Group 1 - The passenger car sector increased by 1.81% compared to the previous trading day, with Beiqi Blue Valley leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Major stocks in the passenger car sector showed varying performance, with Beiqi Blue Valley closing at 8.27, up 3.89%, and BYD at 89.14, up 2.03% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the passenger car sector was 988 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 541 million yuan [1] - The fund flow data indicates that BYD had a main fund net inflow of 457.1 million yuan, but a retail net outflow of 219 million yuan [2] - Beiqi Blue Valley experienced a main fund net inflow of 200 million yuan, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 11.07 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article predicts a 25% growth in sales for Chinese new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers by 2025, aligning with the growth expectations set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in December 2025 is expected to lead to a recovery period in January 2026, with some consumers likely to make purchases in December to benefit from the policy [2]. - January 2023 saw a decline of 8% in new energy vehicle sales due to the withdrawal of subsidies, while January 2024 experienced a positive growth despite the anticipated policy changes [2]. - The late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival and contributions from exports have positively influenced January's sales performance [2]. Group 2: Sales Data - According to the latest data from the Passenger Car Association, manufacturers with sales exceeding 10,000 units in December accounted for 93% of the total new energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales for that month [3]. - Preliminary data for January indicates that these manufacturers achieved sales of 830,000 units, leading to an estimated total of 900,000 new energy passenger vehicles sold nationwide in January, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth [4][3]. Group 3: Leading Manufacturers - Key manufacturers such as GAC Aion, XPeng Motors, and Great Wall Motors reported significant sales figures in January, with GAC Aion leading at 21,635 units sold [8]. - Other notable performances include XPeng Motors with 20,011 units, Great Wall Motors with 18,019 units, and FAW Hongqi with 8,265 units [8]. - The total estimated sales for manufacturers exceeding 10,000 units in January amounted to 832,461, representing 93% of the total market share for that month [8].

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 个人汽车贷款证券化 个人汽车贷款 ABS 产品发行规模下降，中资 及中外合资汽车金融公司发行占比上升；需关 注资产特征演变及发起机构风控差异等对产 品表现的影响 ——个人汽车贷款证券化 2025 年度运营报告及 2026 年度展望 要点： 联络人 作者 结构融资一部 唐嘉欣 010-66428877 jxtang@ccxi.com.cn 李 睿 010-66428877-475 rli@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 结构融资一部 评级总监 杨 威 010-66428877-361 wyang@ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 要点 1 正文 2 结论 13 附表 14 行业方面，受益于汽车行业政策逐步落地，叠加出口较快增长， 2025 年汽车产销量整体继续上升，其中新能源汽车销量占比进一 步增长；随着"高息高返"模式陆续叫停，汽车金融行业整体稳健 发展。 发行方面，2025 年，银行间市场共发行车贷 ABS 产品 32 单，与 上年持平；发行规模 1,185.43 亿元，较上年下降 8.58%，但在信贷 资产证券化中仍位居首位；其中 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 汽车行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 智能驾驶加速推进，建议关注业绩期行情 月度产销：根据乘联会数据，1 月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为 180 万辆， 环比下降 20.4%，同比增长 0.3%。其中新能源零售量预计为 80 万左右，渗 透率约 44.4%。12 月全国乘用车市场零售 226.1 万辆，同比下降 14.0%，环 比增长 1.6%。2025 年累计零售 2,374.4 万辆，同比增长 3.8%。12 月全国乘 用车厂商批发 278.9 万辆，同比下降 9.0%，环比下降 7.0%；2025 年累计批 发 2,955.4 万辆，同比增长 8.8%。根据中汽协数据，12 月汽车产销分别完 成 329.6 万辆和 327.2 万辆，环比分别下降 6.7%和 4.6%，同比分别下降 2.1% 和 6.2%。2025 年，汽车产销分别完成 3453.1 万辆和 3440 万辆，同比分别 增长 10.4%和 9.4%。2025 年 12 月，乘用车产销分别完成 287.9 万辆和 284.7 万辆，环比分别下降 8.4%和 6.3%，同比分别下降 4.2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market in January 2026 is characterized by a stark contrast, with most automakers experiencing negative growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, highlighting the importance of having a diversified product lineup that includes both fuel and electric vehicles [5][6][7]. Sales Performance Summary - In January, the retail sales of passenger cars are expected to reach 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decline of 20.4%, with NEV sales around 800,000 units, marking a penetration rate drop to 44.4%, nearly 10 percentage points lower than the peak at the end of 2025 [6][7]. - Traditional automakers like SAIC, Geely, and GAC Toyota reported stable sales due to their dual strategy of offering both fuel and NEVs, with SAIC's total sales reaching 327,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [10][11]. - Geely's total sales were 270,167 units, with fuel vehicles contributing significantly to its performance, while BYD faced a 30.11% decline in NEV sales, indicating the challenges faced by companies heavily reliant on NEVs [12][15]. Market Dynamics - The differentiation in sales performance among automakers is attributed to their strategic choices, particularly the presence of a fuel vehicle base, which enhances resilience against market fluctuations [9][19]. - The demand for fuel vehicles surged during the pre-Spring Festival period, as consumers preferred mature technology and the convenience of fuel vehicles for long-distance travel, further supported by the limited impact of policy changes on fuel vehicles [19][20]. Export Growth - Exports have become a crucial support for many leading automakers, with companies like Chery and SAIC reporting significant increases in overseas sales, indicating a dual strategy of maintaining domestic stability while expanding globally [17][18]. Future Outlook - The current market conditions signal a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics, emphasizing the need for automakers to maintain a balanced portfolio of fuel and NEVs to navigate future uncertainties [22]. - Companies that can effectively manage their fuel vehicle base while rapidly advancing in the NEV sector are likely to emerge as market leaders, while those focusing solely on NEVs may face greater risks during market fluctuations [21][22].

Overall Market - In 2025, China's automotive industry achieved record production and sales, with 34.53 million vehicles produced and 34.40 million sold, marking year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, driven by policy support and market dynamics [1][5] - The market demonstrated strong resilience against global trade protectionism, supply chain restructuring, and intensified competition [1] Market Dynamics - The "Two New" policy expanded consumer goods categories and support for equipment upgrades, stimulating vehicle replacement demand, particularly in lower-tier cities [5] - The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) was facilitated by stable tax policies and improved charging infrastructure, lowering barriers for potential EV buyers [5] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards intelligent features and green travel, pushing the market towards higher quality development [5] Segmented Market - In 2025, new energy vehicles (NEVs) became the dominant growth segment, with production and sales reaching 16.63 million and 16.49 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [6] - NEVs accounted for 47.9% of total new vehicle sales, a 7 percentage point increase from the previous year [6] - The traditional fuel vehicle market is undergoing structural adjustments, with demand for high-displacement, high-fuel-consumption models declining, while smaller, hybrid models remain popular [10] Market Structure - Domestic brands solidified their leading position, with their market share exceeding 60% for the first time, driven by strong performances from companies like BYD, Geely, and Changan [13][15] - BYD led the market with over 4.6 million units sold, benefiting from its technological advancements in NEVs [15] - Joint venture brands faced significant pressure, with declining market shares due to slow adaptation to the NEV market and product homogenization [16] Export Market - In 2025, China's automotive exports exceeded 7 million units, achieving a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, maintaining its position as the world's largest automotive exporter for three consecutive years [18] - Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America remain key destinations for Chinese automotive exports, with NEVs becoming a significant export category [18] Sales Rankings - The top ten automotive brands in 2025 showcased a strong performance from domestic brands, with five spots occupied by them, and a combined market share of 37.3% [21] - BYD, Geely, and Changan maintained their positions through a dual strategy of fuel and NEV offerings [21] - Traditional joint venture brands like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen continued to experience declines, unable to offset losses from fuel vehicle sales with NEV growth [21] Emerging Brands - New entrants like Leap Motor and Hongmeng Zhixing showed remarkable growth, with Leap Motor doubling its sales through self-developed technology and competitive pricing [23] - Traditional automakers' NEV sub-brands also performed well, rapidly capturing market share through targeted strategies [23] Consumer Trends - Successful models in 2025 aligned with market trends, focusing on price adaptability, user needs, and technological highlights [24] - Family and young consumers emerged as core target groups, with vehicles designed for spaciousness and smart features gaining popularity [26] - The integration of new energy and intelligent technologies became essential for popular models, addressing consumer concerns about range and charging [26] Future Outlook - The strong rise of NEVs indicates China's automotive industry is positioned advantageously in the global transformation of the sector [28] - Continued policy support for NEVs and smart vehicles is expected, alongside growing consumer demand for high-quality, intelligent products [28] - The industry is likely to see further integration across the supply chain, enhancing competitiveness [28]

数说新能源 欢迎订购数说新能源2026年月度电池装机数据库和中国汽车上险数据库 联系方式：13220160736（同微信） 一、 1月份行业总体数据与特点 二、 主要主机厂2026年1月销量及动态分析 1、总量下滑，结构分化严重： 全行业：预计1月销量同比有明显下滑，幅度在两位数左右。 内销：显著下滑，是拖累全行业下行的主因。 出口：延续高增长，增速预计在30%-50%，表现强劲。 总结为"三好一差"：出口好、燃油车好、新车型多的企业好；新能源车内销差。 2、内销下滑原因分析： 核心原因：补贴退坡。1月起，新能源汽车和燃油车的"以旧换新"补贴均下降，其中新能源汽车退坡更多，因此 内销下滑主要由新能源汽车引起。 成本压力：原材料（铜、铝、碳酸锂、存储芯片）成本显著上涨，对智能化程度较高的新能源汽车成本冲击尤其 大。 主流车企主动策略：在成本上涨背景下，行业并未大规模打"价格战"，而是选择"保价保利润"，这对行业是相对 利好的。 3、出口高增长原因分析： 延续了2024年下半年的高增长趋势（去年11、12月增速40-50%）。 背后核心原因是中国车企在海外市场和渠道的全面扩张。 4、其他结构性亮点： 燃油车表现较 ...

交银国际发布研报称，长城汽车（601633）(02333)去年营收2,227.9亿元人民币(下同)，同比增长 10.2%，纯利跌21.7%至99.12亿元，主要受直营渠道建设及新品/品牌投放前置拖累。公司去年第四季营 收692.1亿元创新高，但纯利仅12.77亿元，按季跌44%，主因一次性计提年终奖(预提46亿元)叠加直营与 广告投入、新店爬坡。展望2026年，该行料长汽盈利弹性取决于提效，海外挑战60万辆与直营提效带动 利润修复。该行维持对长汽的"买入"评级，目标价22.5港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，长城汽车(02333)去年营收2,227.9亿元人民币(下同)，同比增 长10.2%，纯利跌21.7%至99.12亿元，主要受直营渠道建设及新品/品牌投放前置拖累。公司去年第四季 营收692.1亿元创新高，但纯利仅12.77亿元，按季跌44%，主因一次性计提年终奖(预提46亿元)叠加直营 与广告投入、新店爬坡。展望2026年，该行料长汽盈利弹性取决于提效，海外挑战60万辆与直营提效带 动利润修复。该行维持对长汽的"买入"评级，目标价22.5港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China experienced a significant month-on-month decline in January 2026, influenced by changes in tax policies and early consumer demand, while year-on-year sales remained relatively stable [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China were approximately 1.8 million units, representing a month-on-month decrease of 20.4% and a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1]. - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in January were around 800,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 40.2%, but a month-on-month growth of 7.5% [1]. - Major traditional automakers like SAIC and Geely surpassed BYD in sales, with SAIC selling 327,000 units (up 23.9% year-on-year) and Geely selling 270,200 units (up 1.3% year-on-year) [2]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Segment - In the new energy vehicle sector, brands like Xiaomi, Hongmeng Zhixing, and NIO saw significant year-on-year growth, with Xiaomi's sales increasing by 95% to over 39,000 units [3][4]. - NIO delivered 27,200 units in January, marking a 96% year-on-year increase, driven by the new ES8 model [4]. - Conversely, companies like XPeng and Li Auto experienced declines, with XPeng's deliveries down 47% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost Pressures - The automotive industry is facing rising costs, with single-vehicle costs increasing by 4,000 to 7,000 yuan due to surging prices of key materials like lithium, aluminum, and DRAM [5][6]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 75,700 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2025 to 146,600 yuan per ton by February 3, 2026, a nearly 94% increase [5]. - UBS reported that the cost increases in metals and chips could compress profit margins significantly, with potential reductions of 33% to 93% for vehicles priced at 150,000 yuan [6]. Group 4: Strategic Directions - To counteract rising costs and stagnant market demand, automakers are focusing on international expansion, with Chery exporting 119,600 units in January, accounting for nearly 60% of its total sales [7]. - BYD's overseas sales exceeded 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%, while Geely's exports grew by over 120% [7]. - Companies are also targeting the high-end market, with Great Wall Motors launching the WEY brand's flagship V9X, indicating a competitive push in the premium segment [9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The automotive consumption index for January 2026 was reported at 31.1, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment influenced by various factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival and changes in tax policies [10]. - Industry experts suggest that the market may not see a clear recovery until March or the end of the first quarter [10].