Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [6][9]. Core Views - The environmental sector's revenue in 2024 is projected to decline by 0.6% to CNY 364.236 billion, with net profit decreasing by 14.7% to CNY 23.058 billion. However, in Q1 2025, the sector is expected to see a revenue increase of 3.5% to CNY 81.243 billion and a net profit growth of 3.8% to CNY 8.232 billion [3][21]. - The report highlights the impact of the new market-oriented pricing reforms for renewable energy in Shandong, aiming for full market integration by the end of 2025 [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the carbon neutrality context, recommending investments in the new energy industry chain and comprehensive energy management [41][42]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.00%, while the public utility index increased by 2.22%, and the environmental index rose by 2.93% [1][43]. Important Policies and Events - Shandong's new pricing reform aims for full market integration of wind and solar energy by 2025, with differentiated policies for existing and new projects [2][16]. Financial Overview of the Environmental Sector - In 2024, only the solid waste management and water treatment sectors showed positive growth, while the environmental equipment sector saw a decline of over 30% [3][21]. - The atmospheric governance sector reported a loss increase, while the comprehensive environmental governance sector shifted from profit to loss [21][24]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and regional electricity firms like Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][41]. - The report suggests focusing on "utility-like investment opportunities" within the environmental sector, recommending companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [42][41]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Several companies, including Huadian International and Longyuan Power, are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 [9][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the collaboration between Qiaoyin Co. and Guodi Center to advance humanoid robot applications in urban services, marking a significant development in the industry [9] - It emphasizes that the solid waste sector is experiencing a decrease in capital expenditure, leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends, while also enhancing return on equity (ROE) through efficiency improvements in heating and IDC [10][12] - The water services sector is noted for its stable growth and high dividends, with water price reforms expected to reshape growth and valuation [12][14] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Development - Qiaoyin Co. has signed a cooperation agreement with Guodi Center to launch humanoid robots for urban services, with an initial order of 1,000 robots aimed at street cleaning and maintenance [9] Solid Waste Management - The report identifies two key trends: a reduction in capital expenditure leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends, and a focus on efficiency improvements as the industry matures [10] - Specific dividend forecasts for 2024 include: - Junxin Co.: cash dividend of 507 million yuan (+37%), dividend ratio of 94.59% (+22.78 percentage points), and a dividend yield of 4.4% - Green Power: cash dividend of 418 million yuan (+100%), dividend ratio of 71.45% (+38.23 percentage points), with A-share and Hong Kong stock dividend yields of 4.2% and 8.2% respectively - Hanlan Environment: proposed dividend of 652 million yuan (+67%), dividend ratio of 39.20% (+11.83 percentage points), and a dividend yield of 3.5% [10] Water Services - The water services sector is projected to see stable growth, with 2024 revenues of 65.5 billion yuan (-2%) and net profits of 11.2 billion yuan (+27%), excluding one-time gains [12] - Water price reforms in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are expected to drive a new round of price adjustments, enhancing profitability and stability [13][14] Industry Trends - The report notes a 51% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, with penetration rates rising to 14.36% [29] - The bio-diesel market is experiencing a decline in prices for both bio-diesel and waste oil, leading to a narrowing price gap [36] - The lithium battery recycling sector is facing slight declines in profitability due to fluctuating metal prices and discount coefficients [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector and the environmental sector [7] Core Insights - The environmental performance exceeded expectations, and the profitability of thermal power is expected to improve due to declining coal prices [2][3] - The cash flow for environmental companies is anticipated to continue improving, supported by debt reduction policies emphasized in the recent political meetings [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The decline in coal prices has led to a significant increase in the net profit of thermal power companies, with a median year-on-year growth of 145% in Q4 2024, surpassing previous forecasts [12] - The expected net profit growth for thermal power companies in 2025 is projected at 5%, with market expectations for several companies being adjusted downwards by 10-20% since March 1, 2025 [15][18] Hydropower - The hydropower sector experienced a median year-on-year net profit decline of 58% in Q4 2024, but a recovery is expected with a 26% growth in Q1 2025 [24][25] - The market consensus for the net profit growth of hydropower companies in 2025 is set at 13%, with slight downward adjustments in expectations for several companies [26] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's net profit growth was below expectations, with a median year-on-year growth of -30% in Q4 2024, but a slight recovery to 1% in Q1 2025 is anticipated [20] - The cash flow situation for renewable energy companies has shown improvement, with many companies reporting positive operating cash flow in 2024 [22][23] Natural Gas - The natural gas supply-demand balance has shifted to a relatively loose state, impacting profitability negatively, with a median net profit growth forecast for gas companies being adjusted downwards by 3% since March 1, 2025 [4] Environmental Sector - The environmental companies reported a higher-than-expected net profit in Q1 2025, benefiting from improved cash flow due to debt reduction policies [5] - The operating cash flow for environmental companies increased by 18% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a positive trend in financial health [5][22]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 公用环保 2025 年 5 月投资策略 优于大市 国常会核准 10 台核电机组，广州中心城区自来水价 6 月 1 日上调 风险提示：环保政策不及预期；用电量增速下滑；电价下调；竞争加剧 核心观点 行业研究·行业月报 公用事业 优于大市·维持 证券分析师：黄秀杰 证券分析师：郑汉林 huangxiujie@guosen.com.cn zhenghanlin@guosen.com.cn 专题研究：近期自来水调价城市梳理。随着我国经济不断发展，水资源需 求激增，而供水成本亦因设施老化与水质提升工程而大幅攀升。据不完 全统计，除近期宣布调整的广州和深圳外，全国亦有 20 余个城市地区 自 2024 年起相继对水价进行了调整，旨在平衡资源稀缺性、供水成本 与企业运营压力，推动水务行业健康发展，在本周的专题研究中，我们 对这部分城市的调价情况进行了梳理。 投资策略：公用事业：1.煤价电价同步下行，火电盈利有望维持合理水 平，推荐全国大型火电企业华电国际以及区域电价较为坚挺的上海电 力；2.国家持续出台政策支持新能源发展，新能源发电盈利有望逐步趋 于稳健，推荐全国性新能源发电龙头企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the fifth batch of national public open units for environmental facilities and urban sewage and waste treatment facilities by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment marks a significant milestone for the company, showcasing its commitment to environmental responsibility and the "Two Mountains" concept [1] Group 1: Company Achievements - The company has successfully included 18 environmental projects in the national public open unit list, reflecting its dedication to the "open sharing" philosophy and its role as a leading environmental enterprise in China [1][2] - Since the second half of 2018, the company has opened 226 projects to the public, receiving approximately 220,000 visitors over three years, making it the earliest and largest enterprise in China to open environmental facilities to the public [2] - The "Urban Living Room" waste-to-energy project in Changzhou, Jiangsu, has been recognized as one of the "Top Ten National Environmental Facility Open Units," receiving high praise from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment [2] Group 2: Project Details - The 18 projects included in the latest public open unit list are as follows: 1. Tianjin Xiqing Waste-to-Energy Project 2. Hebei Zhangjiakou Waste-to-Energy Project 3. Heilongjiang Harbin Waste-to-Energy Project 4. Jiangsu Yixing Waste-to-Energy Project 5. Jiangsu Suzhou Waste-to-Energy Project 6. Jiangsu Rugao Biomass Direct Combustion Project 7. Jiangsu Danyang Waste-to-Energy Project 8. Zhejiang Ninghai Waste-to-Energy Project 9. Zhejiang Shengzhou Waste-to-Energy Project 10. Jiangxi Jiujiang Waste-to-Energy Project 11. Shandong Zhucheng Waste-to-Energy Project 12. Shandong Dongping Waste-to-Energy Project 13. Shandong Binzhou Development Zone Sewage Treatment Project 14. Henan Nanyang Waste-to-Energy Project 15. Henan Xinyang Waste-to-Energy Project 16. Henan Taikang Waste-to-Energy Project 17. Hunan Xiangtan Waste-to-Energy Project 18. Hunan Shaoyang Waste-to-Energy Project [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector [11] Core Insights - The environmental sector's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 6.6% in 2024 and increase by 3.9% in Q1 2025, with solid performance in waste incineration and water services [2][6] - The sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 305.7 billion, a slight decrease of 0.44% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 20.9 billion, down 11.1% [6][22] - The report highlights the improvement in free cash flow for waste incineration and water services, indicating a potential for higher dividends in the future [8][9] Summary by Sections Profit and Loss Statement - In 2024, the environmental sector is expected to achieve a revenue of 3057 billion, with a net profit of 209 billion, reflecting a decline of 11.1% year-on-year [6][22] - The sector's gross margin is projected to be 27.5%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points compared to the previous year [6][22] Balance Sheet - The environmental sector's debt ratio is expected to stabilize at 57.17%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Accounts receivable as a percentage of revenue is projected to increase by 7.0 percentage points to 62.8% in 2024, indicating pressure on local government finances [7] Cash Flow Statement - The cash collection ratio for the environmental sector is expected to be 91.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The free cash flow for the sector is projected to be 2.1 billion, an increase of 10.5 billion year-on-year, with significant improvements in waste incineration and water services [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a moderately optimistic outlook for the sector, driven by market reforms and the "14th Five-Year Plan" assessment year, which may enhance cash flow and valuation recovery [9] - Key investment targets include companies in waste incineration and water services, such as Huaneng Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Weiming Environmental [9]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the solid waste management industry, particularly focusing on the integration of waste incineration and IDC (Internet Data Center) projects, emphasizing the potential for efficiency improvements and enhanced return on equity (ROE) through market reforms and pricing adjustments [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Valuation and ROE Potential**: The solid waste management sector, particularly through IDC initiatives, has the potential to double its ROE, with reference to international leaders like Waste Management (WM) achieving ROE of over 30%, a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33x, and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 11x [1]. - **Zero Carbon Projects**: The combination of waste incineration and IDC is positioned as a solution for ultra-low Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) zero carbon projects, highlighting advantages such as cleanliness, efficiency, stability, and economic viability, especially in urban centers [1]. - **Profitability Models**: Different operational models (pure energy supply, energy supply with cabinet leasing, and energy supply with computing power leasing) show significant profitability elasticity, with potential increases in ROE from 12% to 16%, 15%, and 18% respectively [1]. - **Operational Scale and Location**: Companies like Yongxing, Junxin, and others have a high percentage of their operations meeting the scale and location requirements for effective waste management and IDC integration [1]. Financial Highlights - **Increased Cash Flow and Dividends**: The industry is entering a mature phase with declining capital expenditures, leading to positive free cash flow in 2023 and continued growth in 2024. Companies are significantly increasing their dividends, with notable examples including: - Green Power: Cash dividend of 418 million yuan (+100%), dividend payout ratio of 71.45% [2]. - Hanlan Environment: Dividend of 0.8 yuan per share (+67%), payout ratio of 39.20% [2]. - Junxin Co.: Dividend payout ratio of 95% (+23%) with a commitment to maintain a minimum of 50% [2]. - Yongxing Co.: Cash dividend of 540 million yuan (+15%), payout ratio of 65.81% [2]. - Other companies also reported significant increases in dividends and payout ratios, indicating a strong trend towards returning value to shareholders [2]. Additional Insights - **Policy Impact**: The push for metered charging in waste management is expected to streamline commercial models and improve cash flow, further supporting the financial health of companies in the sector [2]. - **Long-term Dividend Commitments**: Several companies have made long-term commitments to maintain or increase dividend payouts, indicating confidence in future cash flows and profitability [2]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the solid waste management industry's growth potential, financial performance, and strategic direction.

Core Viewpoint - The rural waste management market in China is expanding due to increasing waste generation, with a per capita daily waste production of 0.86 kg, growing faster than urban areas. The market size reached 302.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.19% [1][13]. Industry Overview - Rural waste management involves the classification, collection, transportation, and disposal of waste generated by rural residents, aiming for reduction, resource recovery, and harmless treatment. The main model is "household classification, village collection, town transportation, county processing," but some areas still rely on simple landfilling or open burning, leading to secondary pollution [2][5]. Industry Development History - The industry has evolved through four stages: 1. Self-consumption period before 2003, where waste was managed naturally [5]. 2. Governance initiation from 2003 to 2007, with the introduction of centralized waste management [5][6]. 3. Pilot promotion from 2008 to 2014, where waste classification began to be implemented [6]. 4. Special governance period from 2015 onwards, with systematic deployment of rural waste management strategies [6]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the rural waste management industry includes waste generation, waste treatment equipment, and technology research and services. The midstream involves waste processing, while the downstream applications include environmental protection, energy, and agriculture [8]. Market Size - The rural waste management market is driven by the increasing waste generation and supportive government policies. The market size in 2024 is projected at 302.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.19% [1][13]. Key Enterprises - Leading companies in the rural waste management sector include: - **Huanlan Environment**: Offers integrated waste management solutions and operates numerous waste-to-energy projects [15][17]. - **Fuchun Environmental**: Focuses on waste-to-energy projects, effectively addressing rural waste issues [19]. - **China Everbright International**: Engages in various waste management sectors, promoting standardized and professional development [17]. - **Weili Environmental**: Specializes in leachate treatment and landfill restoration, contributing to rural ecological improvements [17]. Industry Development Trends 1. **Technological Upgrades and Resource Utilization**: The industry is moving towards more environmentally friendly and efficient circular economy practices, with waste-to-energy and resource recovery becoming mainstream [21]. 2. **Diversified Operation Models and Market Transformation**: The shift from government-led to multi-stakeholder management is expected, with increased participation from social capital [22]. 3. **Full-Chain Control and Digital Transformation**: Emphasis on comprehensive management from waste generation to processing, utilizing digital tools for improved efficiency and quality [23].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive movement with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.51%, setting expectations for May's market performance [1] - In the U.S., the trade deficit reached a record $162 billion in March, significantly exceeding economists' forecasts of $145 billion, driven by a 5% increase in imports [1] - Retailers in the U.S. are expected to face inventory shortages in the coming weeks, which may impact consumer shopping choices [1] Trade Relations - The U.S. government has reportedly made progress in trade negotiations, with a potential agreement expected to be finalized soon [1] - The Chinese government has denied any ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs, maintaining a firm stance [2] Automotive Industry - President Trump signed an executive order on April 30 to soften certain auto tariffs, which has led to a resurgence of price competition in the automotive market [3] - Multiple car manufacturers have introduced various discount policies to capture market demand ahead of the May holiday [3] Banking Sector - The banking sector experienced a collective adjustment, with only Agricultural Bank and Bank of Communications reporting year-on-year profit growth in Q1 [4] - Major banks reported slight declines in net profits, attributed to factors such as bond market conditions and narrowing net interest margins [4] Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly in AI, is gaining momentum, with significant stock price increases for companies involved in AI and related technologies [5] - Companies like Kingsoft Cloud and Meitu have seen substantial stock price increases, reflecting investor interest in AI advancements [5] Environmental Initiatives - The Ministry of Water Resources in China is launching a year-long initiative to enhance ecological protection in the Yellow River basin, which is expected to stimulate the environmental protection industry [7] - Key companies in the environmental sector include China Everbright Environment and Beijing Enterprises Water Group [7] Robotics and Automation - UBTECH Robotics has signed a global first contract for small-batch humanoid robots, marking a significant milestone in the robotics industry [8] - The demand for humanoid robots in the automotive sector is projected to grow significantly by 2025 and 2030, positioning UBTECH as a key player in this market [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The public utility market reform is progressing, which is beneficial for industry profitability and cash flow improvement. The report highlights a valuation recovery logic and is optimistic about quality targets in the waste incineration, water, and gas sectors [2][9] Summary by Sections Event Description - On April 29, 2025, the Guangzhou Development and Reform Commission announced a water price reform, effective June 1, with the first, second, and third tier prices set at 2.55, 3.82, and 7.65 yuan per cubic meter respectively [4] Event Commentary - The report emphasizes the necessity of price adjustments due to rising operational costs for water supply companies, which have seen losses increase from -447 million yuan in 2020 to -653 million yuan in 2022. The price adjustments reflect a balance between profitability and public affordability, with increases of 28.8%, 28.6%, and 93.2% for the respective tiers [9] - Shenzhen is also moving forward with water price adjustments, indicating a broader trend in public utility reforms [9] Market Trends - The report notes that major cities are implementing or considering water price adjustments, which will enhance the profitability of water companies. The waste incineration sector is also expected to benefit from new revenue models and fee structures, while gas pricing reforms are anticipated to improve margins for city gas companies [9] - The report recommends several companies in the waste incineration, water, and gas sectors, including Hanlan Environment, Weiming Environmental, and China Gas, as quality investment targets [9]