1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in China all rebounded, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level remained in the expansion zone [2][17]. - The central bank has been precisely regulating the mid - year capital market, injecting sufficient liquidity. However, the capital market in July may be affected by fiscal factors [16]. - The bond market in China is experiencing a complex situation. The current bond market has high congestion, but the fundamentals and capital still support it, though the room for growth is limited [31]. - The A - share market rose on Monday, while the Hong Kong stock market declined, and the Taiwan stock market suffered a "stock - exchange double - kill" [33][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points [1][2][17]. - In May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.1%, 2.3%, and 7.9% respectively [1]. - In May 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In June, the three major PMI indexes in China rebounded, and the overall economic prosperity level remained in the expansion zone [2][17]. - From January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, eligible overseas investors can get a 10% tax credit for direct investment in China [2][18]. - Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates and said the US should pay an interest rate of 1% [3][21]. - On June 30, the Baltic Dry Index fell 2.10% to 1489 points, falling for four consecutive days [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The central bank issued regulations on anti - money laundering and anti - terrorist financing for precious metals and gemstone institutions [5]. - On June 27, zinc, copper, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased, while aluminum inventory increased [6]. - Citi expects the gold price to fall to $2500 - 2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [7]. - As of June 30, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings decreased by 0.24% [7]. - Japan's aluminum price premium for July - September is set at $108 per ton, down 41% from the current quarter [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In June 2025, the steel industry PMI was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, indicating continued pressure [9]. - Starting from July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [9]. - As the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches, Indonesia will relax or cancel import restrictions on ten categories of goods and raw materials [9]. - Japan plans to extract rare earth minerals from seabed deposits starting from January next year [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On July 1, domestic refined oil prices are expected to increase by about 230 yuan per ton [11]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August [11]. - The number of active oil drilling platforms in the US decreased by 6 to 432 last week [11]. - In May, Japan's crude oil imports increased by 13.9% year - on - year, while refined oil sales decreased [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects non - OPEC oil supply to grow strongly from 2025 to 2026, and the Brent crude oil price to fall to about $60 per barrel early next year [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Datagro estimates Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 1.691 billion tons and corn production at 1.269 billion tons [13]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1.382 million tons, up 4.7% year - on - year [14]. - US exporters sold 204,000 tons of bean cake and soybean meal [15]. - In 2025, the number of food products with price increases or planned price increases in Japan may exceed 20,000 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 30, the central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1110 billion yuan [16]. - The central bank's precise regulation has ensured sufficient liquidity, but the capital market in July may be affected by fiscal factors [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - In June, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs all rebounded [17]. - The Politburo emphasized the role of decision - making and coordinating institutions [18]. - Overseas investors can get a 10% tax credit for eligible direct investment in China from 2025 to 2028 [18]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued $3.08 billion in QDII investment quotas [18]. - In the third quarter, 11 issues of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [18]. - As of May, overseas institutions' bond holdings in China were 4.4 trillion yuan [19]. - On June 30, the "North - bound Swap Connect" product contract term was extended to 30 years [19]. - In the first half of 2025, the total bond market stock in China reached 188.11 trillion yuan [19]. - The issuance scale of green financial bonds in the inter - bank market has increased significantly this year [19]. - As of June 30, 387 science and technology innovation bonds were issued, with a scale exceeding 580 billion yuan [20][21]. - Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates [21]. - The US Treasury Secretary said there is no reason to increase the issuance of long - term treasury bonds [21]. - Some bond - related events such as rating changes, redemption, and litigation occurred [22]. - Some overseas credit ratings were confirmed or maintained [22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market declined, with bond yields rising and futures prices falling [24]. - Some bonds in the exchange bond market rose or fell slightly [24]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.35% [25]. - Most money market interest rates rose [26]. - US bond yields fell, and European bond yields mostly rose [27][28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 34 points, and the central parity rate rose 41 points [29]. - The US dollar index fell 0.50%, and non - US currencies mostly rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the bond market may have short - term profit - taking pressure but may rise in the medium - term [30]. - Huatai Fixed Income turns neutral and cautious on convertible bonds and suggests choosing relatively cheap varieties [31]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes the bond market is highly congested and has weak odds [31]. - CITIC Securities believes that new policy - based financial tools will support key areas [31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On July 1, 136 bonds will be listed, 86 bonds will be issued, 38 bonds will be paid, and 135 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market rose on Monday, with over 4000 stocks rising [33]. - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.87% [34]. - The Taiwan stock market suffered a "stock - exchange double - kill" [34]. - The IPO applications of 5 companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board were accepted [34]. - The IPO of Kaiyuan Securities was terminated [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 43 new stocks were listed in Hong Kong, and the funds raised exceeded that of 2024 [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 163 public funds conducted 40,093 research visits to 1943 A - share listed companies [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 1493 A - share companies planned 1984 merger and acquisition plans, with 102 being major reorganizations [36]. - The Zheng Yutong family in Hong Kong received HK$88.2 billion in refinancing [36].

Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net cash injection of 111 billion yuan after 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [7][8] - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.5%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity compared to May [2] - The bond market showed weakness with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.6490%, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment at the end of the quarter [9][10] Group 2: International Market Developments - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 10-year yield falling by 5 basis points to 4.24% [26] - The European bond market exhibited mixed trends, with Germany's 10-year yield remaining stable at 2.60%, while yields in France, Italy, and Spain increased slightly [29] Group 3: Corporate Debt and Restructuring - CIFI Holdings announced that its overseas debt restructuring plan was approved by the court, effective from June 27 [12] - Kaisa Group extended the deadline for its overseas debt restructuring plan to September 30, with a hearing postponed to October 6 [13] - Country Garden indicated that its overseas debt restructuring is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with over 75% of existing offshore noteholders joining the restructuring agreement [14]

地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/01 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价全线下跌，美油主力合约收跌 0.84%，报 64.97 美元/桶；布伦特 原油主力合约跌 0.25%，报 66.63 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.83%报 3315.00 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.11%报 36.33 美元/盎司。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME 期锌跌 1.37%报 2741.00 美元/吨，LME 期镍跌 0.79%报 15125.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜持平报 9878.00 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大豆期货涨 0.27%报 1027.50 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 0.61%报 409.00 美分/蒲式耳，小 麦期货跌 0.60%报 537.50 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国内期货主力合约有涨有跌。纯碱、玻璃跌超 2%，焦煤、烧碱跌近 2%，聚 氯乙烯（PVC）跌超 1%。涨幅方面，短纤 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy and Real Estate Market - **Key Economic Indicators**: - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.2%, with a second-quarter growth of 5% [2][10] - The nominal GDP is affected by deflation, but actual GDP meets targets, indicating limited short-term policy shifts [2][10] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Drivers**: - Growth in the first half was primarily driven by export surges and proactive fiscal policies, including local debt swaps and social welfare spending [2][10] - However, growth showed signs of slowing in June, prompting a focus on quarterly reports rather than monthly data [2][10] - **U.S. Market Performance**: - The U.S. financial market, particularly the stock market, has been performing strongly, with oil prices down 20% year-on-year, reducing inflationary pressures [4][19] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates, with potential cuts anticipated in the following years [4][19] - **Stablecoin Development**: - Beijing is increasingly focused on the development of stablecoins to reduce reliance on the SWIFT dollar system, with Hong Kong testing a stablecoin pilot [5][7] - The aim is to enhance financial autonomy and facilitate cross-border trade settlements [5][7] - **Programmable Payments**: - Programmable payments are applicable in various scenarios, including resource exports and supply chain payments, particularly in the context of China's dominance in the rare earth market [8][9] Important but Overlooked Content - **Real Estate Market Trends**: - The Hong Kong residential market is showing signs of stabilization, with prices expected to remain flat in 2025 after a significant drop in previous years [28][29] - Factors supporting this recovery include rising rents, improved affordability, and reduced land supply [29][30] - **Investment Potential**: - Companies like Henderson Land and Sun Hung Kai Properties are viewed as having strong investment potential due to their solid performance and strategic positioning [31] - Conversely, New World Development and Wharf Holdings are viewed with caution due to financial challenges and cash flow issues [32] - **Global Rare Earth Supply Chain**: - The global rare earth supply chain is expected to gradually detach from Chinese control, with new projects emerging in various countries by 2030 [21][22] - China has implemented strict controls on rare earth technology exports, impacting the ability of foreign firms to replicate production capabilities [22][23] - **Future Economic Outlook**: - The third quarter of 2025 may see increased downward pressure on GDP growth, potentially falling below 4.5% [17][18] - The upcoming political bureau meeting is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with new policies likely to be introduced in the fall [2][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.

大摩宏观闭门会：政治局会议前瞻，稳定币解读及房地产市场更新 20250630 发言人 00:00 发言人 00:09 大家上午好，欢迎来到 1 周一度的大模宏观策略谈，我是罗丙邢志强。大家肯定很关注接下来七月份有 政治局会议对下半年的经济政策定调，会不会有一些新的调整变化。我从昨天开始，周末就到了北京， 这周也会参加一些闭门研讨。我想现在各个部委、各个智库、各个体制内都在紧锣密鼓的分析经济形势 为决策层供稿谏言准备一些政策选项。我今天和我们团队的三位主讲嘉宾，包括蔡志鹏博士经济学家， 包括张磊，我们大宗商品和战略原材料行业的主管，以及安全我们香港房地产的分析师一起会聚焦四个 问题。第一点就是政治局会议对下半年经济政策节奏和空间的判断。第二点则是最近把中美博弈的因素 扩展到货币结算体系，包括人民币稳定币以及稀土这张牌中国接下来会怎么打？其实稀土小院高墙这张 牌跟稳定币人民币的贸易结算之间是有互相促进的可能性，我们会做一些探讨和分析。 发言人 01:40 这里面尽管今天 lao ra 我们的首席策略是由于在休假错过一周，但我们也会简单的涉及到一点，从过 去三四个月我们讲到的东稳西大，就美国的各种政策不确定性带来的 ...

好 那我们开始倒数5 4大家上午好欢迎来到一周一度的大模宏观策略谈我是Robin邢思强那么大家肯定很关注接下来7月份有政治局会议对下半年的经济政策定调会不会有一些新的调整变化 我从昨天开始周末就到了北京这周也会参加一些闭门研讨我想现在各个部委各个智库各个体制内都在紧锣密鼓地分析经济形势为决策层供告建言准备一些政策选项 我今天和我们团队的三位主讲嘉宾包括蔡志鹏博士经济学家包括张磊我们大宗商品和战略原材料行业的主管以及Anson我们香港房地产的分析师一起会聚焦四个问题第一点就是政治局会议对下半年经济政策节奏和空间的判断第二点则是最近把中美博弈的因素扩展到 货币结算体系包括人民币稳定币以及稀土这张牌中国接下来会怎么打其实稀土小院高墙这张牌跟稳定币人民币的贸易结算之间是有互相促进的可能性我们会做一些探讨和分析这里面尽管今天Laura我们的首席策略师由于在休假错过一周但我们也会简单的涉及到一点 从过去三四个月我们讲到的东稳西大就美国的各种政策不确定性带来的对未来长线美元资产和美国经济例外论的趋美退波但是短线来讲最近美国金融市场特别是美股似乎在不断的收复失地震荡中创出新高怎么看那我来抛砖引玉吧长话短说首先还是从政治局会议 ...

今日关注 1、中共中央政治局6月30日召开会议，审议《党中央决策议事协调机构工作条例》。会议指出，制定出 台《党中央决策议事协调机构工作条例》，进一步规范党中央决策议事协调机构的设立、职责和运行， 对于发挥好对重大工作的顶层设计、统筹协调、整体推进、督促落实职能作用，具有重要意义。 2、6月30日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。毛宁表示，有条件恢复符合中方规准的日本部分地区 水产品进口。中方主管部门将继续强化监管措施，保障人民群众的食品安全。一旦发现任何风险，将立 即依法采取必要的进口限制措施。 宏观经济 1、6月30日，国家统计局发布最新数据，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升 0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 投资要闻 1、财政部、税务总局、商务部发布关于境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵免政策的公告，境外投 资者以中国境内居民企业分配的利润，在2025年1月1日至2028年12月31日期间用于境内直接投资符合条 件的，可按照投资额的10%抵免境外投资者当年的应纳税额，当年不足抵免的准予向以后结转。 2、国家外汇管理局日前已向部分符合条件的合格境内机构投资者（QDII） ...

Economic Indicators - In June, China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7%, respectively, showing an increase of 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The steel industry PMI in June was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of decline [12] - The top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales of 183.64 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% [12] Market Performance - The A-share market showed resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.8% year-to-date, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both increased around 0.5% [3] - The Hong Kong market performed well, with the Hang Seng Index up 20% year-to-date, ranking third among major global indices [3] - In the first half of 2025, 163 public fund institutions conducted research on 1,943 A-share listed companies, with a total of 40,093 research instances [8] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Commerce announced a tax credit policy for foreign investors using profits from domestic companies for direct investment in China, allowing a 10% tax credit on the investment amount [2] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange released standards for "light asset, high R&D investment" recognition for companies, allowing over 200 companies in strategic emerging industries to have more flexible financing options [2] Corporate Actions - Citic Securities received approval to issue up to 30 billion yuan in perpetual subordinated bonds [10] - Longi Green Energy plans to raise 1.08 billion yuan for its high-efficiency monocrystalline battery project [10] - The Hong Kong-based New World Development secured a refinancing agreement covering approximately 88.2 billion Hong Kong dollars of existing unsecured financial debt [8]

Core Viewpoint - New World Development announced that Zheng Zhigang has resigned from his position as a non-executive director and non-executive vice chairman, effective July 1, 2025, to dedicate more time to public service and personal matters [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Resignation Details** - Zheng Zhigang's resignation is confirmed to be effective from July 1, 2025 [1] - There are no disagreements with the board and no matters related to the resignation that need to be disclosed to shareholders or the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1]

Core Viewpoint - New World Development has successfully secured refinancing for approximately HKD 88.2 billion of its existing unsecured offshore financial debt, which will aid in managing ongoing business and financial needs [1][3]. Group 1: Refinancing Details - The new bank financing includes multiple loans with varying maturities, the earliest of which is due on June 30, 2028 [1]. - The refinancing plan is one of the largest in Hong Kong's history, with a total of HKD 87.5 billion (approximately USD 11.1 billion) approved by all banks involved [3]. - If 100% approval is not obtained by June 30, the transaction may collapse, releasing any pledged assets and canceling bank commitments [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - New World Development reported a revenue of HKD 16.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and a core operating profit of HKD 4.416 billion, with a shareholder loss of HKD 6.633 billion [4]. - The company plans to continue selling non-core assets in the second half of the 2025 fiscal year to improve cash flow, with K11 Art Mall listed for potential sale at HKD 9 billion [4]. Group 3: Debt Situation - New World Development has a total borrowing exceeding HKD 151 billion, with a net debt ratio of 57.5%, and short-term debt exceeding HKD 32 billion, while holding only HKD 21.8 billion in cash [6][7]. - The company has faced liquidity challenges due to high leverage and market conditions, prompting management changes and strategic adjustments [6][7].