半导体 2026 年 02 月 08 日 行 业 研 究 半导体 布局节后科技行情 ——大科技海外周报第 5 期 科技多板块持续回调，关注板块内超跌个股。 行 业 定 期 报 告 过去两周科技多板块持续回调，26/01/28-26/02/06 期间，半导体（申 万）下跌 9.30%，万得 AI 眼镜主题指数下跌 8.51%、国证算力下跌 8.48%、卫星通信下跌 8.23%、机器人指数下跌 4.82%，同期，上证指 数下跌 1.80%，科技行业多板块回调幅度显著，我们认为短期板块的 回调更多是资金和情绪驱动，各成长方向产业趋势明确，中长期具有 坚实的基本面趋势支撑，建议关注板块内超跌个股的机会。 布局节后科技行情。 1）Agent 带动 CPU 需求：近期国产 Agent 在春节前已开启"红 包大战"，Agent APP 下载量迎来显著增长，我们预计 Agent 的投流推 广将带来增量的 CPU 和 GPU 需求，据我们前期观点，在 Agent 快速 发展的 AI 时代，系统设计需从以 GPU 为中心转向 CPU-GPU 协同。 预计在 Agent 持续发展的过程中，CPU 需求有望被拉动，建议关注国 产 C ...

本周，SpaceX 确认与 xAI 合并，其 100 万颗卫星申请获受理；Claude Cowork 更新 11款插件，动摇传统 SaaS 软件核心护城河；质变科技发布记忆湖产品 MemoryLake。 投资要点： 计算机周观点第 33 期：底层基础设施迭 代加速，AI 原生力量重塑软件产业格局 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 杨蒙(分析师) | 021-23185700 | yangmeng@gtht.com | S0880525040072 | | 钟明翰(研究助理) | 021-38031383 | zhongminghan@gtht.com | S0880124070047 | 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Report] 相关报告 计算机《未来产业之脑机接口：资本与政策赋 能，迎产业窗口期》2026.02.05 计算机《政策注入消费动能，看好 ...

计算机周观点第 33 期：底层基础设施迭 代加速，AI 原生力量重塑软件产业格局 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 杨蒙(分析师) | 021-23185700 | yangmeng@gtht.com | S0880525040072 | | 钟明翰(研究助理) | 021-38031383 | zhongminghan@gtht.com | S0880124070047 | 本报告导读： 本周，SpaceX 确认与 xAI 合并，其 100 万颗卫星申请获受理；Claude Cowork 更新 11款插件，动摇传统 SaaS 软件核心护城河；质变科技发布记忆湖产品 MemoryLake。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Report] 相关报告 计算机《未来产业之脑机接口：资本与政策赋 能，迎产业窗口期》2026.02.05 计算机《政策注入消费动能，看好 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The total market value of heavy holdings in the computer sector for Q4 2025 is approximately 23.27 billion, down from 37.36 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a decrease of about 14.09 billion. The concentration of holdings has further increased, with a higher proportion in storage and vertical applications. Overall, the allocation ratio for the computer industry has reached a historically low level, indicating limited downside potential. With the acceleration of AI application commercialization, the sector is expected to see a recovery [2][5][6][35]. Summary by Sections Heavy Holdings and Allocation - The heavy allocation ratio for the computer sector has continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 1.6% in Q4 2025, down 0.7 percentage points from Q3 2025. The heavy allocation ratios over the past year have been -2.8%, -3.4%, -3.6%, and -3.8%, indicating a deepening decline [19][20]. Sector Performance and Fund Flow - The absolute value of holdings in various sub-sectors has generally decreased, with increased pressure from fund outflows. The top five sub-sectors by market value in Q4 2025 are IT infrastructure (2.8%), government IT (2.3%), industrial software (2.1%), cybersecurity (1.7%), and automotive IT (1.7%). The government IT sector saw a significant increase of 0.6%, while energy IT experienced a notable decline of 1.3% [6][34]. Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in the computer sector has significantly increased, reaching a new high. The CR10 and CR5 concentration ratios rose from 65.9% to 69.8% and from 49.1% to 57.8%, respectively, indicating a trend towards increased concentration of fund holdings [7][43]. Future Outlook - The application and computing power chains are expected to continue attracting institutional investments, with a focus on structural opportunities amid sector rotation. The current optimistic narrative surrounding AI is expected to drive demand for computing power, particularly as AI applications begin to materialize in various high-value scenarios [8][27][28]. Valuation Metrics - As of February 3, 2026, the latest PE-TTM for the Jiangsu computer index is 68.5 times, which is at the 91st percentile since 2016. In comparison, the latest PE-TTM for the CSI 300 is 13.3 times, at the 78th percentile [48][50].

从时间节点看，2月往往处于春节前后，是全年中市场情绪相对活跃的阶段之一。历史经验显示，在政 策预期、资金回流以及风险偏好回升等多重因素作用下，春季行情往往具备一定延续性。众赢财富通研 究发现，当前市场在经历前期震荡整理后，整体估值压力有所缓解，而成交活跃度与主题投资热度正在 回升，这为结构性机会的展开提供了基础。 在行业分布方面，电子板块依旧是券商配置的"压舱石"。随着算力需求持续扩张、国产替代进程加快以 及产业链景气度改善，相关细分领域的中长期逻辑并未发生变化。海光信息等公司因其在核心技术和产 业链地位上的优势，获得多家券商同时推荐，反映出机构对科技自主可控与高端制造方向的持续看好。 众赢财富通观察发现，电子板块内部的分化正在加剧，资金更倾向于流向业绩确定性相对较高、具备产 业趋势支撑的细分龙头。 机械设备板块在2月金股中同样占据重要位置。该板块一方面受益于制造业升级与设备更新需求，另一 方面也与算力基础设施、能源开发等投资方向密切相关。部分券商指出，机械设备企业订单可见度较 高、盈利修复节奏相对明确，在市场风格切换阶段具备较好的配置价值。众赢财富通认为，在当前宏观 环境下，兼具成长属性与一定周期弹性的装备 ...

Fund Size Statistics - The top three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Scale Index ETF (¥15.406 billion), Cross-border Industry Index ETF (¥6.624 billion), and Strategy Index ETF (¥5.384 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Theme Index ETF (-¥26.004 billion), Cross-border Scale Index ETF (-¥1.807 billion), and Cross-border Theme Index ETF (¥0.203 billion) [9] - The top three equity ETF products by fund size change are: CSI 500 ETF (¥2.832 billion), Chemical ETF (¥2.386 billion), and HuShen 300 ETF (¥2.229 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF products by fund size change are: Communication ETF (-¥30.885 billion), Non-ferrous Metals ETF (-¥3.932 billion), and Gold Stock ETF (-¥2.963 billion) [13] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a historical 78.57% probability of the full A index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.37% [23] - A-shares are expected to experience a short-term volatile market, influenced by liquidity from overseas markets and the recent AI bubble discussions affecting tech growth stocks [23] - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced ETF allocation strategy due to the anticipated short-term fluctuations in the market [60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [9] Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a significant pullback, with an overall decline of 4.31%, ranking 28th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region, and accounting for 7.03% of total market turnover. AI infrastructure-related stocks were notably active [2][6][17] - The report highlights the inflation of computing infrastructure, the emergence of space computing, and advancements in brain-computer interface technology as key trends [7][22] - The launch of the AI Agent social platform, MoltBook, marks a significant development in the 2C entry and high-value scenarios, indicating a potential acceleration in the commercialization of AI agents [8][50] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector saw a substantial decline of 4.31% last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index also experiencing a slight pullback of 0.44% [6][17] - AI infrastructure-related stocks showed notable activity, with specific companies like Wangsu Technology and Hongjing Technology seeing significant gains [19][20] Key Trends - The report identifies three main trends: inflation in computing infrastructure, the development of space computing, and advancements in brain-computer interface technology [7][22][31] - The "Star Computing·Intelligent Connection" seminar held in Beijing emphasizes collaborative efforts to advance space computing technology [31][34] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-value scenarios in both 2C and 2B sectors, including healthcare, taxation, legal services, coding, office applications, advertising, and e-commerce [8][30] - The introduction of personal assistants like Clawdbot is expected to drive localized deployment demand in households [8][30] Brain-Computer Interface Developments - The National Medical Products Administration approved two projects for revising standards related to brain-computer interface medical devices, indicating a favorable policy environment for the industry [38][41] - The rapid approval of these standards reflects the urgent need for regulatory frameworks to support the high-quality development of brain-computer interface technologies [41][42] AI Agent Commercialization - The report anticipates 2026 to be a pivotal year for AI agents, with significant advancements in their capabilities and potential applications across various sectors [50][54] - The emergence of platforms like MoltBook demonstrates the evolving role of AI agents from mere tools to autonomous entities capable of social interaction and collaboration [50][54]

华泰证券金融首席分析师沈娟在研报中表示，融资保证金上调这一调整体现了监管逆周期调节的政策取 向。融资是当前市场重要的增量资金来源之一，开年来融资余额、融资交易占比持续走高，通过提高门 槛引导市场适度降杠杆。本次调整有助于平抑短期波动、稳定投资者预期，引导市场向节奏更健康、持 续性更强的中长期行情演化。 近期，A股市场杠杆资金呈现降温趋势。Choice数据显示，沪深北三市两融余额已连续6个交易日回落， 失守2.7万亿元关口。业内人士认为，这反映出在高估值板块调整、监管政策引导及节日避险情绪等多重 因素作用下，投资者情绪正从"亢奋"回归"理性"。 | | 沪深北三市融资融券余额情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 融资融券余额(亿元) | 占A股流通市值比(%) | | 2026-02-05 | 26808.60 | 2.62 | | 2026-02-04 | 26928.72 | 2.61 | | 2026-02-03 | 27065.64 | 2.64 | | 2026-02-02 | 27090.88 | 2.68 | | 2026-01-30 | 27152.87 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expectation of returns stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - Strong demand for computing power driven by AI applications is expected to continue, with significant investments from major cloud providers [8]. - The hardware supply-demand imbalance is spreading across various sectors, leading to price increases [8]. - New technologies such as CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) are anticipated to create additional demand [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include: - Semiconductor manufacturing: SMIC (688981, Buy), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347, Buy) - Testing and packaging: Changdian Technology (600584, Buy), Tongfu Microelectronics (002156, Buy), and others [9]. - Server storage: Lianqi Technology (688008, Buy) - CPUs: Haiguang Information (688041, Buy), Longxin Technology (688047, Not Rated), and others [9]. - Passive components: Sanhua Group (300408, Buy), Fenghua Advanced Technology (000636, Not Rated) [9]. - Server manufacturing: Industrial Fulian (601138, Buy), Huaqin Technology (603296, Buy) [9]. - Analog and power chips: Naxin Micro (688052, Buy), Sierui Technology (688536, Not Rated), and others [9]. - Semiconductor equipment: Zhongwei Company (688012, Buy), Northern Huachuang (002371, Buy), and others [9]. - Optical devices/chips: Zhishang Technology (301486, Not Rated), Tianfu Communication (300394, Not Rated), and others [9]. AI Applications and Edge Computing - Key targets in edge AI applications include: - AI main control chips: Amlogic (688099, Buy), Hengxuan Technology (688608, Buy) - Edge storage: Zhaoyi Innovation (603986, Buy), Bawei Storage (688525, Buy) [10]. - Terminal manufacturers: Hikvision (002415, Buy), Luxshare Precision (002475, Buy), BYD Electronics (00285, Not Rated), and others [10]. - Core components for AI edge: Huanxu Electronics (601231, Buy), Sunny Optical Technology (02382, Buy), and others [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a cooling trend in leveraged funds, with the margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets falling below 2.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment from "exuberance" to "rationality" due to multiple factors including high valuation adjustments, regulatory policy guidance, and pre-holiday risk aversion [1][4]. Group 1: Margin Balance Data - As of February 5, the margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26,808.60 billion yuan, a decrease of 120.12 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [2][4]. - The margin balance has declined for six consecutive trading days since January 29, with a total reduction of 617.83 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Cooling of Leverage - The recent cooling of leveraged funds is primarily influenced by regulatory policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and heightened risk aversion ahead of the Spring Festival [4][5]. - A key regulatory change on January 14 raised the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%, increasing the cost of opening positions and suppressing new financing demand, particularly affecting small investors' willingness to engage in high-volatility tech stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fund Flow - The market is currently in a "trading vacuum" period before the holiday, with overall sentiment shifting from "exuberance" to "rationality," as evidenced by a decline in both the margin balance as a percentage of circulating market value and average daily trading volume [5]. - There is a noticeable shift in fund flow, with significant withdrawals from the technology sector and a rotation towards defensive assets such as coal and power, indicating a trend of "selling tech and buying coal" [7]. Group 4: ETF Market and Future Outlook - The ETF margin balance has also decreased, with a total of 1,216.06 billion yuan as of February 5, reflecting a reduction in leveraged exposure to high-volatility assets [8]. - Looking ahead, the activity level of leveraged funds will depend on three key signals: the return of northbound capital and ETF financing post-holiday, clarity in policy expectations, and the liquidity conditions in the interbank market [9].