2026年2月1日 1月30日COMEX黄金期货跌8.35%报4907.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌25.50%报85.25美元/盎司%。上周 五夜盘沪金主力合约下跌9.83%报1079.28元/克，沪银主力合约下跌17%报24832元/千克，沪银跌停。我们认为美 国总统提名美联储前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大量的获利 盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应，引起了市场的踩踏。期货市场是保证 金交易，如果不能及时补充保证金，则会被强制平仓，之前的多头仓位就转变成为空头的力量。为应对突然下 跌影响持有期货或期权的机构进行对冲操作，也可能助推了这次贵金属抛售。 市场快讯---金银大幅回落之后 美国总统称要求沃什降息不合适，降息无需白宫施压。沃什的专业履历有助于顺利通过美国国会的审批。 我们认为沃什虽然曾公开批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作， 但并不能因此将沃什归为鹰派，沃什并不反对降息，而且美国总统经过权衡之后主动选择的人选至少不会和白 宫对着干。维护美联储的独立性，有利于市场回归有序的货币政策轨道， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, and continued to rise in the night session. The supply and inventory of the five major steel products increased this week, while demand decreased. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream steel demand has gradually shrunk, and the market speculation sentiment is poor. The winter storage policy has been gradually implemented, but merchants generally lack confidence in winter storage. The market expects the steel price to be stable after the festival [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher and continued to rise in the night session [1] Important Information - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 35,800 tons or 0.4%; the total inventory was 12.7851 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 214,300 tons or 1.7%; the weekly apparent consumption was 8.0174 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - In 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output was 40.8681 million tons, an increase of 1.427 million tons or 3.62% year-on-year [1] - According to the latest production schedule report of the three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in February 2026 was 23.79 million units, a decrease of 22.1% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [1] - Mysteel surveyed the Spring Festival shutdown situation of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills. Most of them will shut down in February, with the most (44, accounting for 47.83%) shutting down from February 1st to February 8th. The remaining 9 steel mills will shut down one after another after February 8th, and the latest one will shut down on February 15th [1] Market Logic - On Thursday, steel spot prices rose, and commodities generally increased. This week, the output and inventory of the five major steel products increased, while demand decreased. Rebar output and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot-rolled coil output increased while inventory decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream steel demand has gradually shrunk, and the market speculation sentiment is poor. The winter storage policy has been gradually implemented, but merchants generally lack confidence in winter storage. Most downstream infrastructure and housing construction enterprises lack the willingness to replenish inventory before the festival. Nearly 70% of enterprises will stop work 5 - 10 days before the festival, and nearly 60% of enterprises plan to resume work 10 - 15 days after the festival. There will be few new projects after the festival, and the market will still be dominated by ongoing projects. Downstream enterprises are relatively rational about the market performance after the festival. 66.67% of enterprises expect the steel price to remain stable after the festival, 21.57% are bearish, and only 11.76% think the price will rise compared with before the festival [1] Trading Strategy - Short-term oscillation. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the resistance level is 3,200 [1]

Core Insights - The futures industry in China has shown robust growth in 2025, with total net profit reaching 11 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's 9.47 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [1][2] - The increase in net profit outpaced revenue growth, reflecting improved operational effectiveness within the industry [2] - The market environment has shifted, leading to increased demand for risk management from real economy enterprises, which has positively impacted the futures market [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In December 2025, the total revenue of 150 futures companies reached 4.918 billion yuan, with a net profit of 684 million yuan, both showing month-on-month growth [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the cumulative revenue was 42.015 billion yuan, surpassing 41.293 billion yuan in 2024, while cumulative net profit was 11 billion yuan, up from 9.471 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The cumulative trading volume and trading value in the futures market increased by 17.4% and 23.74% year-on-year, respectively, providing a solid foundation for business development [2] Group 2: Business Structure and Strategy - The futures industry is transitioning from a reliance on traditional brokerage services to a model that emphasizes diversified business collaboration and comprehensive service empowerment [1][2] - Internal business structure optimization has become a key driver for net profit growth, with risk management, asset management, proprietary investment, and international business emerging as new profit sources [2][3] - The growth of over-the-counter derivatives and the increase in asset management scale and actively managed products indicate strong development potential within the industry [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to provide broader development opportunities for the futures industry, particularly in supporting national strategies and enhancing market functions [3] - Continuous product launches and deepening international openness are anticipated to expand market depth and increase international influence, potentially attracting new capital [3] - Companies are advised to focus on cost control and operational efficiency while investing in financial technology and risk management to prepare for the industry's transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 品种 | | --- | | 多（空） 推荐理由 | | 板块 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷收跌。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、生态环境部："十四五"期间累计完成 9.4 亿吨粗钢产能、1.7 亿千瓦煤电机组 | | | | | 超低排放改造。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 2、国家能源局：截至 2025 年底全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比增 16.1%。 3、据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2026 年 2 月空冰洗排产合计总 | | | | | 量共计 2379 万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降 22.1%。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 周三钢材价格持平。随着 ...

1月28日，泰国央行行长维塔伊·拉塔纳科恩（Vitai Ratanakorn）公开宣布，将线上黄金交易每日上限设 定为5000万泰铢，同时全面禁止黄金交易做空操作。这是继1月21日首次公布宽泛交易限额后，泰国央 行10日内第二次限制黄金交易。 泰国央行此次政策升级针对性极强。维塔伊·拉塔纳科恩在声明中直言，黄金交易是近期泰铢走强的核 心推手，新规则的核心目标是缓解本币升值压力，让汇率回归至与经济基本面匹配的合理区间。 数据显示，泰铢兑美元汇率已升至2021年3月以来的新高，2025年全年累计升值9%，2026年以来再度升 值约1%。泰铢兑美元汇率持续走强严重削弱了泰国出口商品的价格竞争力，同时推高了境外游客的出 行成本。根据泰国旅游局数据，今年迄今为止访泰外国游客人数同比减少9%，汇率因素成为行业复苏 的重要阻力。 事实上，1月27日，泰国财政部长就曾提到，为缓解私营部门对于泰铢升值幅度过高的担忧，泰国央行 已发布一份通知，要求平台报告黄金交易活动，并正在准备进一步的措施以收紧对黄金交易的监管。 西安交大客座教授景川认为，泰国央行的相关措施可能使部分东南亚短线资金转向纽约期金和伦敦金现 货交易，国际贵金属市场 ...

SHMET 网讯：1月27日，易方达基金管理有限公司发布公告称，1月28日起暂停易方达黄金主题LOF A 类人民币份额申购及定期定额投资业务。 公告称，本次操作旨在帮助基金平稳运作，并明确赎回不受影响。同时，相关公告信息显示，该产品不 同份额此前已存在不同程度的申购与定投限制，市场端实际可新增的通道本就偏紧。 当日，国投瑞银基金管理有限公司也发布公告称，将于1月28日起暂停旗下国投白银LOF的A类与C类基 金的申购及定投业务。 相比之下，国投白银LOF的"降温动作"更密集。据期货日报记者统计，2025年12月1日至2026年1月28日 间，该基金已累计发布溢价风险提示36次、停牌公告25次，并3次调整申购额度。 事实上，近50%的风险溢价意味着场内基金价格已提前透支白银预期涨幅。景川认为，一旦国际银价回 调，溢价可能在一两个交易日内急剧收敛，此时场内价格可能"闪崩"，引发踩踏、停牌和流动性枯竭， 甚至触发清盘风险。而暂停申购后，套利通道被彻底关闭，场内高溢价失去增量资金支撑，价格大概率 震荡回落，溢价缓慢收敛。在这样的情况下，套利者将转向"卖空场内份额+买入其他白银资产"的对冲 组合，或直接离场。 如果想配置 ...

隆众资讯燃气事业部总经理艾博则认为，当前液化气国内与国际价格走势已出现分歧，华东、山东等地 现货价格表现疲软。随着春节临近，工厂陆续放假导致需求减弱，炼厂供应充足且进入让利排库期，后 续国内液化气价格可能维持偏弱震荡走势。 新湖期货化工研究员宋亚楠则表示，本轮原油系品种整体上行趋势不可持续。寒流属于短期影响因素， 原油供应将维持宽松状态。地缘方面，美国与伊朗尚未发生直接正面冲突，不可控情景发生概率较低。 此外，LPG下游七成以上为化工需求，进口成本上涨导致PDH开工率回落较快，化工需求下降将抑制进 口量。 对于LPG大涨，吴志桥认为是"寒潮需求激增、中东供应收缩、市场情绪共振"三重利多叠加的结果。此 外，国际液化气现货市场未来两个月供应偏紧，科威特和美国现货供应紧张，叠加中国买家因合同货采 购量下降、现货采购增加引发的抢买热潮，进一步放大了价格弹性。值得注意的是，伊朗货源占我国丙 烷进口的17%、丁烷进口的47%，美国货源占我国LPG进口的25%，两地供应端的不确定性为价格提供 了额外支撑。 尽管当前原油系品种表现强势，但受访人士对后市走势的看法不一，市场多空博弈成为焦点。 吴志桥认为，在地缘、宏观及情绪面利 ...

市场快讯---COMEX白银站上100美元/盎司 2026年1月24日 1月23日COMEX白银期货收涨7.15%，报103.26美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货收涨1.42%，报4983.10美元/盎 司。美欧围绕格林兰岛争执放缓之后，又传出美国正调集重兵前往伊朗的消息，持续的地缘政治和经济不确定 性推动了避险需求，提高了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，而白银同时得到工业需求支持。近期美国总统抨击美 联储威胁央行独立性，美欧关系恶化也加剧了市场避险情绪。1月23日美元走弱也推动贵金属市场上涨。1月23日 美元指数大幅回落、最终收跌1.88%，报97.51。1月23日，全球金属市场掀起一轮上涨高潮。最新数据显示美联 储1月28日议息会议宣布降息的可能性几乎为零，目前市场普遍预期今年美联储首次降息可能在6月。市场短线 做多金银热情提振，白银站上100美元/盎司历史关口，黄金也逼近5000美元/盎司大关，虽然长期仍然看好，但 短线可能波动加剧，交易所可能进一步要求提高保证金比例和限制开仓，多头继续持仓，注意控制风险。 数据来源：Wind，格林大华期货 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性及完 ...

Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures continued to rise, with the main contract hitting the daily limit and increasing by 6.99% [1] - The br2603 contract showed strong performance, attributed to limited downtime in domestic butadiene facilities, maintaining high supply levels [2] - Downstream purchasing pressure remains, with production profits under significant strain, leading to an increase in inventory for some production enterprises [2] Group 2 - Demand from domestic tire manufacturers is mixed, with some companies benefiting from foreign trade orders, while others face production pressure [2] - The limited availability of domestic butadiene and ongoing export transactions provide cost support for synthetic rubber [2] - The market is expected to experience a short-term strong consolidation phase, with trade sentiment shifting as raw material prices rise [2]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical environment has become increasingly complex, leading to a rise in precious and non-ferrous metals prices, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce, prompting investors to seek alternatives like "investment copper bars" [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Copper Bars - "Investment copper bars" are not standard investment products and are difficult to liquidate, making them less favorable compared to standard investment options like ETFs [2][4]. - The market for "investment copper bars" has seen interest, particularly in Shenzhen, but actual purchases remain low, with sellers indicating they only sell and do not buy back [4]. Group 2: Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals ETFs - Non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs have significantly outperformed copper itself, with a rise of over 120% since last year, compared to copper's 33% increase [3][5]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to grow due to emerging sectors like AI data centers, which will support long-term price increases for these metals [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply Constraints - Recent price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals have led exchanges to implement measures to cool down the market, including adjustments to margin requirements and price limits [6]. - Analysts suggest that despite high prices, new mining capacity cannot be quickly stimulated due to the long development cycles of 5-10 years, and companies are currently favoring mergers over new projects [7].