Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - European routes have high capacity in June, and the price of the 06 contract has risen to around $2600/FEU. As MSC has started to revise the European route prices for June, other shipping companies will likely follow suit. Attention should be paid to the final actual prices in June. The 08 contract, being in the traditional peak season, still has price increase expectations, leading to a strong game between expectations and reality. Recently, arbitrage operations are more recommended [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of May 20, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 118,206 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 166,866 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1451.20, 1249.00, 1772.20, 2387.90, 1482.10, and 1625.20 respectively [4]. 2. Spot Prices - On May 16, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $3091/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $4069/FEU. On May 19, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1265.30 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1446.36 points [4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 16, 2025, 98 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 762,700 TEU. Among them, 31 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 467,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [5]. - The monthly average weekly capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. The weekly capacities in WEEK23/24/25/26/27 were 296,200/302,800/282,300/226,000/268,200 TEU, with an average of 277,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of over 20%. The monthly average weekly capacity in July was 259,000 TEU. The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 320,500 TEU, while in May it was 243,400 TEU, showing a rapid recovery [2]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would fully control the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli Air Force attacked over 160 targets in the Gaza Strip in the past day [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In May, more than 10 ships on the US routes were transferred to European routes, increasing the supply - side pressure on European routes in May. Most shipping companies continuously revised down their prices in May. The price of the OA Alliance in May dropped to around $1700/FEU, the price of YML in the PA Alliance in May was $1500/FEU, and the price of Maersk in WEEK22 was over $1600/FEU [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The progress of Sino-US trade is better than expected, boosting market demand. The European route is starting to return to the mid-year peak season price increase logic. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The short - term market may continue to game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. - From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", and the freight rates of most long - haul routes increased. However, the future economic recovery prospects in Europe and the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects still face uncertainties [9]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, which is an important step in resolving differences through dialogue and lays the foundation for further cooperation. Both sides agreed on multiple positive consensuses and measures such as tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Sino - US trade progress boosts market demand. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The price in late May has a small increase, and the price in early June has a significant increase of up to 100%, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The short - term market may game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", the transport demand recovered, and the comprehensive index increased [9]. - **European Route**: The ZEW economic sentiment index in the eurozone in May was better than expected, but the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects are unclear, and the freight rate decreased slightly [9]. - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation is similar to the European route, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly [9]. - **North American Route**: After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the transport demand recovered significantly, the cabin supply was tight, and the spot market booking price increased significantly [9][10]. - **Sino - US Talks**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, with both sides agreeing on tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS**: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.9% from May 12th to May 19th, and the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 0.6% [13]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as the trends of the main and sub - main contracts of container shipping European route futures are presented [18]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as global container capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates are presented [19][22].

中美关税摩擦降温后，新一轮"抢运"、"抢舱"潮正热火朝天。 一方面，中国工厂24小时赶工，机器都快转冒烟儿了；另一方面，美国企业则疯狂抢舱运货。 周一，虽然A股整体疲软，但航运港口板块仍逆势大爆发。 截至发稿，连云港、宁波海运、宁波港、珠海港、南京港、厦门港务等纷纷涨停，宁波远洋涨超8%， 凤凰航运涨超6%。 目前，连云港、宁波海运、南京港均斩获5连板。 值得一提的是，连云港年内累计涨幅已超117%，现总市值破101亿元。市值近790亿元的宁波港股价也 创下了近7个月新高。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 > | 总市值 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601008 | 连云港 | 8.20 | +0.75 | 10.07% | 101.73亿 | 117.51% | | 600798 | 宁波海运 | 4.93 | +0.45 | 10.04% | 59.48亿 | 62.71% | | 000088 | 盐田港 | 5.37 | +0.49 | 10.04% | 279.21 Z | 10.27% ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the freight forwarding industry, particularly focusing on shipping routes to the United States and global supply chain dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Shipping Demand and Trends**: - In early May, there was a surge in bookings for U.S. shipping routes due to positive news and speculation among primary agents, leading to a concentration of shipments for traditional bulk goods like furniture and textiles to address inventory buildup before tariff adjustments [1][2]. - The current booking prices are around $3,000, with Maersk offering discounted rates as low as $2,800, albeit without guaranteed space [4][5]. - June is expected to see a peak in supply as companies rush to replenish inventory, particularly for home appliances and furniture, although some businesses remain cautious due to tariff uncertainties [1][17]. - **Freight Forwarding Pricing Dynamics**: - Significant price discrepancies among freight forwarders are attributed to speculative warehousing, differences in customer bases, and the interplay between contract and market prices [4][5]. - The freight forwarding industry is experiencing lower profitability in Q2 compared to the previous year, with full-service logistics providers faring better than traditional FOB order service providers [3][26][27]. - **Market Conditions and Capacity**: - The current capacity for bookings in early June is relatively relaxed, with major shipping companies allowing for excess orders to gauge market demand [7][8]. - The proportion of FOB (Free on Board) shipping remains dominant at 70%-80%, with a notable shift from pre-paid contracts during the pandemic [19]. - **Impact of U.S.-China Relations**: - The easing of U.S.-China relations has made transshipment trade easier, with Southeast Asian factories operating at scale and complying with regulations [20]. - The potential for new shipping capacity entering U.S. routes is limited due to regulatory restrictions, with only a 50%-60% chance of new vessels being deployed [13]. - **Future Projections**: - A supply peak is anticipated around mid-June, driven by urgent inventory replenishment needs, although the overall market dynamics remain uncertain due to tariff sharing issues [17][18]. - The European shipping market is expected to see price increases, with projections for July rates reaching around $3,000 [31][32]. Other Important Insights - **Operational Challenges**: - The logistics of moving goods from factories to ports can take 1-2 weeks, with additional delays possible depending on transportation methods [11]. - The risk associated with origin certification and third-country transshipment services is high, leading traditional freight forwarders to avoid these high-risk areas [21][22]. - **Market Sentiment**: - There is a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of shipping demand, but many companies are still in a wait-and-see mode due to ongoing uncertainties in tariffs and market conditions [17][18]. - **Technological Adoption**: - The freight forwarding industry is still transitioning towards more digital solutions, with varying preferences for online versus offline booking depending on the shipping company [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the freight forwarding industry.

Core Viewpoint - The shipping market shows stable pricing among major carriers, with fluctuations in various indices indicating mixed demand trends and potential adjustments ahead [1] Pricing Summary - Major carriers' pricing as of May 16: - Maersk: $888 - $902 per TEU, $1483 - $1510 per TEU - CMA: $1210 - $1710 per TEU, $1995 - $2995 per TEU - MSC: $1130 per TEU, $1890 per TEU - ONE: $1271 - $2381 per TEU, $1637 - $2437 per TEU - EMC: $1105 - $1855 per TEU, $1810 - $3060 per TEU [1] Index Performance - As of May 12, SCFIS European line index at 1302.62 points, down 5.54% week-on-week - The US West Coast index increased by 10.19% to 1455.31 points - SCFI composite index as of May 9 at 1345.17 points, up 0.321% from the previous period [1] Freight Rates - Shanghai to Europe freight rate decreased by 3.25% to $1161 per TEU - Shanghai to US West Coast freight rate at $2347 per FEU, up 3.3% from last week - Shanghai to US East Coast freight rate at $3335 per FEU, up 1.58% from last week [1] Capacity and Demand - Global container capacity at 32.22 million TEU, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year - Eurozone April composite PMI at 50.4, manufacturing PMI at 49, services PMI at 50.1 - US April manufacturing PMI at 48.7, new orders index at 47.2 - April OECD leading index for G7 at 100.35 [1] Market Outlook - Recent futures market showed volatility with main contracts closing higher - The sentiment from tariff-related price increases appears to have been fully released, indicating potential adjustments ahead - Future price movements in the spot market and carriers' pricing strategies will significantly influence market trends, with expectations of a fluctuating upward trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Main shipping companies have issued price increase notices for June, and the 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of price increases, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US routes. Some shipping capacity has overflowed to European routes, but the US routes' capacity has rebounded in June, which may ease the pressure on European routes [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - As of May 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 123,385 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 248,496 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1449.00, 1273.20, 1787.30, 2359.30, 1464.70, and 1611.20 respectively [4][5] Spot Prices - On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU, and 3 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU [5] - In June, the capacity on the European routes is relatively high, and the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes has increased significantly compared to May. The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU, and the average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June is 294,000 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is in direct talks with the US to reach an agreement to end the Gaza conflict. If a permanent cease - fire is achieved, Hamas can hand over control of the Gaza Strip [1] Demand and European Economy - Not elaborated in detail in the content, but factors such as the US tariff policy adjustment and the situation of the Gaza conflict may have an impact on demand and the European economy [1][3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - HPL and MSC have issued price increase notices for June. The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, attention should be paid to the actual price implementation in June. Recently, arbitrage operations are more recommended [1][3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US route. Some ship capacity has overflowed to the European route, but the supply - demand mismatch opportunity in the US route in the short - term may ease the pressure on the European route. The price of the US route has risen significantly, which is beneficial to the European route [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for May and June. For example, Gemini Cooperation's 22 - week shipping schedule (last week of May) is quoted at 932/1571; HPL's May shipping schedule is quoted at 1100/1700, and the June shipping schedule is quoted at 1900/3200 [1] - Price increase announcements: MSC and HPL have announced price increases for the Far East - Europe route in June. MSC's price is 1920/3200 (June 1 - 14), and HPL's price is 1900/3200 (after June 1) [1] 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy Factors - Geopolitical: On May 14 local time, the Israeli negotiation delegation participated in talks in Doha regarding a cease - fire, the release of detainees, and the end of the Gaza conflict. Hamas participated indirectly [2] - Policy: On May 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US adjusted its tariffs on China to 20% (fentanyl) + 10% (new benchmark), and the suspension of tariffs will end in 90 days after April 2. China also made corresponding adjustments [3][4] 3.3 Shipping Capacity Analysis - May capacity: The capacity in May has gradually increased. The weekly capacities in WEEK20/21/22 are 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively, with an average weekly capacity of about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024 [2] - June capacity: The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU. A total of 11 US - bound ships have been transferred to the European route, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - to - US East and West routes in June is 285,100 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Futures market: As of May 14, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 119,581.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 263,372.00 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices. For example, the closing price of the EC2602 contract is 1518.30 [5] - Spot market: On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates - Arbitrage: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract; go long on the 08 contract and short on the 06 contract [6]

Group 1 - The recent US-China Geneva trade negotiations have led to significant progress, with both countries reducing tariff rates, resulting in a rapid response from the global shipping and logistics market [1] - There is a surge in demand for shipping services on US routes, with reports of a "rush for shipments" and "cabin space" as shipping rates have dramatically increased, with East Coast rates nearing $7000 in June [1][2] - Shipping companies have announced substantial rate hikes, with various carriers increasing fees for container shipments to the US, indicating a potential super peak season for shipping [1][2] Group 2 - Following the announcement of a 145% tariff increase by the US on China, there has been a significant withdrawal of shipping capacity from US routes, with a 40% reduction noted, complicating the return of capacity to these routes [2] - The strong demand for inventory replenishment in the US, coupled with a 90-day tariff exemption period, is expected to drive a surge in Chinese exports, with analysts predicting a "red sea moment" for shipping rates [2] - Companies in the shipping and logistics sector, such as COSCO, HMM, and Evergreen, are likely to benefit from the current market dynamics, as shipping rates are expected to remain elevated into the second half of the year [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - EC2506 had a yesterday's charge price of 1465.2, a change of -0.07%, a basis of -162.6, a yesterday's trading volume of 81997, a yesterday's open interest of 36838, and an open interest change of -561[2] - EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 1896.0, a change of 5.69%, a basis of -593.4, a yesterday's trading volume of ୧୧୦୧୫, a yesterday's open interest of 40901, and an open interest change of 1438[2] - EC2510 had a yesterday's charge price of 1410.3, a change of -4.81%, a basis of -107.7, a yesterday's trading volume of 25388, a yesterday's open interest of 19695, and an open interest change of 1875[2] - EC2512 had a yesterday's charge price of 1603.0, a change of -4.75%, a basis of -300.4, a yesterday's trading volume of 4425, a yesterday's open interest of 4438, and an open interest change of -113[2] - EC2602 had a yesterday's charge price of 1414.5, a change of -5.71%, a basis of -111.9, a yesterday's trading volume of 2517, a yesterday's open interest of 2953, and an open interest change of 9[2] - EC2604 had a yesterday's charge price of 1269.2, a change of -6.68%, a basis of 33.4, a yesterday's trading volume of 2609, a yesterday's open interest of 2096, and an open interest change of 578[2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2506 - 2508: The previous day's month - to - month spread was -279.0, the previous two days' was -430.8, the previous three days' was -327.8, and the differences were -103.0 and -159.4[2] - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 485.7, the previous two days' was 268.0, the previous three days' was 214.0, and the differences were 173.3 and 312.4[2] - EC2506 - 2510: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 54.9, the previous two days' was -11.0, the previous three days' was 54.6, and the differences were 70.3 and -15.4[2] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's month - to - month spread was -192.7, the previous two days' was -185.0, the previous three days' was -19.9, and the differences were 8.7 and -201.4[2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's month - to - month spread was 163.8, the previous two days' was 188.5, the previous three days' was 182.8, and the differences were 5.7 and 19.2[2] Shipping Indexes - CCFI (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was 1445.24 points, down from 1499.5 points, a decrease of -0.94%[2] - NCFI (European Line) had a -0.94% change[2] - FBX11 had a -2.34% change[2] - WCI had a -4.76% change[2] - SCEI on May 9, 2025, was $1161/TEU, compared to the previous value of $1260/TEU[2] - XSI - C (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was $2033/FEU, up 0.05% from the previous value, and down -1.17% compared to an earlier period[2] - TCI (European Line) on May 9, 2025, was 756.79 points, down -4.04% from the previous value; on May 13, 2025, it was 594.23 points, with no change from the previous value and a -0.85% change compared to an earlier period[2] Shipping News and Quotes - On May 12, 2025, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US - China tariff rate dropped from 145% to 30%, the China - US tariff rate dropped from 125% to 10%, and 24% of the reciprocal tariffs were exempted for 90 days. The US also adjusted the ad - valorem tariff rate for small packages under $800 from 120% to 54% and maintained the $100 per - piece specific tariff for small postal items, canceling the planned increase to $200 on June 1[2] - On May 13, 2025, HPL adjusted its May announced price increase from $3000 to $3200. For June, HPL's announced price increase reached $3200, ONE's reached $2437, and CMA's reached $2995[2] - In the first half of May, shipping companies initially mostly continued the previous prices, then the quotes gradually decreased, with week 18/19 ending at 1350 and 1300 points respectively. In the second half of May, the quotes continued to decline, with week 20 ending at 1200 - 1250 points, and week 21 continuing the price, with the current average converted to the futures price being 1230 points[2] Middle East Situation - On May 12, 2025, the Houthi rebels claimed to have used missiles to attack an Israeli airport and hit the target accurately[3] - On May 13, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would fully commit to advancing into the Gaza Strip in the coming days[3]

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