声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月2日，材料ETF（159944）开盘涨1.43%，报1.846元。材料ETF（159944）重仓股方面，紫金矿业开 盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，万华化学涨0.11%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，盐湖股份涨1.05%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%。 材料ETF（159944）业绩比较基准为中证全指原材料指数，管理人为广发基金管理有限公司，基金经理 为姚曦，成立（2015-06-25）以来回报为82.05%，近一个月回报为3.93%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 3月2日，有色ETF汇添富（159652）开盘涨2.64%，报2.136元。有色ETF汇添富（159652）重仓股方 面，紫金矿业开盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%，中金黄金涨6.16%，天齐锂业跌 1.08%。 有色ETF汇添富（159652）业绩比较基准为中证细分有色金属产业主题指数收益率，管理人为汇添富基 金管理股份有限公司，基金经理为董瑾、孙浩，成立（2023-01-16）以来回报为107.95%，近一个月回 报为0.63%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and the performance of strategic metals is expected to be promising. The ongoing risks from the Israel-Iran conflict are significant, and the safe-haven attributes of precious metals are likely to provide substantial support for their prices. In the industrial metals sector, there was a significant accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories during the Spring Festival. As downstream production resumes, the demand during the peak season will be tested, with a focus on the inventory reduction speed post-holiday, which will determine the strength of industrial product prices [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Geopolitical premiums are increasing, and strategic metals are expected to perform well. The recent military actions between the US and Israel against Iran have led to a halt in oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, which may elevate inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. The ongoing conflict poses uncontrollable risks, supporting precious metal prices. In the industrial metals sector, significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be tested as production resumes [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, ranking second among all industries [27][19]. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) [4] 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are supported by rising geopolitical premiums. As of February 27, SHFE gold rose by 3.41% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 4.12% to 5,280.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold decreased slightly, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces [14][30][57] 4. Copper - Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton on SHFE as of February 27. The supply side remains tight, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The focus is on the inventory reduction speed as production resumes [17][28][72] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton on SHFE. Supply concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions, which may support aluminum prices. The operating rate for aluminum processing has recovered, and inventory levels have increased significantly [16][87][83]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77% in the week from February 23 to February 27, outperforming the overall market [14] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals [4][48] - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases as the traditional peak season approaches in March and April, with macro funds returning to the market [29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.98%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking second among 31 sectors, up 9.77% [14] - The small metals sector surged by 17.72%, while energy metals, new materials, precious metals, and industrial metals also saw increases of 9.32%, 9.26%, 8.32%, and 7.75% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of February 27, LME copper closed at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥103,920 per ton, up 3.53% [33] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $3,142 per ton, up 1.26%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥23,835 per ton, up 2.76% [37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price was $3,308 per ton, down 2.20%, while SHFE zinc was ¥24,710 per ton, up 2.13% [41] - **Tin**: LME tin surged to $58,050 per ton, up 24.68%, and SHFE tin reached ¥453,240 per ton, up 24.04% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $5,296.40 per ounce, up 3.24%, and SHFE gold at ¥1,147.90 per gram, up 1.93% [49] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a spike in gold prices, with a peak of $5,500 per ounce observed in the dark market [4][48] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening as domestic smelters are expected to undergo maintenance starting in March, while demand is supported by rigid replenishment needs post-Spring Festival [33] - Aluminum supply is affected by overseas production cuts, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.32 million tons in China [39] - The overall demand for aluminum is expected to rise as downstream production resumes [39] Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, above the expected 2.6%, indicating rising inflation concerns [4][29] - The Chicago PMI for February was reported at 57.7, exceeding expectations, which may influence future monetary policy [29]

地缘政治冲突驱动贵金属和稀有金属价格上涨，避险情绪利好贵金属， 战争消耗品逻辑下，稀土和钨等小金属因海外短缺和国内主导而受益， 尤其关注锑、锗、镓等军用相关品种。 空天作战对重稀土需求旺盛，镝、铽、钇等元素尤为稀缺，中国掌握高 纯工艺，出口管制导致海外氧化钇价格暴涨至国内 80 多倍，加剧美国 战斗机"难产"和日本氧化锆产业链停产风险。 重稀土海外报价仍有显著上行空间，国内价格相对稳定，应关注具备 "深加工顺价"能力的氧化锆瓷块产业链，如爱迪特与国瓷材料，美伊 冲突强化军工消耗预期，可能加剧氧化钇、氧化铽等品种的稀缺性。 轻稀土供需格局因政策变化而显著改变，基本面强劲，上半年供给收缩 确定，氧化钕价格预计仍有较大上涨空间，市场对稀土全产业链的主导 地位与战略属性再认识提升了估值容忍度。 陆地战中钨作为穿甲弹核心材料受益，中国掌控全球 85%的钨供给，国 内矿山品位下滑，制造业刀具需求复苏，钨精矿价格有望突破 120 万元 /吨，关注中钨高新、厦门钨业等。 Q&A 在美伊冲突背景下，资源品板块的核心投资机会如何把握，主要逻辑链条是什 么？ 无论美伊冲突持续时间长短及最终收尾方式，对资源品板块整体均构成"戴维 斯 ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有色周报：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现 可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现可期。伊以冲突爆发后，继续升温的不可控风 险仍然较大，避险属性预期对贵金属价格将形成明显支撑。工业金属方面，春节期间铜 铝库存大幅累积，随着下游进入复工复产，旺季需求成色将迎来检验，重点关注节后复 工的去库速度，将决定节后工业品价格强度。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec. ...

信任命 2026 年 03 月 01 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 海外扰动增加，金属价格强势 金属&新材料行业周报 20260223-20260227 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 我研究报 o 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，2 月 13 日环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.98%，深证成指上涨 2.80%，沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，有色 金属（申万）指数上涨 9.77%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 8.69 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 8.32%，铝上涨 5.89%，能源金属上涨 9.32%，小金属上涨 17.72 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven, suggesting a strong long-term investment value in this sector [2]. - Despite a significant increase in copper inventories, the price remains strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve initiatives from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but overall demand is anticipated to recover as downstream production resumes [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills, indicating a positive outlook for the nickel market [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [8]. - Lithium prices are rising sharply due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are also showing strength as demand from precursor companies increases, with expectations of a stable recovery in the market [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the benefits of precious metals in times of geopolitical uncertainty, recommending companies such as Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a 32,200-ton increase in global copper inventories but emphasizes that prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and ongoing demand [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a significant inventory build-up, but demand is expected to recover as production resumes post-holiday [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel mills [5]. - **Tin**: The report indicates that tin prices may experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns from Myanmar [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have increased by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, with demand from precursor companies showing signs of recovery [10].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 03 月 01 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 海外扰动增加，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260223-20260227 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，2 月 13 日环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.98%，深证成指上涨 2.80%，沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，有色 金属（申万）指数上涨 9.77%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 8.69 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 8.32%，铝上涨 5.89 ...