations at relatively low levels with potential for growth, and the technology sector as a long-term investment focus amid ongoing AI advancements [6]