外资力量被看好。 近期央行发布会表态之后，债市分歧进一步加剧。最新披露的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）连续8个月按 兵不动，市场上多空博弈出现新的变化。本周以来，已处于高位多时的长债利率在无明显利好刺激的背 景下出现连续下行。 不过，债市这一"回血"表现还不稳定。1月22日，股市情绪震荡中有所分化，债市则再度震荡回落，国 债期货集体小幅下跌，银行间主要利率债收益率上行。其中，30年期国债活跃券收益率整体先下后上， 尾盘又小幅回落。 对于长债利率迎来补涨，最受关注的力量除了开年银行等机构的配置情况，还有日债、美债被抛售之际 外资的布局。在机构人士看来，短期外资的人民币债券持仓或面临持续波动，但中长期维度下，债市对 外开放的趋势有望助推外资稳步增持中国债券。 长债利率震荡回落 1月20日以来，此前经历长期阴跌并处于高位的长债利率迎来久违的补涨行情。 往后看，中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，在央行买断式逆回购、MLF（中期借贷便利）两大类工具 加码投放的背景下，短期增量工具可能趋于稳健，但长期来看，"灵活高效"的总量政策基调下，降息降 准空间较为明确，关注后续政府债供给集中发力阶段总量工具配合宽财政的可能性。 公开市场方 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Chengda Pharmaceutical (301201.SZ) is currently experiencing a decline in stock price, with a closing price of 39.67 yuan and a drop of 4.16%, indicating that the stock is in a state of breaking its initial public offering (IPO) price [1] - Chengda Pharmaceutical was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market on January 20, 2022, with an initial public offering of 24,174,035 shares at a price of 72.69 yuan per share [1] - On its first day of trading, the stock reached a peak price of 188.00 yuan, which remains the highest point since its listing [1] Group 2 - The total amount raised from the IPO was 1,757.21 million yuan, with a net amount of 1,621.45 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [1] - The actual net fundraising amount exceeded the originally planned amount by 1,108.17 million yuan, with the initial target set at 513.28 million yuan for projects including "pharmaceutical intermediates, raw materials, and R&D center expansion" as well as "supplementing working capital" [1] - The total issuance costs for the IPO were 135.76 million yuan, with underwriting fees amounting to 117.93 million yuan [2] Group 3 - The actual controllers of Chengda Pharmaceutical are Ge Jianli, Lu Gang, and Lu Jin, with Lu Jin being a Chinese national who holds permanent residency in Canada [3] - On July 3, 2023, the company announced its 2022 annual equity distribution plan, which involves a cash distribution of 3.00 yuan for every 10 shares and a capital reserve increase of 6.00 shares for every 10 shares [3] - The record date for the equity distribution was set for July 6, 2023, with the ex-dividend date on July 7, 2023 [3]

1 光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 1 月 2 2 日 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 784.0 | 789.5 | -5.5 | I05-I09 | 17.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 766.5 | 771.5 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | 14.0 | 14.5 | -0.5 | | I01 | 752.5 | 757.0 | -4.5 | I01-I05 | -31.5 | -32.5 | 1.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 2.2 基差：图表 -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that leading securities firms are expected to report record high profits for the year 2025, driven by active trading and strong performance in retail and proprietary businesses [1] - CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and Southwest Securities are among the first to disclose their annual performance, indicating robust growth in earnings for leading firms [1] - Guotai Haitong Securities forecasts a significant improvement in the performance of listed securities firms, with a projected year-on-year increase of 46.4% in net profit attributable to shareholders, supported by active trading and a favorable base effect [1] Group 2 - The securities sector is benefiting from a combination of strong market performance and earnings elasticity, with a positive outlook for high-quality leading firms and those with wealth management features [1] - The influx of medium to long-term capital into the market is expected to drive retail investor participation, further enhancing the performance of securities firms [1] - The Guozheng Securities Leading Index (399437) has shown a slight increase of 0.11%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Caitong Securities and Dongwu Securities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is expected to experience sustained growth in domestic sales and a significant recovery in non-excavator categories, driven by positive fiscal policies and ongoing internationalization and electrification trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Domestic Sales Growth - In December 2025, domestic excavator sales continued to grow, with total excavator sales (including exports) reaching 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [1]. - For the entire year of 2025, total excavator sales (including exports) amounted to 235,257 units, reflecting a 17.0% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales reached 118,518 units, increasing by 17.9% [1]. - Non-excavator machinery categories showed a clear recovery trend, with loader sales up 17.6%, grader sales up 70.5%, truck crane sales up 39.1%, crawler crane sales up 95.5%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 36.7% in December 2025 [1]. Group 2: Infrastructure Investment and Policy Support - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, which is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and support downstream equipment demand [3]. - The meeting highlighted the need to optimize fiscal expenditure structures and enhance the management of local government special bond usage, which will further boost investment [3]. Group 3: Export Performance - In December 2025, excavator export sales reached 12,764 units, marking a 26.9% year-on-year increase, with total annual excavator exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [4]. - The export value of engineering machinery in December 2025 was $6.42 billion, a 27.2% increase year-on-year, while the total export value for the year was $60.17 billion, reflecting a 13.8% growth [4]. - The engineering machinery export market is expected to benefit from increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite facing challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Electrification Trends - Electric loader sales in December 2025 reached 2,722 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 218.7%, with an electrification rate of 22.2%, up 13.2 percentage points [5]. - For the entire year of 2025, electric loader sales totaled 29,771 units, reflecting a 165.3% year-on-year growth, with an electrification rate of 23.2%, an increase of 12.9 percentage points [5]. - The industry is expected to accelerate its electrification process, which will enhance revenue and profit for major manufacturers [5]. Group 5: Major Projects Impact - The Yaxia Hydropower Project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery, with equipment demand potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan [8]. - The project is expected to create a strong demand for large excavators, rock tunnel boring machines, cranes, and concrete machinery, further driving the engineering machinery industry [8]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong, Shantui, and China Longgong are recommended for investment, along with component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [9]. - The electrification and internationalization trends are expected to benefit traditional forklift manufacturers that have strong manufacturing and sales capabilities, with recommendations for Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group [9].

近期，记者注意到，多家银行年初以来发行的大额存单利率较去年出现下调情况，部分银行的短期产品 利率已降至1%以下，进入"0"字头区间。 存款利率继续下调 当前，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行等多家国有银行的1个月及3个月期大额存单利率为0.9%，较往 年明显下调。此外，多家中小银行近期发行的3个月、6个月等期限的大额存单利率也均下调，其中云南 腾冲农商行、云南隆阳农商行等银行近期发行的3个月期大额存单，利率已步入1%以下，进入"0"字头 区间。在多家银行手机App上，5年期大额存单已不见踪影，部分银行仅剩下2年期及更短期限的产品。 光大证券金融业首席分析师 王一峰：大额存单作为银行体系的主动负债，其定价水平相对较高，流动 性也好于存款，市场需求相对旺盛。同时，大额存单也因为其成本偏高，银行体系为稳定自身经营，缓 解净息差压力，倾向于对其进行较为严格的量、价管理。 业内人士指出，在近期央行结构性降息降准以及商业银行自身稳定净息差的双重背景下，未来一段时 间，银行定期存单的发行规模可能继续收缩，利率或将继续下行。 国家金融与发展实验室副主任 曾刚：调整我们的投资理念，不能像以前把大量资金配置在中长期的定 期存款类产品 ...

Group 1 - Major banks have reduced the interest rates on large certificates of deposit (CDs) since the beginning of the year, with some short-term products falling below 1%, entering the "0" range [1][3] - State-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China are offering 1-month and 3-month large CDs at 0.9%, significantly lower than previous years [1] - Several small and medium-sized banks have also lowered their rates for 3-month and 6-month large CDs, with some banks like Yunnan Tengchong Rural Commercial Bank and Yunnan Longyang Rural Commercial Bank offering rates below 1% [3] Group 2 - According to analysts, large CDs are considered active liabilities for banks, with relatively high pricing levels and better liquidity compared to regular deposits, leading to strong market demand [5] - Due to the recent structural interest rate cuts and the need for banks to stabilize their net interest margins, the issuance scale of fixed-term deposits may continue to shrink, and rates are expected to decline further [7] - Investment strategies should be adjusted to diversify asset allocation rather than heavily relying on medium to long-term fixed deposit products, based on actual risk tolerance [10]

Group 1 - The Chinese government will extend tax policies for innovative enterprises' domestic issuance of depositary receipts (CDRs) from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, including exemptions on individual income tax for capital gains and differentiated tax policies for dividends [1] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced the establishment of new duty-free shops at 41 ports, including Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, allowing residents from Macau to purchase duty-free goods up to 15,000 yuan [2] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the ongoing progress of new urbanization and the potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector, advocating for city-specific policies to manage supply and demand [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to address "abnormally low prices" in government procurement, requiring procurement entities to set reasonable maximum prices based on market conditions and project budgets [3] - The People's Bank of China will hold a meeting on January 15, 2026, to discuss the development of a modern payment system, focusing on cross-border payment systems and regulatory measures [3] - Guangdong Province introduced policies to promote high-quality development in transportation through artificial intelligence, encouraging the testing and application of smart connected vehicles [4] Group 3 - The European Parliament's International Trade Committee announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU-US trade agreement due to current geopolitical tensions [5] - Major US stock indices showed recovery, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.21% to 49,077.23 points, and significant rebounds in large tech stocks such as Nvidia and Tesla [6] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 2.2%, with notable gains in companies like Baidu and Alibaba [6] Group 4 - Analysts from various securities firms suggest that the current spring market rally is still in progress, with expectations for continued structural market trends and rotation of hot sectors [7] - There is a focus on earnings disclosures in the technology sector, particularly in chips and artificial intelligence, as well as the impact of domestic policies on capital expenditures [7]

国产商业化加速推进，进口替代确定性强 国内手术机器人行业起步较晚，市场长期由外资品牌主导。随着《立项指南》的发布、叠加"大规模设 备更新"政策红利延续、国产设备性价比优势凸显，该行认为手术机器人行业渗透率将加速提升；本土 设备在二三线医院及基层市场的教育成效显著，国产替代确定性强。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，国家医保局近日正式印发《手术与治疗辅助操作类医疗服务 价格项目立项指南(试行)》有望重塑行业估值逻辑，看好背靠大型医疗集团、能适应新医保支付规则、 具备资金及渠道优势的平台型公司。具备差异化创新能力(如单孔、5G远程)、产品性能符合"精准执 行"高收费标准且具备性价比优势的国产公司，有望通过服务收费模式，稳步提升市场份额及盈利质 量。 事件：国家医保局近日正式印发《手术与治疗辅助操作类医疗服务价格项目立项指南(试行)》(以下简称 《立项指南》)，围绕3D打印、示踪增强成像、能量器械、术中影像引导、机械臂与远程手术等医疗科 技创新成果，进行统一价格立项，规范形成37项价格项目、5项加收项、1项扩展项。 光大证券主要观点如下： 以腔镜手术机器人为例，随着国产龙头企业产能释放及临床数据验证成熟，达 ...

国际黄金价格自1月初回落至4340美元/盎司关口后，随着一系列刺激影响开始重新强势上涨，截至1月 21日盘中最高触及4891.1美元/盎司的历史极值，不到20天内累计涨幅达12.7%。 国内黄金期货主合约价格在今天盘中也大4.61%一举1100元/克大关。 股市方面，今天黄金股掀起涨停潮，招金黄金、白银有色、赤峰黄金、四川黄金等超十只黄金股集体封 板涨停。 作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 2026年开年以来，国际黄金市场迎来超预期的强势行情。 黄金大牛市下，黄金股ETF(159562)今日涨5.73%，今年以来的近13个交易日累计涨25.82%，净值续创 历史新高。 随着金价不断"破百"，之前还被市场认为高不可攀的5000美元/大关也近在咫尺，机构们开始频频上调 对目标价，又给市场带来了更多的看涨信心。 01 地缘冲突升级， 黄金资产成为最强避风港 这轮黄金大涨并非单一因素驱动，而是地缘风险、货币政策、央行配置与美元信用重构多重力量交织的 结果，共同铸就了这场贵金属盛宴。 其中，近期地缘冲突升级，刺激避险资金"疯狂涌入"是首要因素。 最近，美国总统特朗普以国家安 ...