1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate repeatedly; silicon iron and manganese silicon will have wide - range oscillations due to commodity sentiment resonance; coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate at a high level; coking coal will experience high - level oscillations due to event - related fermentation; thermal coal is in a weak supply - demand balance, and coal prices will have narrow - range fluctuations before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures RB2605, the closing price was 3,128 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, and the position decreased by 51,270 lots. For hot - rolled coil futures HC2605, the closing price was 3,288 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, and the position decreased by 17,466 lots. In terms of spot prices, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase and decrease. The basis of RB2605 increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 29, steel production increased, inventory of rebar increased while that of hot - rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased. In December, the production of medium - thick plate mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - and cold - rolling mills decreased. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key iron and steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel products increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities showed different changes. BHP Billiton's iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0 [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: For silicon iron 2603, the closing price was 5660 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2605, the closing price was 5646 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 58 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2603, the closing price was 5842 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2605, the closing price was 5872 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5330 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese silicon FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Two departments planned to increase the proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity - based electricity prices. The prices and production of silicon iron, manganese silicon, and manganese ore in different regions and enterprises changed. The average monthly operating rate and output of silicon iron in January decreased. Some steel mills issued招标 announcements and determined procurement prices for silicon iron and manganese silicon. As of January 30, the manganese ore inventory increased [9][10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures JM2605, the closing price was 1155.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.8%. For coke futures J2605, the closing price was 1721.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.1%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spread also changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resource Network was released. The online auction of coking coal had a lower non - successful bid rate and an average premium of 31.25 yuan/ton. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was not high [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of thermal coal in different producing areas, ports, and overseas regions, as well as the February long - term agreement prices, showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In January, the demand for thermal coal was in the peak season, and the price fluctuated. The provincial energy work conferences in various places set the direction for 2026 energy work. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association said that the government's production quota cuts might lead to mine closures [21].

| 硅铁：商品情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | | --- | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，宽幅震荡 2026 年 2 月 2 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1、财联社：【两部门】将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于 50%，完善电力市 场交易和价格机制 鼓励供需双方在中长期合同中签订随市场供需、发电成本变化的灵活价格机制。 2、铁合金在线：1 月 30 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5300-5400（+25），青海 5250-5300 （+25），甘肃 5250-5300（+25），内蒙 5300-5350（+50）；75#硅铁：陕西 5850-5900，宁夏 5700- 5800，青海 5700-5800，甘肃 5650-5700，内蒙 5800-585 ...

1. 新能源汽车轻量化：单车用铝量激增133% 在"双碳"目标驱动下，全球新能源汽车产业进入爆发期。2026年全球新能源汽车销量预计突破2250万 辆，单车用铝量达187公斤（较传统燃油车增长133%），仅此一项就将拉动400万吨原铝需求。特斯拉 Model Y采用的一体化压铸技术，更将单车用铝量推高至250公斤以上，成为行业标杆。 2026年1月29日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铝价一举突破3300美元/吨，创下2022年4月以来新高，较 2025年9月低点累计涨幅达27%。这场由新能源需求爆发、全球库存见底、资金情绪外溢共同推动的铝 价狂欢，正在重塑全球工业金属的定价逻辑。本文将从供需基本面、资金博弈、地缘政治三重维度，解 析本轮铝价上涨的核心逻辑，并探讨其可持续性。 长江有色金属网数据显示，长江现货A00伦敦报价每吨24860元，单日上涨600元/吨，现货市场追高力度 在增强，持货商挺价惜售情绪浓烈，但由于高价货源难出，跟随市场逐步调价，早间交投氛围偏暖带动 成交活跃度。 一、新能源革命：铝从"工业配角"到"新经济核心"的蜕变 2. 光伏产业：每GW装机消耗2万吨铝型材 全球光伏装机量持续攀升，2026年 ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 澳大利亚股市于周二早盘走高， S&P/ASX 200 基准指数上涨 0.8%，报 8930.40 点。 在市值不低于 150 亿澳元（约合 103.7 亿美元）的澳大利亚本土企业中，必和必拓集团（BHP Group） 为本交易日早盘领涨龙头，股价上涨 3.0%；South32涨幅达 2.8%；瑞尔集团（REA Group）以 2.6% 的 涨幅跻身早盘涨幅榜前三。 皮尔巴拉矿业集团（PLS Group）是早盘跌幅最大的个股，股价下跌 1.7%；澳洲航空与Scentre Group紧 随其后，均下跌 0.9%。 外汇市场方面，美元指数持平于 94.69；美元兑澳元汇率稳定在 1 美元兑换 1.45 澳元。 债券市场上，澳大利亚 10 年期国债收益率上涨 0.86 个基点，报 4.822%。 责任编辑：王永生 澳大利亚股市于周二早盘走高， S&P/ASX 200 基准指数上涨 0.8%，报 8930.40 点。 在市值不低于 150 亿澳元（约合 103.7 亿美元）的澳大利亚本土企业中，必和必拓集团（BHP Group） 为本交易日 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Aluminium and Alumina - **Current Price Trends**: LME aluminium prices have rallied to over $3,000 per tonne, driven by tightening fundamentals, supply disruptions, and increased net speculative positioning [2][3] Aluminium Market Insights - **Demand Growth**: Primary aluminium demand is expected to grow at approximately 2.5% in 2025, slightly below the trend of 3-4%, leading to a modest surplus in the market [3] - **Supply Constraints**: Supply growth is limited, particularly in China where smelter run rates are at the 45 million tonnes capacity cap. Future growth from Indonesia is expected to be measured, with restarts in Europe and the US offset by closures [3][9] - **Price Outlook**: The LME price is above the cost curve, indicating an improving supply-demand outlook. A balanced global market is anticipated in 2026, with medium-term price risks skewed to the upside as demand improves [3][21] Alumina Market Insights - **Price Trends**: Alumina prices are currently around $300 per tonne, reflecting a bearish outlook due to significant overcapacity in China and new capacity additions in Indonesia and India [4][39] - **Capacity Additions**: China is expected to add over 10 million tonnes of new alumina capacity in 2026, contributing to the existing overcapacity [4][47] - **Fundamental Challenges**: Despite low prices, the outlook for alumina remains challenging due to limited growth in global aluminium output and low capacity utilization in China [39][46] Regional Supply Dynamics - **China**: Expected to produce 44.5 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2025, with negligible growth beyond that due to the 45 million tonnes capacity cap [27][28] - **Indonesia**: Anticipated to be the largest contributor to global supply growth, with projects expected to add approximately 3 million tonnes of new supply over the next 2-3 years [13][14] - **Europe and US**: Several smelters are in the process of restarting, but material production increases are unlikely due to high costs and market conditions [22][23] Investment Insights - **Equity Performance**: AA has outperformed NHY, driven by potential catalysts such as Canadian tariff exemptions and improved cash returns. Valuations for aluminium are generally undemanding, with NHY seen as more valuable compared to AA [5] - **Investment Recommendations**: Continued buying interest in companies like Hongqiao and Press Metal is noted, with a cautious approach towards AA due to stretched valuations [5] Additional Considerations - **Power Constraints**: The aluminium smelting process is highly power-intensive, and the availability of power in Indonesia may constrain growth. The planned increase in aluminium smelting capacity will require significant growth in national power output [15][16] - **Bauxite Supply**: China's dependence on imported bauxite from Guinea poses risks, but increased imports and stabilization of domestic production are expected to support alumina output [46][47] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the aluminium and alumina markets, highlighting both opportunities and challenges within the industry.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The cost of ferrosilicon is expected to rise, and it will fluctuate widely; the raw material price of silicomanganese is slightly adjusted, and it will also fluctuate widely [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603, ferrosilicon 2605, silicomanganese 2603, and silicomanganese 2605 are 5610, 5586, 5772, and 5814 respectively. Their trading volumes are 108,864, 35,054, 71,826, and 141,601 respectively, and their open interests are 232,311, 85,154, 195,831, and 356,074 respectively [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton (+20.0), the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 42.7 yuan/ton - degree (-0.1), and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of ferrosilicon (spot - 03 futures) is - 310 yuan/ton (-34), and that of silicomanganese is - 92 yuan/ton (-24). The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2603 - 2605 is 24 yuan/ton (+10), and that of silicomanganese 2603 - 2605 is - 42 yuan/ton (-4). The cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 is 162 yuan/ton (-30), and that of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 228 yuan/ton (-16) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Price News**: On January 22, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1060 - 1080 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 was 1100 - 1140 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton (+25) [1] - **South32 Manganese Ore Report**: South32's South African manganese ore salable output in Q4 2025 was 506,000 wet tons (down 8% quarter - on - quarter), and the sales volume was 546,000 tons (down 0.37% quarter - on - quarter). The Australian manganese ore salable output was 806,000 tons (down 5.62% quarter - on - quarter), and the sales volume was 865,000 tons (down 8.37% quarter - on - quarter). The 2026 fiscal year output guidance of South African manganese ore remains 2 million tons, and further maintenance work is planned for Q1 2026. The 2026 fiscal year output guidance of Australian manganese ore remains 3.2 million tons, but the impact of the rainy season needs to be considered [1][3] - **Steel Mill Procurement News**: A steel mill in Jiangsu set the price of silicomanganese at 5800 yuan/ton (acceptance tax - included delivered to the factory) with a procurement volume of 700 tons. A steel mill in Shandong set the price at 5720 yuan/ton (cash tax - included delivered to the factory) with a procurement volume of 2000 tons. An East China steel mill group set the price in the East China region at 5848 - 5850 yuan/ton and in the South China region at 5950 yuan/ton. Another East China steel mill set the price at 5848 yuan/ton [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and re - discount rates has boosted market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the demand is affected by the off - season of the steel market, and the supply side shows a decline in global shipments and arrivals. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: This week's data shows that the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory increased, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased while inventory increased. The production remained basically unchanged. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough, with a small rebound in the short term and strong resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position, and add positions at low prices when the futures price falls to the lower edge of the shock range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, the apparent demand decreased, and the inventory increased. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel's apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. The accident of a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments continued to decline, and arrivals decreased. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After breaking through the recent shock range, the futures price rose strongly but has adjusted significantly in recent days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and back to the upper edge of the previous shock range. It may have some support here, but the upward trend may end, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In mid - January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly, down 0.3% month - on - month, 1.7% lower than at the beginning of the year, and 5.2% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Fenix Resources, an Australian iron ore producer, increased its mining and shipping volume in Q4 2025 and raised its shipping target for fiscal year 2026 [6]. - As of the week of January 22, the production and factory inventory of threaded rods increased, the social inventory increased for the third consecutive week, and the apparent demand decreased [6]. - South32's Australian manganese industry had a decrease in manganese ore production in Q4 2025 but an increase in sales. The annual output guidance for 2026 remains unchanged [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton this week [7]. - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased, and the theoretical profit of soda ash decreased [7].

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：具备向上弹性 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交易重心上移 | 13 | | 钯：跟随上行 | 13 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 15 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：去库格局延续，偏强震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强 | 19 | | 多晶硅：注册仓单增加 | 19 | | 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：区间震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 ...

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：市场情绪偏弱，短期价格弱调整 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 786. 5 | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | | 2.5 | 0. 32% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓 ...

Core Insights - Riverside Resources Inc. and Questcorp Mining Inc. reported high-grade results from the Union Mine area, including 20.2 g/t Au and 226 g/t Ag with 2.7% Zn over a 30 m continuous chip-channel sampling [1][4][5] - The results from the Phase 1 drill program indicate successful intersections of CRD-style mineralization across multiple target areas, reinforcing the potential for further exploration [3][5][21] Chip-Channel Sampling and Drill Results - The chip-channel sampling at the Union Mine returned significant grades, supporting the potential for follow-up exploration and drilling from both surface and upper mine workings [4][5] - The full assay results from the 30 m channel sampling indicate a total of 202 g of gold, 2,257 g of silver, and 26,720 g of zinc [6][20] - The Phase 1 drill program included 12 holes, with the final six holes reporting positive results across the Union Mine, Union Norte, and El Cobre target areas [5][20] Geological Context and Comparisons - The mineralization found at the Union Project is comparable to the CRD systems in the region, particularly the Hermosa Project, where South32 is investing significantly [4][5] - The sediment-hosted gold indicators found in the Union Mine area suggest potential for further discoveries, similar to those in Nevada's Carlin deposits [15][22] Future Exploration Plans - The companies plan to initiate a Phase 2 exploration program in the first half of 2026, which will include follow-up drilling and additional geophysical and geochemical studies [23][25] - The Luis Hill target has shown promising results, indicating the potential for a major new discovery in Mexico, with further drilling planned to explore this area [15][16][24] Company Background - Riverside Resources Inc. is a well-funded exploration company with a strong portfolio of gold-silver and copper assets, holding over C$6,000,000 in cash and no debt [29]