Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Telecom ETF Huatai (560300), which opened with a gain of 1.29% at 2.040 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF showed varied performance, with China Mobile up 0.06%, China Unicom up 0.41%, China Telecom up 0.35%, and China Satcom up 2.09% [1] - Notable gainers included Zhongji Xuchuang up 3.89%, Yinzhijie up 0.59%, Xinyi Sheng up 4.37%, ZTE up 1.35%, Tianfu Communication up 9.50%, and Zhongtian Technology up 4.75% [1] Group 2 - The performance benchmark for the Telecom ETF Huatai is the CSI Telecom Theme Index return [1] - The fund is managed by Huatai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with manager Wei Lizhu [1] - Since its establishment on December 5, 2023, the fund has achieved a return of 101.53%, while the return over the past month has been -5.46% [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between different time cycles in momentum analysis, highlighting that many individuals overlook this aspect and focus solely on the visual conformity of charts [1] - It explains the relationships between various momentum indicators, such as RSL (144 days), VAD (21 days), and OVS (2-4 days), indicating that RSL represents long-term momentum, VAD represents medium-term momentum, and OVS represents short-term momentum [1] - The article notes that the hierarchical relationship between long, medium, and short-term indicators is approximately 5-7 times, which is rooted in the principles of Chan theory, where a coherent segment requires at least 5 candlesticks [1] Group 2 - The article uses the example of Zhongji Xuchuang to illustrate the differences in momentum divergence observed in long and medium-term indicators, indicating that RSL shows a clear downward momentum while remaining above the zero axis, suggesting a secondary level of momentum divergence [2][3] - It clarifies that for VAD to be considered a divergence at its level, it must show a peak decline and subsequently form a new peak, which is not the case in certain scenarios discussed [3][4] - The article stresses that the nature and severity of pullbacks caused by divergences differ across time frames, with a layered time-space model reflecting human behavioral patterns influenced by various time habits [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the communication and AI computing chain, including沃尔核材, 奥飞数据, 锐捷网络, 中国移动, 新易盛, 中际旭创, 万国数据, 天孚通信, and 亨通光电 [8][39]. Core Insights - The North American cloud service providers (CSPs) have shown a significant increase in capital expenditures, with a year-on-year growth of 66.64% in Q4 2025, totaling $117.6 billion. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with a projected capital expenditure of $570.77 billion, reflecting a 53.2% increase [2][12][13]. - Major CSPs such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google are optimistic about their capital spending for 2026, with Microsoft estimating $115.2 billion, Amazon $161.3 billion, Meta $123.7 billion, and Google $170.5 billion [2][12][13]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the global AI computing chain, including components like optical modules, liquid cooling, copper connections, and switches, driven by the increasing demand for computing power [1][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index fell by 6.95% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.27% and 2.11%, respectively [1][11]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report identifies a primary investment theme in the communication industry for 2026, focusing on the AI computing chain, with recommended companies including 中际旭创, 新易盛, 天孚通信, and others [3]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the four major North American cloud providers, collectively known as MAMG, which includes Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, with a total capital expenditure of $372.55 billion in 2025 [2][12]. Company Recommendations - Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market position, including: - 沃尔核材 (Target Price: 43.21) [39] - 奥飞数据 (Target Price: 31.17) [39] - 锐捷网络 (Target Price: 102.51) [39] - 中国移动 (Target Price: 126.20) [39] - 新易盛 (Target Price: 476.71) [39] - 中际旭创 (Target Price: 626.68) [39] - 万国数据 (Target Price: 45.83) [39] - 天孚通信 (Target Price: 211.92) [39] - 亨通光电 (Target Price: 25.73) [39]

[Table_Title] 四季度主动权益基金主动加仓前四大行业： 金属、化学品、保险和机械设备 金融工程丨深度报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 与 2025 年三季报相比，2025 年四季度主动权益基金增持最多的四个行业为电信业务（1.90 pct）、金属材料及矿业（1.90pct）、化学品（1.10 pct）和保险（0.94 pct）。从主动调仓角度来 看，主动加仓最多的四个行业分别是金属材料及矿业（0.99 pct）、化学品（0.86 pct）、保险（0.77 pct）和机械设备（0.59 pct）。剔除行业主题基金影响后，主动加仓最多的四个行业分别是保险 （1.03pct）、金属材料及矿业（0.90pct）、化学品（0.86pct）和机械设备（0.62pct）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 覃川桃 杨凯杰 SAC：S0490513030001 SAC：S0490525080004 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 %% %% %% %% research. ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianfu Communication, one of the "three musketeers" in the optical module sector, saw its stock price surge by 17.76% to a record high of 297.9 CNY per share, reflecting its critical role in AI development [1][15]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, Tianfu Communication's stock exhibited a "roller coaster" performance, rising to 224 CNY per share by September 2025, then dropping to 146 CNY in October, a decline of over 30% from its peak, before gradually recovering [3][17]. - The stock price increased by 213.7% throughout the previous year, establishing the company as a "star" in the tech sector [3][17]. - In 2026, Tianfu Communication was the only one among its peers to see a price increase, with a year-to-date gain of 46.73% as of February 9, while its competitors experienced declines [3][17]. Industry Position - Tianfu Communication occupies a unique position in the AI computing supply chain, likened to selling high-quality flour and core ingredients rather than complete products, which allows it to avoid intense competition faced by companies selling finished optical modules [4][18]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI boom, as it provides essential components for high-speed optical modules, making it a preferred choice in the market [4][18]. Partnership with NVIDIA - The company's significant market position is bolstered by its deep partnership with NVIDIA, holding over 65% of the global 1.6T optical engine market and being the near-exclusive supplier for NVIDIA's Mellanox 1.6T silicon optical engines [5][20]. - The 1.6T optical module is crucial for next-generation AI data centers, enabling efficient collaboration among thousands of GPU chips [5][20]. - NVIDIA's CEO emphasized that AI infrastructure development is the "largest infrastructure project in human history," with major clients planning to spend approximately 650 billion USD in 2026, a 60% increase year-on-year, much of which will be directed towards NVIDIA's chips [5][20]. Financial Performance - Tianfu Communication's revenue reached 1.9 billion CNY in 2023 and is projected to grow to 3.25 billion CNY in 2024 [11][28]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.881 billion to 2.15 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 60% [12][29]. - Analysts have issued "buy" ratings, citing the company's strong revenue and profit growth potential amid surging market demand [13][29]. Founder and Company Background - The founder, Zou Zhinong, has seen his wealth rise to 66.5 billion CNY, making him the richest person in Yichun [9][24]. - Tianfu Communication was established in 2005 and became the first listed company in China's optical communication components sector in 2015, with revenues historically below 1 billion CNY until the recent surge in AI demand [11][28].

根据多家预告透露业绩变动原因，主要受益于终端客户对算力基础设施的强劲投入，市场需求快速增长带动产品出货量 提升。 2月9日，A股市场迎来强势开局，三大指数全线飘红。截至收盘，上证指数涨1.41%，深成指涨2.17%，创业板指涨 2.98%，沪深两市成交额2.25万亿。其中，光模块（CPO）板块成为当日最大亮点，以"易中天"为代表的板块内龙头个股 集体爆发，交易额位列全部A股前三名，其中，天孚通信高开高走，收盘大涨17.76%。此外，杰普特收获20cm涨停，光 库科技，炬光科技、蘅东光、德科立、仕佳光子等多股均呈现较好的增长态势。 | 序号 代码 | | | ● | 最新 | 涨幅% | 成交额↓ | 年初至今涨幅% | 总市值 市盈率(TTM) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300308 | 中际旭创 | t | 565.99 | 4.81 | 206亿 | -7.21 | 6289 Z | 73.55 | | 2 | 300502 | 新易盛 | 1 | 390.15 | 7.17 | 183亿 ...

沪深股通今日合计成交2730.05亿，其中贵州茅台和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，电子板块主力 资金净流入居首。 ETF成交方面，多只有色金属相关ETF份额大幅减少，其中有色金属ETF（512400）上周份额大减25.11亿份。龙虎榜方面，AI应用概 念股捷成股份今日2 0cm涨停，获三家一线游资（国泰海通证券三亚迎宾路、国泰海通证券上海江苏路、国盛证券宁波桑田路）合计买 入3.4 1亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1257. 68亿，深股通总成交金额为1472 .37亿。 | | 沪股運（ | 2月9日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 21.12 | | 2 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | 18.64 | | 3 | 601899 | 蒸等电,亚 | 17.62 | | 4 | 688256 | 寒武纪 | 16.76 | | 5 | 601318 | 中国平安 | 14.75 | | 6 | 600522 | 中天科技 ...

从沪股通前十大成交个股来看，贵州茅台位居首位；兆易创新和紫金矿业分居二、三位。 从深股通前十大成交个股来看，中际旭创位居首位；天孚通信和宁德时代分居二、三位。 二、板块个股主力大单资金 从板块表现来看，AI应用、化工、光伏、算力硬件等板块涨幅居前，油气板块跌幅居前。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1257.68亿，深股通总成交金额为1472.37亿。 | | 沪股通( | 2月9日 | ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | | 21.12 | | 2 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | | 18.64 | | 3 | 668109 | 紫等处,不 | | 17.62 | | 4 | 688256 | 其武纪 | | 16.76 | | 5 | 601318 | 中国平安 | | 14.75 | | 6 | 600522 | 中大科技 | | 13.73 | | 7 | 601138 | 工业富联 | | 13.01 | | 8 | 688041 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 273 billion, with Kweichow Moutai and Zhongji Xuchuang leading in individual stock trading volumes. The electronic sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while ETFs related to non-ferrous metals experienced significant reductions in shares [1][2][4]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Key Stocks - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 125.77 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect was 147.24 billion [2]. - Kweichow Moutai topped the Shanghai Stock Connect with a trading volume of 21.12 billion, followed by Zhaoyi Innovation at 18.64 billion and Sanfangxiang at 17.62 billion [3]. - Zhongji Xuchuang led the Shenzhen Stock Connect with a trading volume of 44.96 billion, followed by Tianfu Communication at 43.21 billion and CATL at 40.34 billion [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The electronic sector had the highest net inflow of funds at 75.51 billion, followed by the computer sector at 70.48 billion and the communication sector at 61.95 billion [4]. - The oil and gas sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds at -19.31 billion, followed by the food and beverage sector at -16.29 billion [5]. Group 3: ETF Trading Activity - The A500 ETF Fund (512050) had the highest trading volume at 14.18 billion, while the Gold ETF (518880) was second at 12.42 billion [6][7]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) saw a significant reduction of 25.11 billion shares last week, indicating a major decline in interest [10]. Group 4: Institutional and Retail Activity - Institutional activity was moderate, with notable purchases in Hunan Silver, which saw a 9.97% increase and received 1.82 billion from one institution [12][13]. - Retail investors showed increased activity in AI application stocks, particularly Jiecheng Co., which hit the daily limit and attracted 3.41 billion from three major retail investors [14].

沪深股通今日合计成交2730.05亿，其中贵州茅台和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，电子板块主力资金净流入居首。 ETF成交方面，多只有色金属相关ETF份额大幅减少，其中有色金属ETF（512400）上周份额大减25.11亿份。龙虎榜方面，AI应用概念股捷成股份今日20cm 涨停，获三家一线游资（国泰海通证券三亚迎宾路、国泰海通证券上海江苏路、国盛证券宁波桑田路）合计买入3.41亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1257.68亿，深股通总成交金额为1472.37亿。 | | 沪股運（ | 2月9日 | ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | | 21.12 | | 2 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | | 18.64 | | 3 | 601899 | 高等业,不 | | 17.62 | | ব | 688256 | 寒武纪 | | 16.76 | | 5 | 601318 | 中国平安 | | 14.75 | | 6 ...